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1  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Mining pools and the long-term viability of commercial bitcoin mining on: September 26, 2020, 10:39:20 PM
True, the larger the market cap the harder it is to move to either direction, this the reason why coins with smaller market cap outperform BTC in bull markets.

Market cap = 100k, if you add 100k that is a 100% increment
Market cap = 1,000,000 , needs 1,000,000 to do 100%

I am not saying that we will maintain the same base and ratio but going up has no limit.

1st bull run:

Oct 2010 - June 2011
0.1$        - 32$             > 351,000%

2nd bull run:

Nov 2011 - Nov 2013
1.92$       - 1050$       >60,000% (17% of the first run)

3rd bull run

Aug 2015 - Dec 2017
200$        - 20,000$    >10,000% (16% of the second run)

Speculation:

Jan 2019 - Dec 2022?
3000$     -  70,000$  > 1600% (16% of the third run)

Sounds too far stretched?  Maybe, but remember according to the math I did in the first post, we only need 80k by 2032, which means 10 more years, given that fiat money loses it's value to almost everything that has any sort of limited supply.

one more thing to keep in mind that Bitcoin isn't the only coin miners can mine, those coins grow in value as well, they help keep the mining industry large enough for newcomers.
2  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Mining pools and the long-term viability of commercial bitcoin mining on: September 26, 2020, 09:14:41 PM
I said so before the halving, when the price was at 7.5k, that after halving its price cannot be 15k (what you wish), but anything under. so 9k~11k fits perfectly fine.

The halving has little to nothing to do with price, the trading volume alone is many times the total new supply, in fact even if we were to mine what's left in a year it's the only 2.6M BTC against the existing  18.4M BTC, I have explained in details why the effect of bitcoin halving is minor on price (will try to find the topic and paste it here), so now that we got the halving-price relation thing out of the way, let me explain to you why do I think that bitcoin will MOST likely hit 80k in 2032.

Since you mentioned Gold, Gold has a market cap of 9 trillion dollars, let's pretend that in 2032 all 21 million bitcoins are in circulation including the ones we lost for good.

21,000,000*80,000 = 1.6 Trillion $ ONLY.

Keep in mind that by the time we get there, banks would have probably printed a few trillion dollars and brought the value of fiat even lower, which makes 1.6 trillion $ in 12 years from now pretty much doable, in fact, easily doable.

I think a much larger market cap is possible for bitcoin, less than 8% of the world population own bitcoin, I believe this counts those who own a single satoshi on their addresses, fiat supply is incredibly large - it makes bitcoin market cap seems like a drop in the ocean, bitcoin market cap (117B) is almost equal to Jeff Bezos's capital alone which is 113B, a 100 billion $ is peanuts as far as the world economy is concerned,
if 10 rich people invest 10% of their money in bitcoin - that alone will take it to 20K in no time.

Again, I am not claiming that I am right and you must be wrong, since we both are "speculating" the price of bitcoin in the future, we both can be wrong, I guess let's wait for 12 years and come back to this topic to see who had the better guess for the future. Grin
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Pools (Altcoins) / Re: Hash.Green - Solar Powered Mining Pool - [Small to Large Miners Accepted] on: September 25, 2020, 10:47:26 PM
The idea behind this, was simply to reduce the Carbon footprint left behind, by us miners. 

Quote
that is a total of 290, rounded up to 300 Watt Hours. 

Quote
  If you'd like, please point your miners over there and give back to our beautiful and wonderful home, we call Earth.  Smiley

I don't want to sound mean but how exactly are you going to "reduce the Carbon footprint" and save the "beautiful and wonderful home, we call Earth by reducing a 300w consumption which is 1- unnecessary the well-being of planet earth 2-increases the usage of carbon which is caused by some of the mining activities.

Even if I was to think of this as a significant improvement, it doesn't change a thing, miners moving from a pool that runs on regular power to your solar-based pool reduces the power consumption by exactly 0, it's not like those pools are going to shut down because we moved to your pool.

I am not against "green earth" but I can't see how that is relevant to a pool which makes its money from miners who could be using Coal-burning power plants which makes 65% of the total power energy in China, and given that the majority of miners are in China, it's safe to assume that at least half of them run their miners on Coal-burning power plants, 38% of the world power generation comes from Coal-burning power plants which mean a good portion of the rest of the world's miners also participate in generating carbon dioxide.

My advice, promote your pool by focusing on other factors such as fees and payment method, if it's PPS, do you have any pool reserves? how much is it? non of these essential information exists on your pool's website.




