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JorgeStolfi
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January 04, 2015, 07:44:57 PM |
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Serious question:
What's the "fair price" of one bitcoin? and how do you arrive to that conclusion?
Depends on how many people use it and the average dollar value of their purchases. that was the only approximately legit reply so far If there was no speculation (including long-term hoarding), only use for e-payments, customers (buyers of stuff or services) would buy BTC just for payments, and give them to merchants (suppliers) or payment processors, who would then sell those BTC to other customers. Let V be the total volume of such payments expressed in USD/day. Let T be the average time in days between the purchase of some BTC by one customer and its re-purchase by another customer, after going through a merchant or processor. Let N be the total number of coins available, and P the market price of one BTC. Then, the total volume of payments, in BTC/day, is N / T. Therfore, we musthave in we must have P *N / T = V, or P = V * T / N. Today, N = 13.5 M BTC. BitPay currently processes ~1 million USD per day of payments; let's guess that V is ten times that, 10 M USD/day. Let's also guess T = 30 days. (Note, we are assuming that no one is hoarding, so that everybody passes the coins on as soon as pratical.) Then we get P = 10 * 30 / 13.6 = 22 USD. |
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maranello1561
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January 04, 2015, 07:45:16 PM |
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jesus, what a price to wake up to. we've dropped below the old ATH. what the heck is going on?
I'm sure theres a good explanation/excuse like always. LOL |
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xxxgoodgirls
Legendary
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Activity: 1092
Merit: 1001
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January 04, 2015, 07:46:27 PM |
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Well here it starts my accumulation phase.
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
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Activity: 4116
Merit: 12336
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"
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January 04, 2015, 07:47:34 PM |
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it is always the same. i am so deeply sucked into bitcoin (very delusional perma bull i guess) that whenever we go over a cliff like today i think: "thaaaat´s it, finally. i will get out. i cannot take this anymore." of course i can´t sell right into the panic, so i promise myself i will sell them all once it has bounced back to a level that once looked so boring (but now looks so shiny). but when it climbs back up, i keep forgetting my despair and then - of course i never never sell once it has reached more comfortable levels. i know this and i still cannot escape. hope seems to be stronger than fear. it feels fucking bad to lose money. but in my case it seems to feel 10 times worse to lose btc. i will end up with lots of worthless btc i guess.  LOL (more of a chuckle actually) So when do we start planning the "bitcoin hits 10,000 party?" (Serious question) Depends upon how fast BTC prices recover? I'm sure if BTC prices were to reach a new ATH this year, then there would be planning for a $10k party taking place... even if BTC prices get into the $800s this year, people will begin preliminary planning of a $10k party. On the other hand, $10k party planning seems pretty bleak and infeasible at the moment... and would be considered quasi-crazy to begin any serious planning, atm.. .. Probably, even discussing such $10k party seems a little bit like a trolling job. |
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SirChiko
Legendary
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Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
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January 04, 2015, 07:48:06 PM |
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And we are still droping in value...you think we will go below 200?
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dEBRUYNE
Legendary
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Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
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January 04, 2015, 07:49:04 PM |
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They are talking about trying to lend 30-40k btc to get btc to gox levels.. (135$). Don't really believe this is true though, but you never know. |
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LOBSTER
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January 04, 2015, 07:49:19 PM |
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And we are still droping in value...you think we will go below 200?
Don't think so... |
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arklan
Legendary
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Activity: 1778
Merit: 1008
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January 04, 2015, 07:50:24 PM |
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jesus, what a price to wake up to. we've dropped below the old ATH. what the heck is going on?
I'm sure theres a good explanation/excuse like always. LOL but nothing clear and obvious... well ok then. i'll take it. makes my loan repayment easier. |
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Elwar
Legendary
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Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
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January 04, 2015, 07:51:41 PM |
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Is this low price just a ploy by those in power to make us all rich?
I have a feeling that it is.
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gog1
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January 04, 2015, 07:51:46 PM |
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this smells like a Chinese led sell off - BTC prices in Chinese exchange trades at quite a discount
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SirChiko
Legendary
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Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
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January 04, 2015, 07:53:49 PM |
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And we are still droping in value...you think we will go below 200?
Don't think so... Well i hope that it won't happen and that i'll wake up to 350+ in the morning, would be great  |
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kenji
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January 04, 2015, 07:54:09 PM |
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do you believe this year will be a good year for bitcoin?  |
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macsga
Legendary
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Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
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January 04, 2015, 07:55:32 PM |
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Legit TA follows...  |
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NotLambchop
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January 04, 2015, 07:58:54 PM |
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Is this low price just a ploy by those in power to make us all rich?
I have a feeling that it is.
Nah, wrong again. The tanking price is just you getting bitchslapped by Miss Market's invisible hand. |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2210
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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January 04, 2015, 08:00:12 PM |
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macsga
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
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January 04, 2015, 08:00:54 PM |
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Lamby you dirty rat, STILL POSTING? Didn't you buy all of them cheap coins by now?  |
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4116
Merit: 12336
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"
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January 04, 2015, 08:01:22 PM |
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Some of the selling coming with spikes in bitcoin days destroyed  What's the source of that bitcoin days destroyed chart? |
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rebuilder
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1615
Merit: 1000
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January 04, 2015, 08:03:39 PM |
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Serious question:
What's the "fair price" of one bitcoin? and how do you arrive to that conclusion?
Depends on how many people use it and the average dollar value of their purchases. that was the only approximately legit reply so far If there was no speculation (including long-term hoarding), only use for e-payments, customers (buyers of stuff or services) would buy BTC just for payments, and give them to merchants (suppliers) or payment processors, who would then sell those BTC to other customers. Let V be the total volume of such payments expressed in USD/day. Let T be the average time in days between the purchase of some BTC by one customer and its re-purchase by another customer, after going through a merchant or processor. Let N be the total number of coins available, and P the market price of one BTC. Then, the total volume of payments, in BTC/day, is N / T. Therfore, we musthave in we must have P *N / T = V, or P = V * T / N. Today, N = 13.5 M BTC. BitPay currently processes ~1 million USD per day of payments; let's guess that V is ten times that, 10 M USD/day. Let's also guess T = 30 days. (Note, we are assuming that no one is hoarding, so that everybody passes the coins on as soon as pratical.) Then we get P = 10 * 30 / 13.6 = 22 USD. You'd still have the issue of there being some hurdles to overcome before buying BTC to spend it on anything. On one hand, this is a disincentive to use BTC for transactions, on the other it is an incentive to 'hoard', as you put it, if you do prefer to use BTC for some purposes. That aside, I think we can agree any tradeable asset will see some speculation. Looking at your formula, it occurs to me you might add two variables to account for this. One is the growth rate of the BTC price and another is the average speculator's patience - how long they're willing to wait for profits to reach their targets. Of course both are unknown and actually somewhat interlinked, so it's no wonder price discovery is a messy business. |
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ShroomsKit
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January 04, 2015, 08:05:52 PM |
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Its accumulation time. Fresh fiat hits the exchanges tomorrow.
Are we about to go up? |
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