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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2021, 08:51:19 PM
On the idea that Bitcoin may be adopted in Panama...

The only current use of Bitcoin in Panama is the very expensive Bitcoin ATMs that charge about 10% both ways. All other usage is through a small community of us, mainly Ocean Builders selling to a wide swath of people that want to buy bitcoin for cash (since we can't get a bank account...supposedly due to my involvement).

The one congressman that proposed a Bitcoin law is in the opposing minority party who may just be doing it for political points or as a jab at the administration.

They tried to pass a "Crypto" law at one point, when the minister that was proposing the law finally talked to local Bitcoin users they were all up in arms because the law was shit. The law was fairly standard/cut and paste from other country's laws with no real innovation until the last few paragraphs where it talked about taking 5% of every "international transaction" and giving that money to the elderly. When the minister had a phone conference with local crypto users they kept asking questions about details in the law and after a while the minister had to end the call as it became obvious that he had not read the thing himself.

Had this congressman wanted to talk to the local crypto community I would know about it. And he hasn't.

When we called the cruise ship we purchased the "Satoshi" our government contact (assistant to the president) gave us a lot of push back telling us not to make anything public about it being a "Crypto cruise ship". For all Panama media and anything government facing I had to say the name Satoshi means "knowledge" in Japanese and that the focus of the cruise ship was for digital nomads and startups. We could not mention cryptocurrency.

The idea that they would change their stance from "don't talk about crypto" in December to "let's make Bitcoin legal tender" in June is impossible.

Their reasoning for being so scared of crypto is because of their reputation as a money laundering nation. They're trying to clean up that image and adding Bitcoin, which would make money laundering easier, does not do well for that image. They've been trying to suck up to the big boys internationally. They'll be sold to China before they adopt Bitcoin.

They have elections every 5 years and their last elections were 2 years ago. So the earliest we could see Bitcoin as a currency in Panama would be in at least 3 years when the current party is defeated. Maybe a young party like in El Salvador will take over.



please correct me if I am wrong sir but you are saying using bitcoin over fiat makes it easier to launder fiat? hmmmm
i respectfully disagree and i think chain analytics proves that point..for now
regardless i wish you nothing but the best Elwar for standing tall at the front lines

+1 WOsMerit


dirty Cash in a bag going to clean cash in a bank takes work.

a great way to do it is all you can eat buffets.

chinese buffet reastaurants where hot in usa from 1990 to 2005.

bitcoin can hold dirty btc in a wallet for a decade or more .

sure if ever can be  turned  into clean untraceable btc.

Whether true or not, that is the perception of the presidency. Certainly with the Lightning Network anonymity will be much easier.

As it is, the way I get cash into Panama due to banks not liking me is pretty much what they are fighting. I send BTC to a guy, he gives me cash. There's a whole underground system growing around this due to Panama's lack of support for Bitcoin. Such that it will likely be much more convenient to not touch banks in Panama. The 70% unbanked in Panama are about to be wealthy Bitcoin holders due to banks being scared of dealing with Bitcoin users.


And I always have to throw out my big theory about Panama banks. The banks don't care about having customers since they're just big fronts for money laundering operations by the bank owners. They make it very difficult to get an account and they close your account for no reason at any time. With no customer service.

It's smart, if it weren't for Bitcoin we may have pursued opening a bank just to fund Ocean Builders since we have millions of dollars in Singapore and the US that we can't get into Panama.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2021, 03:09:07 PM
On the idea that Bitcoin may be adopted in Panama...

The only current use of Bitcoin in Panama is the very expensive Bitcoin ATMs that charge about 10% both ways. All other usage is through a small community of us, mainly Ocean Builders selling to a wide swath of people that want to buy bitcoin for cash (since we can't get a bank account...supposedly due to my involvement).

The one congressman that proposed a Bitcoin law is in the opposing minority party who may just be doing it for political points or as a jab at the administration.

