I am not regurgitating anything.

Bitcoin is not reflecting anything at the moment, apart the wish, from a large group of people, to invest in a new technology.

If there are 21 million bitcoiners, and each of them wants some bitcoin, he will buy what he can.

If you think the average bitcoiner will have 160000$ holdings you are deeply wrong.
As you would be wrong thinking the average bitcoiner now has 270$ holdings...

Wealth of bitcoiners doesn't reflect ANYTHING about their wealth.

I just posted the thread with a 21 millionth bitcoiner as compared to the cap of 21 million bitcoins (which is also wrong, because it's not exactly 21 millions).

So in this "thought experiment" you should only imagine HOW MUCH REQUEST FOR BITCOINS THERE WILL BE, when bitcoiners will hit n. 21 millions.
If growth would be linear, and we are now 1.5 millions then when we'll hit 21 millions the count would be 21/1.5*270 (actual price) = 3780$ only.
But there are more factors to put in, like the daily traffic in example, and I don't think the value increase in a linear way, I also think the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is underestimated at the moment.
But all of this goes into the equation, you can say whatever value you want a Bitcoin will have, when the 21 millionth bitcoin user will want to buy some bitcoin.
He will buy what he can or what he wants.
Doesn't have anything to do with average holdings.
Nobody has transformed his entire wealth in Bitcoins. Nobody.

I wrote HOW, and I wrote in the simplest way I can. Bye.

Man, think in fractions.
If one Bitcoin in future will value 1 million dollars, this means you will be able to buy with one Bitcoin, 1 million dollars of stuff.
That doesn't mean that a person that has 50000$ can't buy a fraction of Bitcoin: that fraction that evaluates to 50000$, and still buy stuff for 50000$ worth of Bitcoins.
Can you understand this mechanism?
It's only difficult to accept it because of the STRETCH that will be reached by Bitcoin value.

People ARE selling $... for Bitcoins.
It happens all the time

You make a new fiat? And for what? It has the same amount of problem of the old fiat, like just to say one, being centralized.
Here YOU are being just stubborn and making a weak figure.

If the price of led rised to insane heights... they would buy less of that led light, because it would mean that fraction of a led light would light up like their light bulb. You just can't reason in fractions.

That last guy giving some uBTC for those zimbadollars, would probably spend them in the last shop that still accept them... and the owner of the shop would probably then use them to warm his house by burning them.
You can't know, and that's why I gave you the example of stupid people.

The only way fiat centralized currency COULD stay forever, is if governments will find a way to stop cryptocurrencies adoption.
If this doesn't happen, they will one day disappear.

My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding.

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES.
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. Or more possibly, 5 uBTC.
 And those may be his savings of one life.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

It's not the first time a country replaces its own currency with another one.
Latest example is Zimbabwe: http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-zimbabwe-1-will-cost-35-000000000000000-local-dollars/article7309953.ece

I don't know how this worked in the past, but seeing Bitcoin is not being possibly regulated in any way, it will probably go that early adopters like us are paying nearly nothing for it now, while in the future the price for one Bitcoin will increase considerably. Or better: exponentially, as we are just a small fraction of world population.

Now, this doesn't mean a person will have to buy always 1 BTC: that's simply impossible, also because there's only 21 millions.
So it's already in the blueprint that people will use mBTC or even smaller amounts like uBTC will be used for everyday exchanges.

Now the Bitcoin market cap is over 4 billion $.
This will continue to grow, up to a point where the Bitcoin market cap and the $ in circulation will be the same.
At that point, not only Bitcoin will grow in value due to increased market request, but $ inflation will begin to become unbearable.

The last persons on the planet buying Bitcoin, will buy it at a value that could well be 1 BTC = 1 billion $ (of todays value, in future, $ inflation could change that A LOT, it could be trillions).
But those persons won't be buying 1 BTC, they will buy a fraction of it, like 2 mBTC in example, or some uBTC in exchange of some thousand dollars: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86894.0

So don't think that "one day there will be no $ to buy BTC, so that's impossible".
Think that 1) everything is possible, but even more, 2) replacement will happen slowly, more probably everybody will have some $ together with BTC for a long time yet.
Shops will accept BTC and $ for a long time.
But one day many shops will just want to cut out $ and live happy with BTC.

There's also another scenario: once one government will see Bitcoin can't be stopped, and its fiat currency being overwhelmed in inflation, it will declare its fiat currency obsolete and make it mandatory to replace it with Bitcoin before it goes out of course.
That will be probably the point when all fiat currencies will collapse and Bitcoin price will boost in a completely unpredictable manner: nobody will want fiat currency anymore, so from that point on, fiat currency will get away from the scenario, because it will be less and less accepted in venues.

Ye, still predictions can be made, and the game is fun 

Mhhh that's quite unrealistic: consider all those companies that need hundreds or thousands of Bitcoins to work, like in exampe remittances services.
But you are right that some people will just want that ONE BTC in their pocket, because why not
The problem is, price will rise... and rise... and rise... to a point where very few people will manage to get that ONE btc.
Bitcoin value will be so high that only fractions of BTC will be bought by common people.
That's why we early adopters, even today buyers, are very lucky people.

Of course it's like you say: that 21 millionth user I chose is just to make a "round count" with all the BTC that can ever be mined.

