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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 19, 2018, 07:42:03 PM
''previous bear markets'' there was really only 1 previous bear market, bitcoin is too new to look at the past. The space is way too different now than it was back then, more coins, more volume, more exchanges, better exchanges, potential good news, etc etc. There is no reason to think this bear trend will continue for 2 years.

were you around in 2014? "but there's so much good news! this space is nothing like it was in 2011!" new exchanges were launching and the chinese exchanges were flourishing. new merchants were coming online. crowdsales like mastercoin and ethereum were sucking up coin supply. and yet price kept falling.

there were also bear markets in the second half of 2011 and 2012, and also in mid-2013. the bear market you're thinking of was just the longest one, the only multi-year bear market. in my observation, the market moves much slower (in both directions) as time goes on, particularly after 2013. the post-bubble bear markets are likely to be more prolonged now as a result. i'd be happy to be proven wrong on this, but there's not much to go on besides historical price action and cycle analysis.

Because that was the only true bear market, going downwards for a few months cannot be considered a bear market. The MTgox hack at the time made it much worse for the market to recover after already a huge crash. So obviously the situation is far different now.

2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If Bitcoin is Adopted what happen to ilerate population(stone age people) on: September 17, 2018, 02:18:12 PM
Well there are ways to make it easier. Someone who is 20 years old won't immediately know how to use bitcoin even after explaining it to him for a bit. It is not easy to know all the stuff about, wallet, wallet safety, private keys, forks bla bla which is why adoption is hard to achieve.

the same thing that happened to them when the world started turning into digital and everything including money started to have a digital form which is used more than the physical form (eg. electronic banking versus cash). they will be left behind and slowly catch up.

Yeah but electronic banking is still far easier to understand and use than bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. It wasn't hard for older people to start using credit cards, for example, however a bitcoin wallet would be fairly hard. Also considering that you have to be on alert for a lot of things, forks, price, etc etc.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 17, 2018, 02:14:35 PM
You can personally think anything you want, in the end bitcoin has been dropping in price for 10 months straight and people will not care what you personally think when the price has been under 8 thousand for the past 5-6 months. We are in a 10 month bear market and have not seen anything more than 10% price increase for over half a year and that means we are NOT in a bullish market right now. We might be in a dip market where if you purchase right now you will make profit either small or big since its dip anyway but being in a dip market and potential to make profit doesn't mean we are going to be in a bull market.

''we are NOT in a bullish market'' I explained why I'm bullish with facts not feelings. We are in a downtrend currently but downtrends don't last forever. The support level has been held for many times in a row. Looking at it from a bigger perspective, bitcoin is still worth a lot more than previous years. It was barely at 6k on January 2017.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Settled at ~$6400 for now? on: September 17, 2018, 12:04:23 AM
I remember how people were spreading fake news that Amazon was about to accept Bitcoin, lol. Noobs at some point really believed that. Threads were flooded with generic 'this is good news for Bitcoin' posts.

So much excitement but none of these noobs even use Bitcoin as currency. For them it's just good news because they think they can sell at a higher price. Say thank you to mainstream adoption to have these people here.

that's true, but i suppose that's why bitcoin works: greed. the mining incentive, limited supply, metcalfe's law......satoshi knew the economics underlying bitcoin would cause its incredible price rise if it ever caught on. people are (mostly) rational and they see that too by now, so it's only natural that they chase the price.

i remember an old trading buddy of mine used to say: "one day, the world is going to collectively realize there's only 21 million bitcoins, and that time is running out." i'd love to see more people adopt BTC as a currency, but there's no way around the greedy hoarding.

I mean there really isn't any way around it, people wont suddenly start using bitcoin just because it's decentralized and a few other aspects. For most people using bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency to pay for stuff is much harder and riskier than using a credit card/bank/paypal.

