Slowly but surely the Bid Wall creeps forward...
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Who said it was simple? MtGox isn't #1 because of the quality of their site/engine. It's liquidity. It's a chicken/egg argument. There are plenty of market leaders who are poorly run. They remain market leaders for a number of reasons. You have this naive business paradigm that the biggest site is clearly the best, clearly well run, otherwise they wouldn't be number #1! Sadly in the real world, where real people live, that's not always true.
They are still there, while plenty of others were taken down by hacks, regulations, or plain arbitrary decisions from banks. They are also located outside of USA. Which, in my book, is an advantage. Does liquidity play in their favor? Sure. However, I would argue that this is only a small advantage. Another exchange, with the same characteristics as MtGox (except the liquidity), could probably take a good chunk of the market by offering smaller fees. Liquidity is a huge advantage. Have you been on the other exchanges? People do offer smaller fees. Why was Internet Explorer the #1 browser for so long? Because they were better? Being bigger, being the market leader is a huge competitive advantage. My point wasn't that MtGox sucks. It was more about my suspicion on why they haven't fixed the trade engine. It's not money. It's not because no one can fix it. They have 25M plans to be legit but there's no way they've made 25M. Unless of course they've been running a shady exchange, which also explains why they don't bring in outside help to fix the trading engine (or why it lags in the first place, because that creates more places they can inject trades). |
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Lol... It wasn't an apology to you. BitcoinAshley is actually a thoughtful member of the community.
You should learn to be nice. You're offensive. Being an asshole doesn't help anybody.
Anyway, congratulations, after 3 years on this board, you are the first one to make it on my ignore list.
She calls more people retarded then I do. And so far I've agreed with everyone she's slapped with that label. You're the one who started with the snarky/sarcastic remarks. I just ended it. Show some respect, I was here before you.  |
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LOL... when did I comment on programming or math in this thread? I agree that MtGox is crap, but complaining about it doesn't do any good.
Ad hominems don't make you right, and when they are baseless, they hurt your credibility.
Ad hominems? What the fuck. From the guy throwing out the "let's see you do better" logical fallacy. But wait, you agree with me. Do you even know what ad hominem means? I already know I'm right (which you agree with), I'm just calling you out because it's baffling anyone would object to discussion of extremely concerning flaws in the trading engine and why after 3 years they refuse to address it despite the fact they have plenty of money. It had nothing to do with my argument, MtGox is indefensible, that's a given. Your programming knowledge comes into question when you defend MtGoxs trading engine. "Where's your exchange" implies it's harder then it looks, I doubt you could do better, and they're not as awful as you're saying. Which is why I thought you were 6 years old (and/or retarded). It's hardly baseless, your reply does make me think you're autistic. Sorry. Do you know what ad hominem means? An ad hominem (Latin for "to the man" or "to the person"[1]), short for argumentum ad hominem, is an argument made personally against an opponent instead of against their argument.
Instead of addressing the topic, you called me retarded  . Also, I never defended the MtGox trade engine. It is harder than it looks, but mostly from a regulatory standpoint. I agree their system is crap and could easily be improved upon. But, instead of finding out the truth you make assumptions about me that lead you to believe I am of low intelligence. I'm just tired of hearing the same shit repeated over and over. No, I addressed the topic, THEN called you retarded. That was a totally separate issue. But the key point is why don't they fix it. I personally think they're insider trading the fuck out of the exchange which is why they keep running their home-brewed POS engine. Because they don't want someone else coming in and knowing what they're doing. In 2011 you could just say they're new, growing paints, etc.. But now? It's highly suspicious they refuse to address the problem. Call fucking IBM/Oracle, break them off 500k, pretty confident they'll fix it up within a month. As sloppy as Oracle can be, they still have some of the best DBAs on the planet available 24.7. The fact they've made more money this year then all of last year, the trade engine is still a mess, brings up more and more questions about their credibility. It points to something else going on besides "it's a complicated system". |
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Sorry, I can only take so many YEARS of bitching and moaning about the same shit before I get sarcastic. You've only had to put up with it for 3 months, so you probably have some patience left. If he had added anything new, I wouldn't complain, but every point he brought up has been beat to death.
