Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Traxo]

The finch chirps while nodding that selling both at their peaks to obtain TRB and/or bits-of-net.

Whose not envious of OROBTC’s wanderlust in places we’ve never flown—and before TSHTF.

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[OROBTC]

The finch chirps while nodding that selling both at their peaks to obtain TRB and/or bits-of-net.

Whose not envious of OROBTC’s wanderlust in places we’ve never flown—and before TSHTF.

We have always liked traveling, and since we are technically "homeless", I am completing a promise I made to my wife decades ago: a LONG trip to Europe.  We left St. Pete half an hour ago, next is Helsinki.

Only got rid of PART of my BTC though.  If BTC continues to go up sharply, I'll buy more Au.

And wait for songbird to let me know when it it reached its goal, completes its work.

[Traxo]

OROBTC,
since you’re traveling in Europe,
have heard about the electric cars scam they are hoisting on the EU by 2020 to further bankrupt their society?

[r0ach]

Here's my view on the blocksize issue:

What special interest groups neglected to tell you about the block size issue:

From an economics point of view, trying to force the entire planet onto a fixed block size with low scaling is a pro-usury extortion stance.  Small blocks are a synthetic monopoly.  If criminal banks believe they can take control of this monopoly, either through getting a large percent of the transaction validators, or by taking control of all services that facilitate off-chain transactions like Coinbase (or lightning) since on-chain transactions are too expensive to use, then the criminal banks would likely support small blocks over large ones.

The solution to the problem is not 1 MB or 8 MB blocks.  Any system with a fixed block size is going to inherently be a pro-usury extortion scheme due to synthetic monopoly.  You would need to use a dynamic, scaling block size like Monero to fix that.

[Traxo]

…you would need to use a dynamic, scaling block size like Monero to fix that.

Someone disagrees.

[OROBTC]

…you would need to use a dynamic, scaling block size like Monero to fix that.

Someone disagrees.

Tell you guys what, while I am as happy as anyone re BTC price spike, I would really also like to have EASY exposure (for Dummies) to a good Alt.

But, if any Alt is too hard for the "average Joe" to use, I ain't buying it...

So BTC it is for me.  $3260 last I checked.  Get us to $3700, well, I'll just buy a wee-bit more Au with it, that has worked out good for me so far.

[Traxo]

...Get us to $3700...

Birdie seems to be nodding today.

[r0ach]

Thought the anonymizer would find this interesting.  There's a doomsday collapse Russian guy named Dmitry Orlov who is also a writer-type person amongst characters like Kunstler:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Orlov_(writer)

His plan of action was to buy a live aboard sailboat and he's been living on one for the past 10 years.  He also seems to be an engineer of some type and decided to try and design the ultimate but cheap quasi-house/sailboat that you can live on ($50,000 or something as a DIY kit).  The boat is called the "Quidnon" and after a few years work just released a promo video for it the other day:

http://quidnon.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-short-promotional-video.html

Kind of an interesting boat in terms of design decisions and look.  It looks pretty ugly but has huge indoor room compared to normal boats and looks like it would instantly tip over in the ocean but he says he's tested them in simulation and it works good.

The predictable responses to it from the sailing community:

http://quidnon.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-boat-for-reluctant-sailor.html

[Traxo]

More indicators from MA that the time is approaching (if not already) to temporarily sell high risk speculations (e.g. gold, crypto, assets outside the USA, non-dollar currencies, and bonds) and buy the dollar and US stocks:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/vix-at-record-lows/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/us-share-market-broad-overvaluation-index-one-of-the-best-leading-indicators-we-have-ever-created/

…the beginning of the most important event perhaps in our lifetime that stands on the event horizon to begin in 2018. We have nearly reached our second target on the Dow Jones Industrial Index – 23,000. They laughed at our forecast back in 2011 that the Dow would make new highs.

After we break through 23,000 for the DJIA, the next level is 30,000 - 40,000. In other words, the short dollar vortex Phase Transition is almost ready to begin.

