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2601  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: what is the most energy efficent gpu out there on: October 22, 2011, 11:06:59 PM
how did you get a board with 8 x16 PCIe slots?

You dont even need that. PCI-E 1x is enough, all you need is a cable to convert from the 1x slot on the motherboard to the physical 16x connector of the card. It will only work at 1x speeds obviously, but PCI-E lane width is not an issue for bitcoin mining.
2602  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 22, 2011, 10:58:34 PM
The speed of light might not be the ultimate limit, they still haven't figured out exactly if that neutrino really moved under the known laws or if somthing unexpected took place.

They didn't account for the relative motion of the satellite.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27260/?ref=rss
okay more OT since the original topic is boring anyway:
That report is HIGHLY dubious. To point out just one thing, AFAIK the opera team did not use GPS satellites for timing as claimed by the author; they used atomic clocks on the ground, and these atomic clocks where synchronized by moving a third atomic clock from one location to the other and back. The question of relativistic effects has been raised on the first press conference, and the researchers were adamant ALL effects had been taken in to account. Considering this was a 3 year experiment with highly unusual results, to assume the entire team forgot something as basic as.. relativity, is just not likely. BTW, it also appears (if the internet is to believed) the author is a crackpot. I cant vouch for that, but writing the report alone and working for a "department of artificial intelligence", I wouldnt take this as fact until its confirmed.
2603  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: what is the most energy efficent gpu out there on: October 22, 2011, 09:05:06 PM
5970 probably, particularly if you use 3 of them on one board.
2604  Economy / Gambling / Re: [BtcOnTilt.com] = [Current Promotion: Free chips for replying!] on: October 22, 2011, 08:51:48 PM
Yeah, I'm afraid it will be for a lot of people, since I don't trust .exe files, unless they are from top trusted companies.

For a poker game, I will settle for nothing less than opensource. Besides, Im on linux.
All I can say, give http://sealswithclubs.org a try Smiley
2605  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 22, 2011, 08:47:15 PM
In the grand scheme of things I'd say if you let the merchants do their thing first, Bitcoin gains traction as a currency, everyone wins. If you let the speculators do their thing first, there might not be anything left.

This.
Services like bitpay may help mitigate the volatility to a large extent, but its definitely not helpful to see BTC value fluctuate more then thermometer in the Siberian spring. It does huge damage to its image, it prevents non dynamic setting  of prices and basically makes a bitcoin economy almost impossible. The only way to use it is buy the bitcoins before your purchase, with the merchant selling them for dollars instantly with bitcoins never remaining in the economy. Thats not entirely useless, but really not what it could be.

Anyway, I dont hate speculators, I do hate stupid speculation, and honestly, this is what we are seeing. There is nothing going on in bitcoin land that warrants the swings we have seen. No real increase in commerce, no real threats or opportunities. Whatever you thought in may bitcoin might achieve over time, all that is still valid today. Why price would go up and down by an order of magnitude makes no sense. This daily buying and selling makes no sense, it is a lottery. Its literally a zero sum game. If you want to speculate, at least take the long view.
2606  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 22, 2011, 08:36:22 PM
if speculators are successful at driving the price of Bitcoin higher, this encourages merchants to jump in

Ahm. No.
2607  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [60 GH/s PPLNS] BitMinter.com *** 150 BTC promotion! * 6-11% MORE BITCOINS *** on: October 22, 2011, 07:44:32 PM
ah, but its still entirely possible you are withholding blocks, and our real luck is 99.9925% Smiley
Then again, with this kind of luck one wouldnt even care Cheesy
2608  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [60 GH/s PPLNS] BitMinter.com *** 150 BTC promotion! * 6-11% MORE BITCOINS *** on: October 22, 2011, 06:52:29 PM
Okay I did the math. The last 15 blocks with less than 10M shares, thats a chance of 0.25% !
If anyone wants to check, I used this in excel:
=BINOMDIST(15,9940017,1/1468195, FALSE)

where the green number is the sum of all shares for the last 15 blocks, and the red number is the difficulty.
2609  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [60 GH/s PPLNS] BitMinter.com *** 150 BTC promotion! * 6-11% MORE BITCOINS *** on: October 22, 2011, 05:59:02 PM
Are we now not officially the most lucky pool like, ever ?
Since the new difficulty, so for over 14 blocks. we have an average of 653K shares per block rather than the 1.468M you'd expect.
My statistics is very rusty, someone else feel free to calculate the odds, but that seems VERY lucky! If you look at the last 25 blocks, its even more insane.

edit: lol, and another one. 4th block this day ! So make that 621,251 over 15 blocks :p
2610  Other / Off-topic / Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? on: October 22, 2011, 05:47:08 PM
hehe, that was my point.