They tried to pass a "Crypto" law at one point, when the minister that was proposing the law finally talked to local Bitcoin users they were all up in arms because the law was shit. The law was fairly standard/cut and paste from other country's laws with no real innovation until the last few paragraphs where it talked about taking 5% of every "international transaction" and giving that money to the elderly. When the minister had a phone conference with local crypto users they kept asking questions about details in the law and after a while the minister had to end the call as it became obvious that he had not read the thing himself.

Had this congressman wanted to talk to the local crypto community I would know about it. And he hasn't.

When we called the cruise ship we purchased the "Satoshi" our government contact (assistant to the president) gave us a lot of push back telling us not to make anything public about it being a "Crypto cruise ship". For all Panama media and anything government facing I had to say the name Satoshi means "knowledge" in Japanese and that the focus of the cruise ship was for digital nomads and startups. We could not mention cryptocurrency.

The idea that they would change their stance from "don't talk about crypto" in December to "let's make Bitcoin legal tender" in June is impossible.

Their reasoning for being so scared of crypto is because of their reputation as a money laundering nation. They're trying to clean up that image and adding Bitcoin, which would make money laundering easier, does not do well for that image. They've been trying to suck up to the big boys internationally. They'll be sold to China before they adopt Bitcoin.

They have elections every 5 years and their last elections were 2 years ago. So the earliest we could see Bitcoin as a currency in Panama would be in at least 3 years when the current party is defeated. Maybe a young party like in El Salvador will take over.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2021, 08:13:51 PM


This.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2021, 02:38:54 PM

Good discussion above on key management and the perils of inheritance.  This is where my brain has been this weekend too.

I have not decided what I will do insofar as inheritance.  It's tough.  Because I do like the idea of leaving wealth for my children as an ultimate act of provision as their dad, yet I have seen what unearned wealth does to people.  When you can buy all the heroin you want for your whole, shortened life, and are miserable... then why not?  On the other hand who they are is primarily dependent on their actions, not mine.  I hope I have raised them moderately well...  I certainly have not been perfect.

Inheritance goes along with our primal instinct/desire to secure the future existence of your offspring. This is common throughout most living creatures unless the species can survive without the protection of those that bring them into the world (ie Bacteria).

To that end, it may be best to offer the tools of success rather than just straight wealth. Our basic instincts also desiring that our children also breed and have the ability to support their offspring.

There is also the desire that our children keep certain values that we hold dear as a way of a sort of "immortality" through our offspring. Toward this, it may be better to link inheritance to some sort of achievements which you desire for your child to reach (graduations, career, marriage, children, home ownership, etc.).

I agree that just giving money to kids is dangerous. If you look at most of the super wealthy, the children end up being worthless while the grandchildren usually pick up the traits of the wealthy person. Maybe that's due to the wealthy person never being there for their children because they're too busy becoming wealthy such that the children resent them but then after the wealthy person is finished making money they have more time for their grandchildren which they can teach their life lessons.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2021, 05:04:58 PM
Someone bought the dip.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2021, 03:20:24 PM
Congratulations Bitcoin on implementing Taproot.

Here is a Taproot song to celebrate.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2021, 03:14:53 PM
I'm checking out Sphynx.chat which @jack just tweeted about.

It appears to be a way to chat over LN. I know they were working on that technology but I did not realise that it was implemented.

Does anyone know much about the tech behind it? Is it truly all living on the LN or is it reliant upon the Sphynx server?

It is truly LN native.  But there are "custodial" plans that the Sphinx folks sell.  You can run your own server.  Most of the Lightning node in a box distros offer it.

I am doing HUGE transaction volume based on this tech through my node since i have set my fees to zero when going to the podcastindex node (Adam Curry).

Breez has also implemented some crossover stuff... not the chatting, but the podcast/streaming stuff.

Very cool. Which would mean it's an uncensorable chat system...

I think it's time I set up a Lightning Node. I've just been using custodial stuff but the time has come.

My former maid just asked my wife about Bitcoin since she's from El Salvador. I need to figure out the best way for her to get paid over the LN and send it to her family without being too complicated. Strike is not available here in Panama yet.

