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1021  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 31, 2014, 09:27:24 AM
i was thinking we might tap this 630 line again and drop, but we keep hanging here above 620. it's starting to feel kind of bullish. then again, i've been trapped this way in the past...
This type of action usually means that a drop is coming but it will only be a temporary drop into a bull pennant consolidation before the next breakout. This type of action is not worth trading in a bull market espectially if your coins are in cold storage. Now if every MACD on every timeframe goes back down at that point THEN you may wish to consider selling.
1022  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price if Amazon Accepts Bitcoin on: May 31, 2014, 09:22:31 AM
It might not affect the price at all as the price is mostly controlled by an accumulation/distribution cycle of whales.
1023  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are psychics bearish on bitcoin? on: May 31, 2014, 08:20:09 AM
Tera: I'm confused. You say you believe in the psychics' abilities, but your position is still long. You've made a decision to go against their opinion. How does that square?
I don't believe in the credibility and accuracy of individual self proclaimed professional psychics to actually harness psychic abilities and be powerful enough to make accurate predictions. I for one have been practicing psionics for 15 years and my abilities are still shit, so it is hard for me to trust anyone else. I also don't believe that the future is neccessarily set in stone. In addition, I believe that psychics could have their energies and predictions interfered with by other forces and other psychics. For example, if there are bulls who want to accumulate as many bitcoins as possible and they are also powerful psions, they could be engaging in psychic combat with the mainstream psychics by projecting out bad energies and visions of crashes.

tl;dr I stick to my guns and use technical analysis for my trading.
1024  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are psychics bearish on bitcoin? on: May 31, 2014, 08:05:31 AM
Psychics and technology don't belong in the same sentence.
I don't think so. I would be interested in building technology that enhances psychic abilities. For example Cerebro in Xmen.
1025  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why does bitcoin increase by 64% since April ? on: May 31, 2014, 07:58:57 AM
Usually there is a few months of whale trading investing in the inevitable rally and creating a gradual uptrend, until confidence from the average Joe finally returns and there is a massive leap in userbase after a critical level is passed (such as $1000). Then the rally accelerates into double-exponential.

do you think we are on the path to that critical level now? i think there is a lot of levels overhead where people will be selling. i bought most of mine in the 700s and i gotta say, i will be tempted to sell some just to lower my exposure.
I think a break of $850 would be significant but we probably won't get there any time soon.

but you think we have reversed from the bear market, correct? or do you think we might see prices down in the $400s again? or (gulp) possibly even lower? i sure hope not.
I believe in 3 possibilities:
1. We have reversed out of the bear market and are on course for long recovery back up as we consolidate around each previous resistance level until eventually we break $850 which leads into the next ATH. This process spans 2 months at the very least. Probably 3 or 4.

2. We have reversed out of the bear market but are not on course for ATH any time soon. This is a "recovery bull run" or a mini-bubble which doesn't set ATH. It will peak out somewhere within the existing trading range somewhere between 700 and 900, and then flash  crash down to 500 or so. After the flashcrash there will be a brand new '6 month cycle' of a mild bear market and then a ramp up into a rally that finally breaks ATH.

3. This is not a real rally at all - it is a bull trap. It is a B wave of an ABC corrective sequence in an elliot wave. After B wave terminates, there will be a brand new downtrend formed which will last another few months just like the last downtrend. C wave will terminate somewhere between 265 and 400 with a massive volume signaling the end of the real final capitulation.
1026  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why does bitcoin increase by 64% since April ? on: May 31, 2014, 07:49:44 AM
Usually there is a few months of whale trading investing in the inevitable rally and creating a gradual uptrend, until confidence from the average Joe finally returns and there is a massive leap in userbase after a critical level is passed (such as $1000). Then the rally accelerates into double-exponential.