4  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Antminer S17 Pro Power_Lost on: September 25, 2020, 09:37:50 PM
[...]

You make perfect sense, many things in these miners are hard to be explained because they don't make sense, but I have personally had issues that did seem to be PSU related and ended up being hash boards related, I initially thought of it the way you do now, it's pretty simple, the control board controls both the PSU and the hash boards, so any power related issue must be PSU or control board, but well, shit happens.

I encoured a similar power issue on a T17, I don't remember the exact error in the kernel log, but it was "power xx error", I tried a working PSU and a working control board and that didn't fix it, I played with the hash boards and the miner worked, it turned out that one of the hash boards was causing the issue, the miner worked perfectly with 2 boards.

What I did next was installing that "bad" hashboard on another T17, and guess what? it worked without an issue, I installed the hash board which I took out from the second T17 on the first T17 and it worked as well! do I have a technical or scientific explation for this? No, and i am sure even Bitmain themselves don't.
5  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Mining pools and the long-term viability of commercial bitcoin mining on: September 25, 2020, 07:08:59 PM
Last halving made it unprofitable for many westerners, but the activity is still profitable in China and the few countries with very cheap electricity. But we are still marching there. If bitcoin price "doubles" as you say, it would only delay the inevitable, only a few more years.

This isn't the case, the "inevitable" can be delayed to as far as a hundred years, it really isn't a matter of opinion or a thought, it's pure math.

Let's run the math for 13 and 33 years from now

Year 2020, bitcoin block reward  = 6.25    > total reward in fiat  = $62500 when price = $10,000
Year 2032 , bitcoin block reward = 0.78125> total reward in fiat = $62500 when price = $80,000
Year 2053 , bitcoin block reward = 0.0.0244141> total reward in fiat = $62500 when price = $2,559,996

Can bitcoin reach 80k in 13 years from now? very likely, can it get to 2.5M in 2053? maybe!

Mining gear manufacturers end only when at least one of two things happens.

1- They can't improve their mining gears efficiency

This takes away any incentives for miners to switch their mining gears for more profitable once, the network will be fully saturated and miners will start looking for a way to reduce their power cost instead of buying more efficient gears, those who fail to keep up with the low prices will have to leave the game and sell their miners to those who have cheaper power rates, all of this harms the manufacturers and they will be forced to close.

2- Mining rewards in fiat become too small

The point which you have explained already which depend ENTIRELY on the price of bitcoin and not the block rewards if we were to reach consensus to increase total supply and increased block rewards to 50BTC does that necessarily mean mining will be more profitable? no, because if bitcoin drops to a $100 the total mining industry will only generate $5000 a block, which is too small for everybody to sustain their businesses.

If bitcoin price drops to $1000 it will hurt gear manufacturers much more than the halving, so there is nothing that is going to happen in "a few more years" if the price keeps going up, I see that the end of those manufacturers will be the first point, and agree to what you mentioned here.

Whatever chip is being used in the S19 might be the last, or perhaps there could be one more from that company...

This is because technology is the limit, bitcoin isn't the limit, if the price keeps going up then the network will be able to accommodate more miners, and all they have to do is "make more gears of the same chip".

If bitcoin price doesn't increase, every halving will negatively affect commercial mining which will have a huge impact on the manufacturers.

To sum up:

You think industrial mining will die in a few years because of the halving, in other words, you are betting against the price of bitcoin. I think the opposite, I am betting on the price of bitcoin to go to much higher prices making the halvings near irrelevant for a few decades.
6  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Miners, what's a good rate for electricity these days? on: September 25, 2020, 06:34:20 PM
Would those miners be satisfied at 4.5 cents? Thank you for your insight as well.

I am not in the U.S so I can't give you an accurate answer, but according to my knowledge 4.5 cents in the U.S is below the average, so I think the should be satisfied, although, I am not sure if YOU will be satisfied as well, I am not aware of your mining background but hosting mining gears isn't easy and there are other costs involved, adding that to your initial power cost might put you at loss, so I would run the math a hundred times before getting involved.

And by the way, phill is great resource for these kind of information and he is in the U.S so he would help you better.
7  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Miners, what's a good rate for electricity these days? on: September 25, 2020, 12:50:10 AM
Phill you should also consider cost per terahash, downclocking an S17 pro to 26w/th means you essentially paid a higher price, you pay $1000 for a used S17 pro which is supposed to do 54TH, you downclock it to 38th and then cost per terahash becomes  $26, so it's like paying $1421.