We are already more than 1 million around the globe now, probably around 1.5 millions.
I think we'll be 2 millions by the end of 2015.
Considering a geometric growth, we'll probably be 4 millions by the end of 2016 (I still take into account the fact that ALL of us actually using Bitcoins are open minded, tech savvy, more or less young guys, and for the rest of people it's more difficult to make them Bitcoiners, so there WILL be a brake into mainstream penetration, to geometric growth).
7 millions by end 2017.
12 millions by end 2018.
We'll probably hit 21 millions Bitcoiners before end 2019.




Mhhh don't consider the 21 millionth bitcoin, but the 21 millionth BITCOINER 

If my prevision is right, by 2019, the 160000$ growth may be even very underestimated.
Now more actors are coming into the game: banks, credit cards, altcoins and more.
There will be a period of "natural selection" that could keep slowing down Bitcoin adoption while people try this and that altcoin or credit card alternative, only to find that, in the end, Bitcoin is really all they need

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

You won't be cashing out... ever, if Bitcoin will hold up, because Bitcoin will REPLACE fiat currency.
You will just... use it.

Nobody knows that, only estimates can be taken.

Found this article stating 1.3 million users: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-users-approach-5-million-mark-2019-juniper-research-reports/

But I suspect is far below that number.
I'd say we are around 700000-900000 holding more than 0.2 BTC of value.

It's not IF, but WHEN.
And when that'll happen, Bitcoin trustees will have to add a couple of decimals after the dot.

But 10% of world population is not 21 million, it's 750 millions.

You see? Everything can be done
Instead of converting immediately Bitcoins to fiat, hold them for 15 days.

I think the second problem is just a matter of choice.
As basically nobody can know how the Bitcoin market will evolve, they can choose the politics they want.

Uh ok, there was a misinterpretation... Localbitcoins has escrow already, why Bitpay or Coinbase can't set it up as well?

This is a thing I love to talk about.
My thought is that REPUTATION is the biggest point in favour of a cryptocurrency at the moment.
This because cryptocurrencies are NOT trusted by the mainstream, and thus the one that will boom is the one that will have most users, because more users mean more reliability.
This is why Bitcoin is becoming more and more solid along time.

But of course there are other considerations to do.
Bitcoin is NOT the best technology around. And this could be its damnation in the future.
BUT, it's also true that Bitcoin technology CAN be updated.
So, let's say that Bitcoin WILL be kept up to date technologically, WHAT would a person push to invest in, say, Litecoin, instead than in Bitcoin?

Think about it: Bitcoin is the most implemented crypto around the world.
Sure, you can't use it so often or easily yet, but that's growing, while other crypto are at the bar. Frozen in there. Just used as a mean of exchange between themselves.
So get into a common person, that will want to buy a crypto in 2 years, why would they orient to Litecoin, instead than Bitcoin, that has been adopted by far more people, implemented in far more shops, and has (and will probably have) a far more solid value?

Be clear that I LIKE very much Litecoin, because it's capped higher, and I consider the 21 million Bitcoin cap too low.
But as Bitcoin CAN be made more granular, also this problem could disappear probably very quickly in the future, if needed.

Anyway, this is the real slot machine of the future: will altcoins survive? How many of them?
I think maybe 3 or 4 will survive, for a period and, unless Bitcoin is destroyed for some reason we can't imagine yet, other crypto will disappear in the end.

Yes but it's not impossible at all.
When you use Paypal, and you ask for refund, you are not receiving some banknotes, the exact banknotes you gave to the shopper, right?
Paypal is granting for you.
Well the same should happen with Bitcoin.
I can't see a difference.
Sure, it must be a LARGE company, able to take into its shoulders some small fraud, but if you think that Bitcoin costs are far below the ones Paypal has to pay, it won't need too much time until a company like this will appear.
It could be Paypal itself that will begin to adopt Bitcoin, exactly to just cut legs to any other big company that could enter and take their place.

That wasn't the main problem in his post, dude... would have been glad if it was 

You don't seem to understand what I meant.
I didn't talk about WALLETS, I talk about USERS.
I know there's a huge number of wallets out there and they in no way represent the real number of users.
I myself had installed and uninstalled at least 6-7 different software wallets and subscribed to several websites with webwallets.

Also, it looks you are really badly informed on how the MtGox question brought the value of Bitcoin to the stars.
It was MtGox itself manipulating the market and sending Bitcoin value to the moon, NOT the fact that MtGox was caught.

Also, there was no real "value loss", unless you bought Bitcoin at those unreal prices (and those who did... well... lol), because the REAL price was before MtGox manipulated the market.

The loss of value is due to several reasons, but nobody can say which is the most influencing.
Personally, I think many are selling Bitcoin because they didn't see their investment come true in an year or two. That is naive, but they are probably dumping because of this. They expected Bitcoin to be adopted by millions and millions of people in a couple years? Extremely naive.
Also, mining difficulty hit a wall and this took off some value as well.
But just wait that the number of Bitcoins goes from 25 to 12.5 per block...

So, basically, if you think that Bitcoin will decrease in value, as more and more people will increase its reputation and adopt it, you are COMPLETELY out of way.

Why you say that refund is impossible?

The system should have one additional field of Bitcoin address in case of refund, that the user should fill as well when buying.

That's as easy as that, or am I missing something?