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301  Other / Beginners & Help / Some rebalancing questions. on: November 24, 2021, 07:26:35 PM
So I started this topic on another board, and it was deleted. Since no explanation was offered, all I can do is guess it was on the wrong board. A heads-up would've been nice though.
Either way, this is important to me. I hope it won't get deleted this time. Here's a copy/paste of said post.

As I’ve stated before, I’ve been following several courses on cryptocurrency trading and investing. In one of them, I came across a website (Shrimpy.io) that provides automatic portfolio rebalancing to investors.

Now, for some reason, they have a whitepaper you can download. I just read it. Very interesting indeed.
Of course the whitepaper is  more of a cleverly disguised advertisement, but it still made for a good read, and raised a couple of questions.

Two kinds of rebalancing. Why not three?

First question is fairly simple. Rebalancing can be performed periodically (regardless of the deviation percentage between different assets, providing there’s some), or on a threshold basis, independently of time. But, why not combine both? Let’s say setting up an “X” period, but also a given threshold at the same time, so the rebalance would be performed should either be reached. 

Then, there are a few more questions:

As per the whitepaper, there are a number of possible scenarios that would call for rebalancing:

Pump and dump: an asset gets a quick price hike, and then falls back to it’s normal(ish) price range.

Flash crash and recovery: pretty much the opposite to the pump and dump: the asset’s price drops suddenly, and later recovers to a somewhat normal value.

Sideways movement: The asset price stays within a given range.

Slow death: the asset price drops slowly, and doesn’t recover.

Slow take off: the asset price starts an upward trend.

Sharp decline: the asset price drops sharply, and stabilizes to a new baseline.

Sharp jump: the asset price increases sharply, and stabilizes to a new baseline.

Now, there are several scenarios that worry me:

Sideways movement: of course, this is already covered in trading: you buy when the price approaches the support and sell when it reaches the resistance. Great. But a scenario can arise (depending on the rebalancing period you may have selected), in which you end up buying high and selling low. On the other hand, using a combined strategy under those conditions could prove lucrative.

Pump and dump: the price starts rising, and you  sell some to keep your portfolio right. Then it keeps going up, so you sell more of it. Then it falls back to the baseline, and you have to buy back part of it. Sure, you won’t lose money (you sold high and, with any luck, you’d be buying low), but you’d have made more money if you had kept an eye on it, and sold at (or near) the highest price.


Slow death/Sharp decline: whether the price of an asset drops slowly or suddenly, you can potentially end up sinking your entire portfolio on a sinking coin. That’s the scenario that worries me most.
So, here’s my idea: wouldn’t be feasible to set up kind of a “panic price” (similar to a stop loss) at which to stop correcting that cryptocurrency, just in case?

At the same time, wouldn’t it make sense to use sort of a combined strategy (besides the third rebalancing option I mentioned above), using some trading techniques that might be useful for some of those scenarios, in order to maximize profit?

And finally, would it make sense to keep a small amount of a stablecoin (I’m thinking USDT), to quickly liquidate (or buy) a coin when needed?

And finally, my main question: am I reading too much into it? I have a tendency not to trust anything that paints me a  perfect scenario or outcome. My personal experience is they don’t exist.
Do you guys know this website? Is anybody using it?

Thank you all in advance. Smiley
302  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is the world safe from the threat of the corona virus? on: November 24, 2021, 07:04:00 PM
It has been more than two years that the world has been faced with the corona virus. each country has sought and created the best vaccine in the form of medicine.
Is the world now safe against the corona virus, what do you think?

Coronavirus is not a threat to the world, it's a threat to the human race (which is just one out of about 17 million living species).
No country sought or created "the best vaccine". Some countries developed the vaccines more suitable to cope with the emergency, the best way they could. It's important to understand these are emergency vaccines, therefore not "the best" by a long shot.