I would be delighted to help with this.  And I have some simple suggestions.  Forgive me if you do not want them. Wink

Wallets:
Non-Custodial: Breez, Phoenix
Custodial: Wallet of Satoshi, Bluewallet

The reason to even consider a custodial wallet (for the receiving family) is for simplicity and security.  It ties your account to an email address so a lost phone is not the end of the world.  Breez backs up to google drive (I do not find this acceptable for a "grandma" level user).  Phoenix backs up to a 12 word seed.  Maybe better than Breez, but still not grandma level.  The security tradeoffs are the question here. 

It's too bad strike does not work in Panama yet because it offers several advantages.  It is tax free.  You pay in USD which avoids tax implications, and it is drop dead simple.  But since it is not an option, I would look at coinos.io.  It can be custodial, or you can point it at your own node(s).  You send it some BTC (or L-BTC) and you can just send that out over lightning to whatever wallet they choose.

Anyway, You might already have this all under your belt... but I have done a LOT of work with lightning and I know my way around it by now.

My tolerance for trade offs may also be higher than yours. I would think sending lightning size amounts of money do not need base layer type security guarantees.  I would suggest WoS for the recipient just because there is the most chance they know someone who uses it...

Anyway feel free to reach out if I can help!

I started my deep dive into Lightning Network so I will definitely have questions. I've used WoS already to at least play around with sending LN transactions as a hot wallet.
I just started looking at running a node. I watched a video on Umbrel and it seems pretty well set up. My question would be, would I be able to do some sort of custodial wallet for my friends and family that I want to help out? Like let them point to my server and they have some sort of channel on their phone wallet. In a way that they don't have access to my funds but they can use my node at no cost.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2021, 04:34:39 PM
I'm checking out Sphynx.chat which @jack just tweeted about.

It appears to be a way to chat over LN. I know they were working on that technology but I did not realise that it was implemented.

Does anyone know much about the tech behind it? Is it truly all living on the LN or is it reliant upon the Sphynx server?

It is truly LN native.  But there are "custodial" plans that the Sphinx folks sell.  You can run your own server.  Most of the Lightning node in a box distros offer it.

I am doing HUGE transaction volume based on this tech through my node since i have set my fees to zero when going to the podcastindex node (Adam Curry).

Breez has also implemented some crossover stuff... not the chatting, but the podcast/streaming stuff.

Very cool. Which would mean it's an uncensorable chat system...

I think it's time I set up a Lightning Node. I've just been using custodial stuff but the time has come.

My former maid just asked my wife about Bitcoin since she's from El Salvador. I need to figure out the best way for her to get paid over the LN and send it to her family without being too complicated. Strike is not available here in Panama yet.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2021, 04:10:12 PM
I'm checking out Sphynx.chat which @jack just tweeted about.

It appears to be a way to chat over LN. I know they were working on that technology but I did not realise that it was implemented.

Does anyone know much about the tech behind it? Is it truly all living on the LN or is it reliant upon the Sphynx server?
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2021, 03:48:42 PM

He is such an interesting "hero" in the BTC space.  He is seemingly anti a lot of the right-libertarian/anarchist vibe so strong in the Bitcoin world.  He seems a bonafide techno-leftist, and yet he has very FIRMLY fallen in with the maxi sort of position.


He is apparently an anarcho-communist and has a tattoo which seems to confirm it.

He's not a friend of freedom.

Anarcho communists want decentralisation but while anarcho capitalists throw in the idea that we'll all be cooperatively free market property protecting volunteers, they believe that everyone will be unselfish, freely trading, sharing society with no need for property...because everyone cooperates and stuff.

Both are flawed in their reliance upon people agreeing to the final terms of life with no rulers. But at least they are on the right path with the no rulers part.

If your societal system does not take into account that some people will want to do X while you think they should do Y, then your system does not work for everyone.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2021, 03:40:48 PM
I can see the IMF's position on El Salvador and I agree that it is a higher risk for them.

When they announced that, I thought...why don't we just raise $1 billion among Bitcoin folk and loan El Salvador the money to put toward infrastructure to be paid back in the future.

