Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rolling]

Looks like the bitcoin manipulators are trying to take advantage of the oil drama.

[1715550047]

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[1715550047]

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[fillippone]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

[Arriemoller]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

Dammit.
Ok I can wait a month for cheap gas.

[bitserve]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

I don't really understand any of this. Who, if anyone, can buy oil at those extremely low and even negative prices? What does it mean?

[willope]

Sooo, anyone knows on whitch platform can I buy WTI oil?

You cant, it's a futures contract. If you buy now, you physically need to go and get the oil. That's why the crash happened and people were closing positions.

The next futures that expires trades at around 20$ currently, but this freefall will probably affect that one too. Whoever is currently holding an oil futures contract is playing a dangerous game.

It may be dangerous, but it would be fun to buy at least a few futures at negative price so one day I could tell my grandchildren that I was there, I was part of the game.

[Toxic2040]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

I guess there are some places in the US where its under $1 a gallon again...think we could see more of that.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/gas-prices-average-drop-kentucky-station-us/

Kentucky was the first state in the US to see fuel prices drop under $1 per gallon, and the lowest price continues to flip between Kentucky and Ohio. On April 20, Ohio is once again how to the cheapest gas at just 91 cents per gallon.

Drivers haven't seen 99 cent gas since 2002, when travelers began to take fewer trips and stayed closer to home following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Come 2003, fuel prices started to rise after the US invaded Iraq.

[jbreher]

More dumpster fires:

https://www.coindesk.com/attacker-drains-decentralized-protocol-dforce-of-25m-in-weekend-attack

Isn't recursive withdrawals -- without balance updating -- the exact mechanism that the original DAO hack incurred, leading to the fork off the Ethereum protocol?

A weekend hack drained funds from a popular decentralized finance application, Ethereum incubator ConsenSys is laying off about 90 employees and bitcoin ATMs are seeing growth during the coronavirus contagion event. Here's the story:

DeFi Disaster
Decentralized finance protocol dForce is insolvent following a late-night weekend exploit. While the perpetrator is unknown, the hack exploited a known vulnerability of the ERC-777 standard. Due to the way dForce lending program Lendf.Me’s smart contract is set up, the hacker was able to continually withdraw funds without the program’s balance updating, eventually scoring 99 percent of the assets – more than $25 million – locked within. The Multicoin Capital-backed dForce had been accused of cribbing code from competing application Compound.

The hackers allegedly returned $126,014 back to Lendf.Me with a note saying, "Better luck next time," according to Chain News.

[xhomerx10]

Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×10⁹ J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH


 6.1178632×10⁹ J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J

 3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH

 How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?

 The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(2³²D), where D is difficulty
 currently D = 13,912,524,048,946

 So, 91,767,948,163.5x10¹²H x 1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/Block
 
 = 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)

 = 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC

 Wow.  I thought it would have been much more.  
 We're killing the planet!!

er, maybe a different number (or not).
one barrel is 1700kwh, calculate from there considering that S17+ is 2.8kw

 
 You guys really like putting me to work don't you.

  you have 1700kWh/bbl X 600bbl
 = 1020000 kWh
 
 The S17 requires 2.8 kW so it can hash for 1020000kWh / 2.8kW
 = 364285.71428571428571428571428571 hr
 
  There would be too many difficulty changes in that amount of time.  Let's go big and say we're mining with a thousand S17s

  So we can mine for 364.28571428571428571428571428571 hours with a thousand S17s before we run out of oil. 

  I'll assume you're talking about the 56TH/s model.

  1000 S17s x 364.28571428571428571428571428571 hr x (3600 s/hr) x 56x10¹² h/s/S17 =

  73439999999999999999999.999999999 h

 Probability of finding a block per hash is  1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/h
 
  73439999999999999999999.999999999 h x 1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/h
 
  =1.2290424375752001863442788439533 blocks (12.5 BTC per block)

  =15.363030469690002329303485549416 BTC

  Even worse!  How dare we!!

[bitserve]

Sooo, anyone knows on whitch platform can I buy WTI oil?

You cant, it's a futures contract. If you buy now, you physically need to go and get the oil. That's why the crash happened and people were closing positions.

The next futures that expires trades at around 20$ currently, but this freefall will probably affect that one too. Whoever is currently holding an oil futures contract is playing a dangerous game.