Apology not accepted. You should learn to control your nerd rage. It's offensive. The fact the lag continues after 3 years does open up new questions. It's clearly a fixable problem given the money they have. Why they won't bring in outside help to fix it is troubling. There is a cool feature called ignore. There's also a cool feature called, "keep scrolling". Your mouse probably already has it. If it doesn't, they're pretty cheap. Look for the newfangled "scroll wheel". It's insane. It lets you scroll through the page really quickly. Skipping any shit you don't feel like reading. Crazy huh? Next time you get REALLY REALLY upset at a post, take a time out. Here's 10 things you can try to make life on the internet a lot easier. Mayo Clinic - Anger management: 10 tips to tame your temper |
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You can comment all you want. Meanwhile, they are there and making money. If things were this simple, they would have been out-competed years ago. Or you have an incredible business opportunity. So... when is your exchange launching?  Who said it was simple? MtGox isn't #1 because of the quality of their site/engine. It's liquidity. It's a chicken/egg argument. There are plenty of market leaders who are poorly run. They remain market leaders for a number of reasons. You have this naive business paradigm that the biggest site is clearly the best, clearly well run, otherwise they wouldn't be number #1! Sadly in the real world, where real people live, that's not always true. |
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LOL... when did I comment on programming or math in this thread? I agree that MtGox is crap, but complaining about it doesn't do any good.
Ad hominems don't make you right, and when they are baseless, they hurt your credibility.
Ad hominems? What the fuck. From the guy throwing out the "let's see you do better" logical fallacy. But wait, you agree with me. Do you even know what ad hominem means? I already know I'm right (which you agree with), I'm just calling you out because it's baffling anyone would object to discussion of extremely concerning flaws in the trading engine and why after 3 years they refuse to address it despite the fact they have plenty of money. It had nothing to do with my argument, MtGox is indefensible, that's a given. Your programming knowledge comes into question when you defend MtGoxs trading engine. "Where's your exchange" implies it's harder then it looks, I doubt you could do better, and they're not as awful as you're saying. Which is why I thought you were 6 years old (and/or retarded). It's hardly baseless, your reply does make me think you're autistic. Sorry. |
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Yup. I've done a fair bit of work with databases, there's no reason on earth a company that makes millions has a trading engine that lags that hard. Someone on reddit claims they calculated MtGox can handle 40 trades a second. 40?! Even 400 would be surprisingly low.
Agreed, they're slower by orders of magnitude than they should be. A friend of mine works for a company that designs & programs custom hardware used by these high speed traders. Order are processed in 1-10 microseconds, not tens of milliseconds. The kicker is that they're been slow for years, which is inexcusable. And they never bothered to rebrand to something bitcoin specific instead of Magic The Gather Online eXchange. By comparison, this is what 10 milliseconds of stock trading of Merck looks like between various worldwide exchanges (London, NYSE, etc): https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rB5jJuMP84EI'm taking advantage of the lull in activity to cash out of Gox, and after their wire arrives, I'll send a wire to bitstamp. I hope the exchange spread lasts until funds arrive. Thank you. Plenty of single server databases can do 1000s of queries a second. They've made millions. WTF. Anyone who has done any works on databases, should realize there's a huge problem when the trading engine lags 1 minute, 5 minutes, 10 minutes? Huh? To show how bad it is, here's a simple example of how you can lag the fuck out of MtGox. Break MtGox EngineThe fact this works, shows how poorly the whole setup is designed. But wait, I don't own an exchange, I should just be quiet. Despite the fact it's PAINFULLY obvious Gox is a pile of shit. And NotMe should change his sig because he doesn't have a clue about programming, or math. Sorry, you just don't. |
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Cool. When is your exchange launching?
Oh right, unless you run an existing exchange, you can't possibility comment on how MtGox is run. Maybe those 7 people on the planet can chime in. Are you 6 years old (and/or retarded)? |
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You know what is messed up is that a 100k BTC buy order should be pretty much instant. What follows it is the part that may cause lag but I always find it odd that when the market moves really quickly in either direction gox lags like fuck. It is embarassing.
