I'm a bit worried about Mechs, he disappeared after that - right?
Hope he didn't blew away all his BTC before this rally. The guy was a long-time investor, very conscious about his investment and always trying to give his opinion about what were the best moves for investors, and suddenly he went berserk and gambled it all, losing it... Not a funny situation if you ask me, unless he is in the Forbes list losing $2M is so crazy you can't even conceive it, i would remember it all my life when I look at my kids.
It seems that way, no one has seen him on JD and his forum account has not be active since October 2nd (bet was on the 4th). Pretty sad situation really, I hope the guy is ok. Just check his post history, in June this year he was writing he was new to BTC and he just recently invested in the currency, so he probably is not one of those legendary "mega early adopters" who mined thousands of coins with their CPU's... I'm not saying that losing millions of $ is less retarded if you didn't work hard to earn them, but probably Mechs spent a lot of $$$$ to buy those BTC. Gambling them away is simply crazy. |
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Accept that Luck and Variance will mess with your head.
Quoted for added effect. This really is the key takeaway. Bitcoin probabilities are inherently "awkward" to look at under a microscope. You can look at the last 2 days for an example of that, the network has had more than one period of an hour without a block from *any* pool on the network. It has also had periods of 7 blocks in 20 minutes. That's how random events work  |
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In this reddit thread it's said TF made all time high bets on JD, is that true?
Yes, it's true. There was talk at the time of his 561 BTC bet being a new "biggest ever BTC bet". On 29th June, BTC was trading on Mt.Gox between $93 and $98. Three of his bets are still listed on https://just-dice.com/biggest.txt : mechs' bet on 4th October for 7016 BTC at 4th October = $132 * 7016 = $925,000 is still the biggest bet, I think? That bet is now worth over $2M now, of course... Will I'm a bit worried about Mechs, he disappeared after that - right? Hope he didn't blew away all his BTC before this rally. The guy was a long-time investor, very conscious about his investment and always trying to give his opinion about what were the best moves for investors, and suddenly he went berserk and gambled it all, losing it... Not a funny situation if you ask me, unless he is in the Forbes list losing $2M is so crazy you can't even conceive it, i would remember it all my life when I look at my kids. |
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I was kidding, it was a nod to proudhon.
I'm of the opinion that next bear market will be the most devastating and the longest one so far (worse than 2011) because everyone is caught up in the belief that if only they hold long enough, they cannot possibly lose out on BTC, no matter their entry price. Every dip is a buying opportunity etc.
Furthermore, the current bubble developed very quickly after only 7 months between former alltime high. So, it's a bubble on top of a bubble in the same year.
We can talk about that once we actually top out. So far, we haven't even doubled from the 266 high.
I'm of the opinion that the time elapsed between each bubble will be shorter and shorter, each will be more 'violent' and price will go up/down more drastically until we reach the 'climax' or real price discovery. Then after that more bubbles will come, but the price will increase less and less each time, and time will be longer. We are far away for the 'climax', i think at least two more bubbles are needed. Just my 2shatoshis  The truth is that bubble 1 was more violent than bubble 2, (we went up x16, from 2 to 32), so I'd expect bubble 3 to be less violent than bubble 2 and 1. Regarding singularity, is a beautiful *theoric* concept, but its painfully clear to me that nor the protocol nor the infrastructure can scale to accomodate such a "singularity", and thus I consider it pretty much of a fairy tale. Anyhow, I will be obviously happy if it happens Really, I feel like we went from 5 to 266 in bubble #2. 5 was a long period of stability... in April 202 so that actually x50. The only real pullback between then and the top was the pirate disaster, and that is easily seen as artificial. That is, its a external event that could have been triggered anytime -- not really related to the trend. Good point, I felt like we went from $20 to $266, but you might be right. We will see very soon anyhow, it's clear for me that we are entering in mode "bubble #3", ATH is broken and we are currently growing exponentially, let's see how long it lasts and how far we go in this one. |
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It does all even out in the long run though. You can still see our luck since September 27th is holding strong at 103.9% currently.
