Are you still arguing with these trolls? Seriously, why are you trying to teach these pigs to sing? Let the kids play in their sand box with their dog poo, not your problem The MicroCash kids can play where they like, when they start trying to scam people that don't know better into using their rigged coin then I care. If we just ignore these morons they are going to scam everyone they can. If we make noise and question their rigged system google will index it and anyone doing due-diligence ( which isn't nearly enough people judging by how many people handed over BitCoins to bitcoinica ) will find it. Less people will be scammed and less damage will be done to the reputation of crypto-currencies in general. You cannot protect everyone. Eventually people will have to learn to wise up and do their homework before jumping head first. It's all part of the natural cycle. Unfortunate? Yes. But it's for their own good. It's been well established that Scamcoin is a sham, and anyone who fails to see that deserves to get ripped off, as that's the only way they'll learn.
|
|
|
Actually, if you look carefully I NEVER take the value of bitcoin into consideration, beside what I can get Today in terms of Coins or Hardware. It's as if you won a contest and got to choose between 1000 BTC or a 8.2 GH/s FPGA machine. That is why I used the terms 'invalid conclusion' and 'flawed', as your goal is to extract value. Today value is measured in Dollars, it is the world standard in which all other valuations are made. You have, in theory, $5000; You want to buy hardware that costs $5000 or Bitcoins that cost $5000. You are seeking either break even or profit, measured in what? Dollars. For that, you will need to know what the value of a Bitcoin will be in the future. And then, you can determine what is the most profitable direction, hardware or outright purchasing of Bitcoins. Exactly, and at the end of the day year you will either have X bitcoins or Y bitcoins. My question is, will X be larger than Y. the vallue per bitcoin will be the same, whether its $1 or $100, what matters is how many you have. Also, I'm surprised that $5000 is so disputed. Is 5k that close to the mark?
The $5000 is an arbitrary number. It's just an investment, $1 or $1million, that's up to the investor to decide. The variable here is what you are buying with the funds available. From my perspective, no FPGA bought today will be able to beat a direct bitcoin buyout. Unless you can write the cost of hardware off of your "taxes paid on capital gains", that's where things get murky, as I've presented a rather ideal scenario for hardware.
|
|
|
The dev team is polishing things up before release. As the MicroCash.org site states, the release was scheduled around the "tenth". Tell me this, what is up with that recent theft of over 18,000 BTCs??? Just another reason why it is time to move on with improved technology....
Your a stupid fool, That was the 19yr old's Trading Website Bitcoinica that got robbed of 18k. Same thing could happen to ANY currency. Are you still arguing with these trolls? Seriously, why are you trying to teach these pigs to sing? Let the kids play in their sand box with their dog poo, not your problem
|
|
|
Is this all assuming a stagnant difficulty? some things are note factored in such as change in difficulty
is that "not" factored in, or "noted" EDIT: If you want a more accurate estimate, you should assume a constant increase and do a step integral like I did here, it makes a BIG difference when you look at long term returns.
|
|
|
Oh man i would kill to get my hands on some of these, too bad importing them is illegal Only 1! BTC
|
|
|
Ok, I will tell you how it will be During next 20 years you will be building Facebooks 2, Instagrams 3, Friendfinders 4 etc... All these projects will fail miserably... One day you will sit down and tell to yourself - "Oh my God, how stupid I was when I was 19 years old... I had everything - money, name, new technology and I blew it off for some stupid startups that next year nobody remembers of..." Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do, and there's no two ways about it. Good luck and best wishes man.
|
|
|
Looking at my previous model, given a steady difficulty increase, the total number of bitcoins mined looks asymptotic, which is really weird, to see the reward of 10 GHs reach 0.01 BTC per 14 days But that's what the calcs show, and plugging in 3,300 MHs, at 5% diff re-targeted at 14 day periods, yields 348 BTC in a year, and only 417 four years later. Not sure that is the best premise to use. Perhaps you should review your calculus and differential equations for your next financial modeling. I'd be interested in which premise you could come up with for this situation. As you can see, I'm doing a manual step calculation here, not an integral function. And looking at those charts, since the crash, the difficulty has been climbing at reasonably steady rate of about 4.895% per retarget, so my assumption is pretty close. Actually, if you look carefully I NEVER take the value of bitcoin into consideration, beside what I can get Today in terms of Coins or Hardware. It's as if you won a contest and got to choose between 1000 BTC or a 8.2 GH/s FPGA machine.
