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261  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: March 18, 2024, 03:22:03 PM
There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public,
Funny that you quoted Bitdeer News because that is a publicly listed Bitmain branch, you know who is the CEO? Probably even the founder? Jihan Wu, rings a bill?
As for thier new chip its most likely just BM1368 rebranded.

More like a full Santa's sled full of them, I had my share of popcorn when Wu and Zhan where fighting over at Bitmain.
But even now I have no clue who was right and wrong and if that wasn't just for show and under all that it's business as normal.

The reason I mentioned bitdeer is the chip, they claim it's a 4nm chip, isn't the s21 using 5nm chips?
262  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Exit strategy BTC cash out (or any other crypto) without pay capital gains taxes on: March 18, 2024, 03:02:48 PM
The fact that you want to convert BTC into stablecoins really doesn't make sense to me, because then what will you do with stablecoins?

I think his plan is something else, he wants to convert his BTC to USDT and other stable coins in secret and then claim for tax purposes that he has only stable coins, so when liquidating those he will not pay capital gains on it at all, he sells 1$ he bought with 1$ for 1$, in theory, tax-free. But of course, this theory doesn't hold water when it comes to the IRS or whatever it is called in that country, he will still have to make up a story on how he ended up with $100k tether he is liquidating and since he has no receipt for those as in buying with his own money...

OP, just go for face2face deals as Lucius said, exchange 1000 euros here 1000 euros there and use them for daily life purchases, the whole stable coins thing is just an illusion of you managing to cover your tracks.
263  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will bitcoin become a payment option?Was the initial design of bitcoin tobe paym on: March 18, 2024, 02:35:29 PM
4. Less volatility and appreciation. People aren't gonna want to spend bitcoin all that much if it goes up a ton in value over time. Though this may not matter because by the time there are enough people to satisfy #2 and #3 bitcoin will probably be fairly mature and will no longer be going up by dozens percent per year.

The widely-held assumption used to be that volatility would naturally taper off over time and then Bitcoin would settle into more of a currency role.  But I haven't seen anyone saying that lately.

Because it's still in the discovering price period, and a lot think that the price might be higher and higher so here you have the volatility coming in, until we get past all those phases like the current ETH approval, the incoming halving and maybe even the next one we will still have swings as news, hype, fomo and everything else will still influenced the price in a disproportionate way.

And until this phase passes and no longer you can dream of 5x in a year or two you will not see people spending their coins, because...why would they do it unless forced?

If you ask when we will not be able to give you the answer. but what is certain is that Bitcoin has been used by some countries or some business people as a means of payment as an alternative to using fiat.
~
Currently, when you deposit money in the bank, you also authorize the Bank to use your money for the Bank's needs.

I have a feeling that if we run the numbers there are more people entrusting their Bitcoins to banks (Binance,Coinbase,Kucoin...hmm let's add FTX,mtGox) than there are people paying for stuff and goods or services directly in crypto.And, I still think Bitcoin is doing better in those stats than other altcoins, I'm sure all under top 20 have just exchnge<>wallet<>exchnge activity.
264  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Biden resurrects 30% crypto mining tax in new budget proposal on: March 18, 2024, 01:57:59 PM
Companies that produce or acquire power “off-grid” would also need to pay a 30% tax on the estimated costs of their electricity bills.
or are you saying the article i linked to is wrong?

The misunderstanding is in the companies that produce or buy it off-gird, the tax will be aimed at the companies that do that off-gird but are not limiting their production to the said mine, otherwise you would have nothing to tax since most large farms are directly connected to huge powerplants that have a direct contact with them. That's why the term particular is here:
" for example by using the output of a particular electricity generating plant,"

Also , a lot ignore the other thing, not only it's a proposal, but:
Quote
The proposal would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2024. The excise tax would be phased in over three years at a rate of 10 percent in the first year, 20 percent in the second, and 30 percent thereafter.

So till 2025, they will only pay 10%, again, considering the deals they have and the buy-back schemes, not a single one will leave.
They will pay up and that's that, compared to the halving a 10% on electricity will be nothing.

And look at the bright side, that might be a moment hobby miners might have a chance, how can a small guy compete with a huge farm that buys electricity at 2.5 cents per kwh and gets a 10-20% discount on buying MQO of 100 units?
And another bright side, wasn't everyone concerned that the US might gain a majority in the total hash rate (juts like China) and that it was bad for decentralization? Forced decentralization by everyone fleeing everywhere!
265  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Biden resurrects 30% crypto mining tax in new budget proposal on: March 17, 2024, 05:18:36 PM
I still don't understand how government bureaucrats can convince themselves imposing %30 tax on crypto businesses is something normal. %30 is ridiculously high. Considering mining businesses can be with their ups and down in relation with Bitcoin or other altcoin prices. To be honest anything more than %10 is exceptionally shitty idea in cryptocurrency context. This is not a business where you put your products and services on market and sell. Its something completely new and governments should not mess it up.

