There should be some support @ 480-500, if it breaks 475 or 450, it could go down to 100
Its not going to 100 |
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Does this mean that Chinese will have a hard time buying bitcoins since there banks may not want to allow transfers to bitcoin exchanges?
I'm a bit confused over this statement since just a few weeks ago a representative from the central bank of China came out with positive signals on bitcoin.
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Here I was thinking that perhaps a mere 1 million does not change anybody's life at least in high-cost countries. But several million will do. Depends on person, but most of us will feel considerable economic freedom after the net worth hits 2, 3, 5 or 10 million. I don't think anyone who started with humble means can say that $10 million is not enough for personal needs for the rest of his life. The number of 10-millionaires is still small, but this (the economically free people, no matter how many million) is the class that can have considerable impact if they just It is easy to give himself as an example. So I do  I switched to all-Bitcoin in March 2013 and have spent 66 hours per month writing on this forum. If I was short of money, I could rake in anything between $200-$5000 per hour doing various things. But I regard writing about Bitcoin economics as more important. I am free to do it, and I am changing the world with my own small part. The world at large is still absolutely clueless about Bitcoin. We can say that the general awareness was only really reached last month. The previous bubbles generated publicity, which faded away. Now it is not fading away, it is gaining grassroots adoption, and I believe that by trickling the knowledge that I and others generate, to the masses, the party can go on and on. It is possible that 2014 will be the year of Bitcoin. Yes, I am aware that 2013 already saw 100x gains  You really are a great asset for this forum. I wouldn't even be here if it wasn't for you. Was tipped off on another forum about a "a crazy Finnish guy who wrote great pieces about bitcoin". Huge thanks for your work here. I'm not sure that all bitcoin millionaires would go in your direction though but I could be wrong. |
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Rpietila, so you are saying that new made bitcoin millionaires have the power to do wonderful things for the world if I understand you correctly. What makes you think that these millionaires will be different than old school millionaires?
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Actually thank you for the sentiments and I knew that, as well appreciated the liquidity you brought me at that time and was happy to give you some suggestions at that time, but we diverged in our activities and goals. You may think this again. Let's pray Bitcoin doesn't crash to $500 before going higher so you don't reinvest that $1 million (1000+ BTC) back in Bitcoin's ponzi again. So you won't be too distraught when the bitter end for Bitcoin comes. I do note you are diversified, e.g. precious metals. But the precious metals are going lower before they make new all time highs (after 2015) the G20 is likely going to confiscate them. So don't count your eggs before they hatch.
It doesn't make sense to say to hope the price doesn't go down to $500 before the end of bitcoin comes since the end would surely give these prices and bellow and hence Risto will be buying in again anyway. Unless the end you speak of would be an instantaneous zero valuation which is so remotely unlikely we can dismay it. Also I'm curious on how an end would manifest itself in your mind? Let's say the end would in fact come in the beginning of 2014. With both US and Chinese governments sending careful positive signals the biggest immediate threat as I see it is already somewhat eliminated. I think it's much more likely we see a bubble pop and people like yourself start talking about the end of bitcoin but in reality it's just a natural market reaction which bitcoin has already experienced several times and new all time highs will come within months. |
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I think rpietila is correct in his assessment of the current situation. In fact I'm willing to bet on it and in so I've sold 2% of my holdings today.
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silversurfer, I think your son has a better chance of a much greater return if he just forgets about those 0.1 bitcoins for a few years and doesn't sell any. Silver is a nice alternative but it's potential is so much lower than bitcoin it's not even worth discussing. Silver is great to hedge vs bitcoins but with a so small amount as 0.1btc it's just better to hold on imo.