It may be dangerous, but it would be fun to buy at least a few futures at negative price so one day I could tell my grandchildren that I was there, I was part of the game.

I wonder how much you can buy of that oil at negative rates with say $10 (yeah, a solid positive ten fucking bucks!).

[Ibian]

Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×10⁹ J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH


 6.1178632×10⁹ J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J

 3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH

 How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?

 The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(2³²D), where D is difficulty
 currently D = 13,912,524,048,946

 So, 91,767,948,163.5x10¹²H x 1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/Block
 
 = 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)

 = 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC

 Wow.  I thought it would have been much more.  
 We're killing the planet!!

We're about to mine BTC900/day so that's 46.8821223895886 barrels per day, that's probably less than heating costs for one bank

Ummm?

It looks like about 390 barrels per block if the above numbers are correct. Even after the halving, this won't change unless the difficulty goes up. If we mined on oil, that would be 56,160 barrels per day.

I think the vast majority of bitcoin is mined on cheap renewable energy like hydro or thermal though.

It's mined on electricity.

[fillippone]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

I don't really understand any of this. Who, if anyone, can buy oil at those extremely low and even negative prices? What does it mean?

There are several reasons for this.
First of all, the move is due to the future of May, which will stop trading tomorrow.
From Thursday the oil will trade at the June expiration and the price will return to being more "normal" level around 22 dollars.
As mentioned all oil related products (gas, heating oil etc) are already priced on Jun expiry.

But why May contract has dropped so much?

1. The WTI has a single delivery point in Cushing (OK). All the deposits in Cushing are full, so nobody wants to "buy" oil in that location, because the cost of storage is very high.So nobody want to buy May expiry.
2. There are many "financial speculators", that is, subjects who do not want/can in any case get physical oil delivered in Cushing. This causes the fact that these subjects must necessarily close the position before the expiry of the future and therefore are forced to "sell" the future forcibly. so something like a  Long Squeeze.
3. Who are those longs? Apparently Oil ETF’s saw the biggest inflows in history during last week., both in linear and in leveraged flavours. This caused a MASSIVE long positions in front months. So this answer the above: who needed to roll their position selling May futures to buy Jun?
4. The June expiration future has an greater open interest and much larger volumes, so this one is more difficult to move with "few volumes" and in fact has fallen much less.

[Biodom]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

Texas railroad commish will probably announce pumping reduction today (at least I would expect it), maybe June would even increase first, but K. Bass (hedge fund manager) was on CNBC just now and predicted that June's would be creamed in time as well.

In addition, he blasted USO (and SEC being asleep at the wheel with that fund). People who are buying USO think that they are actually buying oil when they were buying futures, essentially, which are being creamed now.

I worry about btc futures affect on the spot.
I would also predict (in opposite to most expectations) that gold would be pummeled down soon too.
Everything goes.

[xhomerx10]

Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×10⁹ J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH


 6.1178632×10⁹ J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J

 3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH

 How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?

 The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(2³²D), where D is difficulty
 currently D = 13,912,524,048,946

 So, 91,767,948,163.5x10¹²H x 1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/Block
 
 = 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)

 = 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC

 Wow.  I thought it would have been much more.  
 We're killing the planet!!

We're about to mine BTC900/day so that's 46.8821223895886 barrels per day, that's probably less than heating costs for one bank

Ummm?

It looks like about 390 barrels per block if the above numbers are correct. Even after the halving, this won't change unless the difficulty goes up. If we mined on oil, that would be 56,160 barrels per day.

I think the vast majority of bitcoin is mined on cheap renewable energy like hydro or thermal though.

It's mined on electricity.

 Thank god for the law of conservation of energy.  (or at least thank Gabrielle Emilie Le Tonnelier de Breteuil)

[bitserve]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

I don't really understand any of this. Who, if anyone, can buy oil at those extremely low and even negative prices? What does it mean?

There are several reasons for this.
First of all, the move is due to the future of May, which will stop trading tomorrow.
From Thursday the oil will trade at the June expiration and the price will return to being more "normal" level around 22 dollars.
As mentioned all oil related products (gas, heating oil etc) are already priced on Jun expiry.

But why May contract has dropped so much?