Another potential flaw in your logic. Like a gold mine which produces a commodity but has input costs, like fuel and trucks, denominated in a different currency; the FPGA machine has operational costs that are fiat currency denominated and must be born by someone and therefore has opportunity cost even if you can have those costs born by someone besides you.The cost of electricity in a year for that scenario (using $0.10 / KWhr), is $356. But that assumption is covered here: This calculation is assuming: - [...]
- No Electricity cost
- [...]
The FPGA machine also likely has an expected salvage value just like the used dumptrucks and gold mine would after the asset has been depleted. You fail to take into account these calculations with the discounted future cash flows.
That is true, but since the value of bitcion mining hardware is tied to how many bitcoins it can mine, that value is very low at the end of a year, and it's simply impossible to predict it's value retention. If you have a suggestion, I would love to hear it and take it into account here. But unlike a gold mine the FPGA machine has alternate uses that could possibly generate more revenue than the value of generated bitcoins and use that revenue to purchase bitcoins (this ties in with my earlier post about difficulty; miners who can generate more value from their processing power from an alternate activity will reallocate processing power from bitcoin mining to activity X).
Please name one use of the FPGA that would yield more bitcoins than mining. If you are just predictiong that there may be a use some time in the future, then that is an even harder guess to make than the original question I posed. You have also failed to take into consideration any tax implications; For example, 179 deductions for hardware, deductions for electricity, capital gains, etc.
I would like to point out that there are no set Tax rules for Bitcoin yet, but if we use them as investment options, as most people will probably do, then you bring up a VERY good point relating to hardware/electricity deductions. Providing that Bitcoin succeeds (if it doesn't, then you're no better off if you'd bought bitcoins outright), then you make back the value of the hardware when you realize your investment by converting to fiat and subtracting the cost of hardware from the taxes you owe on your capital gains. Brilliant
|
|
|
I think having Bitcointalk as a general Crypto currency forum is exactly how such a forum would start. Bitcoin is after all the original crypto currency, and the rest are heavily based on its code. It's the primary currency, paving the way for the rest of them. Except SC, that one can burn in hell
|
|
|
$858 $259 premium or 51.8 BTC @ $5 1 single generates .47586147 per day (Difficulty @ 1733207.51384839). 108 days to generate 51.8 BTC (yes, big assumptions on difficulty staying constant). Seeing single delivery times are now down to ~65 days... Hey, if he can make a buck on re-selling these to someone, then all the more power to him EDIT: Thread crapping sure, but you make a very good point, even if it may not be in OPs interests
|
|
|
These cards are expensive for the hashing speed they get, but are still excellent gaming cards, so this may do better on eBay than here. Also try BitMit.net
|
|
|
I'm always concerned when a company has fancier graphics than products
|
|
|
This would do better as a contest, but I'm sure the community will come up with something eventually
|
|
|
By my Calculations, even at a measly 5% difficulty increase per re-target, the hardware wouldn't have paid off even after a year. In your argument, Bitcoin will continually lose value over time because of difficulty increases. This conclusion is invalid because you don't take projected Bitcoin value into consideration. You assume a static, unchanging Bitcoin value over time while difficulty does change over time. You are intentionally weighting your chosen outcome. Actually, if you look carefully I NEVER take the value of bitcoin into consideration, beside what I can get Today in terms of Coins or Hardware. It's as if you won a contest and got to choose between 1000 BTC or a 8.2 GH/s FPGA machine. [...]