Exactly. I don't get people whining so hard when there is a round of bad luck. You can see the whining in all pool's thread as soon as a few hours of bad luck arrive... Which is ridiculous and just demonstrates that people has no idea of how this work. Additionally, BTCGuild has been very lucky on average this last month, so you really do not understand what's going on if you complain. In the Eligius's thread people was already going for their forks when we hit a 0.1% block... Which is just stupid. |
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I was kidding, it was a nod to proudhon.
I'm of the opinion that next bear market will be the most devastating and the longest one so far (worse than 2011) because everyone is caught up in the belief that if only they hold long enough, they cannot possibly lose out on BTC, no matter their entry price. Every dip is a buying opportunity etc.
Furthermore, the current bubble developed very quickly after only 7 months between former alltime high. So, it's a bubble on top of a bubble in the same year.
We can talk about that once we actually top out. So far, we haven't even doubled from the 266 high.
I'm of the opinion that the time elapsed between each bubble will be shorter and shorter, each will be more 'violent' and price will go up/down more drastically until we reach the 'climax' or real price discovery. Then after that more bubbles will come, but the price will increase less and less each time, and time will be longer. We are far away for the 'climax', i think at least two more bubbles are needed. Just my 2shatoshis The truth is that bubble 1 was more violent than bubble 2, (we went up x16, from 2 to 32), so I'd expect bubble 3 to be less violent than bubble 2 and 1. Regarding singularity, is a beautiful *theoric* concept, but its painfully clear to me that nor the protocol nor the infrastructure can scale to accomodate such a "singularity", and thus I consider it pretty much of a fairy tale. Anyhow, I will be obviously happy if it happens |
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If you're going to go through all the trouble of setting up an offline computer it's just silly to put your wallet into an online computer.
Exactly. For the money you use often you should already have an encrypted "hot" wallet in an online computer - the question is: how much are you willing to risk online? Is like having an X amount of cash in your pockets while you take a walk at night - how dangerous or safe is that walk (or how dangerous or safe is your neighborhood) depends on how security conscious you are with your computer, but the risk by being online, bigger or smaller, ALWAYS exists. The only purpose of an offline wallet is precisely to reduce to the minimum the risk of having your cash in your pocket while you take a walk, if you bring that wallet online you are just defeating its primary purpose. |
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So, one question: for how many in here buying BTC has been the best financial decision EVER??
My wife bought when the price was £7.80. She spent £5k and bought 641 coins, worth about £130k or so now. This was probably the 2nd best decision she ever made (after answering "I do") I have bought a small number of coins from time to time, but my 2nd best decision ever was to buy a bunch of 5870s back in January 2001. Hat's off to the missus for having the balls to dump 5k back when it was £7. She was either a big believer or a big gambler  I guess that most BTC freaks like us are a little bit of both. And this gamble fueled by faith is paying off so far, IMO investing what you can afford to lose into BTC is a no-brainer, historically has always been a huge win. |
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We can talk about that once we actually top out. So far, we haven't even doubled from the 266 high.
This. It all depends on how quick we go. If we double $350 in just a few days, I will search for cover and secure some profits for sure. If it takes another month or more, I will sit comfortably and enjoy the ride, I think I will secure some profits at $1300 or so /whishful thinking off |
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I have to admit I'm a bit worried of having gone parabolic so quick. As we all know parabolic growth is completely unsustainable mid term and preceeds panic sells and deep crashes (the wild euphoria turns into panic very quickly), so I would have been more comfortable with a few months of linear growth before the 3rd mania phase w/ exponential growth.
If this trend continues with stopping to consolidate and return to a sustainable path we would reaching five figures in just a month, honestly I don't think that will happen, is more likely that huge correction/pop happens before that unless there is a consolidation phase.