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@rpietila I am going to follow your "rake" method in the other thread. Am wondering, do you think at some point we should cash out most of the holdings in case of a dramatic dip by estimating an adoption top-off point in the future? your rake method goes to $1000/mbtc, which is great, but what if there are signs $300 will be the top, or $1000 is the top etc. Especially if the amount of funds we have in btc at that time can have a dramatic impact on our life. estimating the top will be the hard part, and it doesn't necessarily have to crash back down for long, I mean it could hit $1000 then correct to $300 and advance slowly and smoothly from there if it gains mainstream adoption. However, at that point profit-taking most of the mbtc at $1000 and keeping a small % for the long term would be wise. What do you think? Also, what do you think about starting to rake at $5k, or $10k? Thanks, really appreciate all the knowledge you offer. I think the point with rake method is so you don't have to be estimating tops. If you feel you want to have a higher percentage of fiat over 100mbtc for example then make your rake strategy already now so that this will be the case. Either rake at a higher percentage from the start or start raking more at a certain point. |
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Rpietila,
I am thinking about your model and if and how I'm going to implement it. I'm not a total newbie when it comes to investing and i was thinking about a slightly more advanced model.I don't think I can ignore the exponential trend and so I think one alternative model should be one where you can buy back if the trend goes under the curve after a recent rake hits. What's your take on this idea? Thanks again.
P.s. Thanks for your time on this forum and your positive energy. May you find a nice castle.
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Thanks for the swift and thorough reply.
Have another question. If one uses your adviced strategy of cashing out (rake) at set intervalls should one not take the exponential trend line into account? Let's say we are well behind the trend and we just hit a target. Is it really wise to sell 10% in this case? If you answer no I'm thinking one has to set some exception rules to the outlined plan before hand.
Edit: You say you like silver more than gold based on history but at the moment it seems to me that silver is a pretty dead monetary metal. No central banks are holding silver for example. The gold to silver ratio of bellow 30 came at times silver was a monetary metal backed by governments. Doesn't this feel like a less likely scenario now?
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The key here is investing the total amount of what one is ready to risk from the start rather than going gradually over time.
An alternative way to this savings plan is just to buy a required number of bitcoins and put it into a paper wallet. But this is not so good because the value involved is so high that you better start preparing your new life already. It can be achieved with periodical dividends from the bitcoin stash, which gradually get bigger and enable you to upgrade your standard of living, etc. First, good thread. I was wondering what you actually mean by it not being wise to put your coins in a paper wallet and just forget about them? I'm assuming you mean that one day you will wake up being very rich and that will be somewhat of a shock and may not end well. Like someone winning the lotery? Is this what you mean or am I misunderstanding you? I'd like to add that for many people just forgettng about your coins now will be a much better strategy since the biggest challenge (if bitcoins do go to 1M) is not selling a majority of the coins way to early. For example I've already heard of people seelling entire holdings in this last run up in price. Considering the above I guess one could say having a set strategy like you outline is incredibly valuable. You just have to be entirely confident that you will follow it. rpietila, I'd also like to hear what you think your non bitcoin investments should consist of? What percentages would you allocate to gold, silver, stocks, bonds, cash etc? |
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Mark my words. The Great Crash is coming.
