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1761  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2018, 08:37:04 PM
1762  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2018, 06:31:42 PM
Interesting interview with Mike Novograts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWhzlaymNIk&app=desktop

One tidbit I found interesting is when he said that the bubble we just had was akin to the 1996 stock market bubble. The 1999 "internet bubble" is coming and it will be the largest bubble ever.
1763  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2018, 12:01:25 AM


What the hell does this volume decline mean?

-Not even Doanld will risk a wall
-LOL bleedout
-No volume bounce is possible, some anti gravity force I don't know about is out there

It shows indecision as we get to the apex of the big triangle. Something big will happen within the next week or two.
1764  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2018, 10:20:12 PM
You brought two other people into a discussion about Luke.

Well, exactly half that many other people, but who needs accuracy when you have the BTC community on your side?

Quote
Gregory Maxwell
Quote
satoshi's

Which one are you saying you didn't bring up? That subtle appeal to authority of Satoshi?
1765  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2018, 08:42:25 PM
You highlighted one of the key differences between bcashers and bitcoiners. Bcashers follow people. Bitcoiners follow ideas.

Haha. In your fuckin' dreams. As is evidenced by your following white knighting:

Quote
Moving on, then. Luke's a bit nutty, but he's done more for Bitcoin than anyone involved in Bcash:

...


I listed a series of facts that were relevant to the discussion about Luke.

You brought two other people into a discussion about Luke. Mostly just to create an opportunity to trash another (former?) Bitcoin core dev:

Quote
Just Luke doing Luke. One more insane rant. What with the earth at the center of the universe, prepare for a PoW change, kill all the non-xtians, and the like.

One of crypto's more ... umm ... colourful characters, to be sure.

FWIW, Gregory Maxwell also believed that satoshi's design was fundamentally and irredeemably broken. And these are the 'geniuses' that so much of the community choose to follow.  Roll Eyes
1766  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2018, 04:48:24 PM
Any comments on this?



Just Luke doing Luke. One more insane rant. What with the earth at the center of the universe, prepare for a PoW change, kill all the non-xtians, and the like.

One of crypto's more ... umm ... colourful characters, to be sure.

FWIW, Gregory Maxwell also believed that satoshi's design was fundamentally and irredeemably broken. And these are the 'geniuses' that so much of the community choose to follow.  Roll Eyes

You highlighted one of the key differences between bcashers and bitcoiners. Bcashers follow people. Bitcoiners follow ideas.

Moving on, then. Luke's a bit nutty, but he's done more for Bitcoin than anyone involved in Bcash:

  • Created one of the very first mining pools in 2011, and in 2014 released BFG miner, open source freeware to help others operate their Bitcoin miners. Both initiatives contributed significantly to helping Bitcoin stay decentralized.
  • On March 11, 2013, Luke was the first to warn others that the Bitcoin blockchain was splitting and to call for emergency measures.
  • Despite his interest in mining, Luke has always supported individual Bitcoin users, as was illustrated by his work on User Activated Soft Forks to help support SegWit activation.
  • With 321 commits to Bitcoin core, he’s currently ranked by github as 7th most prolific core dev.
  • Even though he’s most known for extensive code review and testing, Luke has contributed significant improvements to Bitcoin, such as figuring out how to deploy SegWit as a soft fork and BIPs 22 & 23.

List taken from https://medium.com/@tuurdemeester/fundraiser-for-luke-dashjr-2a4c0afb96a8
1767  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2018, 04:29:16 PM
Ok guys. DO YOU HAVE YOUR ROCKET PICTURES READY???

Are you feeling okay?
1768  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2018, 02:03:41 AM

Actually, that is a nice link infofront.  The investment and cashing out strategy looks to be fairly similar to mine - except for that strategy seems to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.  My above example uses a similar proportion of cashing out 5% for every 50% price rise.  Further, if you know that in late 2013 Rpietila had a BTCtalk thread on the topic too, and Rpietila was suggesting to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.

In about 2014/2015 I constructed a similar strategy to rpietila; however, I did not want to wait for BTC prices to double before cashing out 10%, so I played around with much smaller variations that are similar in their proportions, and I tend to play around with cashing out 1% for every 10% rise in price and I even play in smaller increments, too while keeping the cashing out proportions approximately the same or sometimes playing around a bit with the proportions if I am in more of a gambling mood.    I believe that there were periods of time that I was cashing out higher proportions of BTC because I already realized that there was a pretty damned high likelihood that I would be using all or part of the cashed out money to buy back in, so I did not mind cashing out a bit more in order to attempt to more or less maintain a 10/1 ratio by accounting for my anticipated buying back.

It is true that some peeps are going to be comfortable to wait for 100% price rises before cashing out, but I think that such expectations can become a bit difficult to put into practice because for some other peeps it is going to be difficult to wait that amount of a BTC price appreciation before cashing out.. especially when peeps are already scared that BTC prices are going to reverse back down.  

