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This move down right now is very suspicious considering the CPI numbers are out in a couple hours.
Whales trying to scare people out of their positions before the release perhaps.
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waiting for Chart Buddy to signal the end of the bear market like  6 months at most I reckon. Then it will be deflation depression panic stations. The real question is what price does Bitcoin hit in the meantime. Even these levels are pissing me off, much lower from here would be a even bigger downer. Of course, I'll hodl all the way, because when it turns, it will turn hard and the FOMO will be massive. Trying to time that would be a fools errand. |
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For all those concerned about recent price action just know that it won't last for that much longer. All markets are currently being driven by the actions of the CBs. Whether interest rates matter or not is not the point but the psychology certainly does. Anyway, lets see if the CBs continue to increase rates into an obvious deflationary (massively so) environment. https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1570491515624882176?cxt=HHwWgICw-c3twMsrAAAA CBs have only till the end of this year. After which their credibility will be blown again. Don't think they will continue with the interest rates increases for much longer. Maybe they will get to about 4 or 4.5% tops before pivoting after which we will see a massive rally in all markets. There will still be inflation but that will help markets also. One key driver to the economy (at least here in the UK) is the housing market. From what I've heard that is already getting stuck in its gears, regardless of recent news articles saying we have had 15% year on year house price increases. Those were July figures based on sales agreed back in Feb / March mostly, well before the majority were concerned with energy increases, inflation etc. Many of us here saw it coming, but the average Joe only heard about it much later. Yep that's pretty much it. Current high inflation will drop, but after that we will have increased structural inflation, brought on by the fiscal responses to the upcoming deflation and other stupid government ideological reactions. Housing is a big driver, and was a large part of the latest core inflation increase coming from the US. But every housing market in the west (not just the UK) is now falling at a pretty fast rate, when this caries over into the very lagging core inflation every CB and government will go into panic mode. As you say markets will rocket. In this instance it is better to be early than late. |
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For all those concerned about recent price action just know that it won't last for that much longer. All markets are currently being driven by the actions of the CBs. Whether interest rates matter or not is not the point but the psychology certainly does. Anyway, lets see if the CBs continue to increase rates into an obvious deflationary (massively so) environment. https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1570491515624882176?cxt=HHwWgICw-c3twMsrAAAACBs have only till the end of this year. After which their credibility will be blown again. |
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Hmm I don't like that but the chart looks so bearish, without any good sign.
We really never never bounced from the "fake" 69K$ ATH.. Even at 20K, almost no reaction since june.. Kind of crazy, and still doesn't look in a good way.
Macro + all FED bullshits.. hm..hm... What next?
#Hodl.
This is a reflection of the state of mind of the people. People are sick physically and mentally, desperate, resigned to inflation, poor health care, the threat of world war, and have lost faith that anything can save them. Even here we don't see optimistic posts anymore. Yes, it's all a speculator's paradise, robbing the weak hands of their bitcoins for a pittance. The situation remains dire indeed and for the first time in Bitcoin history we have had 10 months of non-stop crashing without a rebound. It is very likely to last at least a few more months until the weak hands run out. But that doesn't mean it will be ten years or so before it returns to 60K+ levels. Bitcoin is not like gold and can easily and quickly catch up any lag. And while there were voices before that 20K was accidentally achieved due to the short stay in those levels, this cannot be said at all for the 60K+ levels where the price stayed for months. So this price is totally achievable, from where we can also expect the 100K+ to come true within the next 3-4 years. The mood is definitely not good. Inflation, with no way to hedge against it. Every asset but gas seems to be going down, it's amazing to think that with 10% inflation the best thing to hold has been cash. We have avoided a reversion to mean with all assets for 20 years now thanks to Fed printing, to continue to avoid that reversion we will need more Fed printing. It's not coming yet it seems but it won't be to far away. Going under 20k again is depressing. |
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Sigh.
That's all I can say these days. Need to go into hibernation for the next 6 months I think.
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Upside down world: - BTC keeps going lower even in the face of ridiculous fiat inflation
- Fiat inflation is supposedly Putin's fault even though the west printed ridiculous sums of fiat out of thin air for years.
