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281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 07:18:04 PM
Powell's comments today may have played a role in the market.

He acknowledged the obvious inflation, trying to downplay it as temporary but he also saw some recovery in the economy over the next few months.

“If we do see what we believe is likely a transitory increase in inflation, where longer-term inflation expectations are broadly stable, I expect that we will be patient" he said about raising interest rates.


Like it or not, with all of the ETFs and corporations buying bitcoin we are now affected by the overall market a lot more than back in the day when price changes mainly reflected something happening in the Bitcoin world.

Powell is basically saying that they're keeping an eye on inflation. They assume it will go up in the short term but also believe long term it will not get out of control so they will wait on raising interest rates until they see a long term trend in inflationary pressure.

The key that we all should understand is that once the Fed raises interest rates, the everything bubble will pop. It will be the housing crisis and the 2008 market crisis times 100. Will Bitcoin crash with the market or will Bitcoin be seen as a hedge. Hopefully people will flee to bitcoin but who knows. When the market crashed due to lockdowns last March bitcoin crashed but bounced right back. So it's sort of hard to figure that one out.
282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 06:58:07 PM
I wonder if a year of people not going to restaurants or shopping all day has disrupted such a feeling and given people the break they needed to get over their addiction to such things.

Nope, it's getting worse by being locked up inside watching trash TV and spending from home.
Sad really.

Ahh, true. I sometimes forget that people waste their days watching TV. I get it, it's like sleeping all day but not being asleep.

I've been so much busier during lockdowns. Less people interrupting me with "socialising" allowing me to get stuff done.
283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 10:12:05 PM
Strangely enough, about a week before the Thai navy came after us a friend of mine told me that he has had friends killed who were trying to create technology to go into space.

Mainstreaming space will definitely open a can of worms and rock a few boats.

One eye opening thing I was told is...whoever controls Earth's orbit, controls access to space for all humans. And eventually the whole world.
284  Economy / Reputation / Re: TecShare - Farewell my friend. on: March 03, 2021, 10:05:20 PM
I don't have any special way of verifying this, but if true it's very sad. Tecshare and I had some disagreements, but he was definitely a good person, and we were able to have a constructive relationship despite our disagreements. His feedback influenced a lot of the adjustments to the trust system over the years, for example.

One fairly-recent thing which is maybe not widely-known was that in order to help Elwar escape Thailand, TECSHARE was posting false information about Elwar's activities in order to hopefully lead Thai officials on the wrong track. He did what he could to help someone in need!

Rest in peace.

I remember someone telling me that TECHSHARE let everyone know that I was in Vietnam. I was a bit confused at the time but was happy for people to think that as at the time I was on a boat to Singapore so misdirection was certainly welcomed.

Unfortunately I did not get the chance to thank him but I certainly did appreciate it. He definitely had my back.
285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 08:41:54 PM
Get it into orbit and use it to tether (and as material for) a space elevator.

Now, space elevators are another topic. We don't have the materials right now but fun stuff like if one collapsed, it would wrap around the world a couple of times (IIRC).

This is stuff we're working on...it was the whole point of our seastead in Thailand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop


It would need to be done in the ocean.

Strangely enough, about a week before the Thai navy came after us a friend of mine told me that he has had friends killed who were trying to create technology to go into space.
286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 08:34:10 PM
I'm selling almost every day (DCA) to pay for our lake.

We started with regular cars, then lambos, now ranches and lakes...soon whole building blocks and/or villages, then islands, maybe asteroids, planets, stars, etc
  Grin

For me, Bitcoin has "bought" me the most important thing in the universe: time, and the peace of mind that I can survive and do anything I ever wanted to do, without having to work for it. My life is already full, no need for Lambos or lakes. I own two wonderful houses, one in the city, another in the countryside, right next to a beautiful beach. My car is 6 years old and in pristine condition. Frankly, sometimes I'm trying to think of what to buy, but I'm out of ideas...

tl;dr: The most important thing that Bitcoin can buy, is TIME! The time one needs to do the things that really matter (and these are almost never material, although most people have been conditioned/brainwashed to think they are).

Thank you, Bitcoin!


coming from a very poor family and I never had any meaningful amount of money way into my 30ies. then bitcoin happened. and one day i was - of all places -strolling through the aisles of a giant home depot store when it dawned on me that prices of things lost their meaning and that i could fill up my cart with what ever i wanted - but -unlike a kids dream in a toys`r us store- the magic was gone. i bought nothing.

I had this same thing happen. When I first started hanging out with my wife, Nadia, she loved going to the mall. We would walk and walk and all I could think was what a waste of time it was but it seemed to make her happy so whatever. I told her that they could give me the whole mall and tell me that I can take home anything I wanted. There isn't one thing I could think of that I would want in that mall.

I am certain that there are a lot of people out there that would fear such a feeling spreading throughout the populace. They need us to desire crappy material items.

I wonder if a year of people not going to restaurants or shopping all day has disrupted such a feeling and given people the break they needed to get over their addiction to such things.
287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 05:55:20 PM
Just watched the RGB demo call. I am still confused as to how it works and I have delved deep into colored coins for several years. I guess that wasn't the point of the demo, explaining the underlying mechanisms (which I have perused but still don't quite get it).

