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201  Economy / Speculation / Re: what should I do, I invested a lot on: August 21, 2014, 09:05:16 AM
by the way, I am 28 yo I am not rich and I invested a lot of my savings, especially I bought a lot of LITECOIN....f**k  Cry Cry

Why Litecoin? You should have focused on Bitcoin, Litecoin is a clone with no added value to the original.
Cry Cry  I bought before, but unexpectedly it continued to depreciate, I was reluctant to sell at a low price, now I have about 1000 litecoins.


My recommendation is for newbies to stick to Bitcoin - alts, especially useless BTC clones like LTC (and its further clones), are just pure gambling and/or pump&dump schemes. Not a wise investment at all, unless you already own BTC and you just want to gamble a little.
202  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: The Official Mastercoin Foundation, Master Protocol & Mastercoin Thread on: August 21, 2014, 09:00:13 AM
It's quite weird to see that how the MSC founder made millions by delivering an unfulfilled promise, while now he is happily looking to re-buy his stash at below IPO price = at a loss for the people that trusted his project.

It looks awkward to me but you definitely made a nice killing, dacoinmaster. By the way, when we will see a real and useful application of Mastercoin, a true killer app?

203  Economy / Speculation / Re: what should I do, I invested a lot on: August 21, 2014, 08:50:19 AM
by the way, I am 28 yo I am not rich and I invested a lot of my savings, especially I bought a lot of LITECOIN....f**k  Cry Cry

Why Litecoin? You should have focused on Bitcoin, Litecoin is a clone with no added value to the original.
204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2014, 01:03:55 PM
Did Jorge Stolfi buy bitcoins yet?
205  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Encrypted wallet.dat, lost password, any solutions? on: August 20, 2014, 08:51:09 AM
Btcrecover seems the very best password recovery tool, the tool set is impressive. Did anyone go through the code to check that it doesn't do anything malicious?

I'll take that as a compliment Wink

But as far as I know, nobody has done so. The Python code is long (approaching 4k lines mostly in a single file) and complicated, and "evolved" into its current somewhat messy state (as opposed to being well planned out, sorry...).

However I did write some "extract" scripts that are short and fairly easy to understand documented here: https://github.com/gurnec/btcrecover/blob/master/extract-scripts/README.md. The idea was that you could run one of the extract scripts directly on your wallet file, copy/paste the base64-encoded results into a VM w/o network access, and then not worry about what btcrecover might do with it (assuming you read and understood the short extract script). At worst, it could waste a bunch of CPU/GPU time, but at least it couldn't steal you wallet.

Of course, all that only really helps if you're already somewhat of a "techie" who knows how to set up a VM. I suspect that many people who choose to run btcrecover are not techies, and are putting themselves at risk (speaking as objectively as I can, of course as the code monkey who wrote it, I claim it's perfectly safe Smiley ).

I recommend you to to write a dedicated post for your tool, I think it deserves it!
206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2014, 02:01:55 PM
There are only $5.72M sitting on Bitstamp's order book - anyone remembers if this is the lowest amount we had on Bitstamp's bid side in 2014? I'm curious... And I kinda miss blockchained.com historical market depth charts, anybody knows where to find historical charts for major exchanges bid/ask figures?

Inevitable plug for

http://www.coinorama.net/

from me Cheesy

And the answer is, I'm afraid, yes (at least as far as coinorama's history goes)

Thanks for that!

We are definitely at a 2014 low in terms of fiat on Bitstamp's bid side

207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2014, 12:21:06 PM
There are only $5.72M sitting on Bitstamp's order book - anyone remembers if this is the lowest amount we had on Bitstamp's bid side in 2014? I'm curious... And I kinda miss blockchained.com historical market depth charts, anybody knows where to find historical charts for major exchanges bid/ask figures?
208  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Encrypted wallet.dat, lost password, any solutions? on: August 19, 2014, 12:11:44 PM
is your script compatible with Multibit?

Btcrecover supports Multibit.

Does this new python password recovery tool bypass the RPC to make it way faster?

Btcrecover (written in Python) doesn't use the Bitcoin RPC API. With Bitcoin Core wallets, on a single core CPU it's around 15% slower. On a machine with more than one CPU core it's faster. There's also experimental GPU support which makes it much faster, if it works at all...

For Armory, it's exactly the same speed (because it uses the Armory library) except that it can use multiple CPU cores which again makes it faster.

For Multibit (classic) and Electrum, it's quite a bit faster than any of the wallet types above because these two wallets unfortunately don't use any key stretching...