- The G7 / NATO and its silent allies actively want to have a cold war
- Ursula von der Lies joins the G7 even though she doesn't represent a country and no citizen was able to vote for her and they continue to talk about how we must
impose democracy on Russia - You vote conservative in your country and you keep getting bashed with ridiculous green policies and increased taxes
- Clowns and demented imbeciles are our leaders
- Propaganda media outlets keep bashing Russia whose leader talks far more sense than any of our pathetic clowns
- The Russian ruble keeps strengthening despite suicide sanctions and restrictions. All other currencies against the dollar are deflating even faster than the dollar itself.
- Western leaders promote economic migrants even though there is supposedly no space for us already (see increased taxes) and fuels illegal people trafficking. immigration has been sold as a virtue signalling option to supposedly help the poor in other countries. The reality is the real poor in those countries can never escape. Only the strongest and usually they are young men.
- Upside down policy example Netherlands #1: Farmers need to close their business as they are too polluting. The entire country was founded on farming!
- Upside down policy example Netherlands #2: You will soon have to pay for driving each kilometre, even if you drive abroad. Who in their right mind thinks that's fair AND you will still need to get an EV no doubt.
- Upside down policy example Netherlands #3: You will need to install a heat pump because gas is simply too polluting even though much of the Dutch economy was built on using and exporting gas.
- Upside down policy example Netherlands #4: The leader literally said "Ukraine's war is our war." even though citizens firmly rejected closer association with Ukraine in a referendum years ago.
- Upside down policy example Netherlands #5: Gas and everything is too polluting and citizens will have to pay but in a general sense because of the sanctions on importing Russian gas and the evil Adolf Putin burning coal will be fine if required.
- The general consensus appears to be carry on and just do more of the same of the failed policies.
- The CIA appears to be in control of the USA and in fact much of the western world. Puppets in the form of diaper Biden and Kameltoe Harris appear to be so incredibly stupid, pathetic with race baiting and ultimately hypocritical, this bad leader joke thing is just sad to watch for me. Boris Johnson is no better.
Unbelievable.  I think the western world is collapsing quicker then we think. Our political institutions and even non political have been taken over by cultists and they are distributing the cool aid as we speak. If things don't change course soon, drawingup a personal escape plan within the nnext year might be a very prudent thing to do. |
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Traditional markets weighing on the price again I see. We’re definitely on the Fed train here and price probably won’t turn around for good until they do as well. The halving is probably the only other thing that would turn the price around, but that ain’t happening for a while.
I know some are excited about an ETF, but if it’s Grayscale that gets approved I would expect heavy outflows from their fund in this market.
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I don't mind JJG posting long posts but other guys, they can fuck off.  That's the spirit ImThour.  ... I'd have to agree here also. I sometimes either scroll past or just skim the really long posts, but JayJuanGee seems to pull them off rather well, somehow. Are we on a slow climb? Is 17593 really the bottom? I think only Captain Hindsight really knows.  I hope so, but it is the weekend now, so if the attack on Bitcoin is to continue now will be the time due to the low liquidity. |
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Quick review from some polls I stumbled across from @bitcoin. Not a fan of the twitter handle, but thought these were interesting to reflect market sentiment over past few days...  To summarise, ~60% think Bitcoin will close June below $20K. Only ~40% think BTC will close above $20K this month. 25% think price will close below $15K!  As of $20K prices, over 60% think Bitcoin hasn't yet reached max industry pain.  Again, the majority think Bitcoin will reach $15K before $25K in next three months...
The reason I reference this, is because most Bitcoiners and traders get it wrong. Most thought $30K wouldn't break, but as soon as it did, those people were all expecting ~$15K prcies. Assuming most voting in this poll get it wrong (again); Bitcoin closes June above $20K, the industry has hit max pain already and we'll see $25K before $15K At present, based on current price action, I think this is fairly realistic. My personal benchmarks for this type of reversal would be the following: 1. Closing today above $20K (roughly 10% below the 200WMA which wouldn't be a disaster). Ideally above $21K consolidation, but can't be too hopeful. 2. Closing next week above the 200WMA (which will be $22.4K next week). Reclaiming $20K would likely achieve this I think, especially $21K. 3. Then trading towards $25K the beginning of next week, before a correction, in order to close June comfortably above $20K. Going to try and present some short and longer-term TA to explain this as there are some serious volume gaps both to the upside and to the downside at present. I don't know how realistic that is but it would be nice. Waiting for the TA. |
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Looking at the history of the mempool. There is a declining size of transaction spikes throughout this dump from 30k. My hope is that this might mean the supply of people willing to sell are becoming exhausted and only true hodlers remain.  Clutching at straws I know. |
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Time to drink.