I dont think, unless I misread you. I wasnt being ironic. I know the guys that build the sensor that most of next years hollywood movies will be filmed with. They could literally do it in their garage,...  if you fund the masksets.

Quote
 That being said, I forgot to add P4man to that list of names. =)

Nah, I dont think. Ive been in to bitcoin for like 2 months now, and just running my pc and a rat rig in the basement. What do I know? Deathandtaxes has my vote too though.
2611  Other / Off-topic / Re: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam? on: October 22, 2011, 05:38:30 PM
Its just that a couple of engineers working in a garage lab to design a better board and chip is just as plausable as a guy in Thailand being able to pay a third party in KC, MO to go video tape something..

I somewhat disagree on this. I know what it takes to make world class CMOS image sensors with onchip processing that have ended up anywhere from satellites to professional high speed cinema camera's, and it basically is just 2 or 3 experienced and talented guys with the right tools (which isnt more than a workstation with the right software).

Oh, and money. Lots of money. If this is a full custom design, a mask set for a leading edge process is no small potatoes  and basically out of reach without some serious VC funding, but assuming this is based on a off the shelve FPGA chip, at least the "couple of engineers in a garage" part is more than plausible. If they have boatloads of money, even a full custom chip would be within reach, but I doubt anyone would be able to raise sufficient capital for a bitcoin chip.
2612  Economy / Gambling / Re: [BtcOnTilt.com] = [Current Promotion: Free chips for replying!] on: October 22, 2011, 05:29:11 PM
.exe's ? wow, hadnt even read that. Thats the end of BTContilt for me.
2613  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [60 GH/s PPLNS] BitMinter.com *** 150 BTC promotion! * 6-11% MORE BITCOINS *** on: October 22, 2011, 04:09:57 PM
Just for reference, this is from our local variant of Craig's list:
http://www.2dehands.be/computer-game-consoles/computer-onderdelen/3d-kaarten/ati-5970-msi-104674757.html?qq=5970

295 euro asking price and he allows bidding from 220 euro. Still has 18 months warranty too.
2614  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [60 GH/s PPLNS] BitMinter.com *** 150 BTC promotion! * 6-11% MORE BITCOINS *** on: October 22, 2011, 04:04:54 PM

Thanks for the advice ! No doubt that the 5970 is the superior BTC mining card at the moment. Sadly they want about 750$+ !!! new here in Switzerland. They are really hard to find. 5xxx series is dead here. Only second hand cards are available. I'll keep my eyes open  Wink

Wow $750 I can see why you passed on a 5970.

I didn't realize supply and prices varied that much overseas.  Wonder if I should buy like 10 used 5970 from ebay?  Test/burn em, and then sell them in bitcoins to international users.  The US postal service has pretty cheap international rates.  If you don't mind me asking what do new 6970s go for in Switzerland?

Depending on how cheap I can get 5xxx series gear it might be a win-win for me & international miners.  I am willing to drop $3K to $4K into video cards if there is enough interest.

I dont think second hand cards cost anything like that in Switzerland. I think he meant be the odd shop still selling them new as rarity for those that really need them or online shops that havent updated their site in a few years Smiley. For roughly half that price you can buy used 6990s in Belgium, I kinda doubt Switzerland would be very different.  If anything, prices here seem lower than in the US, judging by going rates on this forum. I buy my stuff substantially cheaper. Interested in importing ? Smiley
2615  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 22, 2011, 03:55:32 PM
you seem totally incapable of admitting that Bitcoin volatility has been only 6 months old in a currency that has only been around since Jan 2009.  