I don't think ETF denial will be such a big deal just because most people already expect it to be denied but we will see.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 17, 2018, 12:01:03 AM
I know people have been saying that since forever. This whole year people have been yelling ''bullish'' every day however, memes aside I truly think bitcoin is bullish. Obviously we are in a downtrend but I just find it funny when people lose their minds because bitcoin went from 7400 to 6700 in a day when in december we had $3000+ moves to the upside. No one was complaining back then huh? Technically speaking when you look at the weekly/daily chart you can see we are basically in a descending wedge which is, technically speaking, a bullish indicator. We have been forming weekly lower highs all year, however if the support area around 6000$ holds again this time, we will be in a really good position to actually break the lower highs, we would only need a 1000$~ move to break it for the first time in basically a year.

Not to mention the clear interest, governments/entities/businesses are taking in bitcoin. ETF's, Nasdq, etc etc, even if they aren't approved.

I still think that we've got some more space to go potentially before we finally hit rock bottom in this bear market.

And even if we already have established the bottom at $6k, it's very likely that we're going to see further consolidation at this level for at least several more months until the end of the year, before a recovery actually starts happening.

For one, market sentiment is bearish still, and even though institutional investment is coming in, people generally do not react that positively to bullish news in a bear market as they would in a bull market. For two, previous bear markets have lasted around 1-2 years before recovery, which is a figure we have not come close yet, so I doubt that we could consider BTC bullish atm. But a bull market will come eventually, and accumulation will prove to be extremely profitable in the long run if you do so at this price level.

''previous bear markets'' there was really only 1 previous bear market, bitcoin is too new to look at the past. The space is way too different now than it was back then, more coins, more volume, more exchanges, better exchanges, potential good news, etc etc. There is no reason to think this bear trend will continue for 2 years.
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin safer than banking? on: September 16, 2018, 06:47:12 PM
Exactly. Having complete control over your funds as you do with Bitcoin is obviously a huge advantage over the fiat bank system, but can also be a disadvantage if you are careless with security.

If your credit card gets cloned, or your account gets hacked, chances are your bank will pick up on suspicious activities and lock your account. Even if they don't, you may be able to claim back money that was stolen. If you are careless with your Bitcoin, using weak passwords or brain wallets or something similar, then tough - the funds are gone and there's nothing you can do about it!!!! I think the use of Bitcoin is more convenient than the bank. Bitcoin Transmission Facility Besides, strict security is used in the exchange of bitcoin. Moreover, if you do not have a solid password. Then there is the possibility of damages. Safe in banking than Bitcoin. Because the bank stole your money, you can get it back. If the bank can open up, then your account will be blocked. But in case of Bitcoin, if your password is weak or hacked it will never be returned. So this is as safe as the banks bitcoin.   Wink

It's honestly not better at all. Having control of your money is only as good as that. Money has to be spent and that's where trouble comes in. If you get scammed or you make any mistake, your bitcoins are gone and no one can help you. We are still far away from massive adoption just because of this. I never fear paying with my credit card, with bitcoin, however, it's far riskier and even well known websites can be hacked and you can still lose everything.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 16, 2018, 06:39:06 PM
Bitcoin is not bullinsh or bearish right now it is just constantly moving in the range of $6000 to $7000 for few months
It's all personal in the end. If you look at the longer term picture then the market has definitely a bearish tint to it, the problem however is that people automatically think it's negative while it's part of the market and actually healthy.

The thing with markets is that you can make them look as bullish or as bearish as you like, it all depends on the time frame of the charts you're interested in. It's not worth disagreeing with just because you don't see it as such.

Based on the range you stated it indeed seems like the market has a firm range it's the most comfortable with. There is enough buy support to keep it above $6000 and there is plenty of selling pressure dumping it below $7000 again.

The range has just been tightening since the downtrend started this year. That's why the range is really small and tight right now which is also why I think a bull break will happen. I mean it's definitely easier now than it was 6 months ago where we needed to see 5k+ moves. Right now we only need a 1k move to the upside to break the lower highs.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 15, 2018, 01:17:51 PM
Obviously we are in a downtrend
first of all we are NOT in a downtrend. second of all you just contradicted yourself. we can't be on a downtrend and be bullish at the same time! Cheesy
i believe you are calling the "small drop" a downtrend which is a mistake. a downtrend is a trend not just a drop.

