If you guys use the BTC ETF as a guide you can see that in the first 2 days the AUM was over
$1.1B and the next day it wasn’t changed and checking today again it went up to $1.2B. So it seems the FOMO was only for those 2 days.

So it seems that the people who wanted to FOMO into crypto already did. So we will see how this week ends up, however if we don’t break ATH this week and close under the ATH on the weekly then I can see a sell off starting because all the holders that bought in the $28-64K area are going to panic and start to sell. Especially if we are near the top like this.

Right now we need to see how Bitcoin will behave when it touches the previous ATH of $65K. Currently there are many longs in that area that are trapped. If we engulf 65K then I would be very surprised if we don’t break ATH again.

However if we fail to close $65K then we can retest the $60K low that formed on the weekend and if we breach it then support is at $50K. However lots of positive news came out today so it’s looking good however on the first sign of weakness I will be looking to hedge.

Yeah Cloud Mining was the worst.

I had so many friends fall for that scam. They said "Dude its 10GH/s forever, I will always be mining bitcoins". However they clearly didn't read their terms and on their terms it states that the hashrate is guaranteed as long as its more than the maintenance cost. The maintenance cost is electricity plus some handling and service from time to time.

Generally these contract last for many a year or even less than a year due to how fast bitcoin ASICs become extinct. I remember we would always get a bunch of people going to bitcointalk to complain how they got scammed with cloud mining contracts when they clearly didn't read the fine print.

Weekend trading can vary depending on how active the markets are. Right now since we broke ATH last week I would be careful about fading any weekend moves. What that means is that say out of the blue we get some large pump, don’t short that pump. Might be a real move.

However usually in the past, especially in the summer we would get some pump or dump on the weekend at a strange hour and usually most of the time the moves would fade. Basically people chased the move and ended up buying the top or selling the bottom and it went back into the range.

Don’t rely on any of these market sentiment sites. Even that fear and greed one is very unreliable. Sure in hindsight it seems to work but there are times when there is extreme fear and it keeps dropping or extreme greed and it keeps going up.

If you want some fundamentals to trade off, then just use the funding rates for the futures. It doesn’t always work however unless there is a crazy strong trend with BTC they are reliable. Basically when funding is high for the longs then you sell or go short and same is true if it’s vice versa.
Look at the prior funding charts and you will see how reliable the indicator is sometimes.

You really should try and find the 8Gb of these video cards. How much are the 4GB you are going to buy. You can mine coins with them however you are losing a lot of profits since it’s not 8Gb.

ETC went down the DAGs and you can mine that however if you compare the profits you can see that you are making about half with the 4GB card. If ETC value goes down even further you will make even less. They are not the GPUs to start a farm with unless you get them for like $50 or so.

What do BTC, ETH and SOL all have in common? Double top.

Yes BTC broke but it’s going to close under ATH on the weekly. SOL had a crazy year, I think it was like $1-2 last October so it’s pretty impressive to get a 100-200x in such a short time.

Will it break ATH? It still could. A lot of it depend what happens to BTC in the next few weeks, if it starts to act bearish then everything will start to sell off.

These days unless you got deep deep pockets you are not going to get it listed anywhere. Back in 2013-2014 people were taking clones of the Bitcoin and Litecoin source code and made their own similar alts and then these coins quickly got a bunch of pools, miners and in a few days got a free listing on some high volume exchanges.

Now people rarely clone the Bitcoin source code because there is way too much sha256 hash power out there and it would get instamined very quickly. And even if you got decent hash power out of it you wouldn’t get listed it anywhere until you paid exchanges in the 5 figure range.

This is false. You actually do own the stock. However most people rather keep the stock digitally on an exchange rather than keep the certificates somewhere in their house or a security box. Whenever you own some shares, you can contact the brokerage and for a large fee they can send you a physical certificate of the shares you own. However what are you going to do with that then? Keep it in your house and what if there is a fire.

The stocks that you might not actually own are more like options, futures, ETFs which all got fees and decays and are not great for holding long term.

Trust me on this, don’t rely on trading bots.

When you back test them it seems like you found the holy grail method. Even when you forward test them. However the minute you start trading with a real market you will realize that they don’t work as promised.

The issue is mostly with liquidity and slippage which bots can never replicate. Another issue is that bots are generally only good in either trending or ranging markets not both.

So in May-Aug you would of had better success with a bot that trading ranging markets however it would of failed in Sept and vice versa. Avoid any of these bots, especially if you need to pay for them.

The bottom line is this.

What they provide doesn’t mean you will be able to make money off it. It basically will send you alert that something might go up or down however it’s all a technical analysis which is far from perfect. Maybe it’s good because it’s going to keep you organized but the overall objective is you need to take trades based on your own experiences.