And finally, the world is not, has never been, nor will ever be safe. It's just the one we live in.
303  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Not even ONE state legislature has passed a covid vaccine mandate – on: November 24, 2021, 05:14:03 PM
Well, I hate to participate in something illegal, but for what it may be worth, I have had both doses of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, and last time I checked I was still alive and kicking. In fact, some might argue the very fact that I'm typing this reply may be enough to prove I'm still ok.
Then again, that may be because I'm not living in any US state... Roll Eyes
304  Other / Off-topic / Re: Residency in El Salvador on: November 24, 2021, 04:16:36 PM
I understand. Risk is relative and not absolute, but I wouldn't like to miscalculate it too much.

That depends. "Risk" is a somewhat ambiguous word. Risk can be relative when you talk about cryptocurrency, but if somebody puts a bullet in your head (not such a strange occurrence in some countries), you're absolutely dead.
I disagree about emigrating being such a big step, and I lived in 4 different countries, so while I'm not an expert, I guess I know a thing or 2 about it.
Of course there are inconveniences associated with it. You need to adapt to a new culture, and, in your case, a new language, and Spanish isn't the easiest language to learn. But other than that, it's just a trip.

I am seriously considering the idea, but I'm also struck by a lack of interest from other bitcoin users and how that contrasts with their otherwise overwhelmingly positive reaction to the news. It seems to me related to the expected long-run performance of the bond(s). I made a specific thread for moving/settling issues in case it turns into a useful resource, if not by me perhaps by someone else.

So far my only feedback is shipping companies are unable or hesitant to provide service and have warned about risks of loss of/damage to items in transit and customs issues. Visas are available without reference to bitcoin by showing income of ~$24k p.a.

I honestly think this whole issue is being hyped up, and taken out of context. El Salvador accepted BTC as legal tender because its economy was in ruins, and there are real benefits when getting your own currency on the back of another, stronger one. It does have a price, though.

The issue with insecurity there is a very real one. One of the very first things I learned (and loved very much) about living in the US, was having the chance to trust other people, and have a generally laid back attitude. That doesn't happen in Latin America. Life is nowhere near as simple.

If you're dead set about emigrating, I'd recommend you look to go somewhere else. if you're dead set about going to El Salvador, I'd say go there for a couple of months, and check the place out. First, it's gonna  be much easier for you to inquire about the legal requirements to move there once you're in country, and second, you'll be able to really get a sense of the place, see what you like, and ultimately make an informed decision.

Just to provide some background, I emigrated from Argentina to the US in 2000. Loved everything of it. Spent almost 13 years in the US, until I was deported in 2013. Then, in 2015 I went to Spain, having researched extensively online, and thinking everything would be like I had read on the Internet. Big mistake. Spain is a beautiful country, but it's not at all what I was expecting. So I came back to Buenos Aires and immediately, and relying solely on recommendations, I moved to Lima, Peru. Hated every minute of it. Lima is (no intention to offend anybody), about the shittiest city I've ever seen.
Now I'm back in Buenos Aires, daydreaming with getting out, this time for good. But I learned my lesson, I'm not flying blind anymore. 
305  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Binance is advertising in Buenos Aires on: November 24, 2021, 03:00:51 PM
Aren't we going there soon? Some countries are doing taxation already slowly but I'm sure when someone lead them this will go globally but it will take time, since we all knew that being in cryptocurrency is decentralized, and if we don't keep that perspective then what would be left to crypto the one that Satoshi vision will be gone one by one that it should be used without any restriction.

Well, they'd have to discuss the legality of taxing cryptocurrency transactions, as they basically take place "nowhere". The IRS has already taken an (albeit clumsy) approach to it, which I'm sure any half wit attorney could wipe the floor with, but there's still the inconvenience, not to mention all the people that will pay without even having a second thought about it. Worst case scenario,  I guess transactions made through an American exchange (in the case of Americans, of course) might be taxable, but in the end that only makes a case for using Tor(if needed), and some exchange elsewhere. Either way, if the IRS wasn't capable of coming up with a better solution, it's not unrealistic at all for me to expect a much dumber move from my government, as they make idiocy a religion here.
306  Economy / Economics / Re: Possible market crash in the near future? on: November 24, 2021, 02:34:18 PM
Sooo...
I keep learning, and I keep seeing some scenarios that are widely regarded as catastrophic by "normal people" (like a market crash) are not that terrible if you took the necessary precautions.
Sure, it won't be a walk in the park (if it actually happens. Or "when"), but it shouldn't be that bad. It's just a matter of being ready.