My personal approach has been to use such an incremental cashing out strategy to reinvest decent portions of what I had cashed out in order to buy back into BTC with dips.  So far, I have found that even with reinvesting part of the value that I have cashed out, my incremental cashing out and reinvesting strategy tends to generate a decent amount of cashed out fiat (and perhaps my feeling even excessive amounts of fiat) in order for me to feel personally comfortable that I have plenty of fiat to work with to buy more BTC on dips or just to walk away with that fiat in the event that I chose not to reinvest it.   On the other side of the coin, I also feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that I am retaining in my holdings because I will always have a moderate amount and I am never cashing out more than a certain proportion that I had previously established as acceptable for me (which in my full and complete discretion, I can re-think the matter and change those amounts and increments at any time too).

Yeah that website was based on Rpietila's strategy. He came up with that when we nearly hit $1,200, if memory serves me right. He was having a manic episode and was likely too aggressive with his pricing predictions.

Your plan actually makes more sense.
1769  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2018, 12:35:49 AM
but we did go to the moon right?
i mean 20K is not bad right?

No, it wasn't too bad. It allowed for many people to finally gain some form of financial independence. However, minnows like me need it to go to $100000 USD. I long for the day that I can tell my employer good bye. Grin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPrSVkTRb24

No Moon

20K crap

my coins are easily worth over a million each

have to sell when you have to sell though.


When we can collectively devalue fiat dollars as far as we can go, bitcoin will be easily over 1 million.

No-one can stop the btc train

CCMF

Personally, I believe that it is not wise to play "all or nothing" with your bitcoins, even if you have a strong conviction that BTC is worth $1million each.  It is much safer to cash out of your BTC incrementally, and to play it safe, rather than to stick with your convictions that BTC is going to be priced at $1million and perhaps end up either losing too much of your investment, or your psychology or selling on the way down rather than on the way up.  

I think that incremental selling of small amounts of BTC on the way up is better than betting too much on too high.  Let me provide an illustration.

Hypothetically, let's say that you have about 10 BTC that you acquired at the current price at around $7,500 (which would be a $75k investment), and you are generally bullish about the long term prospects of bitcoin while remaining somewhat skittish and skeptical about whether upwards BTC price movements are going to be sustainable.

You can decide whatever formula that you like for cashing out of your BTC in an incremental manner, but hypothetically, if you chose to cash out 5% of your BTC for every 50% that BTC prices go up, then you would be doing pretty good at various price points.

It would play out something like this:

With BTC at $25k you would still have 9.025BTC worth about $228k and $25k in cash.

With BTC at $57k you would still have 8.14BTC worth about $464k and $64k in cash.

With BTC at $85k you would still have 7.7BTC worth about $661k and $97.5k in cash.

With BTC at $128k you would still have 7.35BTC worth about $942k and $144k in cash.

With BTC at $288k you would still have 6.63BTC worth about $1.9million and $307k in cash.

With BTC at $432k you would still have 6.3BTC worth about $2.7million and $444k in cash.

With BTC at $973k you would still have 5.69BTC worth about $5.5million and $914k in cash.

The above sets of numbers assume that you do nothing else with your BTC investment, except for cash out 5% of your BTC value at the various BTC price points of 50% BTC price appreciation each time; however, you could be more active and reinvest some or all of your cashed out money on likely inevitable BTC price dips or you could choose differing increments to lock in your BTC profits... for example taking out 1% for every 10% BTC price increase.  

More frequent profit taking will not decrease the amounts of your profits dramatically while it provides some peace of mind to pull out BTC profits more regularly and sooner (rather than waiting for what might not happen).  You can play around with variations of incrementalism up the BTC price ladder in order to figure out a comfortable increment that works for you on a personal level.. rather than holding out for $1million per BTC.. which might not happen before you are dead (hate to be so morbid, but that is the truth of the matter).

The main point that I am attempting to make is to suggest that each of us should make a plan that is good for ourselves, and tweak our plans in such a way that is good for ourselves and still a reasonable plan that helps us to enjoy our BTC profits on the way UP (which BTC continues to seem to have decent chances of continuing to go UP, and having a plan will help each of us to deal with such UPPITY BTC prices at price points that each of us predetermine and can tweak at our own complete and full discretion).

Edit:  By the way, I understand that each of us might not be able to buy 10BTC at $7,500 or have that kind of BTC investment starting point, but each of us can surely work a similar formula with smaller BTC investment amounts and also continue to invest into BTC in order to attempt to reach our goals (employing dollar cost averaging), without gambling too much of our assets in order to attempt to achieve our goals (or to defeat our purposes by gambling and losing)

That sounds similar to the Bitcoin Savings Plan
1770  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2018, 12:22:46 AM
bitcoin just had a 14.7% difficulty change upwards. that's the biggest since january. there sure is a lot of firepower out there somewhere.

The difficulty increased by 634 billion which is the largest increase in the history of bitcoin. The increase in this period alone is nearly equal to the entire network difficulty 1 year ago.

