This is where you are wrong. 50% chance that there will be life imprisonment and 50% chance that there will be no life imprisonment  So are you willing to bet a coin on the life imprisonment? I'm all ears! Remember, CZ is not Navalny tripping on a wet towel in some prison and dying of 30 billets in his back! Hayes was accused of exactly the same with Bitmex, he did the same thing, surrender to the US coming to Hawaii, release on bail but not allowed to flee the country, he had no priors so he was sentenced for six months house arrest and just two years probation. Belo did the same, came to surrender got a probation offense, after one year he was allowed to go to Hong Kong, and that was that! Again this is the DoJ flexing its muscle and telling them to play nicely and they will get treated nicely, be some sort of wanna be rebel and loud mouth rascal and you're going to get it! But to be serious, I think the American intelligence services have collected a lot of incriminating evidence on CZ and in case of refusal of the deal, the prison term could be close to life imprisonment.
On what accusation?  You need to accuse somebody of a charge that comes with life imprisonment if found guilty! There is none that has this sentence in the current prosecution! |
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I'm certainly not calling him a dictator; that's how some media websites are portraying him, and I fully disagree. On top of that, he's receiving criticism that the economy is still in a bad state, that his Bitcoin adoption scheme wasn't effective, and that billions were wasted because Bitcoin had plummeted. However, Bitcoin has now surpassed $50,000. I don't know at what price El Salvador purchased it, but there's a high chance these claims may as well be abolished now.
These are the figures of GDP growth in 2022/2023 for central america: Guatemala 4.1% 3.5%
Panama 10.8% 5.1%
Honduras 4% 3.2%
Salvador 2.6% 2.7%
Nicaragua 3.8% 3.1%
Costa Rica 4.6% 4.1%
Belize 8.7% 4.2% So in short Salvador had the lowest GDP growth of all the countries in the region in two consecutive years! In order for Bitcoin to play a role in the growth to reach the median of the region they would need a return of investment of 180k per coin each year. Basically no, economically Salvador is going backwards, Bitcoin or no Bitcoin! Bitcoin is not a magic cure for an incompetent government, you can be pro Bitcoin and still stupid as f*** in your decision! |
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And if he doesn’t agree to the deal, the jury will probably give him more than one life sentence.
There is zero chances of him being handed a life sentence. Zero! The maximum maximum what the prosecutors can ask for on all charges combined would be ten years and that would be on all aggravating circumstances, but him pleading guilty in the first case cuts that! Zero chances for a life sentence, close to zero for the maximum 10 years and probably not even half for the 18 months. I doubt it will be more than 6 months and those will probably be in a FPC, some of those are way better than the housing in 80% of the world, not Norway but still way better than what people think of prisons. |
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Do you guys think I should erase my squabbling with Symmetrick from post #5 and make them reserved posts instead?
As you know, he deleted all his posts in this thread so it currently looks like a monologue. They are quite meaningless now.
The discussion made no sense in the first place so I don't know why you've kept it when he deleted his part. People that would visit the topic later on would be interested in the cards not some discussion between users they might not even remember or know. At this moment I just gave up on getting my next crypto card and instead I'll just do what I did before I started using Binance Visa and that's cashing out crypto p2p irl and putting money on my bank card, while those things that I want to pay anonymously usually have crypto payment options anyway.
That's what I did after the Wirex and Binance experience. It's simply not worth it to have those cards as main cards, if you want to spend crypto just exchange and do a SEPA and that's it, if it comes to wirex it's even cheaper with a bank transfer than their fees , plus with a national bank you at least get a bit of support good luck contacting their customer support departments. I forgot to bump the wirex topic with that but when the cards went down I opened a ticket why they are not working, I got the reply for it and the ticket closed 2 months later, of course the same we're working on it. Also, since somebody asked about Wirex a few pages ago, I can confirm that the old physical cards work now normally, so the ones issued a year ago, both for PoS transactions an ATMs, but really be careful if trying to withdraw money with it outside the eurozone, my friend went to an ING ATM and was asked for two methods of exchange, some forex rate and some interval bank or something, the forex option was coming with nearly 10% mark-up from euros to local currency. Don't know if it's the bank or the card but just a heads up! Aren't all cards issued by a company in the EU required to have 3DS as part of PSD2 in the EU?
I remember that 2021 was the end of the delay will it became mandatory. I think stealths cards are issued in United States, but you should better ask them how they are doing it. If those are issued in the US then that answers it, US cards are always finding a way to be a pain in the ass to use in Europe. |
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The cost per hash would be a lot higher anyway, you can only put so much in a single non-Bitmain miner, but would require the same controller and logic, I honestly see no point in these small miners, all of them will be used for lottery mining, and there is no such thing as "improve decentralization" with these expensive small miners, if you are not finding blocks -- you technically don't exist, hundreds of thousands of people need to operate these tiny miners to find a few blocks that don't even count.
