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You can trade the market without predicting it. You say 'I'm going to enter here, exit here, and stop loss here'. If the risk with your stop loss is much less than the reward of your exit, then you only need a low probability of being correct.
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I'm not saying there is necessarily causation, but there seems to be correlation. Any thoughts on this?  Forget OKCoin. Forget Huobi. This is the show to watch. |
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If you are a trader then letting people make speculation threads should be encouraged. It will show you what the current mood of the market is more or less. Before the sell down it was crossing the border to mania with some people starting to predict another all time how with predictions that reach $3000. For the very long term it might be possible, but in reality with the current state of the Bitcoin economy a real, non-speculative price of $3000 is not possible right now. Reaching that price in 2017 will surely be another bubble waiting to pop.
$3000 could be reached at the drop of a hat. In Bitcoin, you never know. If Bitcoin gets integrated with the stock/forex exchange and everyone can suddenly buy it with their broker, it might go to $10,000+ |
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I thought what I said was very logical. Until Bitcoin is actually banned in China, there will always be room for some story about it getting banned. I suppose the alternative would be for China to officially endorse Bitcoin, but that would be even less likely to happen.
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Rumor can easily trigger a trading event that was going to happen anyway, like a correction after a rally.
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We're going to keep hearing "Chiba bans Bitcoin" until they actually do.
And then realize they can't. Sure you can have romanticized thoughts about how Bitcoin is impervious to the government with current technology but the reality is the Chinese government has many ways in which they could basically decimate the level of Bitcoin usage in China: 1. Shut down exchanges and stop all Bitcoin relared wire transfers from banks. 2. Firewall all Bitcoin sites, flag all Bitcoin software as malware in operating systems, firewall tor exit nodes, don't route bitcoin traffic, stop postal shipments from wallet vendors, etc. Only the most sophisticated hackers will still be able to use bitcoin. 3. Pass laws against bitcoin use with penalties of jail and fines. The Chinese are very obedient and fearful of their government and will comply. |
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We're going to keep hearing "Chiba bans Bitcoin" until they actually do.
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I could see the next ATH being preceeded by something like a "Silk Road Flash Crash" to $400 where China completely outlaws Bitcoin and all the Chinese exchanges shut down but then BTC bounces all the way back to $700 anyway within days or weeks. I'm not saying it's going to happen but it would be amusing.
I personally think that you are giving the Chinese quite a bit more credit than they deserve, and I don't really believe that they have as much market mover power as you are making them out to have (though I will concede that reasonable people can differ on this point and still be reasonable, so I am not necessarily asserting that you are being unreasonable in your belief and assertion). You don't fully understand the meaning of this. The point of the silk road crash was that it recovered and proved that Silk Road was not significant like people thought. They were finally ready to go the moon once Silk Road was completely behind them. |
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I could see the next ATH being preceeded by something like a "Silk Road Flash Crash" to $400 where China completely outlaws Bitcoin and all the Chinese exchanges shut down but then BTC bounces all the way back to $700 anyway within days or weeks. I'm not saying it's going to happen but it would be amusing.
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Bitfinex has lost 60% of its bid depth since last night.
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That was one hell of a 1 minute candle going up 100 yuan.
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What's funny is this thread was created at a price still below the current price.
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Btc corrections after a multi week rally are typically violent and steep. This is nothing. I called this yesterday. It's still pretty bullish at this level. You can start worrying of it goes below 650.
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that bitfinex maintenance surely was planned to worsen the dump
O shady crypto world
anyone still operating there is asking for it. A bit like good ol gox. The signs were there months ahead. I get what you are saying, in terms of "signs," and really there had been "signs" of Bitfinex shenanigans for at least a year before the August 2, "hack". So, even though kind of like Gox, this whole bitfinex matter seems to be a whole-hell-of-a-lot more sophisticated and tricky, as compared with Gox.. Similar, but different. Whether they are going to run away with the money or not still seems to be a question, even though some people like to describe the whole situation as a "when" question rather than an "if" question. Personally, I don't really know. I do have some BFX coin tied up with them that I don't really want to cash out and likely lock in a more than 40% loss of that (based on current BFX prices), but surely, if the signs seems strong enough, it may be worth it to completely pull out of there. Since the BFX hack had taken place, I had made several BTC withdrawals, and a few BTC deposits. Overall, my Bitfinex exposure was not really very big (even before the alleged "hack"), and currently, my exposure is a bit smaller than it had been. Since there are some of these goofy and apparent warning signs coming from Bitfinex, I may be somewhat in agreement that it could be prudent for me to lessen my Bitfinex exposure even more.. I am still a bit in the air about the level of prudence that I personally deem to be fitting to my circumstances (which includes my consideration of the risks that I am taking and how much risk I am willing to tolerate, even while there are admittedly "signs") I saw signs on Bitfinex and got all my capital out just days before the hack. There were things like the site going down and withdrawals getting stuck and having to contact support. Also they would openly argue with their customers on this forum and reveal things like the customers account balance. |
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All of these dumb Chinese exchanges with the fake volume like Huobi, okcoin, and now especially BTCC could be directly responsible for this if the regulators looked at their volume and thought that suddenly trillions of Yuan were actually leaving the country.
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Guess which news is nowhere to be seen on BullDesk
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even if this bit of news turns out to be bullshit, it's inevitable it's gonna happen at some point even though this capital flight talk has zero basis in fact. no real chinese people are doing anything with it. it's bots, miners, traders and exchange owners.
the exchanges are where governments can do what they like to bitcoin. the maximalists can talk all they want about how bitcoin be unaffected, the overwhelming majority of its users will be.
that said china doesn't do much for bitcoin and it would be for the best if the government there clarified things once and for all.
Most Bitcoin utility is supported by major exchanges because nearly all Bitcoin merchants don't truly accept Bitcoin but interface with a service like Bit pay in order to accept fiat converted from Bitcoin, and the service gets its fiat liquidity from a major exchange. You can bet that all the parties involved from the merchants to the service to the exchanges keep their books with profits shown in fiat and they don't really give a crap about Bitcoin. What would be equally or more damaging is if governments passed laws preventing individual use. How many people will break the law in order to still use Bitcoin? A much smaller economy. |
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There's no real bitcoin usage or trading in China anyway, except the asic mining farms and some fake wash selling.
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So I should be expecting that test of $660 on Nov 9?
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2016 post-bitfinex hack is unique in that there is that there is now NO authoritative exchange to follow. There always used to be mtgox, bitfinex, bitstamp or something you could follow with a large USD volume, Now, all USD exchanges are trading very thin volume and all CNY exchanges are trading massive amounts of obviously fake volume with meaningless numbers. You can no longer pick out a market leader or use any kind of volume analysis. No order books, no walls, no volume, only price action. You just have to kind of blindly trust what is going on behind the scenes on the chain based on the candles. It is like trading Forex.
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