Yup. I've done a fair bit of work with databases, there's no reason on earth a company that makes millions has a trading engine that lags that hard. Someone on reddit claims they calculated MtGox can handle 40 trades a second. 40?! Even 400 would be surprisingly low. Either they're stubborn and refuse to hire outside help. Or they don't want outside help because they are insider trading the fuck out of market orders. The more trades that queue up (during lag) the more they can make. Large market order? Hang on, lets buy up some limit orders from the front, re-sell them at the back of the market order and we never lose. Mark Karpeles has stated they want to go legit in the US and it will cost 25M. Wait, 25M? You've maybe made 4-5M? You have 18 employees? Where's the other 20M+ coming from? He's either going to use our fiat or MtGox has been insider trading the fuck out of the exchange. The only reason I can see them sticking with such a poorly designed/running trading engine, is because they don't want anyone seeing how it works. Combine that with the lofty goals they have and no way they could pay for them unless they've been ripping us off for years. The whole site is shady, the CEO is shady, the sooner they're dead and gone the better. |
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A candy for the bulls:  Wonder how much lag would be created on Gox with a 100k BTC market order. Over/under 3 days? I'm going over. |
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Clearly someone did, or they wouldn't have sold.
Glad you see my point. So what's your prediction? I don't have one. I just don't think this overly bullish ambiance is a good thing. Like I said in another thread, this time I will unload my coins if it goes down, contrary to 2011. The bigger difference in the fact you'll buy back in when it bottoms out, which was contrary to what most people did in 2011. |
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This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.
BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.
Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.
We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.
Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.
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Why don't you go spend $1M and move the price to $125?
Oh you mean why don't other people go spend $1M buying Bitcoins? Demand goes up and down. None of the stories have made someone go "1M market buy order, done!". That's not that outragous. And there's been plenty of VC money going into Bitcoin, it is the new tech. Doesn't mean there's millions just waiting to buy up Bitcoins. It comes and goes, stability/sideways action is seen as a bullish sign. Relax everything is fine.
We're up 900% YTD. And people are complaining about a few weeks of stability? On behalf of Bitcoin, I'm sorry we're not 2000% YTD, you'll have to survive on just 900% for now.
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Since the Wall is pretty dead, here's some fresh news for the lazy. |
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression is that this is a small issue (from the censorship perspective). You can just proxy/VPN your way to the site correct? And of course then you are good to go, as the bitcoin network gives no fucks about who sends coins to who. Unlike with the online poker situation in previous years where they didn't have bitcoin to get around the funding issues and blocking of payment processors.
Correct. It's much easier to get around the issue with Bitcoins. Get a vpn, get a proxy, and you can access the site. You can use Bitcoins (no ip) and you're good to go. If the sites block US IPs, they're protected from the US Govt. US players can easily get around it, using Bitcoins it's extremely hard (sometimes impossible) to track, and the US Govt can't do shit. Bitcoin gambling sites blocking US IPs is a good move, long overdue. The more Bitcoin related sites that get and stay legal the better. |
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Every bit increases the known magnitude of incompetence though. God knows how incompetent they really are, at least they managed to stay in business if that means anything.
This is what I think happened. The new FinCEN rules came out. It meant if you exchange virtual currency, you better be registered as a MSB with FinCEN. MtGox didn't want to do that, so they were working a deal to offload all their US accounts to CoinLab. Thus solving the problem. Turns out they back out of the deal, keep using Dwolla to handle US accounts, and end up getting caught. I have no doubt Coinlab dropped a friendly "tip" to DHS about MtGox. This is probably why they only went after their Dwolla, they failed to register as a MSB. Typical Gox failure, instead of properly try to solve the problem, they tried to work a deal, backed out, it blew up in their face. In terms of the Bitcoin market it's fairly minor. It's a boost to other exchanges, people will get registered, people will be legit, it's good for everyone overall. This has wider percussions than satoshidice though if they are affected so is the entirety of Bitcoin gambling sites operating on clearnet.