Btcrecover seems the very best password recovery tool, the tool set is impressive. Did anyone go through the code to check that it doesn't do anything malicious?
209  Economy / Speculation / Re: what should I do, I invested a lot on: August 19, 2014, 11:41:25 AM
hi, I invested a lot at the beginning of this year thinking bitcoin would have risen again as usual, I bought many btc when it was 830 and some after when it was 660. I waited for the pump but things are getting bad. I am wo4ried. I am 26 yo I am not rich and I invested a lot of my savings. I can live without, ok, but they were my savings. What should I do now? is this the end? Will bitcoin rise again at least until 830?

Ask yourself:

1) Why did I buy bitcoin
2) Did I invest only what I can afford to lose?

If the answer to 1) is "to make money quickly" then you understood nothing about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme, it is a disruptive technology in its early phase, and thus it is very risky and extremely volatile.

If the answer to 2) is "no" then you made a big mistake because of the above. Being Bitcoin extremely volatile and risky you will get emotional and thus you will make mistakes.

Furthermore, you seem to have made a poor analysis of Bitcoin past performance. You say "I thought bitcoin would have risen again as usual", omitting that Bitcoin lost 94% of its value in the Summer of 2011 (from $32 to $1.98) and 80% of its value in the Summer of 2013 (from $266 to $50). Just by giving a quick look to the historic Bitcoin price chart you should have asked yourself: "am I ready to see my investment losing 60%, 80% or even 90% of its fiat value without worrying, as this kind of price depression has usually happened to Bitcoin after sharp increases in value"?

Looking at the bright side, post like yours show quite clearly that we are close to the very bottom.
210  Local / Altcoins (criptomonedas alternativas) / Re: Ethereum Pre-Venta on: August 18, 2014, 09:05:31 PM

Asi es! el que ha comprado Ether lo ha hecho como inversion pensando en que venderá caro. No obstante el proyecto es interesante, otra cosa es que funcione. Si llega a funcionar el mundo cambiará otra vez

El proyecto son un montón de buenas promesas pero el modelo de financiación crea las circunstancias perfectas para que se queden en eso, promesas. En lugar de trabajar para crear un producto y enfrenterse con él al mercado se prioriza conseguir la financiación en sí. Ethereum ha elegido hacer una IPO equiparando en la práctica los "ethers" a acciones de una start-up, pero los inversores ni siquiera saben qué porcentaje de la empresa están comprando con su dinero ya que el número total de "ethers" en circulación es indefinido... Veo mucho hype y poca chicha.
211  Local / Altcoins (criptomonedas alternativas) / Re: Ethereum Pre-Venta on: August 18, 2014, 05:10:57 PM
Espero que los chicos de Ethereum no se hubieran deleitado demasiado pensando en lo ricos (en dólares) que se habían vuelto de la noche a la mañana, no sea que el BTC siga bajando y se acojonen y vendan de golpe todo lo recaudado Cheesy

Ahora en serio, me fascina la irracionalidad galopante que se respira en este ecosistema de las "alts". He leído historias de gente que ha invertido decenas de miles de euros en Ethereum sin ni siquiera haberse leído el whitepaper, convencidos de que ésta era su oportunidad de subirse al carro del "Bitcoin 2.0".

Muy mal por parte de Vitalik que ha promocionado su proyecto precisamente en esos términos. Ethereum no tiene NADA que ver con Bitcoin desde el punto de vista económico: Bitcoin (la moneda) está diseñado para ser dinero de calidad, valioso y apto para su uso como valor refugio, en cambio los "Ethers" no son más que "créditos" con los que recompensar a los nodos que ejecuten código en la Red Ethereum, protegiéndola a su vez de spam, etc... Pero como moneda para otros usos es un desastre: mala distribución, proceso de minado confuso (un nuevo POW que habrá que ver cómo funciona), moneda inflacionaria (casi que diría que hiper-inflacionaria), base monetaria indeterminada y a merced de los deseos y/o necesidades de sus desarrolladores...

No dudo de que Vitalik sea un tipo listo y de que es necesario dar un paso adelante en lo que respecta al desarrollo de nuevas aplicaciones  inspiradas en el concepto de cadena de bloques, es verdad que el scripting que se puede hacer en el blockchain del Bitcoin es limitadísimo, pero intentar vender Ethereum como una evolución de Bitcoin como moneda me parece un insulto a la inteligencia... Están en polos opuestos. Los bitcoins están diseñados para ser cada vez más valiosos, replicando de forma casi perfecto el proceso de extracción y minado del oro así como su escasez, los Ethers en cambio no son más que la "gasolina" que hace funcionar una red distribuida, sin más. Comprar "ethers" si uno no tiene pensado utilizarlos para algo (me refiero a construir aplicaciones en la red de Ethereum) es una soberana gilipollez... Y aún así me apuesto los calzones a que el 95% de los que han participado en la IPO lo han hecho simplemente pensando en el "tremendo beneficio" que les espera.