It's not a tax on business. It's a tax on electricity used if you buy it!
There was a misunderstanding in it that you will pay even if you generate it yourself but that off-grid purchase definition is only when you buy it from another operator, in fact just how many minign farms are doing right now, by having a private offgrid contract with a powerplant.

And if anyone thinks this will be a disaster for mining in the US, those guys pay between 2- and 3 cents per kwh, this 30% increase would lead them to 4 cents per kwh at most, do you think they will pack their bags and go...where? Cause that would still be insanely cheaper compared to half of the world.
So they will simply stay put, pay up, or raise money to buy their own power source that will exclude them from the tax.



266  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession soon? on: March 17, 2024, 02:20:56 AM
I don't speak in terms of dollars for the bet, so don't use that metric.
If China becomes No1 in nominal (not PPP) GDP, you'll give me 1 BTC.
If USA remains No1, I'll give you 1 BTC.
How does that sound?

Do you actually know how to make a bet ?

1) We work with IMF/World Bank/Zerohedge/Alex Jones numbers?
2) The GDP numbers are for the end of 2030, so it includes the 2030 year or it must happen during 2030, so basically Q3 2030 (fixed this), or it must be till 2030
3) When it's the final decision-making limit?
4) What user(s) we use for arbitrage?
5) What escrow?
6) You're just wasting my time trolling, right?
267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Im new here but Im old trader i keep eyes on Market. on: March 17, 2024, 02:16:08 AM
Old trader?  Grin

Grow up kid. You're not fooling anybody.

Quit acting like you know what you're talking about.

but jimbo don’t you want to read his predictions?

but, Phil, you want to see more of this?

I see btc price Will be in 1-2 days 73-75k easy.

Two days later, hits 64800!

but shorts will be liqutated the long orders power its stronger until next btc price target 75k +

Imagine going long based on this "old trader" advice.
Or even better doing some 50x leverage

And it's not just about price alone right now i see the whales buying themselfes so If they buy it then i buy it you can't go wrong If you do exacly Same what the whales doing it.

Yeah, that's the problem, you newbie!
You forgot the key element when doing what whales did, you went long when they dumped, and you have not a penny left to "fill" your bags when they do so!
So seriously, stop this farce, it's cringe material!
268  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession soon? on: March 17, 2024, 02:10:28 AM
I don't care if 1 BTC is worthless

I think that you actually believe that more than you want to let people know, otherwise you would propose the bet.

Willing to take the bet or nah?

Yup, show the conditions and who decides the numbers and the winner, if I think it's fair it's a $66 000 bet!
269  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession soon? on: March 17, 2024, 01:55:47 AM
ps: I'm not a fan of China or totalitarianism in general (including faux Western "democracies"), but that's just the way things are heading according to Davos/WEF.

Let me save you 1 BTC:

This is the link you shared! It says 2030 but it's written in 2019!

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/india-will-overtake-the-us-economy-by-2030/

Second, it's not Davos, whatever you think that means, it's "according to Standard Chartered " and it's bassed on their prediction from 2010
Which you can read here:
https://www.sc.com/sg/_pdf/SuperCycle_external_Final.pdf

Quote
For example, China’s growth rate in real terms is forecast at 9.3% (2011) and 10.0% (2012), averaging 6.9% over the two decades to 2030.
How's that "prediction working?

Now, this is 2023 reality:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/will-china-ever-get-rich-new-era-much-slower-growth-dawns-2023-07-18/

Third, since I have serious doubts you know what nominal GDP is, let me do simple math for you, you know, basic numbers, things that are anchored in reality not youtube vids.

Currently, US's GDP is 27 Trillons, while China's is 17.7 Trilions, we talk NOMINAL not PPP.
There are 6 years till 2030, which means China will have to grow each year by 8%, so exceeding by almost double the CCP own prediction and the US will have to stand at a standstill for that to happen. Now assuming 5% as the CCP has mandated it to happen and the US sitting again still, you will need till 2035.

So, are you that sure one Bitcoin will be worthless by 2030 that you want to take this bet?


270  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession soon? on: March 17, 2024, 01:20:07 AM
I'll call you again in 2030, biased guy...