Quote
when you look at the weekly/daily chart you can see we are basically in a descending wedge which is, technically speaking, a bullish indicator.
i am no good when it  comes to patterns but this doesn't seem like a descending wedge to me. for a couple of months now the high and lows are pretty much the same with the bottom at $6k. which makes me to believe we have not yet started to be bullish.

Yes we are. ''A downtrend occurs when the price of an asset moves lower over a period of time. While the price may move intermittently higher or lower, downtrends are characterized by lower peaks and lower troughs over time. ''

And I'm bullish simply because the pattern is getting tighter and tighter so a big break is coming soon.

''for a couple of months now the high and lows are pretty much the same with the bottom at $6k.'' Not really, weekly highs are pretty clear, 12k - 10k - 8.5k - 7.4k
The lows have been pretty much the same but I consider that stronger than if they were lower and lower.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 15, 2018, 01:13:09 PM
if the support area around 6000$ holds again this time, we will be in a really good position to actually break the lower highs, we would only need a 1000$~ move to break it for the first time in basically a year.

If the support will hold. If not we will see 4-5k few days later. Question is - will it hold?

In my opinion there is no chance to it to hold. If market will act normal we we see 6k break in next 2 weeks. Only good news can save BTC.
Support is weaker with every bounce. Why?
1- With second bounce traders were buying on 6k to profit till 12k. Now with resistance close to 6700 it might not be worth to take risk.
2- Those who bought in february, may, with every dip close to 6k are slowly getting into half year into position without any profit. They are slowly getting bored and are looking where to sell
3- Shorters know that braking 5,5-6k will dump market instantly to 4k (stoplosses, overlaveraged longs) - big short from whale is getting more profitable and less risky - it might be easier to earn for big whale shoring at 6k rather than buiying to sell at 6500
4- all willing to buy at 6k range already did. Now we are seeing only low volume speculation


Take a look at silver few years ago and how its end up.



Looks similar to BTC? 27$ support looks as strong as 6000$ for btc



Thats how it end showing bottom at 15$. We need good news to help this support. Otherwise we will see another support at 4-5k what will postopne next pump from december 2018 too december 2019.
A little depressing to read, but what you wrote makes some sense, at least to me. Now for a big news, I am thinking about the ETF, cannot see anything else than that in the short or middle term. Technically the ETF would not be good news for the supporters of the original wallpaper, but it would be good for those looking for short term profits (would definitely have a positive impact on the price if it happens).

''Shorters know that braking 5,5-6k will dump market instantly to 4k'' Not necessarily though. The 6000$ level was broken once on Bitfinex and saw no follow through. Also every time bitcoin approaches 30 on the RSI we see a bounce. At this point the weekly chart looks like an equilibrium pattern with a high, low, lower high and higher low?


We would have to see another lower high and then a bear break, which could happen but we would be close to 30 RSI again.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 14, 2018, 12:21:32 PM
I know people have been saying that since forever. This whole year people have been yelling ''bullish'' every day however, memes aside I truly think bitcoin is bullish. Obviously we are in a downtrend but I just find it funny when people lose their minds because bitcoin went from 7400 to 6700 in a day when in december we had $3000+ moves to the upside. No one was complaining back then huh? Technically speaking when you look at the weekly/daily chart you can see we are basically in a descending wedge which is, technically speaking, a bullish indicator. We have been forming weekly lower highs all year, however if the support area around 6000$ holds again this time, we will be in a really good position to actually break the lower highs, we would only need a 1000$~ move to break it for the first time in basically a year.

Not to mention the clear interest, governments/entities/businesses are taking in bitcoin. ETF's, Nasdq, etc etc, even if they aren't approved.
I read your post earlier and forgot to reply.

I wanted to post this:


So here is what happened since the last down trend.
I am expecting the price of Bitcoin to go down a little more, perhaps down to $6,000. We can see that if the price goes down $200 or $300 more, the RSI still has a "comfortable" margin for a bullish trend again soon. We'll see this in a few weeks time.