Volatility =! decreasing prices. Perhaps you think a 100x increase in price in mere months was somehow stable?
Bitcoin exchange rates have been extremely volatile since day 1. And yes, thats to be expected from something new and unknown, but as long as it remains this volatile, its going to have a damn hard time gaining any sort of traction aside from gamblers and allowing bitcoin to achieve an exchange rate that is more reflective of its performance as a currency rather than purely the combined panic/hype sentiments and self fulfilling prophecies of gamblers.
2616  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [60 GH/s PPLNS] BitMinter.com *** 150 BTC promotion! * 6-11% MORE BITCOINS *** on: October 22, 2011, 03:44:37 PM
Quote
Only second hand cards are available

Second hand cards FTW!  Seriously, with some luck you can find astonishing good deals. 120 euro for a 5870 which is the hashing equivalent of a 6970 costing almost 3x as much here. OKay, so I wont have much, if any warranty, but I dont except them all to die 3x in 2 years on average.
* P4man knocks on wood Smiley

edit: cool. this forum knows IRC codes Smiley
2617  Other / Archival / Re: delete on: October 22, 2011, 03:36:12 PM
There are so many things that we could do better if only computers were another million times faster.

Actually, Im not so sure. For the past decade I have been waiting for that "killer app" to make use of our computing resources, but it isnt happening. 10 years ago we heard all those promises of voice recognition, AI and what not. Ill see if I can find a funny slide I saw from intel making 10 year predictions, I found it laughable at the time, I think its hilarious now. In reality those problems have proven to be software, not hardware problems, and we havent progressed much since 2000. Basically our PCs are still doing the exact same things they were doing 10 years ago, and a need for faster processing for the most part just isnt there. For the bulk of daily tasks, our current hardware, or even old hardware, is more than fast enough, given efficient software.

Its therefore no surprise to see the current trends are away from highend PCs, towards slower but more mobile, more easy to use and usually, more affordable devices. First the netbook rage, now smartphones, tablets, and upcoming smartbooks. For those tasks these machines are too slow to handle, there is always the cloud. Even gaming is moving to the cloud, look up OnLive or Otoy.

Im willing to bet in 10 years, the majority of us will use computing devices that are barely faster than our current desktops. They might even be slower. They will no doubt be more useful, have better software and connectivity, they will be more portable and tap in to performance remotely when needed. But significantly better raw performance? I doubt it.

Anyway, thats not to say I declare Moore's Law dead yet. It will be used however primarily to obtain better energy efficiency. The same chips that power your iphone  or android phone will end up in huge numbers in datacenters, and those datacenters will do ever more of our number crunching. PCs will become like Unix workstations: rare (and expensive) dinosaurs.
2618  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 22, 2011, 03:08:18 PM
do you think gold is a bad investment given its volatility over the last decade despite it being close to the best investment over that period of time? 

Again you seem utterly unable to see the difference between investing/gambling and the usefulness of a currency as a facilitator for conducting trade. Yes, I think gold is a bad way to conduct trade, no one uses gold to pay for their bread.

Quote
but if he has a profitable USD business and he believes in Bitcoin, why not do it this way?

Why on earth would he risk his profitable business on the moodswings of a bunch of daytraders? Clearly you have never done any actual business.
2619  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [60 GH/s PPLNS] BitMinter.com *** 150 BTC promotion! * 6-11% MORE BITCOINS *** on: October 22, 2011, 02:49:57 PM
If you ever look to expand try to find an "ancient" 5970.  At $500 it is the best value for mining.

It could be if you have to pay for electricity, which I dont (up to a limit). My only concern is MH/Euro, and 5850s and 5870s are tough to beat. Even if you include electricity cost, the difference with a 5970 would be minor if you dont max out your rigs (ie, 3 or 4 cards per system). 5970s I imagine would shine with energy efficiency if you can plug 3 or possibly 4 of them in a single rig, but they are also easily 50-100% more expensive per MH in purchase. That takes a while to earn back.
2620  Economy / Speculation / Re: I am predicting a spike above $3 on: October 22, 2011, 02:44:13 PM
i submit that any merchant who believes in Bitcoin, especially if he has speculative juices in him, accept Bitcoin in payment hand over fist to accumulate as many as possible now w/o expending USD's before the true equilibrium value of Bitcoin is achieved, which IMO is WAY higher than what it is today.  thats my opinion.

Spoken like a true gambler. A merchant has to pay for his stuff in $/EURO/Yen whatever. Gambling on the rise of "foreign" currencies is not what a merchant does, its what a speculator does. A merchant will want to protect himself from currency swings through hedging, even for swings as minor as what have between dollar and euro's etc. The volatility of bitcoin makes that a complete joke.
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