Yeah, got it, no actual arguments just slogans, so, call me in 2030!
271  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession soon? on: March 17, 2024, 12:57:31 AM
Look better at that chart:

It says "Top 10 countries by nominal GDP in 2030"

The chart still says PPP. Show me one with GDP nominal.

Sure thing, Chinese are pretty good at reverse engineering stuff. I thought that was common sense.

And yet they need to invite Taiwan for that?
You forgot where your scenario started, let me remind you:

Quote
Of course it won't be easy, they'll have to capture Taiwan (TSMC) first to become the leaders of Digital Transformation/AI revolution...

Your words, not mine, they will HAVE TO /FIRST!
Love these moving goalposts.

Also, keep in mind 95% of solar panels imported in the EU are made in China:

Solar panels are not chips! Even Morroco has a solar panel manufacturer, but not that many chips!

EU is already struggling with LNG, let's not make it even worse than it already is, shall we?

Yeah, we already have frozen to death two winters already and eaten out pet hamsters, so let's not listen to Russian propaganda anymore...Right?
Gas is trading below the levels before the invasion, so don't go there!

Come on, it's China vs USA. Everybody has figured it out, except you it seems:

It's more like China versus US, EU, Nato, Australia, New Zeeland, Japan, South Korea, Philipines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Taiwan.

I'll never understand geriatric Bitcoiners who put so much faith in a declining empire. Huh Have you invested in 401k or what?

Neah, it's because my grandparents heard that since 45, and my parents and I heard that in the breadlines till 89, my kid is hearing this as he grows, his nephew will hear that and look at it, the only thing in the world that died more times than Bitcoin is the USD.

Yet, even here, even you, you know the price of Bitcoin in USD, you don't know the price of USD in Bitcoin!
Call me when that happens! Oh my bad, call my grandchild!
272  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession soon? on: March 16, 2024, 11:14:40 PM
According to Davos it seems that China will be No1 (double GDP) by 2030:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/india-will-overtake-the-us-economy-by-2030/

Look better at that chart:

PPP, or the way to tell poor people eating a loaf of bread in the slums of Lagos is the same as Buffet having a golden sprinkled wagyu steak in Manhattan.

By PPP Egypt has a 2 trillion economy, by USD or, well Bitcoin, it's only 400 billion.

Of course it won't be easy, they'll have to capture Taiwan (TSMC) first to become the leaders of Digital Transformation/AI revolution...

TSMC is nothing with ASML, and good luck in invading the Netherlands.

Historical patterns indicate the USD is already a grandpa waiting to be phased out vs BTC being a baby:

Those patterns have all the same story, the main power falling in a war against another continental power.
Now, based on those patterns, how do you see Mexico or Canada faring in a war against the US?

273  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [Mar 2024] Fees are lower, wait for opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs on: March 16, 2024, 10:59:43 PM
At least those transactions are sending payments, not consolidating.
They're still doing it: this transaction takes 9 dust inputs and one large legacy input. It sends a small amount to a new address, and the majority back to the original large legacy address. If they would have forgotten about the dust, they could have made the same transaction, saved $300, and would have had more money in their large legacy address than they do now. If this is a failed algorithm I'd like to apply for a job to do this manually. I only charge 50% of all the money I save in fees. It will take me just a few months before I can retire.

Hmm, now that I look again, this is way weirder than at first, maybe the labels are wrong?
1Kr6QSydW9bFQG1mXiPNNu6WpJGmUa9i1g is labeled as Bitfinex
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1Kr6QSydW9bFQG1mXiPNNu6WpJGmUa9i1g
3929qmbYYxAST12ceKRWKxcRFwXNnrXnfE
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3929qmbYYxAST12ceKRWKxcRFwXNnrXnfE

I'm saying that because what they are doing is really strange, they have >20 000 transactions like that, and this looks more like an old tumbling mixing error than anything else and this has been going for 8 days, kind of impossible for an exchange not to see it.

the spend done to raise fees would need to be 15% of what the fees run.