1. The WTI has a single delivery point in Cushing (OK). All the deposits in Cushing are full, so nobody wants to "buy" oil in that location, because the cost of storage is very high.So nobody want to buy May expiry.
2. There are many "financial speculators", that is, subjects who do not want/can in any case get physical oil delivered in Cushing. This causes the fact that these subjects must necessarily close the position before the expiry of the future and therefore are forced to "sell" the future forcibly. so something like a  Long Squeeze
3. The June expiration future has an greater open interest and much larger volumes, so this one is more difficult to move with "few volumes" and in fact has fallen much less.

That makes a lot of sense, thanks.

So, if I were to buy one of those contracts I would be forced to pay for the storage (which probably exceeds the value of the oil at this time) because that is on the contract. I mean, otherwise I could just buy a bunch of those contracts, pocket the negative difference and just default on the delivery.

[Biodom]

Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×10⁹ J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH


 6.1178632×10⁹ J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J

 3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH

 How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?

 The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(2³²D), where D is difficulty
 currently D = 13,912,524,048,946

 So, 91,767,948,163.5x10¹²H x 1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/Block
 
 = 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)

 = 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC

 Wow.  I thought it would have been much more.  
 We're killing the planet!!

We're about to mine BTC900/day so that's 46.8821223895886 barrels per day, that's probably less than heating costs for one bank

Ummm?

It looks like about 390 barrels per block if the above numbers are correct. Even after the halving, this won't change unless the difficulty goes up. If we mined on oil, that would be 56,160 barrels per day.

I think the vast majority of bitcoin is mined on cheap renewable energy like hydro or thermal though.

It's mined on electricity.

 Thank god for the law of conservation of energy.  (or at least thank Gabrielle Emilie Le Tonnelier de Breteuil)

right, but not all of oil heat producing (thermal) energy is being converted to electricity.
Some is lost as heat.

[fillippone]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

I don't really understand any of this. Who, if anyone, can buy oil at those extremely low and even negative prices? What does it mean?

There are several reasons for this.
First of all, the move is due to the future of May, which will stop trading tomorrow.
From Thursday the oil will trade at the June expiration and the price will return to being more "normal" level around 22 dollars.
As mentioned all oil related products (gas, heating oil etc) are already priced on Jun expiry.

But why May contract has dropped so much?

1. The WTI has a single delivery point in Cushing (OK). All the deposits in Cushing are full, so nobody wants to "buy" oil in that location, because the cost of storage is very high.So nobody want to buy May expiry.
2. There are many "financial speculators", that is, subjects who do not want/can in any case get physical oil delivered in Cushing. This causes the fact that these subjects must necessarily close the position before the expiry of the future and therefore are forced to "sell" the future forcibly. so something like a  Long Squeeze
3. The June expiration future has an greater open interest and much larger volumes, so this one is more difficult to move with "few volumes" and in fact has fallen much less.

That makes a lot of sense, thanks.

So, if I were to buy one of those contracts I would be forced to pay for the storage (which probably exceeds the value of the oil at this time) because that is on the contract. I mean, otherwise I could just buy a bunch of those contracts, pocket the negative difference and just default on the delivery.

Not that easy.
Buying contracts means you have to post huge margins to avoid this exact feature.

[lightfoot]

So, if I were to buy one of those contracts I would be forced to pay for the storage (which probably exceeds the value of the oil at this time) because that is on the contract. I mean, otherwise I could just buy a bunch of those contracts, pocket the negative difference and just default on the delivery.

Can't default and they will dump it in your yard.

[rolling]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

I don't really understand any of this. Who, if anyone, can buy oil at those extremely low and even negative prices? What does it mean?

One oil future contract obligates the buyer/holder to buy 1000 barrels of oil for delivery during the month of May. That is, whoever holds it at the end of the trading period.

The oil producer creates the contracts and people trade them. The producer might have written the contract at $20 per barrel last month to lock in the price. Since then, the contracts have been traded around, the producer already pocketed the $20 per barrel though.

The person holding the contract today, had to pay someone to unload it (negative price) because they don't have the ability to take delivery. The producer doesn't care who takes delivery, they already got paid when they wrote the contract. I guess they could have bought their own contracts and delivered to themselves at a profit but that would require them to shut down production which is expensive.

The traders effectively paid someone $40,000 per 1000 barrel contract to get it off their account. Not including whatever they lost on the way down.

[Last of the V8s]

[lightfoot]

So driving my gas guzzling supercar at 130mph is a patriotic duty?