Thank you all for the replies. This thread (like all others) has been very informative.  Smiley
307  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Binance is advertising in Buenos Aires on: November 23, 2021, 08:28:44 PM
Well, there are several reasons why taxes in Argentina are nothing to worry about, at least for the next few years, but they would definitely be an unwanted development.
I guess it was kinda surprising to see such big billboards all of a sudden. Maybe Argentina will make it legal tender, like El Salvador? Tongue
308  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Binance is advertising in Buenos Aires on: November 23, 2021, 03:48:18 PM
Yeah, maybe there was advertising elsewhere Iḿ not aware of. The city of Buenos Aires is divided in half between wealthy and poor people. I live in the crappy part. Grin
It's not surprising they aim their advertising at paying for goods with BTC and not at investing, as there isn't much money in here for it. In any case, Argentinian tax law is fairly lax, but if they start showing an interest on cryptocurrencies, that's definitely the kind of news I don't need right now.
I'm gonna have to move to the Cayman Islands... Grin
309  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is Somebody Recording You Now? on: November 23, 2021, 02:32:48 PM
BernyJB: I'm not referring to Internet traffic, at all.  Of course, All of that is monitored, and probably recorded.
Re: the Essay...  That's Very Interesting.
Maybe you'd mentioned it to somebody at the bar, who then decided that it needed to be deleted, in the interest of "national security".  
Write it again.  It'll make a great movie, someday.
 Wink

Well, it wasn't really "Internet traffic", as I never uploaded it. I was working on my computer, offline (or so I thought) when it happened.
I don't go to bars, nor do I have much of a social life at all. And my work at the time didn't leave any room for that, as I was working as a security guard (which is akin to a mummy in Argentina), so I'm certain, without a shadow of a doubt, that until my computer got connected, NOBODY had a clue that essay even existed.
About the movie, that'd be a long ass, very boring flick indeed. Grin
No torture, no deaths (besides a few guys that died out of neglect, and were carefully covered up), no sex at all (there was strict gender segregation), nothing. Just systematic medical service denial, a "doctor" that could've been great at flipping burgers, an extreme food scarcity (meaning they starved us half to death, to the point that some guards couldn't stand it and bought food for us out of their own pocket, which was greatly appreciated), and a general effort to make us feel as unwelcomed as humanly possible. If Abu Ghraib and Gitmo didn't make it to the movies, I doubt this ever will.
In any case, it was (and it is now) very painful to relive it, and it's now in the past. I spend almost 13 very happy years in the US. Today, I wouldn't go back for the world.
310  Other / Beginners & Help / Binance is advertising in Buenos Aires on: November 23, 2021, 01:51:50 PM
So a couple of days ago, I was walking in Buenos Aires and I saw a bunch of big Binance ads (pay with BTC, etc. The kind of ads aimed to the regular Joes, not to investors).
Is anybody else seeing that kind of advertising in their city?
To be honest, I'm kinda worried they might wake up to cryptocurrencies and start taxing them... 
311  Economy / Economics / Re: Credit cards | A scam or a tool? on: November 17, 2021, 08:32:18 PM
They're tools, and like all tools, they're useful if you know how to use them, and if the product's quality matches its cost.
In some countries, like the US, credit cards can be great, because their cost is very low (I know somebody is gonna disagree with me on this), and because their usability is very high.
In other countries (like mine) it's the contrary: they're outrageously expensive and not that useful, and the extra money you pay for using them (in fees, overcharges, interests, etc) offsets any benefit their use may provide.
And then you have the user: you can use a credit card to start a business, or you can bankrupt yourself in no time flat by buying something you can't possibly afford, at a time you can't possibly afford it.
If anything, you can say getting a credit card gives you instant power and delayed responsibility. That has the potential to be a great thing, or a great problem.
312  Economy / Economics / Re: Possible market crash in the near future? on: November 17, 2021, 07:36:36 PM
Exactly, the majority of the cap of the whole cryptocurrency market is concentrated just on the top 20 coins to the point we can disregard what happens to any coin outside of it as it is not of importance for the market at all due to their size, however while many people see in crash  only negative effects the good part of a crash is that a great deal of those coins disappear, unfortunately since it is so easy to create new coins we see other coins emerging really quickly to replace the ones that disappeared.