do you think we are on the path to that critical level now? i think there is a lot of levels overhead where people will be selling. i bought most of mine in the 700s and i gotta say, i will be tempted to sell some just to lower my exposure.
I think a break of $850 would be significant but we probably won't get there any time soon.
1027  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin integration on facebook. on: May 31, 2014, 07:39:51 AM
ugh I hate Facebook. They'll probably end up banning it until the app developer modifies it so that they can place ads all over it and take a cut out of the payments.
1028  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why does bitcoin increase by 64% since April ? on: May 31, 2014, 07:33:18 AM
Usually there is a few months of whale trading investing in the inevitable rally and creating a gradual uptrend, until confidence from the average Joe finally returns and there is a massive leap in userbase after a critical level is passed (such as $1000). Then the rally accelerates into double-exponential.
1029  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 31, 2014, 07:18:06 AM
I educated some friends/family on bitcoin and kept them on call for a breakout. They were originally very interested and bullish about the fundamentals and were going to buy at $800 but I advised against it and to wait for the bull market to start. So I kept them in the loop all the way through the gox crash and through the (second) china crash. They were still interested most of the time. However, as we got to April/May, they started losing interest. I advised multiple times to buy at $450 but now things were looking too grim, "it is volatile - we thought it would be less volatile", "this thing is all over the map", "its been going down too long", "i dont feel the same way about bitcoin anymore", etc.  I alerted them again as the breakout at $460 occured and as it was passing $490 but they completely lost interest by that point.  I guess they will probably buy now at this point at $625. It is ridiculous the mentality of the average person to buy high and sell low.
1030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 31, 2014, 06:59:36 AM
I'm wondering if these strong weekend prices signal an increase in mass adoption as most regular people probably only have time for bitcoin after their regular Mon-Fri. I know the volume isn't up, but one would expect newcomers to be making smaller purchases.
Yes based on the latest intraday trading patterns we can deduce that mass adoption has suddenly occured. It wasn't mass-adopted the other week before the downtrend broke but now it is. The mass-adoption occured overnight.
1031  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why does bitcoin increase by 64% since April ? on: May 31, 2014, 06:55:05 AM
The rally is due to the downtrend line breaking at $460. As a result of this, all types of traders and investors are all going long at the same time.  In one mass synchronization, every short must cover, everyone who sold to rebuy later must rebuy, and every investor who was waiting for an uptrend to start will buy. This all creates a massive power. It has nothing to do with news events so stop pretending like it does and detailing all the latest hot news like bitcoin is some kind of stock
1032  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin breaks out on the full moon? on: May 31, 2014, 06:51:30 AM
If you think the discussion is stupid then just say the [discussion] is stupid. Don't start talking about the [op] and asking questions about and making assumptions about the op. The op is completely irrelevant and doing this is childish.
1033  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin breaks out on the full moon? on: May 31, 2014, 06:36:15 AM
Which would make you the troll.
By not serious I mean I don't seriously believe that the moon has anything to do with the price. However, it was a valid pattern that I observed and I did want to know what type of opinions other people had on the pattern. Maybe we could get some type of entertaining or interesting discussion going.  But instead it shifts to the completely irrelevant focus of [TERA]. It's because [TERA something], what is [TERA's position]? bla bla bla TERA bla bla bla
1034  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin breaks out on the full moon? on: May 31, 2014, 06:28:37 AM
LOL why is this a serious thread? rofl
It's not a serious thread. But it was successful at once again eliciting responses from all of the same trolls who turn every discussion I make about [something] into a discussion about [me].
1035  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin breaks out on the full moon? on: May 31, 2014, 03:02:09 AM
The last two bitcoin breakouts have occured on a full moon. Both times I looked up in the sky at the moon and decided to throw in the towel as a bear and buy (or place a stop order).  Could the full moon have something to do with bitcoin breakouts? Are we to expect now a consolidation until another breakout on the next full moon?

Maybe its you who finally gets a clue on a full moon Huh
This makes no sense and adds no value to the context of my discussion.
1036  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is why Bitcoin is rising so fast... on: May 31, 2014, 02:59:45 AM
Dont get emotional over hot newses. Bitcoin fundamentals are always improving and adoption is always growing at an exponential rate ever since it was incepted. Yet it always follows the same trend of taking roughly the same period to recover as it spent declining. I don't know what makes you think that this particular set of news is special and going to change the trend so abnormally that $1000 would be reached within weeks. That is impossible. If $1000 is reached, expect to see it in 2 months at the very least.
1037  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 31, 2014, 01:10:28 AM
I think you're neglecting the recovery/ramp-up phase which historically has been symmetrical to the decline most of the time.
1038  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 31, 2014, 01:07:36 AM
^ This chart looks asymmetrical to me. I think the longer crash should warrant a longer recovery.
1039  Economy / Speculation / Re: What happens when the blockchain has more uses than just bitcoin payment system? on: May 31, 2014, 12:59:16 AM
I was thinking of using the blockchain as a persistent storage and messaging medium for some decentralized web applications I was thinking of developing. Nothing is stopping us from just abusing the blockchain for own needs that have nothing to do with bitcoin by taking advantage of the message field while sending coins back and forth between our own 2 wallets.
1040  Economy / Speculation / Re: post your average price of buying back in - 2014 ONLY on: May 31, 2014, 12:51:43 AM
I did various buybacks while trading in the 300s and 400s. Most of my coins are bought back at 460 but before that there was 420, and then there were these:

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