Lamentable...

212  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [RFC] æthereum: a turing-complete coin distributed as per bitcoin's blockchain on: August 18, 2014, 04:33:06 PM
This is the equivalent to Satoshi releasing the code and the very same day VISA comes, clones, implements, and fucks up the original creator, abusing its current market position.

C'mon, it's just common sense. Do we really need to explain why this is wrong?


It's not wrong if VISA (or whoever) respects the license under which Bitcoin is published (MIT).

Full license: http://opensource.org/licenses/MIT
Copying: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/COPYING

This is how open source works.

Anyhow, the guaranteed outcome of the VISA/Bitcoin example you've made is that people would prefer Satoshi's Bitcoin over VISA's clone, in fact I believe you've made the perfect example against your own argument.

Regarding your comment that spin-offs are shameless and parasitic, many people believe it's altcoins (especially those that are pre-mined and IPOed) that are parasitic and hurt cryptocurrency.  Spin-offs are cooperative in that all bitcoin holders are automatically piggybacked along with any new innovation.  

NO.

What you are proposing could kill the altcoin scams, but also legit projects like ethereum. By "git cloning" any project and just modifying few parameters you are becoming what you despise: A parasite.

Nonsense. Peter is trying to address a crucial issue which is the initial distribution of some alts. He's not parasiting anything, in fact he is trying to improve something that is not working well and that is creating many negative incentives in the ecosystem.

If the userbase of a cryptocurrency migrates en masse to a clone because it uses a bitcoin-blockchain-based distribution it just means that the market has decided that the distribution of the clone is better than the distribution of the original. That's just open source working at its best in a free market enviroment.


213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: August 18, 2014, 01:29:21 PM
There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.

Very very bearish IMO now...

What does very very bearish look like to you?  Under $400?  Under $300?? Shocked

Under $300 would definitely be extremely bearish... Around $400 is not a big deal IMO. During the April 2013 bubble the price deflated from $266 to $50 - that's a depreciation of 80%, on the contrary $400ish would only be a 65-70% depreciation compared to the $1242 top. I don't see much real drama happening if $300 is not broken on the downside, and I honestly don't see it happening.
214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ethereum KILLING BITCOIN! on: August 18, 2014, 01:11:25 PM
Total FUD. Most the Etherium IPO funds remain intact and what has been sold was not significant enough to move the market in any meaningful way.

The expectation of the coin going to be sold off will cause the price to drop.

The current price always reflect the future event and not current one.

But 26000 BTC is nothing, only 8 days of mining...

8 days worth of the total inflation of a any given currency is an incredibly HUGE sum. Try to extrapolate such a thing to the USD or to any fiat currency of your choice, and add to that the fact that the BTC inflation decreases over time until deflation takes over, which doesn't apply to the USD.

so you are saying that double inflation on 8 days can influence the price downwards for over 10 % for Weeks?

I'm saying that in USD terms (4 trillion "official" monetary base, 2.1% "official" yearly infation rate) the equivalent of 8 days of inflation is almost 2 billions - ask Soros what can you do on Forex to major currencies like the British pound with much less than that, some creativity and a bit of leverage. You can definitely influence the price for weeks if you dump or short, especially if you add margin trading to the equation.

If you consider the fact that BTC's inflation rate is currently 11.11%, and that it will go down to less than 2% only in 2020, you get another idea of how much money 26k coins are in relation to both the final and the current bitcoin monetary base.

You can also see it this way: 26k btc are aprox. 0.2% of the current Bitcoin monetary base (not taking into account lost or destroyed coins). In USD terms that would mean at least 8 billion (probably much more because the real USD monetary base and inflation rate are impossible to verify and thus probably fake).

The fiat value of 26k coins (aprox. 12 million USD) might be nothing in relative terms (because Bitcoin is still extremely small), but it is a huge amount in absolute bitcoin terms - that's all I'm saying, especially when you consider that the total supply is limited (only 13 million now; only 21 million in total) and unalterable.

The bottom line is that 26k coins are a sum that definitely allows you to depress the bitcoin price if that is the goal you wish to achieve - especially during a time in which Bitcoin demand has obviously slowed down.

215  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How many backup copies have you for the wallet ? on: August 18, 2014, 09:11:37 AM
I have 4 copies in different locations but thats only for my cold storage wallet.