[...] For example, there are currently 3,924 GIGAMINING available at 1.51 BTC each. $5,000 would buy 662 of them or 3,310 MHs of production in perpetuity with no downtime or labor. That is the opportunity cost which you could then project for a discount rate and difficulty changes to model for 1,000 BTC NPV. Looking at my previous model, given a steady difficulty increase, the total number of bitcoins mined looks asymptotic, which is really weird, to see the reward of 10 GHs reach 0.01 BTC per 14 days But that's what the calcs show, and plugging in 3,300 MHs, at 5% diff re-targeted at 14 day periods, yields 348 BTC in a year, and only 417 four years later.
|
|
|
Oh yeah, I almost forgot the user interface...
|
|
|
Just saw BFLs next offering: 666 Terahashs/s ALL the kilowatts
|
|
|
For generating bitcoin, the exchange rate does not matter (a rise in difficulty is what reflects the rise in popularity and the technological progress in his model). For buying now it does not matter neither. That's because my question is based on a decision made today. As stated previously, generating bitcoins does not depend directly on the value of bitcions. You are projecting into the future 12 months from Today the difficulty increases which shows a reduction in coin generation, highlighting a loss in production without determining what Bitcoins value is going to be 12 months from now. Your statistics are painting an inacurate picture of potential profit. That's because it doesn't matter what they're worth in $ if what you're interested in is how many bitcoins either option nets you in 12 months. And if it weren't for the 12 week delivery (during which you miss out on ~300 BTC), I'd gladly forego the 200 BTC difference and electricity costs if it meant I got to have a piece of kickass Bitcoin Mining hardware which may one day become a Bitcoin Artifact of sorts.
|
|
|
and as far as watching my tone, how's this... quit being an ass, yer just making yourself look small. -- Smoov Good thing there's an "Ignore" button, to shut out the trolls
|
|
|
By my Calculations, [...] Your calculations are flawed because they utilize a fixed value of Bitcoin based on today while all of your other numbers vary into the future. If you want a more realistic profit profile then you need to project the growth in Bitcoin value to coinside with your other projected growth variables. Drawing a line from the beginning of Bitcoin value to todays Bitcoion value and then extend into your desired future cashout date, say 12 months, will give your spread sheet a more realistic perspective of Bitcoin mining profitability. Of course, this assumes the projected growth of Bitcoin value is constant. That's because my question is based on a decision made today. As stated previously, generating bitcoins does not depend directly on the value of bitcions. ie, if you bought 1000 coins today ($5k worth), and a year later your hardware ($5k worth) would have generated 821 btc, you're still ahead if you had bought bitcoins outright, whether BTCs are worth $1 or $100 The value of the hardware however needs to be accounted for, as is the delivery time of said hardware. How do you do that? $0.4 per MHs sounds unrealistic. mufa23 is only quoting the cost of the GPU's because he may have utilized existing MB/PSU/CPU/RAM. So for mufa23 he only had to spend $800 to become a miner. His next 2 GH/s will cost $.60 per MH/s. That's what I'm assuming. Unfortunately you can't plug a GPU into the wall and just mine away. $270 - Three 5830s $20 - CPU $5 - RAM $45 - MoBo $50 - PSU
$390 for a 1GH/s rig.
Looking at those they seem like cherry picked numbers and cannot be found in bulk. Also the avg hash rate for a 5830 is 300. Not bad for a $100 card tho. And if you've ever run a rig for over a month, you know a $50 PSU just isn't gonna hold up.
|
|
|
I am roughly paying $2.5MH/s. I spent $800 for 2GH/s. Which brings in about 1.2BTC/day (Mining at EMC). At $5/Bitcoin, I will have paid itself off in around 160 days (5.3 months). With the remaining 205 days left in the year, I would make 246BTC at current difficulty. Multiple those coins by 5 (dollars), and you come up with $1,230 of pure profit.
So now knowing this, I would spend $5k for roughly 12.5GH/s (7.5BTC/day). Which would pay itself off after 160 days, bringing in a total profit of 1,537.5BTC ($7,687.5 USD). Now if at the end of the year I could sell off the hardware for half of what I bought it for, I would have turned 5k into 10k within the year.
Sounds worth it to me.
How do you do that? $0.4 per MHs sounds unrealistic.
|
|
|
|