Then again, one of the most shameless scams in cryptocurrency history (Bitconnect - the crypto Ponzi scheme) got to be in the top 10, and not everybody sits there.
Yeah, you can argue it didn't last long. But it got to be huge, and a lot of people lost their shirts on it. It's true it even showed the classic pyramid on its whitepaper, so it could be argued that those who fell for it ultimately deserved it, because the writing was on the wall. Then again, how many of us can honestly say they never fell for that stuff?

Meanwhile, the point I heard (and the reason I started the thread) is precisely that there are way too many currencies on the market. Right now, CMC lists 14378, which is definitely a lot, in a world with about 200 fiat currencies.
So I keep on reading and learning on fundamentals research, and how to avoid being scammed, or ultimately falling for a coin with no future. Trading seems to be a somewhat "easier" (for lack of a better word) way to start, as the risk of holding the currencies for a shorter period seems to be lower, and there seems to be more ways to somehow minimize that risk, but I keep asking myself if I'm not overreacting.
Am I?

Fakhrulenclix good point. But how many of those people will actually see a profit? True, Bitcoin has shown to be strong and reliable, and today it's like fishing in a fish tank. But the currencies that are in that range are just a handful, in an ever-growing market. To which extent is that sustainable?
313  Other / Off-topic / Re: No matter If you try to educate People they never listen on: November 17, 2021, 06:09:49 PM
I know a guy (he's the one who introduced me to cryptocurrencies) who started two months ago with $60. A month ago, he showed me a screenshot, showing he had $1156 in his account. That's what made me start researching.
Then, he started copy-trading. Now he has $500.
I keep on telling him to learn about the whole thing. He keeps agreeing with everything I say... and does nothing.
And he keeps bleeding money.

But I don't mind. I told him already, many times. If he won't listen, it's on him.
314  Economy / Economics / Re: Elon musk now the richest man in earth on: November 17, 2021, 05:54:04 PM
Quote
Elon Musk has entered rarified air in the world billionaire rankings. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO is not only currently the richest person in the world, but is now worth as much as fellow billionaires Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined.





Can he sustain it for how long?

So what do you think?

Tell him to enjoy it while it lasts, cuz I'M A COMIN'! Grin
315  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Using a software wallet on a dedicated, strictly offline OS. on: November 17, 2021, 05:43:23 PM
I'm reading about the whole thing, watching courses and whatnot, and I'm starting to think the whole "risk" thing is a bit... overrated.
Yeah, the risk definitely does exist. But there are thousand of cryptocurrency traders that keep enormous amounts of money in online wallets (and even in the exchanges), and nothing (much) happens.
I think I'm gonna have to rethink my strategy...
316  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is Somebody Recording You Now? on: November 17, 2021, 05:30:03 PM
I agree with the statements about it being a whole lot of useless data.
Are you asking if a number of intelligence agencies (not only American) are monitoring internet traffic? Most likely. It'd be naive to think otherwise.

A few years ago, I started writing a bit of an essay, about the things I had to endure during my stay under ICE's "care" (if you can call it that), while I was "detained" (not "arrested", as the American government loves its euphemisms) at the "Broward Transition Center", in Pompano Beach, Fl.
It was mostly a cathartic thing. I wasn't planning on showing it to anybody.
Most of it was done offline (as I don't have Internet access where I live).
I had typed over 100 pages already, when my computer suddenly connected to the internet for a few minutes. Probably somebody had their phone setup as a hot spot nearby.
All of a sudden, the whole thing just "disappeared" from my computer. The whole file.
Now, I'm not gonna be as infantile to think it was "bad luck", or, as somebody suggested on a different forum, that I deleted it "by mistake". I've been working on computers since 1991, I made plenty of mistakes, but never something that dumb.

