Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

I went crazy 4 times in the last year of following this thread, heh. How did you stay sane? All the FUD in here makes me never want to trade ever. All this weird shite of calling eachother and their mothers idiots and talking utter crap, screw that.

and yet you feel that the next piece of advice will be different: it will be founded in logic and knowledge, balanced and informed...

Nah, just another idiot shouting for DA MOON!  

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[tarmi]

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

[dreamspark]

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up 

[bitcoinvest]

can you give me a reason to sell at this price?? i'm still mining and not selling! we all know price is going to go up.
let's see in a few hours green bars is my prediction

[inca]

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

Hey I thought you didn't trade with leverage!? Seriously tarmi next you will be saying you went long at 236

[tarmi]

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

Hey I thought you didn't trade with leverage!? Seriously tarmi next you will be saying you went long at 236

yeah, well...I saw an opportunity and I took it.

[shmadz]

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up 

When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell.

Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make?

Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target?

[Bitcoiner_cph]

283 - > 287 in short time now we can all shout "THE MOON" !!  rsrsrsrsr

[tarmi]

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up  

When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell.

Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make?

Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target?

I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it. and yes, you are right. you dont need coins to go short at all.

I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash.

[shmadz]

I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it.

I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash.

Fair enough. Thanks.

[inca]

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up  

When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell.

Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make?

Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target?

I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it. and yes, you are right. you dont need coins to go short at all.

I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash.

You may get a chance to increase your short in the next few hours. Don't step too far away from your screen ..

[michaelGedi]

Not sure what you are trying to show with your chart. If you are suggesting the RSI cannot support any moves higher I suggest you look at Nov 2013, it has already broken out according to your charting..

Edit:

If we are playing spot the pattern then perhaps we are back in september 2013..

1 - it's not my chart.

2 - my main point in posting it is that, if you are in the school of "the downtrends not over", then the upper bound of the channel in CNY terms is exactly what we have been bouncing off for the last few days of last week. There are a few in this thread that complain of chinese pied piper's no?

3 -If we play spot the pattern using this chart, assuming the downtrend is not over (which the chart demonstrates), shows that the RSI counts for something. To imagine there is anything like Nov 2013 on the horizon is a bit mental in my opinion.

4 - don't get upset if I question your position, it's not an attack, I just think players stand to gain a lot more by the downtrend not being over and I'm biased because I'm shorting.

the only reason it was broken temporarily on bfx was that some shorts got margin called or panic cancelled... so annoying as I had a sell order at 304.1 that was missed :

Michael, couldn't let go of $2? $302 wasn't enough?

I don't sit there finger on the trigger, I placed the order in advance of course with the logic that if it didn't cross 305, it was going back down, and that logic was correct but 20 cents out!


EDIT: how do I make small pictures?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[tarmi]

You may get a chance to increase your short in the next few hours. Don't step too far away from your screen ..

my coins are eagerly waiting for bulls but they seem too weak and indecisive. coins are out there already.

so I am off to bed.

[michaelGedi]

the larger ask walls on bfx vanished for the "end of the weekend pump", read into that what you will

[Silverspoon]

...

...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?

Add "width=[size in pixels]" inside the image tag.

Code:

[img width=300]nkmnmnmnm[/img]

[inca]

1 - it's not my chart.

2 - my main point in posting it is that, if you are in the school of "the downtrends not over", then the upper bound of the channel in CNY terms is exactly what we have been bouncing off for the last few days of last week. There are a few in this thread that complain of chinese pied piper's no?

3 -If we play spot the pattern using this chart, assuming the downtrend is not over (which the chart demonstrates), shows that the RSI counts for something. To imagine there is anything like Nov 2013 on the horizon is a bit mental in my opinion.

4 - don't get upset if I question your position, it's not an attack, I just think players stand to gain a lot more by the downtrend not being over and I'm biased because I'm shorting.

1 - cool

2 - not sure why you are not defining the downtrend as being from the ATH and all subsequent lower highs. If we do so then it is already broken. But you are quite right the price may not be going up any time soon..

3 - we can agree to disagree on this one

4 - Certainly not upset! I dont trade with leverage. When there are players stuffing 120,000,000 dollars into stealth startups, the majority of which work/own major silicon valley firms then I would suggest you are wrong . I think the price is heavily engineered or manipulated. But expecting the price to drop below 160 dollars from a high of 1200 seems a bit silly now.

[Andre#]

Suppose you have a 9 day moving average in a daily chart, you average over nine days of which one is today, then 4 days are past and 4 days are yet to come. So you cannot know the 9-day moving average of today until 4 days from now. Hence the 9-day moving average can only be drawn into the chart up to 4 days ago. All those nice chart tools ignore this, and put the data point on today instead of 5 days ago. You can actually see this easily in the chart, as the line clearly lags behind the un-averaged data.

Conclusion, a 9-day average lags behind 4 days, and a 5 days average lags behind 2 days. Therefor, you can't compare them meaningfully unless you shift them to the right place in time (so 4 days to the left for the 9-day average, and 2 days to the left for the 5-day average).

I looked if you can shift the moving average lines to their proper place in bitcoinwisdom, but didn't find such option, unfortunately.

That's an objection to the use of averages in TA I've heard several times, and it's valid in principle, but:

a) It assumes you are looking at it from a signal processing perspective, where using averages like this way would simply be wrong. Instead, chartists know (intuitively at least, I believe) what is going on, and accept that the m day average from days n-m to n plotted to day n is a lagging indicator, and then try to work around this inherent lag.

Do you think TA should be time invariant? I.e. should it matter if we are talking about now, two months ago, or next month? Should it matter if things develop at half or double the speed? Should it matter if things go in reverse (that the principles involved in a decent in price are basically the same as the ones involved in an ascent)?

Obviously not. Though a non-shifted MA doesn't mean you treat a descent like an ascent, no? Here's the counter question: Can you exclude (in general) that a signal that lags by n day is useless to base a market decision on? Maybe. Next question: What if a certain number of market participants make a decision based on the (mis)application of the lagging indicator? Still guaranteed that there is no exploitable pattern in there?

I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?

To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit  model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

...

...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?

Add "width=[size in pixels]" inside the image tag.

Code:

[img width=300]nkmnmnmnm[/img]

[Cconvert2G36]

great plan!

btw thanks for an extra hundred bucks!

I thought you don't trade?

no, I said I dont margin trade and use obscure exchanges like bitfinex.

and yes, I sold a bunch of bitcoins in 266 range.

good time to short.

Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?

already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...

Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up  

When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell.

Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make?

Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target?

I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it. and yes, you are right. you dont need coins to go short at all.

I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash.