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1723
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 18, 2018, 01:33:51 AM
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Meh..I disagree completely. I have been divorced now for 10 years after 17 years of a mostly wonderful marriage, I have 3 beautiful children and a solid relationship with my ex that I would not trade for the world. Marriage and life are what you make of it. If you put a negative connotation on something it will most likely be that in reality. Just a thought. Most divorces don't end on friendly terms. Out of curiosity, what did you end up being forced to pay to her and how old were your kids when the divorce happened? Hey here's a suggestion. Instead of reading statistics and asking questions of us on this forum, why don't you start asking questions of yourself? Like, for instance, "how the hell can I become a better person, smarter, healthier, less fearful, more entertaining, more positive and more of the type of person I would be in an ideal world." That's good advice for all of us. |
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1725
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 17, 2018, 01:21:11 AM
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He's known for being an uber-bull, but he hasn't been discredited yet.  TLDR: logarithmic trend isn't broken unless we fall below ~$3,200. Edit: ECB, you're thinking of an old timer. There was a Parabolic Chad or something like that. Parabolic Trav was inspired by him, and took up the mantle when "Chad" disappeared. That is not an unreasonable hypothesis. However, the current downtrend ending right now looks a little over-optimistic: It is very short compared with the overall time spacing. + a few more months would fit a little better. If the chart is to be validated, taking this as a short wave, expect a resuming uptrend before the end of 2018. If the present trend is turning into a long bowl formation, then a low of =/- $3k, and a return to ath by 2021 still keeps the log trend intact. I agree. I think he posted that 2 months ago, so things looked differently. The long crypto winter is still a possibility within the log trend. |
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1728
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 16, 2018, 07:43:41 PM
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Geeze, JJG - you need to look up the definition of 'fungible'. Within the three posts preceding yours, 2/3 of them stated that they were cautious of accepting Segwit transactions until they gained some confidence in it. That is definitively a lack of fungibility. A lack of fungibility is in no way limited to some sort of centralized blacklisting.
If the miners are as trustworthy as you big blockers think, then it shouldn't even be an issue. Might have some relevance. Were it not for DOGE's legacy as a joke coin, and its infinite emission schedule. I'm not a mathematician, but doesn't that make bcash at least 3X more of a joke coin? |
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1729
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2018, 08:34:19 PM
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I'm not following the whole USDT drama, to me it's just like another alt/shitcoin, i.e. if anything, people would try to escape into BTC when it crashes. Of course it can take down some exchanges, but if you keep your BTC on exchanges thats the risk that you're taking
It may be unfashionable to think it, but I don't really believe there is one any more. Even if at one point it was money out of thin air, and there's no proof either way, they've likely earned it back now. It's going to be a forever mystery I reckon that's rolled out every now and then for a quick scare. It may indeed never get cleared out. But they surely played the most sophisticated scam ever : they played the role of central bank in crypto... .  Damn. They must be run by The Jews® then. /s Edit: I'm adding this quote from Eric Meltzer of INBlockchain because its a slow day here: As a jew, I find the existence of basically unseizable money outside of state control massively comforting. To jews, the state is an unpredictable monster that flips out every century or so. Having the ability to leave without leaving everything behind is key.” |
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1731
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 15, 2018, 04:42:22 PM
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I have. Hence my position as a Segwit skeptic.
I don't see exchanges, devs and users complaining how flawed Segwit it, nobody lost money ore saw critical errors. I only see that bullshit in the Bcash camp. Can you provide me technical arguments/proof why Segwit is 'flawed' ore show it at the Github? Yes. Fungibility. Reliance on miners not to revert to 'anyonecanspend' - an incentive for which only increases over time. A new ability for miners to fail to validate all portions of blocks. The list goes on. And that's before starting into the issues with LN. All those devs are interested in youre arguments.
Bullshit. The community has been over them multiple times. The devs consider these issues acceptable risks. I don't. Perhaps you are merely ignorant of them, D^4? No. What does that LN to do with Segwit? I'm not following your train of inquiry here. Trying to convince me that you did your homework while you dont even looked at Segwit features.. I am quite familiar with Segwit features, thankyouverymuch. And its antifeatures as well - of which you seem to be willfully ignorant. Bitcoin isn't fungible anyway. That's why Coinbase closed my account last year for having blacklisted coins. At least LN offers some better privacy. And I think he was referring to the fact that LN pretty much required segwit. |
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1733
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 14, 2018, 08:22:59 PM
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i dont know why people thing things will behave on similar patern / way like in past?
but there are 1000s of possible paterns, so one day someone might hit by accident true prediction
I'll leave you with a few things to ponder: - TA is a study in human psychology.
- Humans are predictable.
- History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.