Right now people are very bullish so most bullish trades will work, however there will always be some case where in a bull market you should short, if you follow each of those alerts obviously you will run into many loses, hence you need another filter for these trades such as go with the trend.

It’s hard to say what October will be really, especially for alts. At first I was bearish on alts because Bitcoin was pumping and when it broke the ATH I didn’t expect it to close under the ATH the next day. I was expecting it to pump for the next couple of weeks with alts going down.

However what if Bitcoin had a double top and that was it. It would mean that money would flow back into alts like ETH today and other alts would follow. Eventually there would be a blow off top for alts and everything would enter bear market territory.

About 10 years ago I took an interest in EW. Bought ebooks, courses, autobots, looked at previous back testing and see how reliable EW was and my conclusion is this.

EW works great in hindsight however if you want to put it into practice then it’s another story. The issue is that most of the time you think you are in one wave but you are really in another, you won’t know this until it’s too late. Maybe it works for some but for me I found it to be very unreliable indicator.

It doesn’t actually grow faster than other cryptos, it has a large market cap and it takes longer for it to reach a certain %s. Comparing it to alts it grows much slower. Why is it popular? Well because it was the first and it’s the most secure when it comes to securing the blockchain.

Will another alt exceeds bitcoins market cap? It’s possible however I don’t think it will be anytime soon. Ethereum is close but it has its issues too like Bitcoin, for example the ETH gas fees people have to pay right now. No coin is perfect. Some have their pros and cons.

Generally when something is water damaged there are 2 ways it get damaged. First way is the salt water corrodes a few parts or solder joints, so when you rehot the solder pretty much , you can get it working if all it was a broken joint.

Another way it damages is because it bridges connections causing a short somewhere. Sometimes all you need to do is clean it with rubbing alcohol and remove the corrosion and it’ll work again. I tried this before with water damaged phones. About 50% can be fixed this way.

A Futures ETF is an ETF which tracks a future commodity like Crude Oil. Sure a spot ETF would be better but there are issues with that so it was either Bitcoin Future ETF or nothing. The issue with this will be contago every month when the contracts need to roll, there will be some loss in that so its not ideal for holding long term.

When you buy a futures ETF you aren't physically buying a BTC however your counterparty is as a hedge. Someone buys some shares of a BTC ETF, and that counterparty of that hedges with the Futures, and the counter party of that counter party hedges with the spot market. So its all connected one way or another.

I think it was impressive how we actually managed to break the ATH again, however this break was very weak compared to previous ATH breaks. The AUM for BITO was hardly increased the last 2 days. The first 2 days we got $500 Million each and the last 2 days we got maybe $50 Million. So it seems that people are getting scared to open positions.

I am going to be cautious if we don't close above previous ATH on the weekly time frames. If we fail to close above $64900 or we go to $64900 and get rejected it will be time to hedge some. And if we manage to close above that area then we can cover and it should break ATH and go higher and higher again. However so far its looking week. However its still early to tell, its only been a few days. We will see what next week will bring.

So far this is not the reaction I was looking for. Was expecting to go to $70K at least or if we were to pullback we wouldn’t go below the old ATH price of $65K. The way it’s trading it’s not looking too well. I think if we close below the old ATH on the weekly most likely we will get some sell off when the new weekly candle starts on Sunday.

It’s still possible we might break again however what happened earlier with those nasty flash crashes is not a good sign. Usually when exchanges get these flash crashes it means a pullback is going to come. Look at all the flash crashes we had in the past, most of the time it signaled a local top.

There is no easy way to fix this unfortunately. The card is for parts only unfortunately. Sure you can easily buy that part on many electronic websites or take it from another dead GPU you got however when it blows up like this, it usually rips out the contact terminal on the PCB and you won’t be able to solder it back in.

Only was would be to run a trace where that connection goes and jump it however if this part needs to be cooled someway then it’s not possible.

I had many GPUs go bad this way. If it’s not old, sell on eBay “For parts or repair” and you will get some money back.

Back in 2014, we GPU miners would set alerts when a new ANN was created. Then we would download the wallet and start mining the coin ASAP. Most coins released in 2014 were Scrypt. And almost all of them had a low difficulty at first so if you were early you could basically instamine a bunch of coins.

Most of these coins were almost always listed on major exchanges like Bittrex or Poloniex. Usually in a day or two. And if you were quick you could of net 2-5x more profit from mining Dogecoin/Litecoin which was the dominated GPU coin back in those days.

These days… forget it. Most coins are tokens on the ERC20 network using Ethereum. Nothing to mine anymore.