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So consensus here is that bitcom could go to $70, an altcoin could be a much better investment and TA is a much more reliable price indicator than FA for btc. Mmmmkay, guess I have to sell all my coins now. Or actually, should probably do the opposite of what people are thinking here.
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Usually drop by here a few times per month since nov last year. I think sentiment has never been as bad as now. During the crash in December and now the last crash sentiment was more "oh no it's going down but that's alright since now I can buy cheap coins". Now I'm seeing more and more of the "bitcoin is broken for ever" sentiment. Take it for what it is but I find it interesting.
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To add to my previous post, there is no lock-in with Bitcoin. If you buy today, you can sell tomorrow. The early buyers did not buy a lottery ticket that won. They accumulated assets that they could have sold any day 24/7 for the going price, so the decision was not a one-off type the least. Today, I made a decision to not buy bitcoin with all my non-bitcoin assets (significant). This makes me an early anti-adopter, as well as all my peers who could have bought today but did not  (In most cases, I can't understand people who have a portfolio but disregard Bitcoin and not invest even 1% into it. That would be a maximum 1% loss and a potential 10-bagger in 3-5 years, something that should appeal to rational people.) A potential 10-bagger in 3-5 years? I think the potential is bigger than that and also a shorter time frame |
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Amazing. Gox is finally gone and it still manages to crash Bitcoin.
This is all EW territory... what are you talking about! The news adjusts to fit the TA. Agree witht this |
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Agree, rpietila is the reason I'm here. Without him and i'd say bye bye to bitcointalk. With the amount of followers you got and the attraction you have I think it would be a huge loss for not only this forum but Bitcoin as a whole if your thoughts are only released to an elite few.
Concerning the quality here I think it's partly because we are currently in a "boring" period for bitcoin. Much like the period may-aug last year. People are just not putting that much energy into producing quality posts. When the steam starts coming back I bet the quality will increase even with more newcomers.
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Every attempt to climb higher on Gox seems to be fought back with sells in the range of 40-70btc in to the market. Who has all these coins? What are they thinking? Really strange.
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So the people selling on Gox are most likely selling out of fear. They think it's going to 100, 10, 1 or zero. Have never been in the choo choo group but now is the time to HODL or even BYU if you have funds on Gox. This is crazy.
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I don't understand can someone please explain why people are selling at these prices at Gox? You can't get fiat out there anyway so why not keep your btc and hope for Gox allowing btc withdrawals soon? I don't get it.
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If one goes to bitcoinwisdom and views the 3day chart one can observe how similar the pattern between February 2013 - June 2013 and October 2013 - February 2014 looks. I have been observing this similarity for a while and the longer it goes on the more confident I feel in the probability of this continuing. This would mean that the time point corresponding to today would be the middle of June. The two lines on the chart (anyone care to enlighten my TA ignorant self what they are called and how they are calculated?) have just crossed and are diverging and a firm downtrend is established. If the pattern continues we can expect some more downward movement with a final capitulation around the price point of 400$ in about a month from now. Needless to point out this is a pretty exact playing out of rpietilas predictions. Much impressed! I am calling the bottom in 23 days from now! Because 23! EDIT: I see I am not the only who had pretty much the same idea --> http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1xuz9h/daily_discussion_friday_february_14_2014_early/cfevo8zThere isn't any thing that says it has to play out exactly the same way. I'd actually say it usually never does. I think the bottom is coming much sooner, in fact my guess before the weekend is over. Another interesting point is Gox has seen a low of $302. If Gox does in fact recover from it's mess (not ready to give any kind of odds on that) the current low on Gox will correspond to a newer low and will be sufficient going forward imo. Edit: the flash low on btc-e not included. |
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- Unproven, very complex new crypto. Needs many years to become trusted and stable.
Isn't this point going to be a problem with any new crypto? Better get this new coin out soon so there is sufficient time to test and debug it. Anonymint what is your feeling at the moment. Is there any coin in the pipe that you feel could have the properties you want? |
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Anonymint, I'm disapointed you are letting the work with your coin go, although i understand you.
Couldn't you try to work together with a team (like zerocoin) and together work towards your goals?
I personally think you were just to active in these forums and should just have released your coin anonymously. As is now I see the problem in doing that.
Too bad nonetheless since it seems like not many appreciate what you are saying. We might never see a coin that has your requirements..
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Nice post.
Now I'd really like to get a discussion going on this alt crypto coin saver. Could it be zerocoin? What about Anonymint's own coin, how's that going? The sooner this coin hits the market the better.
Another question, couldn't precious metals be a good alternative for saving wealth anonymously out of reach from confiscation?
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Personally I'd prefer no leadership att all. The more decenentalized the better imo. Of course we need people that are active in the community and speak in favor of bitcoin but I don't think we need anymore organizations that speak the word of bitcoin. Let the market do it's job. When it comes to MtGox the market is doing just this with the increasing spread between Gox and other exchanges. Think it's working perfectly in that aspect. If MtGox problems increase the market will keep "judging" it in the way it requires.
I don't want to put rpietila down in anyway. His posts are what made me join bitcointLk in the first place. I just love the posts about how 10btc will make you super rich etc. Also his trading skills are far superior than most in the other wall thread.
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Question to rpietila and you other high quality thinkers..
The bitcoin price has so far moved up in waves. Each wave top and collapse has been accompanied by debate from non believers of a bubble top which in turn has been followed by a time of consolidation and then a new bubble formation where people have understood the last bubble wasn't the final one etc.
Will this formation continue all the way to the final price top of $300k-1M or will the rise change nature and take another approach? What do you say? I think it's getting more and more obvious that this pattern is repeating itself and in so it's pretty easy to trade it. In one way I guess it's a self fulfilling prophecy but I'm still wondering if this obvious pattern can continue? Next top $5k, crash then $20k, crash then $100k etc.
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I don't have much time to buy silver now, so the price may go deeper.
Time to take your meds again. The delusion has come back. Pretty shocked this comment came rom a moderator. |
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any plans to get BIP 38?
This. Think it's important that bip38 infrastructure is increased since it's one of the safest ways to store paper wallets. |
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Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows.
As you can see, bitstamp is crashing with as little volume as it was choochooing 2 days ago "There is no stable price between 500 and 1000" Rpietila, I forgot to thank you for this thread. The regular wall observer is so full of crap it's not worth the time to follow. I'm hoping this thread will be of much higher quality and I hope I can be a small part of that. (This post is not part of it and feel free to delete it.) |
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I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.
My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?
It is currently the most reliable tool in my possession. The only other one that has given me edge is fibonacci retracement levels. Other than those two, it is just hunch (which must be interpreted correctly, ie. a "hunch to panic buy" is more often wrong  ). I know that others use other kinds of analysis methods, but I don't know enough of them. Also my position is quite large to enter and exit at will, which means that the more long-term methods suit me better. I did fine in 2011 by refusing to buy until the price had gone back below trend. Also the whole of 2012 was a stellar buy with no sell signals. 2013 was spot on. The only thing the trendline method did not call was the top in 2011 (there was no trend yet, except a 6400x UP in 12 months). If it fails on this one, it will be the first actual failure. (I did call the top at $25 but did not have any coins to sell, so talk is cheap ) To elaborate what I would classify as failure: if the price at no point in 2014 goes at least -0.2 log units below the trend. It does not need to happen this month. This is no crystal ball, rather "some kind of magical gravitational force" that rewards those who understand its long-term nature and have the balls to wait. Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows. |
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I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.
My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?
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