I tend to agree...at least at a gut level....but if BTC is not just a speculative fad it will come back...or die like the TULIP it was trying to be....a market (assuming it survives) will always go back to its previous high may take a day or a decade...the key here is it can yo/yo all it wants ...what is the end game say 5yrs or more from now.....is it a beanie baby fad that passes....or a paypal/ebay/inet game changer anyway....I'm mining now... may mine later..not sure about speculating on up/down...may just mine and hold...if in the delusion of my mind I can show that the miners at least paid for themselves "on paper" I can probably live with that .....comfort level wise....if i'm wrong I still have some gains..if i'm right ..then no need to be greedy...risk vs reward don't ya know..i'll still be way ahead..... anyway noob comfort level 1 armor 1 weapon 1 loincloth is where i am with this game so far... Bitcoin has already survived three bubbles. Why couldn't it survive another or 5 more? Seems to be something of a natural growth mechanism for bitcoin in the formation and puncture of bubbles. Also in the long run bubbles don't necessarily have to be bad since they will redistribute coins faster then if the price is just low volatile straight up. |
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AnonyMint I think we all get your point. I'd like to add though that there are other countries than the US. Even if capital controls do become harsher here in the EU I have a hard time seeing your doomsday scenario come true here, in the US or anywhere else. Sure we never know and having a crypto currency that could provide greater anonymity can't be a bad thing. So stop posting and get your programming game on. Oh yeah and what's with calling them Bitcons one day and then now Bitcoins again? PS. Seems like you put a lot of faith into what Armstrong says. I've been following him for years and although I have to say he has a pretty good track record I think he's pretty far from an all seeing eye and at times seems to be borderline mad. I'd advice you from putting all your eggs in his basket(case?) PS2. I think your coming coin where normal cpu's can keep mining is a pretty damn good idea. I haven't spent anytime at all looking into other altcoins. Is there any coin that has this feature atm? |
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1 week and still haven't received my coins from Kapiton..
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The realization that it is impossible for Bitcoin to become a currency has sunk in. The coin supply curve can not be overcome no matter how many BTC gifts you personally send this Xmas. Even if the market cap reaches $4 trillion, the currency float will only be in the range of $200 billion (at 5% of coins). That is third-world country size, yet spread out globally without the economy-of-scale of proximity.
Right now Bitcoin acts as a store of value more than a medium of exchange and it's not necessary for Bitcoin to ever be a medium of exchange to reach much higher valuations. Gold is a good example which has a very high valuation despite not being used a medium exchange since the gold standard. |
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Update: still haven't received my coins and still no answer from support. I would advice everyone to stay away from Kapiton for now.
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$2500 or $4000 or $6000. Does it really matter? Nothing else will give you those gains with such certainty.
So really this discussion is not about fulfilling some investment decision, rather is about counting our future money and salivating over it?
I guess the reason I react this way, is I originally followed Jason Hommel into silver and his calculations of how silver would go to astronomical prices. I never believed those ridiculous calculations, but I did waste some years of my life on technical analysis. With Bitcoin, there isn't even much risk of a sustained decline near-term. So you should be able to just forget about for a year or so, and go do something else more productive with your life.
So I guess I regret what I did with my life from 2006 to 2011 or so. What a waste of talent.
Taking some time away from watching the price might give some time to reflect on the big picture. When we keep ourselves busy with some compulsive activity, we tend to become consumed by it, e.g. my posting on this bitcointalk forum!
Very good post. I think a lot of us need a kick in the but to stop waisting our precious time. Point taken. |
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What about Falkvinge? Feels like he should make the list considering he went all in quite early.
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I am buying BTC and hold them and even forget about them and in 4 or 5 years will look back and see what happened to them.
What do you think about this strategy?
How much do you think each BTC will cost in 5 years?
I will try to buy at least 20 or 40 BTC
Will I be rich in 5 years?
Suuuuuuure, and I'm buying your bs. 20 btc for 5 years, lol. So many threads like this popping up everywhere. If you will buy then show us some receipt later, mkay? (transaction id will be fine) Haha what a ridiculous post. Why couldn't he be serious? |
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Anonymint, calm down. You may be right but you are to extreme. yes we will be taxed but no way are we going to be crucified for this. But again, start making that code for your coins instead of scaring us more. When you are done I want first dibs. Ehhhumm, I mean I don't want any (in case big brother is listening). Also, why not become the Robin Hood of bitcoin. They won't have to hunt me down. My stash will willingly be distributed to the people who need them the most. True socialism here we come. Edit: what if you are wrong AnonyMint? What if bitcoin isn't constructed by the elite? Or what if it is but they aren't planning to tax the holders to death? Or what if their plan fails? Are you willing to take the risk of not investing in an asset that has a huge potential because of your fear standing in the way? |
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