qxzn
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April 28, 2013, 08:39:39 PM |
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bitpop
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April 29, 2013, 03:03:14 AM |
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Condolences
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dooglus
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April 29, 2013, 04:26:24 AM |
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I hadn't seen that xkcd before. I've fixed the graph script so future graphs will show the date in that format.
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dooglus
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April 29, 2013, 07:19:23 PM |
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Total of 28 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-29 11:55am (up to block 233796)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 135947 | 3 (0.00002) | 133800 | 2144 | 1715.06 | 3843.05 | 159.28 | -2127.99 | 224.077 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12325 | 0 (0.00000) | 11759 | 566 | 169.04 | 0.43 | 22.84 | 168.61 | 0.257 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 12898 | 2 (0.00016) | 12400 | 496 | 183.38 | 320.24 | 17.49 | -136.86 | 174.630 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25087 | 5 (0.00020) | 24556 | 526 | 601.30 | 433.86 | 10.17 | 167.44 | 72.154 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24371 | 5 (0.00021) | 23884 | 482 | 865.55 | 606.56 | 22.18 | 258.99 | 70.078 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30145 | 13 (0.00044) | 29693 | 439 | 1659.48 | 1830.92 | 1.51 | -171.43 | 110.330 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30652 | 35 (0.00116) | 30097 | 520 | 2188.10 | 1740.40 | 116.98 | 447.70 | 79.539 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22038 | 40 (0.00186) | 21486 | 512 | 2417.09 | 1573.09 | 48.56 | 844.00 | 65.082 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27144 | 116 (0.00434) | 26609 | 419 | 6071.12 | 8661.99 | 13.29 | -2590.87 | 142.675 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39467 | 311 (0.00804) | 38376 | 780 | 8451.91 | 6947.98 | 10.30 | 1503.92 | 82.206 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 144884 | 2224 (0.01542) | 142027 | 633 | 42880.46 | 37192.75 | 2.51 | 5687.70 | 86.736 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26628 | 605 (0.02306) | 25631 | 392 | 7996.99 | 8583.36 | 15.21 | -586.36 | 107.332 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 94186 | 2884 (0.03076) | 90878 | 424 | 43472.34 | 38750.25 | 9.46 | 4722.08 | 89.138 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31640 | 1439 (0.04622) | 29697 | 504 | 9872.71 | 10668.73 | 25.45 | -796.01 | 108.063 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39145 | 2400 (0.06197) | 36328 | 417 | 7865.12 | 7659.77 | 31.44 | 205.34 | 97.389 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 55524 | 5043 (0.09171) | 49943 | 538 | 17126.53 | 18666.07 | 7.62 | -1539.54 | 108.989 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 209236 | 25601 (0.12271) | 183026 | 609 | 100705.20 | 99956.90 | 100.87 | 748.29 | 99.257 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 122211 | 22302 (0.18346) | 99259 | 650 | 179818.24 | 181388.16 | 3315.30 | -1569.92 | 100.873 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 293199 | 71340 (0.24393) | 221126 | 733 | 379174.46 | 365438.94 | 2323.04 | 13735.51 | 96.378 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 287978 | 105569 (0.36746) | 181727 | 682 | 595578.46 | 586800.57 | 1013.64 | 8777.89 | 98.526 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1222555 | 595747 (0.48807) | 624875 | 1933 | 917056.60 | 898747.52 | 2926.06 | 18309.07 | 98.003 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 699232 | 348527 (0.49960) | 349087 | 1618 | 697613.12 | 679740.81 | 6523.09 | 17872.31 | 97.438 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 405582 | 297500 (0.73512) | 107198 | 884 | 311680.59 | 304256.77 | 6172.86 | 7423.81 | 97.618 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 92698 | 73083 (0.79410) | 18950 | 665 | 65765.00 | 64208.58 | 1188.05 | 1556.42 | 97.633 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 86351 | 73399 (0.85747) | 12200 | 752 | 83489.55 | 82721.38 | 401.18 | 768.17 | 99.080 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 135932 | 123715 (0.91595) | 11353 | 864 | 77710.55 | 76563.86 | 1.85 | 1146.68 | 98.524 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22455 | 20306 (0.97860) | 444 | 1705 | 25064.43 | 24643.79 | 241.11 | 420.64 | 98.322 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4206500 | 1716794 | 2469113 | 20593 | 844859.32 | 830150.92 | 315.26 | 14708.40 | 98.259 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123010 | 55420 | 67296 | 294 | 2742333.19 | 2681795.95 | 24406.21 | 60537.24 | 97.792 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4329510 | 1772214 | 2536409 | 20887 | 3587192.52 | 3511946.87 | 24721.47 | 75245.64 | 97.902 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 75245.64623690 BTC (2.098%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3558.15557500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 71687.49066190 BTC (1.998%) Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC Final SD Profit: 71687.49066190 BTC (1.998%) Profit This Month: 3844.56409428 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 14059370 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7930353 (56.4%) Blockchain MB: 6146.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 3274.4 (53.3%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJrm2iNF.png&t=665&c=S58MPXyUQ0k3HA) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FGZ6Jb3s.png&t=665&c=QB1HT8d1uZ4N_w)
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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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April 29, 2013, 07:49:23 PM |
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Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..