I did said that's the only way to true decentralization, not that it could be done.... Theoretically having millions of those devices and 10-20 pools with the devices having an algorithm that randomly changes the pool every every now and then and with people not caring about how much that things consume and how much it earns you could achieve something decentralized like a like a torrent distribution network where everyone even with 10gb and 10mbit is contributing to the network. This system would still have a cost advantage, after the initial purchase users won't care that much about the cents/kwh, there is no maintenance guys, there is no rent no cooling, no wages to employees, but again that's theory on how could ....bla bla bla... The best thing we can hope for in terms of decentralization is that another country besides the U.S starts mining BTC heavily and takes 20-30% of the hashrate, until that happens, it's all fudge.
And as the hashrate grows and so does the need of electricity, how many countries out there could host it? If we say 1 million s21 that's at least 3500MW, assuming the country would need for that just 10% extra of its total generation and you're down to 16 countries. There are only 3 realistic possibilities, Canada (or the US but with polar bears and maple syrup), Russia and I really don't think that having that country host an important share of the hashrate would be that much of a great idea, and Brazil, probably the only realistic choice. But...nobody is moving there! |
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But, because of this recent appreciation of BTC, might not greater hash power arise, as it compensates for connecting older machines?
If we go for November numbers so a bit of the extreme: we were at 35k and went to 52k , that's close to 50% 447 exa and 583 exa now that's 30% so that much increase in hashrate is really chewing at the increase in income per th/s. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html#3m I seriously doubt that there is enough gear to make up for 18 exahash so 50 000 older S19 that lose money at 8 cents but are profitable at 9. So not a question of not being there but being there in such a number! And would all those have immediate access to all that power? 50k gear is still 150MW.. If we have a 2-3 maybe even 4% spike it will be because of new gear bought on credit not reactivation of tens of thousands of miners, or at least that's what I believe. |
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I think the difficulty is going to take a break for while +7.3% and now +8.2%, that makes up for 16.1% in a month, we're poking at 600exa so another 16% would be some half a million S21!!!! That would mean roughly - 1.750 MW - $2.5 billion (assuming no coupons) No way this is going to repeat itself! Latest Block: 830688 (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 92.9937% (97 / 104.31 expected, 7.31 behind) I'm not really going to bet on a negative but anything over 3% would still be insane. Btw , looking at that table and at https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-poolsBinance pool is losing marketshare seriously lately, I wonder how their "cloud' mining goes! |
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Basically what you're asking for is a graph that tracks the evolution of the pools' hash rates throughout the difficulty cycles, right?
Yeah, I kept spinning that explanation instead of just x goes to there! Did you want this information in graph form, or in a table?
Just table, as you can import it every week discrepancies could be seen easily, no need for extra work or fancy graphs! Since you're doing this from your own time there is no point spending too much on something that might not even reveal a thing, and even if my tinfoil hat theory is right we're not achieving anything, just realizing big guys are playing with us! |
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Now, my question is: is it a possibility that this upcoming halving is unique in that a new ATH is reached before it?
Everything is possible! Tossing a coin heads 6 times in a row and then one time not and again 6 times heads is a possibility, just like the price going up three times after the halving happened and just like till we had the previous cycle (which broke the no ATH before the halving rule you think of) eveything is a possibility. Drawing lines on past performance and thinking it will repeat itself time and time again till the end of the world is just crystal ball gambling! Regarding the above statement, how do you know there's more demand than supply (aside from the fact that bitcoin's price is currently rising)? And who's to say that demand won't suddenly drop? There's no guarantee that the halving is going to have an effect on the price of bitcoin at all, regardless of what happened in the past.
Of course there is no guarantee! And the whole thing about supply and demand and how mining 450 coins instead of 900 would reduce the supply is also ridiculous! Everyone was bullish back in November cause the halving is coming and the price will go up based on the reduction of mined coins and they were making the math like : 900 coins a day , price was 30 000 so 27 million which will change to just 13.5 millions day. Well now at these prices and assuming is not going over to 60k maybe we will have 450 x 52 000, so 23.4 million, the incoming supply after the halving is already nearly as the supply in November!!!! The whole influx of coins halving effect that we were supposed to have has already been reduced by the jump in price! Why? One of the possible, but currently, biggest reasons right now might be because those Gold ETF investors are selling their investments in exchange for the Bitcoin spot ETF. We're seeing horses being replaced by cars, a phenomenon when the new replaces the old.  If you're thinking of gold as the horses then you might change that to the early sledges before the wheel, gold has already been replaced a long time ago, SPDR is just peanuts compared to others despite having almost as much gold as Switzerland, it's just incurable goldbugs that keep those things alive. |
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Okay, I will try to prove to you that the fact of collateral is not important.
