there is only one reason and it is not really that complicated, cryptocurrency like bitcoin doesn't need any type of centralized middleman to handle transactions and storage. it is designed so that you can easily do it yourself and be in full control. in other words if you use bitcoin you are making banks obsolete.

the dump market is happening every day that is why the price is still below $50k but the problem is that there are not more weak hands left to join in the dumping rituals and crash the price any lower than it has already gotten. there are only whale accumulators and manipulators who are trying to prevent the rise from happening by selling a lot of bitcoins every day.

the 1% of a million is $10,000 which was the existing difference for about an hour just now. but you are right that the profit of this size is still small but the difference is that you know that even if you want to buy or sell a large amount of bitcoin you can do that since the existing order sizes aren't as small as altcoins.

worth quoting here considering SSS:

i have used arbitrage trading strategy myself but for altcoins only and whenever their price had a big difference. but i am curious what percentage is the ideal price different for people who use this strategy for bitcoin trading.

for example looking at Binance the price has been about $300 to $350 below the market price and that is about 0.83% to 1% difference which looks good enough for bitcoin with a highly liquid market to me.

pumping shitcoins is super easy. there are also a lot of pumping groups who are waiting for any excuse to pump these low shitcoins because the real profit is as it has always been in pump and dumping shitcoins. that is why we saw such a mssive DOGE pump when they had the "excuse" to pump it.

as for bitcoin, it was not Elon who crashed bitcoin. there were A LOT of reasons why bitcoin crashed. and since you are new i have to tell you that such crashes are very common during the bitcoin bull runs.

- the main reason was that bitcoin had gone up too much and too fast with only small corrections so it needed a "pause" before it co uld rise big again.
- the other reason was because the $65k-$70k prices were too hard to reach and after a couple of attempts they didn't break. so the correction starteed.
- the other reason which contributed a lot was a huge FUD campaign that fooled newcomes into selling their bitcoin by scaring them into thinking: bitcoin's energy consumption is huge (lie), some countries including China are banning bitcoin (another lie), FBI hacked bitcoin (another huge lie), and a lot of crap like that which they used to  keep it down this low.

yet people only see the "celebrity" and associate everything with them!!!

i've been saying this for over a year now. ever since the US government decided they wanted to print a ton of USD we knew that the big inflation is going to get to us very soon and it has been showing its ugly face for some time now. it is more than the usual 3% and it is showing itself in places like real estate and food costs.

bitcoin on the other hand is still very strong even though it is affected by FUD for some very short periods.

i don't think US is going to approve any bitcoin ETFs anytime soon. other countries have already approved a bunch of them a long time ago then and they don't really affect bitcoin price.
as for the price by the end of this year i have decreased my prediction by i still don't think $100k is the top, it will be $300k. keep in mind that price went up 6x in only 8 months and the bull market is just getting started and the rises should become bigger and faster.

anything longer than 3-4 years is not possible to predict anymore, we can only say that bitcoin price will be a lot higher than the current price but the situation is not predictable. although you are doing a very interesting thing here. i'll keep an eye on it.
i also believe that after some years the market will be very different from today. for example by 2024 we may no longer see shitcoins (pointing to your comment about comeback of ICO,etc.) in general be a significant thing.

i also have a feeling that you are also not considering market maturity in your speculation. things such as the short term hyped up news or any irrelevant news in general won't affect bitcoin price by that much. so things like FUD about energy, shitcoin hype, bitcoin ETF, US election, regulations in general,... even Amazon accepting bitcoin won't affect bitcoin that much. however the adoption would be increasing faster and without any of the stop signs that slow it down today.

i'm not sure why you say "go back" because it suggests that bitcoin stopped being all the things you said which is not true. bitcoin has always been a medium of exchange and has been around alongside the other currencies but as the only decentralized one among them.
there are always a lot of speculators trading bitcoin. there are also a lot more people who are speculating about fiat in a market called "Forex" but that doesn't change the fact that what these people are trading is less of a currency.

i don't think (US) FED has the effect that you think on this (global) market. there is definitely a lot of FUD these days from all those people who lost a ton of money because of the small rise above $40k that we had though. they are panicking and spreading any FUD they can to spread their panic and prevent the rise from growing any bigger.