And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.
Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news. I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling. If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.
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thoughtfan
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April 29, 2013, 10:13:13 PM |
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Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..
And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.
Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news. I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling. If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away. Repeat something enough times RS and you come to believe it to be true. Search hard enough in the forum and I'm sure you'll find more excuses to express your gloom and doom about what you're so convinced is going to happen to bitcoin in the weeks ahead ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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April 30, 2013, 04:03:58 AM |
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Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..
And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.
Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news. I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling. If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away. Repeat something enough times RS and you come to believe it to be true. Search hard enough in the forum and I'm sure you'll find more excuses to express your gloom and doom about what you're so convinced is going to happen to bitcoin in the weeks ahead ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) I'm being persistent But wouldn't that be a good explanation why sdice's expected profit went down so much? I hope so, because if this continues, the value of sdice will be cut in half.
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dooglus
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May 01, 2013, 01:00:33 AM |
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Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month: 2013/03/31 67842.92656762 2013/04/30 71603.40834462 3760.48177700 Total of 64 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-30 05:55pm (up to block 233980)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 136571 | 3 (0.00002) | 134408 | 2160 | 1723.80 | 3843.10 | 159.33 | -2119.29 | 222.942 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12450 | 0 (0.00000) | 11884 | 566 | 170.41 | 0.44 | 22.84 | 169.97 | 0.259 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 13121 | 2 (0.00016) | 12623 | 496 | 185.77 | 320.26 | 17.49 | -134.48 | 172.390 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25122 | 5 (0.00020) | 24590 | 527 | 601.97 | 433.86 | 13.37 | 168.11 | 72.073 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24399 | 5 (0.00021) | 23911 | 483 | 866.05 | 606.56 | 22.19 | 259.49 | 70.037 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30215 | 13 (0.00044) | 29763 | 439 | 1660.55 | 1830.92 | 1.51 | -170.36 | 110.260 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30707 | 35 (0.00116) | 30152 | 520 | 2188.99 | 1740.41 | 116.98 | 448.58 | 79.507 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22076 | 40 (0.00186) | 21522 | 514 | 2417.67 | 1573.09 | 48.56 | 844.57 | 65.067 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27187 | 116 (0.00433) | 26652 | 419 | 6071.90 | 8661.99 | 13.29 | -2590.08 | 142.657 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39549 | 311 (0.00802) | 38456 | 782 | 8454.50 | 6948.00 | 10.30 | 1506.50 | 82.181 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 146137 | 2252 (0.01548) | 143247 | 638 | 42922.79 | 37261.53 | 2.52 | 5661.26 | 86.811 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26692 | 608 (0.02312) | 25692 | 392 | 7998.17 | 8588.48 | 15.21 | -590.31 | 107.381 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 94689 | 2909 (0.03086) | 91355 | 425 | 43480.85 | 38759.82 | 9.47 | 4721.02 | 89.142 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31702 | 1443 (0.04625) | 29754 | 505 | 9874.63 | 10669.70 | 25.45 | -795.06 | 108.052 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39269 | 2402 (0.06182) | 36450 | 417 | 7873.65 | 7660.29 | 31.44 | 213.35 | 97.290 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 55881 | 5066 (0.09154) | 50276 | 539 | 17139.81 | 18677.12 | 7.63 | -1537.31 | 108.969 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 210584 | 25758 (0.12268) | 184211 | 615 | 100776.26 | 100026.28 | 100.93 | 749.97 | 99.256 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 122497 | 22350 (0.18343) | 99496 | 651 | 179834.89 | 181408.21 | 3315.31 | -1573.32 | 100.875 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 294410 | 71648 (0.24397) | 222026 | 736 | 379419.76 | 365751.96 | 2323.05 | 13667.79 | 96.398 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 288547 | 105765 (0.36741) | 182098 | 684 | 595675.46 | 586888.24 | 1013.65 | 8787.22 | 98.525 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1225527 | 597180 (0.48806) | 626410 | 1937 | 917499.89 | 899242.98 | 2926.09 | 18256.90 | 98.010 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 701423 | 349622 (0.49961) | 350170 | 1631 | 698123.78 | 680234.03 | 6523.13 | 17889.74 | 97.437 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 406771 | 298351 (0.73508) | 107527 | 893 | 311860.56 | 304443.00 | 6172.87 | 7417.56 | 97.622 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 93093 | 73404 (0.79418) | 19023 | 666 | 65867.01 | 64314.01 | 1188.05 | 1553.00 | 97.642 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 87069 | 74016 (0.85752) | 12298 | 755 | 83567.95 | 82794.79 | 401.19 | 773.16 | 99.075 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 136385 | 124123 (0.91594) | 11391 | 871 | 77821.80 | 76676.01 | 1.88 | 1145.78 | 98.528 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22563 | 20398 (0.97856) | 447 | 1718 | 25077.31 | 24656.14 | 241.14 | 421.17 | 98.321 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4221577 | 1722372 | 2478520 | 20685 | 846382.85 | 831659.97 | 318.78 | 14722.87 | 98.260 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123059 | 55453 | 67312 | 294 | 2742773.49 | 2682351.38 | 24406.21 | 60422.11 | 97.797 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4344636 | 1777825 | 2545832 | 20979 | 3589156.34 | 3514011.35 | 24724.99 | 75144.99 | 97.906 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 75144.99539272 BTC (2.094%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3574.02737500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 71570.96801772 BTC (1.994%) Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC Final SD Profit: 71570.96801772 BTC (1.994%) Profit This Month: -32.44032690 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 14120174 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7959294 (56.4%) Blockchain MB: 6178.