That's only short term, though, if we hold the 6000~ level we will be in a pretty ok situation. Again quite close to change the trend and the shorts are still almost at an ATH so the potential for a short squeeze is still there. I'll be cautious though, some small fud could crash or push the market easily right now.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin safer than banking? on: September 10, 2018, 09:29:08 PM
Well, i think the example you give isn't a really good one... Human stupidity is human stupidity wether you're using the traditional banking system or bitcoin.

Exactly. Having complete control over your funds as you do with Bitcoin is obviously a huge advantage over the fiat bank system, but can also be a disadvantage if you are careless with security.

If your credit card gets cloned, or your account gets hacked, chances are your bank will pick up on suspicious activities and lock your account. Even if they don't, you may be able to claim back money that was stolen. If you are careless with your Bitcoin, using weak passwords or brain wallets or something similar, then tough - the funds are gone and there's nothing you can do about it.

Crypto is perfect if you want to be free of the nanny state overseeing all your transactions, but the buck then stops with you - you can't go crying to some higher power when you mess up your security.

Even if you aren't careless with it, many other websites that are not under your control can scam you. You might try to buy something with bitcoin and get scammed, something that wont happen with paypal for example or your bank for that matter, at least you would have certain legal options. What about exchanges? Once you deposit your coins there you could lose everything even if you used the best passwords. Cryptocurrencies in theory are great but in practice not so much.
12  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Need help solving a dispute between friends. on: September 10, 2018, 09:26:13 PM
I think this discussion doesn't belong here if am not mistaken them will have to move it to the appropriate section. Meanwhile, if the deal was a $ deal then, the other person in question has to pay back dollars or ethereum equivalent worth of the said dollars.

It's fine here. Both parties knew what they were facing here. They knew the price of ethereum could go up or down significantly which would make one of them lose money ultimately. If it's pegged to $ then it should be paid in $. 1500$ or that amount worth of Ethereum. I think it's pretty clear.
13  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: SEC decision - A decided plan? on: September 10, 2018, 09:19:41 PM
What bothers me is why everyone is so anxious about the SEC decision. As if the future of bitcoin depends on it, which is crazy.

It's all speculative nonsense. The only reason people badly want to see an ETF approval is because of how they blindly assume it will instantly sky rocket the price.

As soon as the price has gone up after an approval, they will sell the top and then no longer care about ETF's. That's how it always works in this space. People hop from event to event hoping to sell the top. These are the same people that will no loner care about Bitcoin when there isn't a viable way to book significant gains anymore.

I'm really happy that the bear market is freaking out all these get rich quick noobs. The only one's who are comfortable during this bear market are those using Bitcoin as money. Low fees and a near stable price around the $6000 level, what else can you wish for?

That's true but ETF's would still ultimately be a good thing for bitcoin, more adoption is always nice. Obviously most people want to make quick profits but that's how it is. It has to be like this to eventually become something else. Clearly bitcoin is not fit to become a normal currency right now so you might as well speculate with it.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Intraday Analysis: BTC/USD Rejects Bulls, Once Again on: September 10, 2018, 08:42:29 PM
The market has been quashing any bullish momentum for the past 6 months or more now. From here though I believe soon there will be some significant movement one way or another. Each time the breakout is to a lower level. That suggests to me that either the resistance around 5800 will soon fold or that the soon the breakout will succeed because each time it's not being allowed to go quite as high for fear that it won't be able to be brought back down again.

Exactly, this time we are only 1000$ away from a change in the weekly trend. The 5700-6200 are has been a strong support 4 times in a row. In fact the weekly charts are showing a descending wedge which is a bullish indicator. I would only worry if we fall below 5500$ at this point.
15  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: looking for a valid cryptocurrency signals on: September 10, 2018, 08:37:34 PM
You can find experienced traders on youtube but it's hard if you don't know how to search them. Traders on youtube seem to have a '' I'm always right'' complex. There are a few that I consider beneficial though. TheChartGuys I think it's probably the best, you are not going to get signals but an overall view of the market everyday, good enough to make your own signals from it.
16  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is there a required amount before you start trading? on: September 10, 2018, 07:24:13 PM
I would hold instead of doing day trading unless you know what you're doing in and you'll probably need large amounts to make any considerable profit. As for buying bitcoins, I believe that you can buy as little as 2$ in Coinbase.

