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1146
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.
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on: March 28, 2012, 06:59:58 PM
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The dollar index just measures the relative value of dollars to other currencies, the other currencies are all inflating also. Its just a measure of the relative rates of change. Lately its been going up a bit because they are printing Euro's faster then before. But all the currencies in the basket are inflating fiat systems. Gold can only rise against fiat that is being inflated.
It always makes me wonder when peeps think that a rising dollar index means gold should go down, it doesn't. It just means that someone else is printing even faster then the USD.
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1147
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.
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on: March 28, 2012, 04:31:47 PM
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see that huge dump in gold right there?
THIS is why i think it will never exceed the Aug 11 highs when i called the top. it has no guts to stand up to a dump in stocks or a rise in the USD as we're seeing today. and if i'm right that we're entering a cyclical downturn in stocks, its gonna get real ugly fast.
edit: how long are u pm miner bulls gonna take this carnage? getting destroyed.
this thread was started 3/13 Bitcoin 5.40 Gold 1690. today 3/28 Bitcoin 4.76 (down ~12%) Gold 1670 (down ~1%) I fail to see how a GIGANTIC 1% pull back is getting DESTROYED.  |
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1148
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.
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on: March 28, 2012, 04:28:09 PM
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You don't think 620 its all time high, is marching on?
What do you need to think its marching on then? lol
To stay there, not fall sharply afterwards. pulling back from 620 to 615 is falling sharply?? |
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1153
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Economy / Marketplace / Re: Platypus
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on: March 28, 2012, 12:07:26 AM
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I already made this suggestion to my friend, no dice!
He said it might make a good prop to build the habitat around till the real deal could be acquired.
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1155
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Economy / Services / Re: [GLBSE] Feedback wanted: Gigamining, the first 5Mh/s mining bond
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on: March 27, 2012, 11:28:45 PM
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The current difficulty will double in less than 300 days just because the block reward halves + it is likely that it grows naturally as well. Even if the Bitcoin net hash rate just follows Moore's law, we'd expect a doubling in hashrates every 18 months.
You're essentially betting that the network will stall for ~1 year or grow considerably slower than right now for ~1 year with this bond.
If you do the calculation again with doubling of hash rates every 18 months and additional doubling every 4 years (= splitting of block rewards) you get an increase of nearly 2% of hash rate per week (~1.763%) or if you want to have bi-weekly difficulty increases ~3.5% increase of hash rate every 2 weeks. Factor this in your equation and then the ~4.7 bitcents per 2 weeks you'd get at current difficulty (that will soon be over btw. and be even higher in May) about 1.38 BTC _ever_ from this contract.
If you take the difficulty in 200 blocks, you only get a little bit less than 1.3 BTC ever and after one year a bit less than 79 bitcents (after 2 years still not even 1.1 BTC).
Yes, it will not always grow exponentially etc. etc. - still it might be a wise thing to do (especially on such a longterm investment - in bitcoin mining relations even 3 months are kinda long term!) more calculations like mine if someone should think about buying in. Also one could just speculate on earning money by trading just the contracts of course.
I appreciate your feedback. Unfortunately (and you mentioned this) the network is not just going to keep growing and an ever increasing rate. There are competing forces at work including more efficient equipment, miners profit margins and the general mood of miners in the community. When the block reward halves, a good deal of GPU miners will become unprofitable and will stop mining. It is of course a possibility that the price rises sufficiently to keep miners profitable, but I would give this a 5% chance. A much more likely scenario is that the price bounces in a range where we are now and will stay that way after the subsidy halves. Please also note that I believe in my point of view enough to pull the trigger on close to 140Gh of mining power. Sukrim's equations seem to neglect the value of transactions, which at present are negligible, but later are likely to be substantial. |
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1156
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: FPGA crowdsourced "Data Center" Options and Ideas?
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on: March 27, 2012, 09:50:43 PM
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Where in the Rockies? I'm out in Boulder myself. The biggest thing I'd be interest in is a place to co-lo my growing HD 5970s farm.. I'm a lowly apartment dweller and don't have the ability to feed any more juice to my farm. However, I might also be interested in a share of a crowdsourced FPGA farm.
Do you have an electric stove or Dryer? Those outlets are pretty handy if your low on juice in an apt. |
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1157
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Other / Off-topic / Re: I'm nauseous
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on: March 27, 2012, 09:04:43 PM
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I have vertigo, nausea, dizziness atm. If I didn't have to be at work, I"d be sleeping like the dead..
disability you are a danger to yourself and the public to move to and from work Naw I have a working theory. It should pass. I'd explain my theory, but its a bit indelicate.. |
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1158
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.
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on: March 27, 2012, 08:51:48 PM
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ok, i think we have it folks. sorry i was a little early. I still dont believe it... but its probably staring me in the face isnt it... Naw its not staring you in the face. I don't think that tiny lil pullback at the end of the trading day is the beginning of a huge death spiral |
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1159
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.
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on: March 27, 2012, 06:25:43 PM
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Looks kinda like a freight train to me.. Hard to catch a rising knife . The retail investor is still piling in. I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole, but it could easily run up to 7-800 from here. |
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1160
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Other / Off-topic / Re: I'm nauseous
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on: March 27, 2012, 04:35:59 PM
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I have vertigo, nausea, dizziness atm. If I didn't have to be at work, I"d be sleeping like the dead..
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