But if Bitcoin is accepted nationwide and widely used...then...good luck getting any more tax dollars from anyone since they'll just be earning untraceable, anonymous currency. Their tax revenue is going to crash and they won't be able to pay anyone anything.

I do like the idea that they are accepting Bitcoin for residency. That could possibly become their main source of revenue and replace all taxation as people want to join their thriving economy.

Bitcoin ends governments and it makes sense that the IMF would not want to invest in a country that will have a much smaller government in the future.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 10, 2021, 11:01:40 PM
It is rare I will agree with whiney Cobra, but I do, in this case.  His namecoin example is a good one.  I have exactly one other coin that I believe offers something BTC cannot natively.

Just about all the rest of it???  ETH for example.  All that functionality can be built atop BTC.  Will it be?  Or will ETH (or one of it's killers) continue to exist?  Dunno.

I spend about an hour a day at the gym on the elliptical watching development meetings for this very thing.

A protocol to run smart contracts, tokens, DeFi, etc. on the Lightning Network.

I search for it with a search for Bitcoin RGB on Youtube.

I am learning quite a bit. One interesting part of it is single use seals and client side activation.

Just today I saw that they can do a decentralised DNS quite easily on this setup.

It's still in development though so that's why it's just developer meetings at the moment.

No token. No billions to the first movers. Just plain functionality added on top of Bitcoin. The developers plan on being compensated by providing technical support to those that want to implement it and need some help.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 10, 2021, 04:52:39 PM
Anywho, I think my point stands that you do not want to go there with your bitcoin.

Well maybe you (or me for that matter) are not afraid, but I would say the majority should be. Wink

True, I know from my few projects that the vast majority will not be actually doing anything. Much less...moving to El Salvador. They will be sitting back clicking "Like" and hoping that it is successful so that it will affect their home town in a positive way. Or as a means of being able to say "See, it works there!".

Few people actually do anything. And those people will be able to research before going there on how to best protect themselves from the crime.

And like I said...it's great that El Salvador is considered a crime ridden shithole. That's great for the "Before" picture.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2021, 10:06:16 PM
Homicide Rate

Panama 9.67per 100k  people

El Salvador 82.84 per 100k people



The high crime rates are great for a before and after comparisons for Bukele and pre-bitcoin.

"As a result of his Territorial Control Plan, El Salvador's homicide rate fell 52 homicides per 100,000 people in 2018, the highest in the world at the time, to only 3.7 homicides per 100,000 people in January 2020."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayib_Bukele

Which would put it lower than Panama (2018).

The city, Colon, I spoke of is 26.2 murders per 100k.
https://www.newsroompanama.com/news/colon-murder-capital-of-the-isthmus

It will be good to see all of those crime numbers go down as people become prosperous in less risky professions.

15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2021, 05:11:38 PM
Lets not get too exited about going there unless you like being murdered.

*give it ten years for corn to work its magic.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayib_Bukele

Quote
On 20 June 2019, Bukele announced his "Territorial Control Plan" which would increase policing of certain areas of the country in an effort to combat high crime rates and gangs in the country.[34][35] Both the National Civil Police (PNC) and the Armed Forces of El Salvador (FAES) would also be equipped with better firearms, ammunition, and vests as a part of the Territorial Control Plan.[34] As a result of his Territorial Control Plan, El Salvador's homicide rate fell 52 homicides per 100,000 people in 2018, the highest in the world at the time,[36] to only 3.7 homicides per 100,000 people in January 2020.[37]

Bukele founded the International Commission Against Impunity in El Salvador (CICIES) (es) on 6 September 2019.[38] The institution's purpose is to combat a variety of crimes, including drug trafficking, corruption, and white collar crimes.[38] He also established an anti-corruption unit within the National Civil Police which would cooperate directly with CICIES.[38]

... as per wiki El President is something of a populist autocrat who's cleaned the place up considerably in two short years, sacked a whole bench of corrupt supreme court judges and still has >90% approval ratings, just got voted back in on a super majority

... tbh I like a good autocrat, especially if they are competent, straight, honest-shooters and democracy has gone off the rails. Democracy is not perfect and countries come in all cultures, shapes and sizes, take a look at Singapore for a hugely successful autocracy.