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1736
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 14, 2018, 05:13:05 PM
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$6000 seems to be established as a fair bargain basement price by both bulls and bears and even miners apparently. We have achieved equilibrium price discovery, not just once, but like 5 times since October of last year, give or take $500. Anything below the bears generally agree is too greedy and the bulls consider a steal. But there is some serious Grade A manipulation going on. FUD is being slung around like monkey poop fresh outta Bill Gates and Warren Buffett's decrepit simian asses. Sometimes it sticks, sending Korean tourists, YouTuber potato heads, and Tweaking Twitterites screaming for the exits. The most damage this FUD has done since (dare I say it?) the "capitulation" on Feb 5 is 5-10% intraday trading. Around $500-600 intraday swings at most. Prior to Feb 5, we were seeing intraday swings as high as 30%. We're talking like $4500 in one day! Many days were well over 10%, equating to at least $1000 at the time. It's a freaking snooze fest in comparison. So far, the FUDsters have tried squirting manipulation FUD, sharting Tether FUD, and are currently honking for clearance while constipated with a big ol' meal of regulation FUD. Mt Gox has been hotboxing us with silent but deadly FUD for months now, but most of our olfactory bulbs have long since burned out. Hacked exchange FUD is the most regular of all, sustained by a healthy diet of shyster/ignoranus FUDfiber(tm). As much as everyone is watching, waiting, hoping for a clear sign from Satoshi himself "THIS IS THE BOTTOM", the truth is the FUDsters have run out of effective FUD. Even Roger Ver himself, the king of bullshit, a giant walking colon, can only shit so much, right? What more can the bears possibly fling at us? Am I missing some super potent 10x epic hangover evacuate the building and whatever you do don't light that match FUD? Something that would truly shake hodlers to their very core that we haven't already seen a dozen times? It's a fucking zoo out there this summer, peeps. Watch out for the monkey poop.  The only effective FUD that I could foresee coming out would be major Tether-related news. For example, the Dept. of Justice announcing criminal charges. Also, please stop posting. I'm going to run out of merit!  |
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1740
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 14, 2018, 02:23:53 AM
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I read through the Tether manipulation paper. IMO it made two convincing points:
#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
- Issuing new USDT
- Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
- Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
- Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
- Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation. But the authors didn't address the alternative possibility of this being a particularly ham-fisted whale who is a close partner of Tether.
#2 Due to end-of-month trading, Tether has probably always been trading with USD deposited with them (fractional-reserve), though at least until March 2017, USDT was probably not complete monopoly money, since they did go to the effort of achieving an end-of-month USD balance.
The authors also tried to argue some other points which I didn't find convincing.
I took the paper's data at face value. There were several points where I thought that they could be cherry-picking data, but it's too difficult to check this sort of thing. Cherry-picking / confirmation bias is especially easy to do with block-chain analysis. And I know for a fact that their method of grouping block-chain transactions is not robust in general, though it probably was sufficient for what they did here.
I've thought for a long time that USDT is almost certainly a scam, and this paper makes me think so even more. Though I was actually a little surprised that this provides evidence (via the end-of-month trading) that USDT ever had any real USD.
The paper estimates that if you removed the USDT issuance events which the paper's authors regard as most likely to be BTC price manipulation, the BTC price would be $4100 as of March 31. But that's based on a whole pile of assumptions; I wouldn't give it much credence. I think that the collapse of USDT will be mostly limited to the obvious direct effects (ie. some exchanges would have major troubles, there'd be many people stuck with worthless USDT, etc.), and there would not somehow be a natural "rollback" of any gains which monopoly-money USDT may have driven. Also, the paper makes clear that all major crypto was affected, often much more than BTC, so this isn't any sort of argument against BTC in particular.
Very interesting paper Theymos. My two points: 1. I won't keep a cent in Bitfinex because there's a chance this will end very badly. 2. SHingTF won't result in a BTC price correction. USDT holders will be the ones paying the price. I don't see how things could go differently from this. --- To anyone thinking BTC price will drop once the USDT shenanigans are exposed: Imagine there's a small planet of fishermen who use shells as currency. There's a limited supply of shells.
One day an astronaut arrives from an advanced planet; he carries a secret device which allows him to create several fake shells.
For some weeks the astronaut buys a lot of local diamonds (unique and also limited in supply). He pays with his synthetised shells but the fishermen don't know they're fake and thus his market demand drives the diamonds prices up.
One day the astronaut returns to his planet with the diamonds and then the fishermen find out all the shells he gave them were fake and have now turned to ash.
Will the price of diamonds go down?
Nope.
The fishermen will still use shells to buy diamonds, and astronaut gone or not, there's still the same amount of shells around and the same amount of diamonds.
What happens next? A few possibilities
1. Other astronauts from other planets will come back with fake shells, but hopefully the fishermen won't be fooled (regulations on the crypto market coming next)
2. A proxy will come back to sell the astronaut's diamonds amd he'd be ready to cash them out at a slightly lower price via OTC trades.
3. Fishermen will lose faith in shell-to-diamond trades and will prefer gemstone-to-gemstone P2P trades (raise of dex vs centralized?)
4. The space police will find the astronaut and force him to refund those he gave fake shells to; he might do that with giving them back diamonds or other gemstones.
5. Etc
If diamonds were a speculative asset like BTC, the price would go down. |
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