They showed the app on testnet creating an asset then transferring an asset. They said it will be able to work over the liquid network, Lightning Network as well as the regular bitcoin blockchain. All anonymously such that nobody can tell what has been transferred by looking at the transaction.

One big sneak peak they gave was that future development will include staking and DEX with Bitcoin. Defi is coming to Bitcoin. They said it's about a year out.

Their app is still in alpha stage, coming out on iPhone soon.
288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 02:29:37 AM
Elawar !!! Plz tell that "Huan" n00b that this is happening now. Smiley


The truth is, and you can seriously go back and confirm this with the price, every time I have ever said anything bearish...if you had purchased bitcoin at that time and sold after the price rose 10% or so, you'd beat all TA ever provided on this forum.

For every "thehorror.gif" I posted...we were usually bouncing along the bottom.


I panic post instead of panic selling.
289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 02:08:02 AM


Bob suspected you of being some kind of trillionaire having more then a thousand coins. Cheesy Cheesy


I lost all of my bitcoins on the seastead. Saved up a few satoshis then those got scrapped with my cruise ship.

I'm waiting for that Biden check to hopefully have some food when that comes around.

No money for the wealth tax that's coming...unfortunately (because I love taxes).
290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 01:55:00 AM
Just a quick FYI, RGB is testing asset transfers on Bitcoin with Client Validated Data.

As I understand it, Client Validated Data allows for things such as smart contracts and NFTs in Bitcoin. I need to delve into it more but this supposedly can be done via the Lightning Network. By validating on the client side, it does not require the data to be kept on the blockchain.

I'm going to try to get on the zoom call tomorrow where they go over some wallet implementations. But I think this could be something revolutionary.

The reason I am interested in it is I believe we could have a stablecoin asset on the lightning network utilizing the Bitcoin blockchain such that all of the world's currencies can be upgraded to work on the Lightning Network under a single protocol. Which would eventually lead to people just leaving their nation's currencies behind as they realise that it's better to just keep your money in bitcoin. Which will now have smart contract capabilities allowing for decentralized exchanges of those currencies.

Wether this cycle has played itself out or not, I believe the next cycle will be the last one...nobody will care about the price. It will be a race to not be the last one holding worthless legacy fiat.

^ Now look at that... There is a man with a sold account and with a political agenda in his investments. Smiley Cheesy Cheesy

I would totally sell my account if it came to that. I checked how much my account was worth once and I figured if things get too bad I at least have that to fall back on. Better than going back to an 8 to 5 job. I'd sell my signature line but I don't post enough in the rest of the forum and would not want to waste my days posting just to make a few bucks a day.
291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 01:25:11 AM
Just a quick FYI, RGB is testing asset transfers on Bitcoin with Client Validated Data.

As I understand it, Client Validated Data allows for things such as smart contracts and NFTs in Bitcoin. I need to delve into it more but this supposedly can be done via the Lightning Network. By validating on the client side, it does not require the data to be kept on the blockchain.

I'm going to try to get on the zoom call tomorrow where they go over some wallet implementations. But I think this could be something revolutionary.

The reason I am interested in it is I believe we could have a stablecoin asset on the lightning network utilizing the Bitcoin blockchain such that all of the world's currencies can be upgraded to work on the Lightning Network under a single protocol. Which would eventually lead to people just leaving their nation's currencies behind as they realise that it's better to just keep your money in bitcoin. Which will now have smart contract capabilities allowing for decentralized exchanges of those currencies.

Wether this cycle has played itself out or not, I believe the next cycle will be the last one...nobody will care about the price. It will be a race to not be the last one holding worthless legacy fiat.
292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2021, 12:30:17 AM
I smell an ant pump...

I smell $50k...  Grin


You get $50k!

and you get $50k!

and you get $50k!


Edit: anditsgone.gif
293  Economy / Reputation / Re: TecShare - Farewell my friend. on: March 02, 2021, 12:11:33 AM
I certainly did not know TecShare or interact too much on the forum but he is an old school member here since May 2011 so he has been part of this community for a long time. The timing of his entry along with his posts about the Federal Reserve would lead me to believe he was also part of the Ron Paul community.

From his posts he came on here seeing the opportunity for business and he dedicated much time toward that as well as to his reputation as a trader in many different things, contributing to the early bitcoin economy in his own way.

He was certainly open about his politics and stuck to his guns, certainly in a passionate way. I know he was in a few threads I participated in the Politics and Society forum and we were usually on similar sides of the argument, though our approaches were certainly a bit different. It appeared that his politics were a bit more welcome in the earlier days than more recent years.

From one og to another, RIP TecShare.
294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 10:52:44 PM
Elwar, say it aint so?

... sold out bulls have made the worst trolls.

... hoping he hasn't go full fiat ... never go full fiat/retarded



... fiat is a mental illness, a brain cage to enslave you to the beastly system

No man, I found this great new token that's going to be the next Bitcoin but shinier. It will have longer addresses and there will be MORE coins. Only 90% pre-mine with trillions of coins remaining.