Compare that to S19 pro which is almost as efficient (29w/th) if you pay $3000 for it, then the cost per TH = 3000/110 = $27, so the price is almost identical, pros here: S19 is brand new, S17pro is used, cons: slightly less efficient.

Of course, this is based on $1000 vs $3000, which is just a rough estimate, if S17 pro goes for $800 and S19 pro $3800 then the maths will favor the S17 pro.
8  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Mining pools and the long-term viability of commercial bitcoin mining on: September 25, 2020, 12:05:31 AM
Stop worrying, China will stop being the leader once it becomes unprofitable to mine there, all those large farms will simply close and most of those pools will disappear.

Wasn't this supposed to happen the past halving? or at least this is what many people thought, this makes the assumption that the next halving will be the end for those pool just as accurate, what was difficulty prior to the halving? 15T, and now? its at 19T and that's more than 25% increase when many people (including myself) thought we would go the other direction.

The halving is irrelevant when compared to price, 6.25 BTC at 10k btc is exactly the same as 3.125BTC at 20k, so only IF (and that's a big if) bitcoin price fails to breaks 20k by the time the next halving comes - then your assumption will be valid, but I am willing to bet against it.

The last miners will be hobbyists, those large commercial miners will go.

IMO this won't happen the next halving, not even that following one, in 8 years from now all bitcoin has to do is double twice, 1.5625BTC for block reward and bitcoin price at $40,000 will make mining as profitable as it is now, and I believe that in 8 years, prices way greater than 40k are doable.

Would love to see a non-Chinese mining gear that can compete with the Chinese mining gears.
9  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Antminer S17 Pro Power_Lost on: September 24, 2020, 09:18:10 PM
I had a similar problem with my S17e. I figured I'd change PSU but problem persisted. Which concludes that it must be control board. If you have another, test with it. Otherwise keep power cycling it and it might work eventually.

I still think it's more of a power-related issue, are you sure you tried a working PSU?

OP, if the miner isn't under warranty, open the PSU and give it a good dusting, and then remove two dashboards and keep only one plugged in, start with keeping chain 0 and then try, if the problem persists then remove chain 0 and install chain 1 alone, do this for the 3 boards, there is a good chance that one of teh hash boards is casuing this issue.

Also, you must try the obvious basic troubleshooting which is reset and flash a different firmware.
10  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Miners, what's a good rate for electricity these days? on: September 24, 2020, 07:15:39 PM
IMO if you can't compete with miners in China such as those in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia then making a profit, in the long run, will be quite difficult, miners in Sichuan have about 6 months (April to October) of about 1 cent per KhW, but I'd say the average year would be 3-4 cents for the majority of miners in China.

You might think that since the Chinese don't makeup 100% of the total hashrate and thus the average electricity cost is higher when considering other countries, well, the bad news is, there are many other countries with much cheaper power rate, such as Iran and most of the Middle-East countries, East-Europe has some very cheap rates, countries like Venezuela and Malaysia have even better rates.

Not being able to compete with those people in terms of electricity price puts you in great danger of losing money, people who paid 2.5-3k for S19 and mine at 5-6 cents are unlikely to ROI, let alone make a profit unless of course bitcoin price was to moon unrealistically, but in that case, you are better off buying the coin directly.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will bitcoin transaction fees be too high in the future? on: September 24, 2020, 12:46:03 AM
I'm sorry, but all those who convince us that with Ln + 1MB. block we will reach a billion users are by definition stupid.

So how do you plan on getting us to billion users without using a second layer solution?

Increasing block size isn't the solution either, you have living proof of coins with 8MB blocksize such as BCH or even unlimited blocksize such as BSV, do these coins have more traffic and users than Bitcoin? the answer is NO, people paid an average of 50$ to interact with ERC20 contracts on ETH, they pay 10-20$ to send BTC, why would they do that when they can send it for almost free? heck, some coins have instant confirmation and close to 0 fees but nobody uses them.

This is a free market, users bet against each other and whoever wants to use it must pay for it, we barely have full blocks and some blocks go almost empty, we are not even close to a full maximation of blocksize.

Another factor that you need to consider is the blockchain size as a whole, why do you need a purchase of 1$ for your morning coffee to be written on a public ledger stored on thousands of computers, who is going to pay for it? this isn't just a matter of miners process transactions and then delet that block for good, thousands of people need to store it on their computers, storage costs money, if we have unlimited blocksize and fees go close to 0 then doors for transaction spamming will be wide open, eventually, the blockchain (which is already huge) will be way too huge for the average joe to run their full-node, and then it's only a matter of time until only large corporations can afford to run full nodes and this will take us back to the old monetary system where a couple of people sit in a closed room and decide what to do with bitcoin.