But you were the one who claimed that the the collateral was the one who would guarantee that CZ would have returned even with a conviction pending. How come that right now you want to prove the opposite? I am sure that CZ came to the US to be tried and agreed to pay a huge fine because he entered into an agreement with the US government.
If an agreement has been concluded, then the trial will be formal. You will agree that CZ would not have come to the USA without agreements.
Yeah, he agreed to let the US government do as it please with him! Yu know what the deal of pleading guilty means? That he has no choice when the ruling is served, the only way to appeal would be for him to be granted a new trial under the not guilty defense, meaning a far longer conviction. So he basically came to the country, signed up for a deal that will remove his appeal no matter what the sentence is and gave up almost eveything just, so to not be hunted down and still be brought in front of a judge. But everything is #safu! Binance founder CZ’s sentencing date postponed to late April The criminal sentencing for Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has been pushed back to April 30. Looks like they enjoy slow cooking him! Probably the DOJ flexing its muscle for show as message he's done for , this was like the final warning that they can toy with him as they please, probably the lower 6 month sentence that will be cut to 3 for first time offense in minimum security, then he will go and enjoy his life but without touching an exchange or crypto again. |
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Throughout this year I will present data on how each difficulty cycle went. With details of how many blocks each pool mined, and the amounts of fees received.
Would be also nice to have the market share of pools added in a table to keep tabs on the evolution for their hashing power. BTC is doing such a thing here: https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-poolsbut it's annoying since if you have something weird in the last week it also influences the last month so you're left wondering how much things have changed from the previous 3 weeks. If you're using excel it would be pretty easy, just export the % of blocks from each epoch into a new sheet. The thing with this is that I really want to see how those heat/cold waves in Texas that supposedly shut down a lot of the hashrate that should be part of just Foundry are rely affecting the distribution, I'm right now at something like 90% sure some of the big guys are splitting theirs with multiple pools. Or they are doing this for some of their farms, or something like that. |
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Only cards with 3ds that I know can be found on stealths.net, but do your own research.
Aren't all cards issued by a company in the EU required to have 3DS as part of PSD2 in the EU? I remember that 2021 was the end of the delay will it became mandatory. Their rates are also not the best. It's always 5$ + 2.5%. It only pays off if you use high values.
I can't believe I spent 5 minutes looking at this:  used the calculator, started from 250 then from 282.96 to see how they managed to get 2.5% to be 10% till I realized that the final price is in $ not euros. Anyhow, quite curios on this, do those card work with ATMs? I might carry one with a few hundred $ with me on a holiday as second emergency fund and dump it after, not to go again through the same thing as in my last vacation. But now way I would go though KYC with some shady company, I would rather just order a second card from a local bank instead. |
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Yeah, that just earned you another negative, bud.
I just loves those topics, whenever I see somebody with a red tag coming and playing the innocent I always fell tempted to bet with how many extra tags he's going to leave the topic! But this was a slow one, only 1 , I would have put my money on 3 at least...let's wait a bit more! Let's say the accounts which I said I run using bots were spamming, why don't they just get banned, And this account too, Story done.
Good! Ask Theymos for it! |
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Instead of arguing, we could just help each other.
Why? So what could we do in this case, the whole world could get near free levels of products, very cheap compared to anywhere else, and very good material as well, and in return pay China.
Yeah, that boat has sailed a long time ago! China is not cheap anymore and moreover they have tried to use that as a weapon, so one by one companies are starting to quit China, everyone should look at the labels of the stuff they buy and see that things made in China have been slowly on the replace with a ton of other countries. And nowhere is that more true than in the US itself: https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-us-top-trading-partner-china-economic-nearshoring-trade-agreement-2024-2Between 2022 and 2023, the value of goods imported to the US from Mexico increased by almost 5%, up to over $475 billion, according to the Commerce Department. Chinese imports fell 20% in the same time period, to $427.2 billion, just slightly above Canada. Companies are moving out and they are not looking back, they know that once the shitstorm really starts happening the ones left will be in far more trouble, the CCP will need a scapegoat and a piggybank to raid and the ones left will have the same fate as the one that remained in Russia. This is about global market ripples, not just a falling stock market. Sneezing by China spreads a cold worldwide. Their economic stabilization will affect commodities pricing and trade dynamics.
