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The problem with a lot of altcoins is that they are copying bitcoins emission curve. Ending up with an inflation <2% could be problematic. Partly because rewards for miners decline and in so the incentive to up keep the network at a high hash rate is in danger but also because with such low inflation could lead to deflationary pressure in the economy (assuming the crypto is widely used).
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I don't think the coins will sell for a big premium, I think they'll go for around $600 per coin. In the most optimistic case I could see someone bidding exactly $2M for each 3k batch, which would be $666.66 per coin.  You also have to consider that this is a chance for investors to acquire large amounts which usually will move the market upwards. In so a small premium isn't that hard to imagine. |
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Why would the US government auction of these coins if they are trying to accumulate? Even if it's some pre settled intra deal it doesn't make sense. They could easily just have given the coins to Yellen instead if they were in fact trying to build a large bitcoin holding.
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Well only positive out of all the news in the last 24h is at least now the US could never illegalize bitcoins after selling some. How could they? Even many years in the future it would be very difficult to illegalize something the government sold on the open market.
Hemp as an example comes to mind... If they feel the need to criminalize bitcoin they will not hesitate. Yes probably true but still somewhat of a move in the direction of bringing bitcoin into an acceptance |
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Well only positive out of all the news in the last 24h is at least now the US could never illegalize bitcoins after selling some. How could they? Even many years in the future it would be very difficult to illegalize something the government sold on the open market.
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So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast
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Interesting. Going to look into this when I have time.
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Risto, have you read the willy report? you can find it here: http://willyreport.wordpress.com/What does it mean for the price of bitcoin and your investment strategy? Yes I read it. The main point is that when people send bitcoins or fiat to gox to trade with them, it results in: people gox bitcoins, fiat -> -> bitcoins, fiat. gox then issues goxcoins in the same quantity, also goxbux. When Willy/gox buys the goxcoins for uncovered fiat (acting as a CB), it raises the price of goxcoins, and also of bitcoins in other exchanges. But there is no effect on the real bitcoins or real fiat (which are stored in gox) until the customers withdraw. So during the runup, when gox was still by and large operational, they pumped up the price of BTC and ran into fiat debt, covered only by their customers' fiat deposits. Then they did not pay out the fiat to stay afloat. The higher price in gox induced people to try arbitrage, to deposit coins there, which Willy bought. At the apex of the bubble, gox had issued a lot of goxbux fraudulently and ran a ponzi with them. They were correspondingly long in goxbtc. What happened to the real bank balances of gox (in the tune of $100 million) and the real BTC hold (1MBTC?) is still unknown. Both were stolen in some point. This is where the theft occurred - what was played in gox' system goes under other crimes. Then in the end all the withdrawals were halted and Willy put on reverse, to dump all the goxcoins bought. I do not know if this made a small or huge loss. Also I don't know the purpose of it, because all(?) withdrawals were canceled, and there was no change happening in the actual liquidity position, except the very last deposits made by arbitrageurs of goxcoins in btc/gxc-exchanges. What the end result seems to me, is that gox pump did raise the bitcoin price. Also gox did act fraudulently for a very long time, and without proof to the contrary, also stole its customer reserves. Who is now holding the reserves, is an important question. Either the trading was so abysmal that they were lost as trading losses (perhaps to the insiders), or Mark holds them and is willing to risk prison because afterwards he will be so rich (yes, such people do exist that can live on after causing suicides of family fathers with their actions), or the 3-letter agencies hold them and Mark has for a short or longer time been a tool, either as a result of profession, bribery, or coercion. For now, it is a small stain in Bitcoin's reputation that another few % of them are in criminal hands. But the main effect on price has been seen long ago, including the price dips in February-April. All those who lost in gox, need to get back into the game (if they want to stay), and judging from the price action in the last months, they have not done it yet en masse. I am grateful to the author of the blog for explanation, but I don't think there is any relevance to where Bitcoin and USDBTC are going from now on. It may not be relevant to where btc is going from here in the long run but it's relevant when looking at the bubble properties. Seeing a bubble that high over the trend again just became much less likely imo. |
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Looking at the total number of transactions (excluding popular addresses) I think one can question this break out. Thoughts?
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Talking of Armstrong this is the first time I've seen him make an error:
"Beware of history and its lessons. Russia’s air force just provoked the West sending its long-range bombers into Western Europe where they violated the Dutch airspace and had to be forced out by sending up NATO fighter jets."
It was Sweden not Holland that got a visit from Russian air force. Obviously no big mistake but kind of funny since to reach Holland the Russians would have to fly through half of Europe.
Edit: Also the Russian jets weren't forced out by Nato jets. Nato jets were sent up too late to intercept so they just followed the Russians at a distance.
Edit2: Actually the most comical part of this story was that the Swedish air force didn't have any jets ready since it was easter holliday (last year). So if anyone wants to attack Sweden do it on a Holliday.
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Well written. Interesting to see if/what he replies.
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* I am very skeptical of anonimity as a "weapon of freedom". On one hand, one cannot build a functional society only with anonymous interactions. What makes society work it is the network of person-to-person interactions, where the parties know and trust each other. In anonymous interactions, outside the reach of government, there is no incentive to honor deals or build a reputation.
Choice is freedom. If you aren't anonymous in a transaction since you trust the other party that should be your choice. But on the other hand it should be my choice to stay anonymous if I prefer so. In other words the choice and option to stay anonymous is what drives freedom. In a society were you have no choice and are instead forced to stay un-anonymous there is no freedom. Anyone who doesn't aggree with this should re-read Orwell's 1984. Also we have come to a time and place were you can't compare a transaction from a 100 years ago to a transaction to today. 100 years ago you could make a non anonymous transaction with someone you knew and be certain no one elese saw this transaction. Today in a non anonymous currency you have the fear of the whole world witnessing the same transaction. So it's not solely the question of a trusted person to person interaction being anonymous or un-anonymous but a question of the network being trusted in the first place and that trust will greatly increase if you are certain the network is anonymous. |
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How do you see bitcoin's price behaving when the russian war drums will start getting louder ?