[miscreanity]

His plan of action was to buy a live aboard sailboat and he's been living on one for the past 10 years.  He also seems to be an engineer of some type and decided to try and design the ultimate but cheap quasi-house/sailboat that you can live on ($50,000 or something as a DIY kit).  The boat is called the "Quidnon" and after a few years work just released a promo video for it the other day:

http://quidnon.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-short-promotional-video.html

Kind of an interesting boat in terms of design decisions and look.  It looks pretty ugly but has huge indoor room compared to normal boats and looks like it would instantly tip over in the ocean but he says he's tested them in simulation and it works good.

I like the approach, and it would certainly be worthwhile to use for inner waterways and near-coastal travel. Blue water sailing or crossings would not be something I'd consider lightly, but the objectives of minimal maintenance with high reliability and simple operation make for a fantastic alternative to being stuck somewhere with a piece of real estate that could easily wind up forfeit due to jurisdictional insanity.

Nice find.

[miscreanity]

One of the most poignant aspects I've noticed is that sailors form a tightly-knit community no matter where in the world they are. Power boaters are the same as people on land - mostly unreliable and self-interested. Sailors have a different perspective; their pace of life is much more spiritual and self-sufficient. They will help almost without thinking, although they are far more rational than many people I know. Sharing with other sailors and protecting each other is ingrained.

Almost like preppers at sea, but more practical and sane

[Traxo]

@iamback documented that MA was framed

No war with N.Korea imminent:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/10/north-korea-details-guam-strike-trump-load-of-nonsense

Just saber rattling from N.Korea in order to provocate nationalism and justify increase totalitarianism internally within the country to restrain any coups or democracy movements internally.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/cnn-supporting-north-korea-v-trump/

[Traxo]

Mr. Armstrong; I attended the Paris conference of the BIS when you were the keynote speaker.
You delivered a forecast that was probably too far ahead for its time.
You said the euro would go through and it would first drop but then peak with deflation in 2008 after the markets crash from 2007.
You elaborated saying currency rises during a crash when people run to cash.
You also said the euro would then decline for 13 years into 2021 before a new system will emerge.

That stuck in my mind and I watched it fall then rally into 2008 and the crash of 2007 you forecast some 10 years in advance.
My question is simply this. You said, if I remember correctly, that the dollar would soar thereafter and we would see another monetary crisis as we did in 1985.

The Australian government is looking to impose penalties if a consumer pays cash and FAILS to get a receipt so they can end the underground economy.
They are expecting to change the culture by forcing consumers to ask for a fiscal receipts when paying cash for anything.
Now the Australian government has moved beyond eliminating cash, they seek to punish people who pay in cash.

This anti-free society the Australian government is establishing is just off the charts.
They have set up a Black Economy Taskforce to hunt down their own citizens.
This is becoming very dangerous. Can you imagine a government stalking your children?
This gestapo agency is indeed spying on its own citizens in every aspect just as did the NAZI government in Germany.
They have put forth 35 recommendations contained in the interim report where they are arguing the need for “consumer-focused action” to crack down on cash payments.

[Traxo]

The finch is on my window sill.
How wonderfully anti-correlated BTC and LTC at this magnificent juncture.
Couldn’t be more perfectly scripted. Do not look a gift horse in the mouth.
Take the trade!
Couldn’t be more perfectly scripted as predicted in advance.


Coinomi appears to work for splitting BTC to Bitcoin Cash if instructions below are followed and also for trading on ShapeShift inside the wallet. It can be installed from Playstore and the security is backed up by 12 english words written down on paper.

https://medium.com/@coinomi/collecting-your-free-bitcoin-cash-coins-44fcc6008bb6

Disclaimer: making no claims about security.