No it won't, China is not the US! Look at the stock market, China has lost 7 trillion while the US has gained more than that, just five companies gaining 3 trillions. They are in deep trouble yet the world doesn't care, they are filled with bankruptcy, losing stocks a demographic collapse yet nobody really sees an effect in the western word. |
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Bumping this cause...we have a new record in the lol...energy crisis  So gas is now 68% cheaper than it was in the week before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And gas is becoming cheaper in Europe than in Asia, with gas storage over 60% full and nice weather outside, LNG is being diverted from Europe to Japan and South Eats Asia as prices there ar 10% higher than in Europe! As for the $300 per barrel of oil....all the cuts in the world and still OPEC hasn't been able to keep WTI over $80, again laughable since oil was at $85 the same day two years ago, before the Russian fiasco! But yeah, energy crisis, Europe is going to freeze, all those things... I wonder how long till the head of Rosneft and Gazprom start jumping from their windows |
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Stompy, how is it possible that you have not stumbled upon danieleither's posts before? Cheesy
I'm getting old, I was so sure he was from the US, I don't know why the whole s21 cable discussions made me think even more so.. Now I'm wondering who am I forgetting right now and who was I mistaken him for You're mikey right ?!?  But isn't that what we do here? help people with what we know for free? I have been posting in this board for 6 years or so, and never charged anyone for the help and knowledge I share unless they want to pay for it themselves, obviously, if OP wants a full plan then that's a different subject, but if it's just a general question of how much will wiring cost for 50 gears, or what size of transformer would they need, I think many including yourself will be willing to help.
Well, OP came asked and ... Date Registered: February 06, 2024, 09:37:17 PM
Last Active: February 06, 2024, 09:53:13 PM But the reason why I also said his request is going to cost him is because he said "list your detailed cost of building" It's one thing to tell somebody you need 100m of cable, you need a transformer you need x and y and a completely different thing listing the cables at price perm, giving him quotes on the price of transformers by supplier and factoring in even the price handymen have per hour. |
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FeeBuddy just posted a few days ago 11 sat vB.
Ofc you can get something like 11 or 12 Sar vB anytime now. Maybe even 9.
Fees are low now. It is already a good time to make transactions.
11sat/b did happen multiple times but under 10 will be really tough, it will trigger a lot of consolidations, not that they aren't happening even now but the other bad news is that the adjustment is in a few hours, we had 7.3% in the previous epoch an not probably 7.8-7.9% up, pretty hard to have another 7% to keep the same number of extra blocks mined, we're 143 blocks ahead so basically we had an extra day of transactions capacity. That being said I've consolidated 10 larger inputs at 12sat/vb, just to have them in my spending wallet ready if we go into another orc/src/brc/trc/mmorpg whatever madness. Anyhow, this is just beautiful:  I have seen here or somewhere else that someone has to consolidate their six- to seven-year-old TX's.
I know a guy |
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some relief we are at 8.9%
Back in the frying pan, or is it in the fire from the pan? Latest Block: 830193 (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 109.6655% (1618 / 1475.40 expected, 142.6 ahead)
Next Retarget (latest): Thursday at 1:07 PM (in 2d 13h 38m 28s)
Two days to go and we're at 179!!!!! blocks int he last 24 hours, seems almost impossible to get it back under 7, but who knows Price broke 50k so no slowdown coming from there, maybe quite the opposite, I wouldn't be surprised to see bitmain rising prices! |
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But it won't be a crypto card, not much of a card itself actually, they are just generating you a virtual number every time you want to purchase without apple pay.. If you have already a card that you can load with crypto you could just select that and pay directly with it. What is nice in this one (if Apple keeps the feature) is that you could activate and deactivate it whenever you want it, so perfect for paying on shady websites and not care bout recurring payments. That again, not a crypto card! Trocador was (and probablyl is) legit for swaps, used it for monero<>bitcoin through their partners, never encountered a thing, never had to contact them even with C ranked exchanges. As for the card itself, to be honest I wouldn't trust a KYC debit card 100% no matter who provides it to you, Visa can always pull the plug on them in an instant. It will work fine , till it won't!  |
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but you would need millions of 10 watt devices. as you would want the product to have 1%-2% of the hash rate.
also would need many nodes.
Yup, millions and even hundred of millions, as to come closer to the hashrate right now you would need over 800 millions chips ... But if we manage to get more of those and not just at 10W, maybe even higher with 50W, and as their hashrate will start making larger farms income go down you could probably achieve some level of true decentralization with fewer devices. Imagine how big farms would feel with the halving coming and knowing half of the hashrate is run as fancy wallclocks and their owners don't give a damn about the price per kwh? |
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