Also, receiving/downloading and propagating large blocks is a 1st world's privilege, the majority of people don't have fast enough internet to process huge blocks, so even those who can afford storage will suffer, miners across the globe will no longer be able to mine solo and 100% of the hashrate will be direct to 2-3 mining pools, 50-100 full nodes that are owned by 2-3 large companies and then you have the perfect centralized public ledger, exactly how banks and governments would want it to be.



12  Local / منصات التبادل / Re: بينانس بالعربية on: September 23, 2020, 11:49:43 PM
قمت بالقاء نظرة على قناة التليقرام العربية وهناك حوالي 5000 عضو والنشاط كبير جدا ولكن المحتوى والفائدة لاتمثل حتى 1% من كمية الكلام المكتوب, على العموم خطوة جيدة من بينانس, اغلب العرب لايتكلمون الانجليزية وحتى استخدام المنصة البسيط جدا قد يكون معقد للكثيرين, ولكن باعتقادي فان صعوبة استخدام المنصة تكمن في عدم وجود شروحات في صغة فيديوات بالعربي, لان ترجمة المنصة حرفيا ليس اهم من محاولة شرحها, ولكن مثل هده الاشياء ان لم تنفع فهي لن تضر.

13  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: ASIC Clouds - academic perspective on: September 23, 2020, 10:06:35 PM
That's true, while the risk is far greater, the profit margin in mining centers is much higher than those in normal datacenters, this allows the former to charge more and thus profit more.

The main technical difference is that mining centers have much more power than what datacenters need, which means they are creating unrealistic supply which can't operate under normal conditions when mining isn't profitable, before I set up my own farm I visited one of the largest data centers in my city since power here is almost free, their rate was pretty cheap, it was cheaper for me to have them host my miners than me building my own place, the problem was that my required power was way too much for them, although I only asked for 0.5MW worth of electricity.

The sales manager was quite surprised and he didn't even try to negotiate with me, he smiled and said "this is way too much for us to accept, I am afraid we are not able to work with you", It felt like my requirements alone are higher than what they have in total, and since these guys were pretty large compared to others, I figured out that I shouldn't waste time trying to find another datacenter and that I should just build my own farm.
14  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: My S9 Heater version on: September 23, 2020, 09:17:43 PM
Also an RJ45 wifi bridge with wide range voltage input so can work over wifi and be powered from the psu directly...

Nice work you got, regarding the Wireless to LAN bridge, have you looked for something that has POE?

they are pretty darn nice upgrade and will run an s9 shell an s9 controller at 16,5th and around 860 watts

but I had one of the few in the USA. the builder wanted me to buy 600 boards as a minimum which is out of my league

Have you contacted them recently to see if they have dropped their MOQ and/or price? I believe with the resent diff jump as well as price drop they might have become a bit more flexible with these hash boards, I would love up upgrade 30-30 of my S9s if the price is right, I certinally wouldn't take 600 of them.
15  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: HELP with 2 T17+ :( on: September 23, 2020, 08:54:41 PM
Thank you for your interest, let it be clear, in my firwmare, I only modify the configuration page to display all the hidden options, and, concerning bmminer, I ONLY change the boot, it starts in fixed mode and not automatically.

EVERYTHING else remains the same,

Don't temperature security options exist in the stock firmware's options? I remember in the old version of S9 firmware there was an option for that, it says something like "stop mining when chip temp is over xx", have they removed all of these features in the 17 series firmware?

Thanks for being nice enough to answer all of our questions, remember we are doing this to help you improve not to bring you down.
16  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: HELP with 2 T17+ :( on: September 22, 2020, 01:49:36 PM
... but I think 80 C chip temp target is default set by Bitmain.

Since when did bitmain firmware become the ideal standard?  Grin, their firmware suck big time.

Also, I never use chip temp target on my units. As you can see it's on manual 100% like on all my other units.