[Traxo]

http://trilema.com/2015/i-think-you-drastically-overestimate-the-military-importance-of-nuclear-weapons/#comment-114220

The summary is here:

http://btcbase.org/log/2017-08-12#1697218

[theheolyn]

Note @AnonyMint thinks possibly grave danger is coming to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency soon. New more dire possibilities that should be weighed for likelihood:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2085109.msg20863045#msg20863045

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2085109.msg20850299#msg20850299

[THX 1138]

In addition to the piece on Armstrong's blog  from a week or so back regarding cash https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/is-australian-government-crossing-the-line-into-a-totalitarian-state/ I see today that the Australian govt is continuing to tighten the noose, this time with cryptocurrencies: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/australia-cracks-down-bitcoin-exchanges-unnecessary-new-aml-law

"...Australia's regulators are cracking down on bitcoin, creating a new set of guidelines that will make it more difficult for customers to trade on local cryptocurrency exchanges by mandating needless anti-money laundering controls..."

One of the commenters underneath the article AtATrESICI made an interesting point:

"...they [the govt] could create a law that treated any blockchain software and client software (wallets and the alike) as the equivalent to child porn. In my thinking if something like that happened most peanutz would not fuck with the technology. Note your ISP can see what ports are being used to transmit data and use said information to find people running prohibited blockchain software. Governments could also setup transaction servers vaguely like what they do with exit nodes on the TOR network, the outcome of finding users would be very similar..."

Then further down, Advoc8tr says:

"Nah .. you don't understand the modern Australian. They absolutely cream themselves at any opportunity to ban or tax something for 'your own good'  the Rugged individuals of years gone are a mythical creature confined to the vast expansive interior where no man goes.

Being regulated will cause MORE Australians to embrace Bitcoin ... they can't resist a government sanctioned opportunity which they can reconcile with their howls of entitlement to be made whole should their investment fail.
None of this shit matters anyway.  The P2P exchanges are rolling out with several already active and if you have all your capital in crypto-assets already then there is little need to convert to fiat or expose yourself to an Australian based centralized exchange.

Can't see it, can't tax it, can't steal it.   Not as simple as directing your bank to freeze all your accounts .."

[realr0ach]

Note @AnonyMint thinks possibly grave danger is coming to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency soon.

I have joined the ranks of anonymint in posting with a noob account since my other acct was breached or stolen somehow.

Slightly different subject.  This guy's videos on Youtube are some of the best content that nobody has discovered yet.  I'm sure you will find the following two videos interesting:

Japanese herbivore men: What created them? What can MGTOW learn from them?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaTBXDvxxzI

Why MGTOW Should Move Expat Abroad: Escape Feminism

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpYay_nvpzo



And an end of the world starter pack of stuff I figured out back in 2004 that I saw someone recently compile that should lead to a seneca cliff in oil:

Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/

New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn

We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg

Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

International Energy Agency Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
[Suspicious link removed]j.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html

UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/

Halliburton says oil will Spike due to shortages by 2020 After $2 Trillion in Industry Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion

Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Oil-Price-Spike-May-Cripple-The-Industry.html

HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb

UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html

MarketWatch : Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead around 2020
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-should-brace-for-a-devastating-oil-shock-ahead-2017-07-03

German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments/democracies
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html

The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. -Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani

[tabnloz]

Whenever the ghost of Anonymint gets back on his 73rd account, I would like him to comment on my statement that people got the game theory of BCH vs BTC wrong:

I like to consider my hedl BCH as an insurance on the unlikely black swan of BTC losing value as the real chain.

You are correct.  Random noobs on this forum INCORRECTLY stated that the only valid game theory path was to dump BCH (think it was derived from some nonsense Szabo said).  He made the error of assuming you're required to keep one token at all.  The real optimal path is to dump both of them in event of rough consensus attack, meaning what's going on right now.  If you refuse to dump both for whatever reason, then the optimal path to try and minimize loss would just be to hold all of them.

Wouldn't logic dictate that if this fork is backed by Wu and Ver, with their millions of dollars, then they aren't just going to let it die? Seems plain as day to me that it will be dumped and pumped repeatedly.

[theheolyn]

He asked me to pass along his analysis about patriarchy, decentralization, and George Soros.