lucky you, sniffing glue is all i can afford now I was sniffing gasoline for a while there but that got too expensive. Jenkem for me  If that isn't capitulation I don't know what is. |
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Time to drink.
lucky you, sniffing glue is all i can afford now I was sniffing gasoline for a while there but that got too expensive. |
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Also price above 19.5 we need it back above 20k still. But it's a start.
We’ll see. I doubt we are anywhere close to a recovery, due to the flock of black swans which threaten to continue arriving. But who knows. This is Bitcoin, which turns around and rockets up or down without warning. Absolutely, I'm not calling a bottom here but we need to go above 20k to have any hope of even a temporary bounce. However, I do think it is possible that it does bottom, everyone, and I mean everyone believes that there are several large stupid companies out there that will 100% be liquidated very soon. While that does seem likely, these companies are opaque and we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. They may not be as bad off as we think, or perhaps they are getting private bailouts in the background. It’s Bitcoin right, anything can happen. And if we don’t get the promised liquidations there is going to be a lot of unhappy shorts/sellers out there who will need to adjust their strategy. |
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Should have sold  To balance that out, I have set new personal text. The space is too short to add appropriate qualifications, so it is not a promise or binding commitment; but it is essentially my attitude. NOT SELLING for fiat. Not to hold fiat. Hahaha, I was waiting to see how long till someone would notice that. I'll change it back don't worry. Also price above 19.5 we need it back above 20k still. But it's a start. |
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"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild.
"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."
I don’t think costs of wrecking all relevant markets are worth propping
up a Nazi regime
It's always worth sacrificing others, never themselves though or their families. What a shit head, I swear people dying and losing everrything turns these evil pricks on. Exactly who are you are sacrificing for? A country that exists only due to an administrative error, and is now held to ransom by a gang of Nazis Fuck you - spend you own money on them All I can say is that the Ukrainian, EU, US, and Russian people have been fucked over in a major way for the ideologies of their leaders. This whole thing could of easily been avoided but they wanted a war. They have their war now so they're happy, but not happy enough apparently, they want more people to suffer. People who just want to live their lives and get no benefit from the war what so ever. Anyway no one here likes needless war so I don't want to get diverted from the topic of BTC further. |
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"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild.
"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."
I don’t think costs of wrecking all relevant markets are worth propping
up a Nazi regime
It's always worth sacrificing others, never themselves though or their families. What a shit head, I swear people dying and losing everrything turns these evil pricks on. |
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[...]
I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio. Don't be too hard on them for doing that. For many this is the only way they can ever hope to own a home, their labor is no longer enough. Thank you governments and CBs for putting people in this situation. You fucks. That. Moreover, some of us actually want money with freedom. (Besides, anyone who holds stocks hedged with anything tied to “safe” U.S. Treasuries is in for a surprise whenever the petrodollar system finally implodes. Next decade? Next year? Tomorrow? Nobody knows, but the house of cards has only been built ever-higher for almost a half-century. Whenever that hits, whether it hits you or your children, it will make that “diverse portfolio” look like diversifying your BTC to be balanced with some SHIB, some ICOs, some Bored Ape NFTs, etc.) Spot on, which is what BTC is all about and while I'll always own some (gold too) it's insurance. Just happens that sometimes this insurance makes you a lot of money. Once the liquidations cease and all the rotten flesh is cut out of the system the healing will start... Bitcoin is a better option than a savings account Very true, and If people treated it as savings rather than a get rich quick scheme we wouldn't be in this mess. |
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The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 MA is what scares the shit out of me.
+1 to that. But to be fair it is a weekend. Which is why they dumped in the first place. |
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