This is going to be HUGE!

Merdecoin...it's the future!
295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Attn Elwar on: March 01, 2021, 10:20:28 PM
Elwar, many are giddy about recent ATH, etc. Can you repeat your story about 'local bitcoins gone bad'?

You mean when someone stole 85 bitcoins from me?

They didn't actually steal 85 BTC from me, I sold 30k euro worth of bitcoins to someone. It was at a McDonalds in Germany where I'd been selling bitcoins to get cash to live on. I got tired of a few hundred euros here and there, wasting my time. So I figured I'd be there for a few years and one guy wanted a lot of BTC so I told him I'd do 30k.

I'd traded with the guy before, this time he sent his "associate" to drop off the money. I had this bad feeling going...like how in every movie where it's the "last score" something always goes horribly wrong.

As I walked into the McDonalds there was some young guy eyeballing me. I went inside and it was packed. The middle of winter so everyone had their coats on. I sat down with the guy and we got to business. I counted the money, checked that it wasn't counterfeit, put it in my pocket. While I was doing this some guy kept walking past me back and forth which was odd because there were no seats for him where he was passing. At that point I just wanted to get out of there quickly. I released the bitcoins to the guy and got up making sure to keep my hand in the pocket where the money was.

The guy stood up and asked me to hold his briefcase while he put on his jacket. I held it with both hands while he put it on. Then I put my hand back in my pocket and walked immediately across the street straight to the police station to make sure I didn't get jumped. Next to the police station was where my car was parked so I hurried to my car, took an alternative route home and finally made it to my apartment. When I took the money out to count it again I noticed that they all had big letters across them "VOID". Fake bills that you would buy on a tour of the currency printer. All of them.

I went back to the McDonalds asking for the video footage to see if it was worth going to the police. The guy at McDonalds watched the footage and told me it was too grainy to see anyone's face but he saw when the guy picked my pocket when I stood up and the guy was putting on his jacket. He switched out envelopes.


Come to find out it was an Eastern European mafia type gang. The guy standing outside probably would've jumped me had I made it out. I put the word out on the localbitcoins forums and about 2 months later I was contacted by someone who said the same thing happened to him in Amsterdam but he jumped the guy when he tried to do the same thing and everyone scrambled. He said he had the guy pinned, he was whining..."just let me go please...". He waited for the police to come and take him away.

And thanks to me letting people on localbitcoins know about what had happened to me, I got thrown into a Europe wide sting operation that happened all on the same day where they went after people from the "dark web" looking for drugs and criminal activity. The German police showed up at my apartment thinking I was a criminal (part of the reason why I didn't report the theft in the first place...what do you know, they proved me right). They took all of my money, computers, and cell phone. They didn't find anything illegal of course, selling bitcoin personally was completely legal. I had a clearance at work, they tried to get me fired but my bosses knew everything, I was always open about how I got cash. From then on I stopped using cash altogether and went 100% bitcoin. They finally had to return my, now dated, electronics to me a year later. As well as my money. They had to admit that there was no evidence of me committing a crime. At least Germany returned all of my shit when they realised I didn't do anything wrong...unlike a certain other government.

Let this be a lesson...don't keep your private keys solely on stuff in your home.
296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 02:22:04 PM
Now, now, be nice to Elwar.


Always nice to the brother.... but we must not agree on everything, I didn’t said something wrong did I?

Just said he maybe bumped his head in the cabins of the crew, it’s a bit lower there etc so might happened, from there he maybe saying ATH in the start of a bull run etc

Btw it’s j/k

But also calling 2 times ATH at the two tops....  Undecided

I'm mainly just preparing myself for it emotionally.

I lose millions but hey...at least I was right on an Internet forum...
297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 12:41:34 AM

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1365992969413746690

Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, this guy. Seriously. He's literally trying to now equate participants in Bitcoin with Communism or Socialism.

If I had a twitter account, I would seriously rip him a new one.  Angry

Why people even give a shit what he says or thinks is beyond me.

Pisses me off that people push the lie that libertarianism is utopian. So double fuck this guy.

WTF is Bitcoinism anyway?

Here's a good synopsis of what Utopia was.

https://lbry.tv/@Seasteading:8/seasteading-utopian-fantasy:9
298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 10:27:25 PM
Having lived in Thailand all I can say is:

bum gun
299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 05:51:03 PM
I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

you became a real bear lately  Grin  this is the second time you call the top of this cycle.

Yep, I was wrong last time too.

Happily.

Cautiously pessimistic.
300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2021, 05:50:03 PM
I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

That would be the low BELOW prior high, which never happened before, but there is always a first.


As a PlanB zealot, I tend to rule out 15K too.

Stock to flow price according to  digitalik.net/BTC is  34,488. As market price has never been below 50% of this value, I am ready to call 17K the bottom.
Bear in mind that S2F model is rapidly growing by now, so the floor is rising fast too.

If market get below lower, S2F model breaks, and nobody know what happens then.


Ya, I threw $15k out there as just eyeballing the charts.

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