Thankfully in crypto you don't need very larg amounts of money to make profit compared to stocks where you need at least $1-5k to make any profit at all. Crypto gains blow away the stock market, however crypto losses also blow away the stock market. Clearly the best option is to start trading with virtual money but once you have a solid strategy you can start trading with even 100$
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: What the WHALE-CUMULATORS are saying if they want to buy more Bitcoins on: September 10, 2018, 05:53:07 PM
If these theories are correct then they should be seen as a positive for long term holders. These whalecumulators (like the name, good job) would not be going to such effort to get btc around the $6000 price range only to then sell it around $8000 when they let their stranglehold on the market go and allow things to go upwards. It would not be worthwhile. That means a lot of money is in for the longer term and a price significantly higher than where we are now.

In theory yes, in practice probably not so much. There are definitely whales out there accumulating bitcoins during these times but even if the theory is correct and it is good long term, most people will be gone by the time the next bull run happens (if it even happens) and you don't even know if it's actually true or not, at the end of the day whales can profit from shorting as well so they don't necessarily need the market to go up.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: What the WHALE-CUMULATORS are saying if they want to buy more Bitcoins on: September 10, 2018, 04:47:06 PM
I don't really buy the theory that the market is a marionette whose strings are pulled by the few fingers of the puppeteers...

But I actually do believe that the whale-cumulators are there, and prompting gently, casting out chum over the waters. It's all the little fish that bite that are triggering all the reactions. The news headlines, the Op-Eds from industry leaders (and dare I say, influencers?), the social media and forum sentiment... that self-fulfill the desired outcomes of these guys.

They can't control the market directly, they don't have the resources or coordination required. But they have influence, and since it's mainly sheep populating the space, it's pretty easy to prod and watch the dominos fall.

Something did happen this time though, have you seen those shorts open on Bitfinex a few days before the dump? How can you have so many shorts opening and no movement at all in the market? Really weird stuff, looking more and more like someone doing it knowing a dump was coming, opening shorts and longs at the same time so he basically can't lose.
19  Economy / Speculation / I personally think bitcoin is bullish right now. on: September 10, 2018, 10:12:11 AM
I know people have been saying that since forever. This whole year people have been yelling ''bullish'' every day however, memes aside I truly think bitcoin is bullish. Obviously we are in a downtrend but I just find it funny when people lose their minds because bitcoin went from 7400 to 6700 in a day when in december we had $3000+ moves to the upside. No one was complaining back then huh? Technically speaking when you look at the weekly/daily chart you can see we are basically in a descending wedge which is, technically speaking, a bullish indicator. We have been forming weekly lower highs all year, however if the support area around 6000$ holds again this time, we will be in a really good position to actually break the lower highs, we would only need a 1000$~ move to break it for the first time in basically a year.

Not to mention the clear interest, governments/entities/businesses are taking in bitcoin. ETF's, Nasdq, etc etc, even if they aren't approved.
20  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Can you make money when the market drops? on: September 06, 2018, 09:46:09 PM
You can never make money when the market drops but you can invest a huge amount to take advantage of the current situation in order to earn more profit when the market grows back again.
Indeed, So we should not be discourage when the market is declining because its an opportunity to buy more.

If the market keeps falling dont be sad or think of anything negative towards your investment because the time will come all the coins are going to recover thus just have faith especially if you're aiming for big gains. Be patient and wait for the perfect time to take profit, keep in mind downward fall is not a bad thing if you look in the good side of it.

This is what I call the ''Bitcoin fools theory''. Fools believe that when the price of bitcoin goes down, it's an ''opportunity'' to buy more, they have been saying this since the big drop from 20k. How is your plan working so far? Of course they would still tell people to buy more, ''bitcoin 100k by 2019'' and so on. What happens if bitcoin never recovers? Bitcoin is obviously strong but not absolutely necessary for the cryptocurrency ecosystem, it could eventually become obsolete and other cryptocurrencies could simply take over, I'm not denying that the whole market will grow in the future, bitcoin might not though.
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