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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 27, 2014, 06:10:35 PM
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Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:
Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN
You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace. |
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666
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting
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on: June 26, 2014, 10:45:08 AM
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here comes the boom calm before the storm hang onto your hats traders drop in nearly all alts sharp rise in btc traders moving from alts to btc in anticipation of a huge rise care to speculate Usually the effect of the alts dropping is reactive rather than proactive. |
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668
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop talking about the damn SR coins - it is the LEAST significant price mover
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on: June 26, 2014, 08:42:50 AM
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Where did they get the 500k coins?
There are silkroad's coins, Ross's personal coins, and also the coins from some other dealer they arrested. It actually might be much more than 500k. Maybe 1M. Source? I thought it was 140,000 140,000 is just the site wallet for silkroad users. Then there is Ross's 400k and about 400k from that dealer which occured more recently. are you sure? isn't 30k going for sale now bitcoins from the site wallet and users and 140k is ross ulbricht personal stash? You know what - I'm not 100% sure. My apologies if it is incorrect. Whatever the total amount is, it is much bigger than 30K. I seem to recall hearing 'The government now owns 5% of bitcoins' somewhere. AFAIK the 30k is from the Silk Road and there is another other 140k that is from Ross Ulbricht. This is correct. TERA is just bear trolling like usual. You are the one trolling. This topic has no price prediction attached to it so what does it have to do with 'bear'? Maybe if you had mentioned some of the positive news stories from recent weeks then you would not be being accused of bear trolling, I can think of a few - and am sure there are more Expedia accepting bitcoin for hotel bookings - which means I can go the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow in August purely using BTC. Dish accepting Bitcoin (a while ago I admit) Apple allowing wallets back in the App store Ebay CEO comments on Bitcoin integration possibility with Paypal. California Bill that moves to make BTC a legal currency Coinbase move to allow merchants to offer discounts to those paying with BTC - as well as the top up functionality that allows users to automatically buy back the BTC they spend. The thread is not about summarizing all recent news events - it is specifically about the significance of the auction and the auction's overestimated relationship to the recent decline. |
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674
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Race to launch NY’s first regulated bitcoin exchange - 6/25/2014
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on: June 26, 2014, 05:15:13 AM
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I've read through the article a few times and I can't find anything where someone representing Nasdaq actually said a single thing to imply that it is actually considering listing Bitcoin on NASDAQ. All I see is the following: Matt Anderson, a DFS spokesman, and Joseph Christinat, a Nasdaq spokesman, declined to comment. Andreessen declined to comment through a spokeswoman. It's almost the same thing with the Winklevoss ETF - There is no evidence that that's even going to make it on NASDAQ either. Winklevoss submitted an application and it hasn't been rejected yet so now they say "NASDAQ is considering Bitcoin". I could send Google an email asking if I could be CEO, and now I can say "Google is considering me to be the CEO". |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 26, 2014, 05:01:21 AM
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I am the least extreme person on here with my predictions (or possibilities rather). They are very small in amplitude compared to the people who predict swift moves to $100 or $10,000.
I dont think I called you extreme. You are just a little bi polar. You go from hating bitcoin to worrying about it maniacally. Just calm down. I actually give very realistic TA - some of the most accurate on this forum. |
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677
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 26, 2014, 04:48:14 AM
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1D Ichimoku cloud wasn't ready to be broken today. IT seems the market is perfectly geared up for a decision point to be made in July. One such imminent pending unknown is the auction but there is a much more important one: What happens with Lawsky's regulations on July 1 or if they're delayed.
TERA you've been in manic mode today - all over these boards posting repetitive posts. You need to calm the fuck down. Did the futures trading kick your ass? Is that why you are even still here? I'm neither bull or bear right now, but the amount of hysteria on these forums this week, which you have been right in the middle of, is fucking irritating. I'm about to ban myself from here just to stop the pain. There is literally no decent analysis going on. No one can stand uncertainty around here. Its bonkers. Oh yes I'm in a panicky mania and that's why I'm saying things like.. "a decision point will be made in July". |
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