That is risky, because if one is in the wrong hand, others become useless. I'd prefer to have only one that is well secured.

No. You can have multiple layers of security.

For example:

1. Set a good walletpassword. A long string, 35+char with special signs.
2. PGP encrypt the wallet itself.
3. Use stenography to put it inside a picture.

What somebody peaking at your usb-stick would see would just be vacation001.jpeg etc, and no wallet.dat. They wouldn't even know it's there, and if they knew, they sure as hell would be unable to extract anything from it.

You can also rent a few VPS'es, and save the wallets there (password protected wallets that are also pgp encrypted), and name it like something innocent, like wifi-driver.bin or something.

So, even if your house burned down, you'd be safe.

I kinda like the stenography concept myself but the truth is that there are tools that easily detect such techniques. If an attacker is specifically targeting your bitcoins he will probably discover pretty fast in which files you are hiding something.

Quote from: TheFootMan

1. Set a good walletpassword. A long string, 35+char with special signs.


This is top security.

Quote from: TheFootMan

2. PGP encrypt the wallet itself.


Top security, but probably overkill considering you already did 1.

Quote from: TheFootMan

3. Use stenography to put it inside a picture.


Only 3 would be very bad security, combined with 1 (and/or 2) is OK but quite unnecessary IMO. The bad side of techniques like stenography is that they might seem like the most secure option to a non-savvy user - and a false sense of security is the mother of all hacks Smiley
216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ethereum KILLING BITCOIN! on: August 17, 2014, 12:04:43 PM
Total FUD. Most the Etherium IPO funds remain intact and what has been sold was not significant enough to move the market in any meaningful way.

The expectation of the coin going to be sold off will cause the price to drop.

The current price always reflect the future event and not current one.

But 26000 BTC is nothing, only 8 days of mining...

8 days worth of the total inflation of a any given currency is an incredibly HUGE sum. Try to extrapolate such a thing to the USD or to any fiat currency of your choice, and add to that the fact that the BTC inflation decreases over time until deflation takes over, which doesn't apply to the USD.
217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ethereum KILLING BITCOIN! on: August 17, 2014, 08:01:11 AM
Ethereum raised +26k BTC because people is so irrational they do not understand how bad an investment it might be. Ethers are NOT designed to be scarce and valuable as bitcoins are, Ethers are just tokens used to reward nodes running code on the ethereum network. Furthermore, the final supply is still unknown, the ethereum team is free to create Ethers out thin air as they see fit and inflation will be extremely high - they cannot be too scarce by design, that would hurt their main purpose.

Making a long story short, ethereum as a scripting language might enable awesome smart contracts but Ethers as a currency complete lack the economic incentives that make Bitcoin valuable and potentially much more valuable in the future. Bitcoin is built to be a gold-like, scarce commodity that has all the elements to be "good money", on the contrary Ethers are just "credits", which supply is controlled by a central authority, and which are built to be a security and anti-spam tool for a distributed network.

If you don't plan to build anything on the ethereum network, then you do not need Ethers.

If you bought Ethers because its "Bitcoin 2.0",then you were deeply misguided by ethereum team's marketing.

If you bought into ethereum planning to have a ROI, then your only chance is for the hype to grow, attracting to the market greater fools that do not understand what ethereum is, and what are the economic incentives attached to it.

Back on topic: it seems strange that the ethereum team is dumping instead of making off-exchange transactions. And BTW, which exchange are they using?
218  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: August 17, 2014, 01:12:19 AM
The bottom is near, excellent time to buy. 'Nuff said Wink
219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: August 14, 2014, 09:56:05 AM
Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.


That's pretty much it. $400s is hardly dramatic, it's just the usual up&down bitcoin volatility. Real drama starts in the low $300s and lower.... Real euphoria starts above $900, irrational exhuberance after ATM is broken.

If we break $450 I will start buying more coins Wink

220  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A Reddit user is claiming to be a whistleblower from the Federal Reserve... on: August 06, 2014, 11:19:22 AM
Let's hope its true....

I don't see why they need all those complicated statistical models, projections and simulations to realize the obvious: Bitcoin is the ultimate FED killer, and it is designed to go viral.

Anyhow, I don't see anything good or bad in this "whistleblower" report. Big bosses of the FED are realizing that Bitcoin is their big black Nemesis and that will kill their business model rather soonish? They had to realize it, sooner or later. They can only try to slow BTC adoption as much as possible, but they cannot stop it - Bitcoin is resilient by design.

Fill your Bitcoin wallets, grab popcorn and enjoy the show.
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