As I recall btc went up nearly $100 The day The Russians took Crimea so that is a good indication. Acting like gold in war times seems probable. |
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Actually I was thinking you might have written Sweden but I didn't feel like digging in that "Quality TA" thread for your post since it is probably buried. It was a post where you mentioned that you don't have to worry about being tracked down in your country for interacting with Bitcoin.
Apologies. Actually it is still a good indicator of my memory capacity that I can remember the general thrust of your prior posts in other threads and not only you but other users that I have interacted with.
No problem at all. I'm impressed with so much of your writings so I will let this little flaw go  To be fair you probably have a much better memory than me. My memory is not one of my stronger suits.. |
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Hi RAJSALLIN, what were you saying about not having worry there in Switzerland? I hope you guys realize you need the serious features I've outlined, and you need someone who can actually implement it. There are altcoins out there that dropped the ball because they were designed by committee and then got into squabbles and squandered their amazing technological breakthrough. You've got to be serious about this. This is no joke. And none of these "goofballs" (for lack of a better term coming to mind) out there are going to get the job done. This shit is really F.U.B.A.R. out-of-control: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/11/socialism-at-its-best-how-to-destroy-the-wealth-of-a-nation/You know there is tax competition amongst states and cities in Switzerland which lead to great results once in terms of efficiency and therefore attracting people to take their families and move to states with lower taxation. Often quite outside of the metropoles so also helping to populate remote parts of the country.
Of course, one day the traditional high tax states got jealous, amongst them the state of Bern with the capitol and politicians there. So they introduced a new system of taxing all states and allocating the tax income of efficient states to the inefficient ones, thereby turning the competitive Swiss tax system upside down.
As a result now for 2013, the state of “Schwyz”, according to all statistics one of the states with lowest expenses for administration, with a fully balanced budget, and highly attractive for many “rich” families, turned into the state with the highest deficit per capita – precisely to the amount which has to be allocated to other states..
The perversion is – the allocation is not based on real tax income – you would be able to manage – no, it is based on how high you COULD tax your citizens based on their wealth and income ! So, the more you attracted people with high income and assets in the past due to low taxes, the more you now have to send to other states – but since you did not earn that money you now have to borrow this first and then increase taxes to amortize..
Marty, everywhere in this world there is socialism at its best.. even in the most direct democracy [Switzerland] of this planet. I'm almost offended that someone of your calibre would mix up Switzerland and Sweden. Why is it that Americans do this all the time? I guess because both are supposedly neutral nations and begin with SW. Anyway Sweden has historically been one of the most socialistic nations in the world so your reference might as well apply here anyway. I'm very concerned with anonymity, the future of my children and a lot of other things I think is ***** up and we are being mislead to believe. That's why I'm here.. I still have hope though. |
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As long as the net EV is slightly negative it will prevent "professional" mining cartels to form.
When it comes to gold all in all I agree with you. Gold and silver backed currencies are a thing of the past. The only theory in which gold could possibly have an economic role in the future is the freegold theory of "Another". Although there are some serious faults in that theory as well imo. Gold has held it's value for thousands of years though but to see it re-taking a role as a medium of exchange is stretching it.
Silver does have a much larger industrial side and then there is also the fact that a lot of above ground silver is deposited in dumps so the current stock is fairly limited. Although I personally think that if silver prices started touching base with the silver bug dreamers it wouldn't take long before traditional mining companies started staking land fills. Mining old electronics has got to yield ratios in the XXg/t at least in which a high enough price and they would automatically become profitable to mine. It's not like the element silver is going to be extinct on this earth like some bugs seem to believe. But yes the industrial applications of silver does make it fairly interesting.
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After reading this thread and a few of the links provided by Anonymint it really struck me how important not only anonymity is but also the fact that the next generation crypto should be cpu only plus zero transaction fees. The point of mining being slightly -EV but still a highly valuable feature since it allows everyone to convert fiat to crypto without any third party involved was a heureka moment for me. It's just an amazingly simple but yet extremely important feature. Not only would it solve the exchange/trust problem of bitcoin but it would also greatly facilitate the adoption of the masses.
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i think millionnaires are buying bitcoin. they just do so by other channels than public exchanges and/or if they deal with the latest, they probably paid someone to sneak in at a greater profit, which could then explain such volatility: with weak hands actually selling their coins to huge whales/funds/banks/greedymillionaires without noticing it.
A few are buying without a doubt and probably doing so off exchanges. It's just that those few are probably a drop in the ocean.. |
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I suppose that a financial treaty between a sufficient number of developed countries could establish a mining pool cartel. The cartel would consist of a majority of the current mining pool incumbents. Cryptographic medallions would be one-time generated and sold to the cartel. Each such medallion would give the bearer the legal right to consume a certain amount of electric power for the purpose of mining bitcoin. The medallions would be treated as property and could be sold. Furthermore, they could be somehow combined and divided by some mathematical mechanism. The treaty would specify the total amount of power that could be spent worldwide for Bitcoin mining. The free market would allow the exchange of medallions from one mining pool to another. I think that this could be done without forking the blockchain, provided that another shared database contains the cryptographic proof that a coinbase block was signed by a certain medallion. There are likely loose ends and various faults with this scheme, but the main idea is similar to how New York City controls the number and profitability of its taxi cabs. Because a small number of mining pools effectively control bitcoin, I believe they could reject as invalid any new blocks created outside of this medallion process. That sounds like something out of a sci fi novel |
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