Well to be fair the largest percentage of murders since he got in office are the gov rather than straight up criminals but it is going to take years before its safe for a westerner to walk around that country without guards. I give it a good decade and if they stay on the Bitcoin standard they will be a world leader in area in 20 years.

Meh, Panama is also considered "not safe" but I've been here 2 years with no problems.

It does require some vigilance and personal responsibility which a lot of people talk about but don't actually understand.

I lived in between two towns whose main economy is drugs. I didn't bother them, they didn't bother me. I had big dogs in my fenced yard to not make it easy for them and followed some simple rules like...hire a local maid that is trustworthy (you will go through a few). Don't go to the wrong places at night. Don't complain about their super loud music to police.

Here in Panama I lived near Colon which is the murder capital of Panama. I know not to go into that city after dark.

Worst that happened to us as a group was the well known local thief broke into a friend's house and stole his laptop and cell phones. He followed the standard procedure of paying the "middle man" $100 to retrieve his shit. The thief's sister is the DA so it's pointless to rely on the government to do anything about it.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2021, 02:33:36 PM
Here in Panama we're currently trying to arrange a Bitcoin convention to invite all LATAM countries to come and talk about adopting bitcoin as the new currency of Latin America.

My take is that it will take much longer in these countries, including possibly years to wait until electing some better politicians and the bills will be watered down thanks to US pressure but some semblance of what El Salvador has done will be done across all of Central and South America.

In the meantime...I would not be surprised if small countries in other parts of the world start popping up doing the same.

All national leaders are keeping an eye on El Salvador right now with a "let's see how it goes there first" type of interest.

I predict that the US will be the last holdout on this. All of the US will become like Detroit. Start to reconsider if you want to live like that in your future.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 08, 2021, 11:50:01 PM
How do we feel about this then?

BlockFi just gathered up $50 million to lend to bitcoin and ethereum holders who donít want to cash out (yet)

Quote
Currently, BlockFi allows investors to take out a loan as high as $10 million using either bitcoin or ethereum as collateral.

Just like lending on Bitfinex, it's all about how much risk you want to take that the platform itself doesn't go under.

You can make somewhere around 1% or so per year on your BTC lending to shorts. But if Bitfinex goes the way of many of the exchanges, then you lose all of your money.

I was listening to an episode of "What Bitcoin Did" while out running the other day and noted that BlockFi is one of its sponsors (they offer fiat loans to borrowers with btc as collateral and also interest-bearing bitcoin accounts). I thought there had been some discussion on these hallowed pages about BlockFi in the past, or perhaps it was something similar, but a quick search came up with only the above discussion.  Which led me to have a few questions...

1. keeping in mind the obvious mantra of 'not your keys, not your coins' and considering the risk of such DeFi groups going under, I was wondering what WOers think of putting a small percentage of your coins into such an interest bearing account?

2. does Elwar think BlockFi or similar entities are now more reliable now that three years have passed?

3. wtf happened to Rosewater Foundation?

I'm far from convinced but it would be nice to get my coins working for me (in terms of increasing their number) instead of just sitting there looking good (and increasing in fiat terms but not in number). But the thought of not having my coins' keys sends me into a cold sweat....

There has been a more recent discussion about BlockFi.

Saylor proposes that no Bitcoin hodler will ever need to sell. They can just get a loan at 4% annual interest on their bitcoin holdings which is better than inflation while you still have your underlying bitcoins for when you pay off the fiat loan (which is likely worth a lot more).

Makes sense. Still risky though. He says to only take a loan and put it into something that will likely gain in value more than the interest rate.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 08, 2021, 08:15:20 PM
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 08, 2021, 06:47:52 PM
El Salvador to the US:

Have fun staying poor.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 08, 2021, 06:17:55 PM
I seriously hope the price goes down long enough for El Salvador to buy a shitload of bitcoins for their reserve.

Then the price goes back over ATH and all other countries cry that they missed the boat.
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