It probably has something to do with this:

https://adclair.com/gmo-introduced-a-new-miner-that-will-take-the-market-from-bitmane/
https://twitter.com/ynakamura56/status/1003908868114509824


Or this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3359468.20;topicseen (S11's)


Bitcoin has become a war

Yeah, it became a war about 7 years ago.
1771  Other / Off-topic / Re: Wall Observer - Off-Topic Discussion Thread on: June 05, 2018, 03:12:42 PM
I have a Keepkey and a Ledger.
I like the large display of the Keepkey, but they have the worst support. Still doesn't support segwit AFAIK, worst altcoin support, slowest support for bcash and bgold, etc. Would not reccomend.
1772  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2018, 02:41:40 AM
I think the Microsoft github angst is overblown.
1773  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2018, 02:09:32 AM
LINUX TOVALDIS MUST BE ROLDING IN HIS GRAVY!
1774  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2018, 01:44:16 AM
Bitcoin, Futures, and the Ghost of Gold A forecast for bitcoin if it follows the post-futures cycle of gold.
1775  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2018, 08:56:14 PM


I've been saying for a while that this forum needs a thread where nothing is off topic. That way off topic conversation would have a place to go. As it stands now, where do we go to shoot the shit with people who have the same interests as us but don't happen to want to talk specifically about that interest that we all have in common? I made such a thread once and the forum moderators killed it and so people use threads like this instead. /shrug

well you could always try that Farcebook thingie...

I was responding to complaints about there being too much off topic discussion here. I was pointing out that part of the reason is that there is no place for off topic discussion with people from this forum. That doesn't have anything to do with me personally.

Wall Observer Off Topic Thread
Honestly people just like to complain. Any group where individuals have repeat interactions over a prolonged time will develop its own unique culture, warts and all. Attempting to hinder this will just drive people off. Seen it countless times.

Funny you mentioned that. I just watched the Andreas video where we was talking about the gentrification of the internet https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJpoQ19u2_Q
1776  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2018, 08:36:00 PM


I've been saying for a while that this forum needs a thread where nothing is off topic. That way off topic conversation would have a place to go. As it stands now, where do we go to shoot the shit with people who have the same interests as us but don't happen to want to talk specifically about that interest that we all have in common? I made such a thread once and the forum moderators killed it and so people use threads like this instead. /shrug

well you could always try that Farcebook thingie...

I was responding to complaints about there being too much off topic discussion here. I was pointing out that part of the reason is that there is no place for off topic discussion with people from this forum. That doesn't have anything to do with me personally.

Wall Observer Off Topic Thread
1777  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2018, 01:50:38 PM


Overdue poll reset. Looks like the trolls, nazis, anarchists, big blockers, and beartards won.  Roll Eyes
1778  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2018, 10:49:50 PM
JayJuanGee is never going to be able to afford a sex change if this is the best pump and dump you scammers can do.

And all that silver will never appreciate enough to afford you the opportunity to build those gas chambers.
1779  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2018, 10:36:04 PM
I’m early to mid 30’s. Won’t reveal my exact age but yeah, those of us with a half decent number of coins do seem to be over 30.

How much is a decent number of coins? Surely JJG could answer this question.

I'd like to think that the majority of twenty-something year olds out there are learning about finance, investing and saving extra money, buying bitcoin like crazy, etc.

But historical patterns of age-related behavior tell us something different.  Undecided
Of course they are bloody well not. They are being stupid teenagers, well into their 20s, just as I was.

Due to the ease and safety we live in, people are staying kids well past when they should or ever did. The few of us here? Either old enough to have lived in a harder time, or extremely fucking lucky to have experienced bad shit that advanced our brain development.

Probably, I can be an exception to the rule.

What Ibian says makes a lot of sense to me based on my experience. I left my parents' house at 16 against my will, which forced me to mature early. Although the years of my youth were overwhelmingly difficult, in retrospect those experiences positioned me today in a tremendously favorable situation with respect to the majority of people of my generation (I am in the mid-20s).
I started buying bitcoins in 2012, when I was still in university, and although the budget of a university student is small, the extremely cheap prices of that time allowed me to accumulate a "decent" amount of coins  (On the other hand, despite have spoken with many people about bitcoin, there is nobody of my generation that has shown any interest, probably because of what Ibian mentions: they are young, they lack difficult experiences and still many live with their parents).
That's why I'm curious ... how much is a "decent amount" according to the vision of people older than me? According to my perspective, a decent amount is between 10 and 99 coins.


I consider that range a decent amount as well. Of course, it depends what you want to do with your life and your bitcoins. If you want to retire by 30 and have a guaranteed 6-figure income lifestyle, for instance, you'd probably want to look at the upper half of that range.
1780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 03, 2018, 07:31:09 PM
exciting and creepy at the same time...like having a boner you are ashamed of

Going on the average age of posters in this thread, there's no longer such a thing as a boner to be ashamed of any more for most. All of them are a gift.
It's weird to think of myself as young in the post-mid-30s bracket, but I have noticed the same thing.

I’m early to mid 30’s. Won’t reveal my exact age but yeah, those of us with a half decent number of coins do seem to be over 30.

Always the same problem : More boners, less coins. More coins less boners... .

The thing is, more bitcoins will solve almost anything. If you want more boners, bitcoin can take care of that.
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