Either way, it wasn't important. It served a purpose, which was to turn on a blank page. Like I said, I wasn't planning to show it to anybody.
But the "coincidence" also served a purpose: it turbocharged my paranoia about privacy and about Internet. 
317  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Gender-Equality: 2021 on: November 17, 2021, 05:01:51 PM
If my company has all white men employees, I'd fire my HR manager since he/she clearly doesn't do the job. IQ-wise, at least there must be a bunch of Asian in my company.
You want someone who can do the job at a minimum of '100%' ability level. The best white male candidate can do 105%. The black female candidate can do the job at 108%. The HR manager has hired the white male at 105%, he's hired someone who is more than qualified to do the job well... he can't really be fired for that.

I agree, but I'd take it a step  further: If you fire your HR manager because of that, you should really be firing yourself, as you don't have any respect for your HR manager, and you're trying to do his job without knowing the first thing about why he decided to do  what he did.
If you suspect an employee of yours might not be doing his/her job properly (or at least according to your guidelines), the least you can do is investigate the issue, before taking action against anybody.
In any case, hiring an employee on the sole basis of their gender, skin color, origin, or whatever other "politically correct" reason, is as insulting (or it should be) to the employee as it would be to discriminate them for the same reasons.
318  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How to get started ? on: November 15, 2021, 05:50:43 PM
With any luck, I'm about to get started as well.
My advise: do a whole lot of research. Ask questions here, there's a lot of knowledgeable people willing to share.
Find courses. I got 5 courses, so far, from Udemy.com. They're cheap enough (wait until they have a sale), and are very good. I recommend "The Complete Cryptocurrency Course", by Chris Haroun, and "The Complete Cryptocurrency Investment course" and "The Advanced Cryptocurrency Trading Course - With Strategies" by Mohsen Hassan. The other 2 I haven't watched them yet...
And finally read, read, and keep reading. Read the whitepapers for the cryptocurrencies you like, go to yahoo finance, Google reviews for the cryptos you want to get, and BE CAREFUL WHO YOU TRUST. There are lots of scammers in the crypto world.
319  Other / Off-topic / Re: Does stick shift cars better than the new automatic ones? on: November 15, 2021, 05:17:09 PM
That's a difficult question.
Traditionally, stick shift is more efficient and safer than automatic transmissions. First (and simplifying things a lot), because the car is doing your job for you, so it spends energy you should spend, and that energy comes from your fuel. And second, because in case of a brake malfunction, a stick shift car has a clutch, which allows you to use the transmission to stop the car, while the automatic car won't.

That said, with the developments within the last few decades, the differences between stick shift and automatic have become somewhat blurred and electronically managed automatic transmissions have won a lot of terrain, so the difference (while still existing) has become very small, to the point that it's now more of a personal preference thing than anything else.
And then there's a third player, which is dual clutch, semi-automatic transmissions, which also have their own following. Their major downside (as of now) is the extra weight and mechanical complexity, but that is also changing fast.
320  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Gender-Equality: 2021 on: November 15, 2021, 04:53:48 PM
gender equality most certainly DOESN'T exist, and will never do. Why?
Because we're NOT EQUAL, period.

Your statement contradicts the evidence. A huge meta-analysis has demonstrated quite conclusively that "The truth is that there are no universal, species-wide brain features that differ between the sexes".

Any differences in behaviour, inferred capability, etc. between men and women are based entirely on societal factors. The biological difference is effectively zero.

Yeah.

I see 2 problems with that line of reasoning:

1. We are not brains. And plenty of meta-analyses throughout the history of the human species show there are plenty of differences between the sexes.
2. Society has changed substantially through time, and the differences in behavior, capabilities, etc, have stayed largely the same. The biological difference is effectively (and thankfully) enormous.
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