Ie spend .2 btc on fees. your pool mine ⅓ the blocks so your actual spend is not .2 it is .133

So what does the cost of .133 raise the fees by for each block .  If they can move block fees from .1 to .5

and they hit ⅓ of those blocks they get .167 for spending .133

That's the big IF Phil, because if the amount of tx you need to create and mine yourself is just too big compared to the natural activity you will end up mining your own fees and little else, losing 1 block of 8 sat/vb fees for 1/10 of a block of 10 sat/vb fees.
And right now, as we actually mine 8sat/vb there is no demand for that block space, all weeknd and stuff.
274  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Exit strategy BTC cash out (or any other crypto) without pay capital gains taxes on: March 16, 2024, 09:42:17 PM
Simple strategy: Move to a country like Montenegro or El Salvador for 9-10 months and establish tax residency there.
~snip~

I personally would not go to countries where the security situation is not the best, and Montenegro is certainly one of those countries, considering that it is an extremely divided country with great national tensions that can escalate into civil war at any moment. As for El Salvador, regardless of the fact that Bukele allegedly cleaned the country of gangs, you still need to be careful and choose safer (more expensive) places that are not as cheap as some people think.

You can dodge the 180 days mandatory stay in Montenegro by registering a company there and providing proof it's your only one, pretty easy to do since you won't be running any other company in this case and that's it, you can get out of the country the next day take the crypto profits, and if you want to get rid of all the taxes owned in Montenegro for your company then with a bit of accounting I'm not going to recommend to anyone just ...hmm, bankrupt the said company to ..another one and I'll stop here. Nobody will come after you but it would still be not fully legal if I might word it this way.

As for selling BTC without paying tax, there are some physical exchanges in some EU countries where you can sell (for now) around EUR 1000 worth of crypto per transaction, and theoretically if you visit several such branches in one day, you could quite legally sell crypto in worth several thousand EUR. Consider that the fee for such a service is about 5% or more.

So, just to make sure, we're talking about dodging taxes and avoiding them here, not  tax "optimization", right?
Cause you can exchange your coins for fiat without the tax department knowing about it, but the moment you buy a 500 000 euros house with a  600 euros wage in the last 10 years all that has been for nothing. Plus, with the rules on limits for cash-only fiat payments in the EU you'll have again trouble spending huge amounts as each bank will ask you where you got that cash.


Right. Saylor's idea of borrowing against your Bitcoin is gaining popularity. You can use your Bitcoin as collateral to get a loan without selling it and triggering taxes. If Bitcoin's value goes up, you can refinance or pay off the loan, and if it goes down, you can add more Bitcoin to avoid issues.

Yeah, unless you run out of it, Luna and Celsius style!
275  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mempool Observer Topic on: March 16, 2024, 04:39:57 PM
I just watched the last few days, price drop + low fee and thought maybe the fee could go below 10 sat/vB. Maybe at some point during the weekend, but he certainly won't come to 3 sat/vB.

90vMB of fees on top of the 3 sat/vb ones, you would need 2/3 of a day with no incoming fees just to reach that, close to impossible even for the weekend.
Besides, I assume that going below 5sat/vb would trigger another wave of consolidations just like the 10sat/vb wall did, one week with no events, an increase in block speed back to at least normal (we're currently 22 blocks down the pace), and another weekend and we might reach it.

Still, surprisingly we had one huge spike in price, ordinals still being minted and no jump in fees, quite unexpected.
276  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: [Mar 2024] Fees are lower, wait for opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs on: March 16, 2024, 04:24:59 PM
Looking at his address, he's been doing that for a very long time. He's wasting massive amounts of money on transaction fees. I don't get it.

Deja-vu? Seems like the output wallet is labeled as Bitfinex, no surprise if they are behind it, I remember them from a year ago when they did it exactly when I was seding a tx:

And just when you thought everything is fine..
https://mempool.space/address/bc1quhruqrghgcca950rvhtrg7cpd7u8k6svpzgzmrjy8xyukacl5lkq0r8l2d

Bitfinex comes and tries to consolidate its dust with 20 blocks worth of tx paying even 50-60sat/b, because obviously, their script is detecting their own transactions in the mempool so they were trying to compete with their own so from 2sat/b in just a few hours we're at 40. When you think that there are still a ton of other exchanges waiting for this then probably it will take more than three weekends for everything to normalize.

And guess what, they are still doing it:
https://mempool.space/tx/7470af51e25700b7053781fc72ed6cffb5b4996aea4d1dcb91072d3b29820717

81sat/vb when the last block had 11sat/vb transactions included.

They just don't care, Okex is also paying twice as much:
https://mempool.space/tx/ec529afad640fbfb757e833b57bf50683bf3c29dee0bacc0485894ffc57b6339
when you change the clients 10 times the fees you pay for withdrawals maybe that difference is peanuts.
277  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Biden resurrects 30% crypto mining tax in new budget proposal on: March 16, 2024, 04:06:50 PM
it would seem like the only way out of this situation is to move to a proof of stake model because they can always track you down by your power useage.