I saw that, and I admire, because this is how I treat my gears as well, 90-100% fixed fan speed is the only way I run these miners, fans are dirt cheap and I have a ton of them for spare.
17  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: HELP with 2 T17+ :( on: September 22, 2020, 04:50:53 AM
Agreed, also the fixed fan speed effect on temp should be modifiable, 80c as a chip temp target for auto-fan is a bit too much, the best option would be setting your desired max chip-temp on which the fans will try to achieve by spinning at faster/slower RPMs, by all means 80c on these 17 series gears is overkill.
18  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Mining pools and the long-term viability of commercial bitcoin mining on: September 22, 2020, 12:24:01 AM
The average per month since Q3 2019 is that over 70% of miners on BTC.com, Poolin and ViaBTC are Chinese miners...

The map is based on geo-location data (i.e. IP addresses) of hashers connecting to the Bitcoin mining pools BTC.com, Poolin, and ViaBTC, who have kindly agreed to share aggregate-level data for research purposes.

Bolded part is the issue, this study can be off by a bit, I know that U.S citizens care about privacy and anonymity much more than the Chinese do, actually many other countries do, but let's assume the study is accurate and does apply to all other major pools, we still have 30% of the hashrate that isn't coming from China, but most of it is pointed to Chinese mining pools.

Yeah I mine 1.7ph at viabtc because no non Chinese pool offers their options.

Same here, I am stuck with Viabtc because they are the only pool which works perfectly for me, i am not happy doing so because Viabtc is controlled by bitmain oneway or the other, I tried almost all different PPS pools and I can't seem to find one that provides the same quality by any means.
19  Local / العربية (Arabic) / Re: الدفع بBTC حاولت إلى عملة ورقية في مطاعم؟ on: September 21, 2020, 09:57:26 PM
في البلدان المدعومة ربما يمكن استخدام بطاقات crypto.com  والانفاق منها لكن بصراحة ليس عندي أدنى فكرة عن البلدان العربية المقبولة أو حتى رسوم التحويل

لكن بالمجمل اذا لم يكن المتجر أو الموقع يقبل بطاقات الدفع فأرى أنه من شبه المستحيل أن يقبل العملات المشفرة

على حد علمي، لا توجد أي بطاقة تدعم الدول العربية في الوقت الحالي ما عدا بطاقة Spendl الافتراضية. لكن هنالك كلام حول دعم Advcash لجميع دول العالم في المستقبل القريب.


اعتقد ان مرحلة مابعد "الوباء" ستكون مختلفة خصوصا من الناحية الاقتصادية, خسائر الدول تقدر بالمليارات, وكل مامكان هناك حاجة لتسيل اموال من الخارج كل مازادت التنازلات, مثلا وعلى سبيل المثال دول مالطا واسبانيا ونظرا لسوء اقتصادهم في السنوات الاخيرة اصبحو "يبيعون" جنسية دولهم بالمال, وهناك الكثير من الدول غير الاروبية تقوم بنفس الشي, تركيا مثلا تسهل كافة انواع الاستتمارات والاقامة والجنسية للعرب, ماليزيا وغيرها من الدول الاسوية, الموضوع مسئلة وقت لا غير والكلمة الاخيرة في خصوص العقوبات الاقتصادية راجعة لامريكيا, وانا توقع ان يكون هناك انفتاح وانتهاء قصة الحرب ضد الارهاب التي كانت هي الدريعة الاولة لكل العقوبات التي تسنها الولايات المتحدة على الدول العربية.

اما فيما يتعلق بتبني الكريبتو من قبل الحكومات العربية فالموضوع لايمكن حتى الحديث عنه الان, وهوا ليس مهم بالنسبة لي, الاهم هوا رفع العقوبات على الدول العربية ومعامتلها اسوا بالدول الاخرى وكلي ثقة في الله ان الامور ستسير للاحسن في مرحلة مابعد Covid19.
20  Local / العربية (Arabic) / Re: مسابقة Chipmixer 6 on: September 21, 2020, 11:33:05 AM

أرجو أن تضيف اسمي في المسابقة أخي ميكي مع كامل التقدير والشكر لك.

مرحبا بك. تم اضافة اسمك

ليست لدي خبرة كبيرة في اعداد الفيديوهات لكن اذا كانت تقبل الشروحات المكتوبة فاود المشاركة ان امكن.

اخ خالد ان متاكد ان شخص بقدراتك لن يعجز في استخدام برنامج يسجل فيديو للشاشة اتناء العمل مع بعض الشرح حتى في notepad.

كما اوضحت سابقا يمكن المشاركة باي طريقة تناسبك ولكن فرصة الفوز اكبر للفيديوات.

مع ذلك اضافة شرح بطرق اخرى لن يظر شي بالعكس هوا فائدة للجميع حتى خارج نطاق المسابقة.

مرحبا بك. تم اضافة اسمك
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