On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then) If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic. Given the very short timeframes in which BTC evolves, for that kind of analysis I prefer the daily charts. And looking at the daily charts we really entered the parabolic growth phase suddenly and quickly, it smells fishy to me. At this pace we will double the current price Tuesday/Wednesday next week, and if that happens for me is a clear sign that panic is around the corner, and I will sell a modest chunk to secure some profits. I for one hope this won't happen and price won't double for at least one month, volatility is nice but also not seeing your wealth changing 400% (for good and bad) in a few weeks |
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Well, I guess we can look forward to single digits next year now.
You never know with BTC. If the Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC, five digits before single digits for sure. On the contrary, if the parabolic growth continues for as little as a few days/weeks, I wouldn't be suprised to go below $50 this year. For me its clear that the more it goes up SO quickly, the deeper it will correct. Is basic psychology, people feels a huge and irrational rush when see their money doubling every few days, and that irrational excitment is easily reverted into panic - you know how we use to say, "the higher you fly the deeper you go"... In this case is very true especially in the case in which the heights are reached too quickly. |
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I have to admit I'm a bit worried of having gone parabolic so quick. As we all know parabolic growth is completely unsustainable mid term and preceeds panic sells and deep crashes (the wild euphoria turns into panic very quickly), so I would have been more comfortable with a few months of linear growth before the 3rd mania phase w/ exponential growth.
If this trend continues without stopping to consolidate and return to a sustainable path we would be reaching five figures in just a month, honestly I don't think that will happen, is more likely that huge correction/pop happens before that unless there is a consolidation phase.
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Hi guys. I've been trying to avoid the spec forum, but I decided to break down and jump back in to say "hi". I'm pretty optimistic about bitcoin, but this move is surprising.
Wow. This is a bearish signal indeed. Guys: SELL SELL SELL!!! P.D.: Just joking Proudhon, very happy to have you here!! |
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was thinking more in the $1500 range, 5K seems like a lot for a hashrate that will be pretty modest in mere weeks
Well, neither Hashfast nor Cointerra are shipping. We already know about BFL. For $1.500 each I would buy 20 Jupiters. |
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You were all warned this is a scam. Just do a quick search on these forums.
but there was always someone on the thread, not this thread but another thread, saying o no you could actually get more bitcoins for your money that way. and that's why I fell for it. This site needs to be better organized and its members more vocal when someone gets it wrong. when I get my money back im taking it straight to coinbase. mining is retarded. you might as well solo mine its like buying a lottery ticket. one block erupter $10 if it hits you get over $5000 if it doesn't who cares. I've been posting the word SCAM in big red letters all over this thread (and many others about CH). Other long-term members wrote well reasoned posts about how this business model is a dead end and a very bad financial decision for "investors", its just a scammy scheme which only purpose is to exploit noobs ignorance. I can understand that mining has an appeal in itself especially for someone completely new to BTC, but you'd expect people to do a little bit of reading and thinking before throwing money to things, especially if those things are related to something as peculiar as BTC. |
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You were all warned this is a scam. Just do a quick search on these forums.
but there was always someone on the thread, not this thread but another thread, saying o no you could actually get more bitcoins for your money that way. and that's why I fell for it. This site needs to be better organized and its members more vocal when someone gets it wrong. when I get my money back im taking it straight to coinbase. mining is retarded. you might as well solo mine its like buying a lottery ticket. one block erupter $10 if it hits you get over $5000 if it doesn't who cares. FYI: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=173316.msg2508095#msg2508095https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=206637.msg2511601#msg2511601 |
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Bad news for Hashfast customers.
Good news for Bitfury and KnC batch 1 customers.
Either way this business model is unsustainable.
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You were all warned this is a scam. Just do a quick search on these forums.
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If the Bitcoin ETF is approved before the China mania pops oh boy, we are going to witness a real "perfect storm" in action
I don't really know when an answer from the SEC is expected on that matter - anybody does?
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