And what, you think they can't track you if you go PoS?

Furthermore, it would take just a warrant and two major staking pools taken over and you've just granted one authority control over the coin, at least with farms they will need to keep them staffed, consuming power, replace gear, make somehow impossible for the others to get more gear so they can overpower the controlled one, with ETH for example you just go after lido and you have 30% of the staking eth, raid coinbase and kraken and you are close in for a majority!

If an ETH ETF is approved you might see BlackRock owning more than enouhg to control it alone completely, what solution are you going to have then?
278  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Operation of Bitcoin Fog Mixer, convicted for laundering $400 Million on: March 16, 2024, 03:17:55 PM
Roman must have been enjoying himself not knowing he's being watched. According to the report he was arrested in Los Angeles airport. I'm sure he got flagged at whatever country he boarded his flight from but they just wanted him to land on US soil so that they could arrest him.

Even if we assume he was not connected to Bitcoin fog at all, when you admit these:

Quote
Sterlingov says he “can’t remember” if he created Bitcoinfog.com and points out that he worked at the time as a web designer for a Swedish marketing company, Capo Marknadskommunikation
and
Quote
He concedes that he did send and receive payments to Bitcoin Fog as a user of the service seeking privacy, but says he didn’t use his bitcoins for anything illegal. “I think some of my transfers must have gotten mixed up with everything," he says.

and you have done so for millions, why the hell do you go to the States?
I don't get it, I didn't understand that for others who did live there, like James Zhong.
For god's sake you know the feds are waiting for just one thing to grab you and with double citizenship you just venture there?


Another reason that I can think of why they've taken so long doing this is to probably get those customers too and not just the service providers, that way they're getting more people in this money laundering operation.

They waited for Ilya Lichtenstein
https://www.ccn.com/news/ilya-lichtenstein-bitcoin-fog/
279  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: March 16, 2024, 03:02:58 PM
There is a solution, all you have to do is convince those companies to go public, depending on their listing they will be forced to present their financial data, and have someone leak the details (as most will not be completely public for a lot of reasons, including not aiding the competition) and you might get a number for the last 5 years.
Nothing too complicated, right?  Grin

so for the last eight weeks we gained 5.951%
price went up over 20% over last eight weeks.

hmm, isn't eight weeks in January, so more like over 60%?
Or is 20% per period..
I don't get this!

Anyhow if we want to look deeper into this as if we have nothing else to do, maybe a thing like % increase in income per th/s from last November at 5cents pwe kwh would be an indicator of what we can expect, but, the halving is next month, price is all over the place, and bitdeer has just released ...something..
https://ir.bitdeer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bitdeer-announces-new-4nm-bitcoin-mining-chip-seal01

So, popcorn with extra fudge times incoming

Quote
Latest Block:   834806  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.9928%  (183 / 194.70 expected, 11.7 behind)

Quote
Latest Block:   834935  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.8445%  (312 / 339.70 expected, 27.7 behind)

Only 129 blocks in the last 24 hours, if we go by downclocking this would be the mother of all downclocking in the universe, if not variance maybe more like one huge mining farm shutting down for refitting or maintenance or power failure or ..something!
I can't see anything that might help in the pool distribution, so open theory field:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
280  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Nigerian Telcos Have Blocked Nigerians access to all crypto exchange websites on: March 16, 2024, 02:45:32 PM
Not every knows about the DNS settings and some Nigerians might need it with the way things are moving.... If you have any good resources you can drop it.

Are you sure is a dns level ban?

As for changing it, it can't be any simpler than this, at least for Android as that's what most use, just go to settings, type DNS and you get the Private DNS settings, and you change it from automatic or off to custom as you add to Private DNS provider or DNS provider Hostname for example "dns.google" as I doubt the Nigerian authorities have enough power to force google to enter customs bans.

But as I said before, if this doesn't work using VPN might be risky, you don't know when exchanges will use that as an excuse to steal your coins, just because they let you do it for a while it doesn't mean they won't selectively pray on a few.

Over here in Greece there's also a very expansive list of online casinos being blocked, which includes most crypto casinos too. But it can be bypassed by simply changing the DNS on your computer. So I would assume most crypto users are already educated enough in computers to know how to bypass these silly blocks.

Same here somewhere back in 2016 or 2018 can't remember,  but in my case the moment I managed to access my favorite betting website I got one huge announcement about how they wouldn't support customers in my country anymore and to withdraw my balance as soon as possible as my account would be frozen until the site will get a license for operating here!




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