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 3286.1 (53.2%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FcB2rw7Q.png&t=665&c=0t3XBa0rT9m3jg) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtepbMKo.png&t=665&c=lx5_XFbenK_uYA)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Dice
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May 01, 2013, 08:13:33 AM |
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Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month: 2013/03/31 67842.92656762 2013/04/30 71603.40834462 3760.48177700 Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months? Regards
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thoughtfan
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May 01, 2013, 01:08:40 PM |
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Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month: 2013/03/31 67842.92656762 2013/04/30 71603.40834462 3760.48177700 Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months? Regards They're further back on this thread since dooglus started doing them. They shouldn't be too hard to locate but if you are going to do them would you mind posting the rest of us the list of the links to the relevant posts please?
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jking
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May 02, 2013, 01:58:11 AM |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
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furuknap
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May 02, 2013, 01:59:33 AM |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate. .b
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jking
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May 02, 2013, 02:27:19 AM |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate. .b That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size.
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.
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May 02, 2013, 02:32:57 AM |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate. .b That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size. This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.
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dooglus
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May 02, 2013, 03:52:52 AM |
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Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?
Yes: 2012/04/30 -8.34303562 +1977.70657444 2012/05/31 1969.36353882 -2486.30832957 2012/06/30 -516.94479075 +2526.33884886 2012/07/31 2009.39405811 +7745.52421697 2012/08/31 9754.91827508 +2213.71305627 2012/09/30 11968.63133135 -1995.05289803 2012/10/31 9973.57843332 +6176.88060145 2012/11/30 16150.45903477 +17171.39821715 2012/12/31 33321.85725192 +20021.26392603 2013/01/31 53343.12117795 +13333.24627993 2013/02/28 66676.36745788 +1166.55910974 2013/03/31 67842.92656762 +3760.48177700 2013/04/30 71603.40834462
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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RationalSpeculator
Sr. Member
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Offline
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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May 02, 2013, 04:58:24 AM |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate. .b That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size. Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up. How have you been able to discover this? Can that be seen on dooglus charts? Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts?
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jking
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 34
Merit: 0
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May 02, 2013, 05:14:41 AM |
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Just a quick question.
I noticed that SatoshiDice # of bets declined dramatically in the middle of March from around 20k-25k to 15k. Since then its been hovering 15k +/- 5k Can anyone tell me why this happened?
One reason may be that the price of BTC rose to much higher levels during that time. What people are willing to bet may be the same, but the amount of BTC that represents is much smaller with a high exchange rate. .b That could be. But the change in # of bets is discontinuous and sudden, not gradual. It seems odd to me that on March 15-17, all bettors suddenly decided to reduce # of bets. As BTC rises, you'd assume that bettors would keep the real value of their betting constant through a gradual combination of decreasing bet quantity and decreasing bet size. Very good question. Thanks for bringing that up. How have you been able to discover this? Can that be seen on dooglus charts? Or do you keep track of sdice in sheet with daily numbers, deducted from dooglus charts? I pulled the numbers off of SatoshiDice's public statments on Google docs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dHB2dVdiaEltUHAtTWlBcFhXQVBYeGc#gid=12
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RationalSpeculator
Sr. Member
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Offline
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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May 02, 2013, 06:56:43 AM |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
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organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
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May 02, 2013, 07:06:14 AM |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations? This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means.
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