You shouldn't let Americans gamble with a virtual currency on your site. Does everyone forget what happened with poker? All gambling sites on the internet should ban US IPs. It's not worth the trouble. For satoshidice you can still bet, still get paid, Bitcoin doesn't know your IP. I'm sure someone will create a site that scans the blockchain so you can view "recent bets". That's about the only thing useful on the site. People will post the addresses to place bets. People thinking that it would always be legal for Americans to bet Bitcoins online were being foolish. People getting legal, setting up the site properly, protecting themselves from future legal matters, that's all good. Like most poker sites online, block americans, problem solved. There's a reason WebMoney blocks Americans. It's not worth the trouble. Maybe, the sum is quite substantial and I think it can threaten mtgox as a business, perhaps bankruptcy? We don't yet know how the market would be without gox. I'd say it's a considerable risk.
In those types of lawsuits, claiming damages it's usually a ridiculous amount. I doubt MtGox backing out cost them much more then maybe a million or two. This stuff usually gets resolved way before a case, I'm sure they'll settle out of court. Otherwise the lawyers end up the only ones making money. Also even if they lost, collecting the money is another matter. MtGox has a number of lawyers, I don't think this puts their business at risk. At least not for years. I'm sure a lawyer who knows more then I can comment on these types of contract disputes. From what I know, CoinLab ever seeing 75m is extremely unlikely. They'd have to win, and a judge agree, MtGox appeal, MtGox lose appeal, and MtGox pay. That's a 5-8 year process. |
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I mean then the things that are causing the FUD, turns to facts
Well in case of the current situation there is a considerable amount of it. People fear that the DHS seizing the mtgox dwolla account wasn't the last of it. Satoshi dice has blocked the US out of uncertainty. There is considerable doubt that the mtgox/coinlab deal gonna work out. That is a fact, look around the related threads. And it is different that somebody coming along writing something like: "Bitcoin is unsafe because everybody can steal the coins, operating systems are unsafe and so is Bitcoin.". The former are concrete events with their respectable outcome. The latter is the infamous "spreading of FUD." There are two kinds of FUD, the one based on agenda/misinterpretation and the other one based on factual events. US Govt doesn't take something down piecemeal. Review Kim Dotcom and poker to see how they work. Just taking the Dwolla account lets MtGox change domains (off .com), move servers, move money (their accounts in Japan likely have much much much more money). DHS/DOJ don't play nice and give people "warning shots". MtGox being incompetent isn't news. They shouldn't have let people use Dwolla. The reason they were probably interested in the Coinlab deal was because they knew they weren't legal. Coinlab probably knew his and probably reported them. Again, MtGox being incompetent isn't news. It would be news if they weren't. Blocking US ips was a smart move by SatoshiDice. It's not worth the legal risk. Americans can still gamble, they can find out how, the website was garbage anyway. MtGox/Coinlab lawsuit will likely drag on for years, has very little to do with the market and/or Bitcoin. CampBX uses Dwolla. They're based in the USA. DHS could shut down their entire operation. But they're still up, they're still letting people use Dwolla to get Bitcoins. So clearly it's not an attack on Bitcoins. It's merely MtGox getting caught doing something they shouldnt. Med/Long term it was good news. People leaving MtGox, moving to other exchanges. We need more bad news for MtGox, so more people will move. |
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Yes what happens when Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt turns to facts? That can always happen, but it can also become a self-fulfilling prophecy. When does being cautious turn into outright paranoia that feeds on itself and infects others? If you look for bad news you will always find it, if you look for positive news you will find plenty of that around as well. Most of us will be biased towards one or the other and try to think of things that reinforces our own position. In the end nobody has a definitive answer, but those who can think with a clear head and stay very flexible one way or the other usually have an edge. But they can be wrong as well.  There is only one bad news. => crack RIPEMD-160 => crack SHA-256 => crack ECDSA ... (I think/believe impossible) :-) so until somebody is able to compute private key from your public bitcoin address, bitcoin will only rise. The only way would be to generate billions of keys per second, and hope that one of them matches up with someone else. xD It would still, with a billion keys per second, take a near eternity. and what about a trillion keys per second? 10,000,000s of years. EDIT: Looks like my estimate was too low. |
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