ok. lets say Bob owns 1 bitcoin and signs a valid transaction but sends it to you privately without settling it on chain. now he has SABU tokens, right?
so how are you going to prevent these two scam scenarios:
1. Bob spends his SABU tokens, for example buys a car, and the SABU transaction is supposed to be fast. then immediately he spends the same 1 BTC UTXO that was never settled on chain or even broadcast to the network so he takes his 1 BTC back too. now the initial "valid tx" you had is no longer valid.
2. You never send him SABU tokens but instead broadcast his transaction which will confirm. now he is both out of BTC and SABU.

if there were loopholes then i would agree, anyone else who is wise enough could have used them too. but the problem is that there is no loophole, it is the tax law that lets them get away with it. the same law that they have put there to benefit them! compare the tax laws of today with tax laws of 1980 for example and you'll see how over the years the same wealthy people have inserted favorable laws silently

since bitcoin is still being adopted and still the large majority of people haven't adopted it the effects of inflation on bitcoin is going to be twice as big. once is because of obvious reasons that as fiat loses its value, bitcoin gains more value against it. but another reason is that as inflation hits the economy hard people will start seeking safe havens to escape their failing economy and one of the very viable options in front of them is going to be bitcoin. with its phenomenal annual performance  there is nothing better to convert your inflating fiat to!

i don't know what TA you are talking about that got trashed but you should know that most TA you see is already wrong regardless of what has been happening recently. and you can always analyze the charts in a way to get a different prediction.

bitcoin has been in a bull market for some time now and i don't think that has changed yet. we may call the past month a small bear market but i don't think it would be a correct use of the term. it was more like a short term bump on the road and it takes time for the bitcoin car to get back on the road again and reach $70k.

he also said that Tesla has dumped 10% of the millions of dollars worth of bitcoin they have which people are so conviniently ignoring because it helps with claiming that Elon Musk is the only reason for this rise!!!

believe it or not this rise has nothing to do with him specially since he posted that tweet AFTER the price rise began. he also did the same thing last week when $39k resistance was being tested but failed to break it which again people are so conviniently ignoring!!!

i don't see anything wrong with that. there is only two direction this can go.
the positive direction is if the Bitcoin Mining Council actually does something to the energy section and makes them move to less polluting solutions and we end up getting a better environment regardless of the "bitcoin" part. and of course the bitcoin miners can gain access to cheaper and cleaner energy produced by the same energy section.

the negative direction is that they don't really do anything and sit around raise some funds and waste some time. which won't affect bitcoin and its decentralization as people seem to be worried about here.

i don't think this has anything to do with Biden or Democrats that you are singling out because this didn't start today. it started years ago, i believe it was Reagan that started changing everything in favor of the wealthy and we are talking about 80's which is 40 years ago now. he basically brought Capitalism to America and made it thrive. then the wealthy that used to pay the highest taxes (percentage wise) started to pay less and less. eventually they got the power over US laws and shaped it to benefit them the most. and this continued happening during both Republicans and Democrats alike.
any president these days both doesn't care because it benefits them too and doesn't even have the power to change anything.

he made the tweet AFTER the rise started. shortly after but still after it.
also you can't possibly think that him saying a big "maybe" in addition to continuing his FUD about the bitcoin energy consumption and pollution (both of which are also present in that tweet and you are ignoring them)  and saying Tesla has sold bitcoin is the reason for this rise!!!

if anything bitcoin is rising despite Elon's FUD.

it depends on the trend. for example not every year we have a very long and big bear market, it only happens every once in a while. last time it was 2018 that is 3 years ago already.
or not every year we have a massive bubble and this one was 4 years ago and may repeat this year if price reaches $300k to $400k after people panic sold above $100k

this is not yet the FOMO we had in mind which may be because of the fear that resides in the market for now.
but as the Taproot locked in status news spread the price started rising up slowly and after more than a month of dumping reached $40k again. so far we have been able to hit $40500 and volume is starting to increase with the price too.
transaction fees took a big jump to 44 MB mempool and 24 satoshi/byte too.

if this direction is continued we can slowly see the FOMO begin too. we definitely have all the signs.