Seems to me that the mempool was often congested, i don't think all of these are attacks by a maleficient entity

How much would be the cost of an attack like that?
When bitcoin was forking there was for sure a mempool manipulation, but nowadays I fell that unlikely.

Imho the problem is that when crypto move fast bitcoin is not enough fast, we should implement a better lighting network or bitcoin will never work for coffee or anything besides being a store of value.

My prep was 50 grams of Mannite dissolved in half a gallon of water to drink. Be aware that i suffer from Fructose Malabsorption, so it worked very well. But the nausea afterwards was horrible, lasting for about two hours, not to speak about the other side effects. That was all, i refused any sedative and laxatives, like every other real man  

Antisthenes macho post in 3... 2... 1...  
By the way, @Antisthenes, real men are able to do things that normal men are afraid of. So feel free to go on with your teenage homophobic issues  

EDIT: I forgot about the most modern method of colonoscopy, it's even better and non-invasive. You swallow a (quite big) "pill", which is a camera that records all of the way from your mouth to the exit. This way the small intestine and ileocecal valve is also covered. No pain, no tubes, no embarassment or shame involved.


That actually gave me the biggest laugh of the day 

I find the prep to be worse than the actual procedure. Assuming a good anesthetist that is.

It's not an excusive Ukraine war blog, but he reports every day about the war, of course with a big Ukraine bias as it should be.

Sometimes things are simple and play linearly, but bitcoin typically goes up the most when nobody 'expected' it, like a $12 to $250 surge (20X) in the first four moths of 2013 or $1k to $20K in the last 8-9 months of 2017 (20X again). Now, there is a lot of expectation, which is bullish, of course, but not unexpected. I don't expect more than 140-150K during this cycle, call me conservative.

Seller exhaustion?

Let’s hope so and we start to rally as the halving approaches.


@Pentoshi
Pretty key update today as I've tracked this for some time

Stable coin bleed stopped as discussed earlier in October, and has not made a new low now in over 3 months. It's even essentially had a very small uptick

It could be a sign that capital is finally done exiting. Another positive development

https://x.com/pentosh1/status/1715847424982360176

Thanks for the suggestions and valuations on the ledger story 

Now, i had a few accounts (wallets) with relatively minor shitcoin balances on it as well. According to the ledger docs, i will have to restore all balances on the new device using the old seed, send all tokens to intermediate exchange or local client wallets, reset the new device, set it up as new, reinstall the bitcoin app and transfer Bitcoin from sold shitcoins (exchange wallet) and recovered Bitcoin (local client) to it.

Yep, seems i got some extra things to do 

Update on the lost ledger nano story:

Yesterday, my wife actually said to me that i seem to look worried, while in the middle of the lost ledger quest (Not because of the Covid).
I told my story and she said: "Hey, you told me you were hiding it in the basement, because you were worried that you can't remember when we return from the holidays."  
Good girl  
So i went into meditation a couple of times, until i had remembered some kind of dark picture of the place where i put the fucking thing.
And then it clicked. I had put the ledger in an empty packaging of some usb device (bluetooth stick?) where it did fit really tightly.
A few weeks after our vacation i was clearing out old stuff in the basement, and i almost know now that i had thrown the ledger nano away.
So there's a little chance that i didn't go to the recycling center but threw it in an intermediate container, no need to be too precise here. I plan to look through the (luckily, non-organic) waste later on.

If i can't find it there, it's lost for sure. If somebody finds it, that somebody has three attempts to guess the pin code, then it will auto-reset on failure.

Seems safe to restore the wallet(s) to the spare ledger i happen to own.
But i failed to decide if i would create a new key and transfer my Bitcoin from a recovered software-wallet. I am not sure which way is the safer one.

Any suggestions?

EDIT: There is a small chance that the device's key store can be read out through some bug or quantum magic (maybe, i don't count on it), IF even somebody had found the ledger and any clue how to use it. Smallish, very smallish chance, though. This would make the restore method on a new device less secure, of course.
But less secure than re-creating the wallet in Electrum and transfering the coins via protocol to the newly setup ledger wallet...

On-chain image storage is turning out to be something of a bust market-wise, along with the BRC-20 madness, which is good news for regular bitcoin users.

It is a little misleading. mempool has dropped down in terms of transaction qty but the size of each transaction is enormous!

It feels like the prick who was spamming the mempool earlier with those pesky 200sat transaction, is now consolidation the spam back to a single UTXO.

https://mempool.space/tx/61239ef47a7cc771885ee3b81f9306fe0def9a114c45b0175718c0ed63e7175a

If you look closely, full blocks (2MB) have 200 transactions only...

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000005298c5a69b83e416d8145f23cb5a76ebe105a4b8fbab

I've seen some with less than 100 transactions.

https://mempool.space/block/0000000000000000000304db2225d93f709e00dd851fa723dfdc71f0bd30c673

Current mempool size is equivalent to about 200,000 (1in-1out) unconfirmed transactions... and it has been like this for over a week now.

6 sats per byte?

That’s weird that it’s not confirmed yet. I very rarely use an ‘online wallet’ but I sent some bitcoin from an old blockchain.com wallet last week. I was complacent and also let the wallet decide the ‘best’ fee which was also 6 sats/byte and it confirmed in about 12 hours.

I remember in 2017 or 2018 I had to pay a mining pool to get a transaction confirmed. Shame ViaBTC free transaction accelerator is minimum 10 sat/byte now, it used to be 1 sat/byte.

I’ve just tried to accelerate your transaction on one of those free accelerators. Dunno if it will work but it supposedly rebroadcasts transactions.

These are certainly all valid reasons for the way the price developed after the last halving, though I wouldn't too quickly discount the fact that with every halving the amount of reductions is also 50% smaller, hence I believe (as others already said here) the effect of the halving we will see will be weaker with every new halving. I believe this will somewhat flatten the curve (pardon the pun) over time and therefor the following "winter"/bear season might also not be as cold as it was in the past, so to speak.

With the 1st halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 3600 coins
With the 2nd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 1800 coins
With the 3rd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 900 coins
The next halving will reduce the daily supply "only" by 450 coins (only 12.5% reduction of the first halvings reduction!)

Ofc I'd love to see the price to go the moon in the next bullrun and growing adaption and the much touted ETF thingies might offset the above described effect of weaker halvings to some degree.
We'll see, but I consider everything 6-figure ATH in the next two years as perfectly fine for my expectations. (Could perfectly live with a 300k ATH too, no problem there  )

I think we were robbed of a parabolic, blow off top in 2021. The macro financial, worldwide situation due to COVID and China banning bitcoin at such a pivotal moment in the bull run stopped us going to over $100,000 imo.

This time we have multiple probable Spot ETF approvals by big players. I hope I’m not being deluded when I say, I think $180,000 to $250,000 is likely in 2025 at some point.

Life changing money, brother.