1104
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Economy / Auctions / Re: 4 BTC debt of TradeFortress (Ripple IOUs)
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on: May 17, 2013, 03:43:33 PM
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I'm either missing something or you're all brute stupid.
Why are you bidding on something that even TradeFortress (The one who is supposed to honor the IOU) implied that he wasn't going to be doing so?
I don't know much about Ripple, so feel free to tear this post to bits.
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1105
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Economy / Lending / Re: Guide to Reputation
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on: May 17, 2013, 03:40:19 PM
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With the amount of people getting scammed recently, this is a great principal to re consolidate.
It's simple logic, yet people still fail to notice.
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1111
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: SatoshiDice USA Ban
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on: May 17, 2013, 10:58:35 AM
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It can't.
In theory, this won't stop USA players from betting on it if they already know about it.
It will however severely affect SD in terms of marketing. They can't simply get new US players by having a link to their website on Bitcointalk or through google etc. Mainly USA people who knew about SD prior will end up betting from now on I assume. Obviously, SD could have a trick up their sleeve to get around this though. We'll see.
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1112
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Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
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on: May 17, 2013, 10:56:01 AM
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The difference is that "quitting while we're ahead" means the first time you're ahead, which will probably happen early on with only a small amount bet gained.
"Quitting while you're behind" in this case means you've lost all you can afford to lose, which won't necessarily be a small amount.
The other difference is that the "ahead" is a state that may never happen for some players, if they lose their first few bets and never recover those losses. On the other hand, given the 1.9% house edge, the "behind" state will happen for all players if they just keep playing long enough. In fact so will the "lost it all" state if they play enough times. For the purposes of analysis, imagine there's an endless line of players who take on SatoshiDice one at a time, like in a kung-fu movie. Each one starts with 100 BTC and plays until he has lost it all, then quits forever. We can say that after the Nth player has finished playing, the house profits will be 100*N BTC. And we can also say that on average each player bets a total of 100 / (1.9/100) = 5263.16 BTC. I think I've satisfied myself (though probably nobody else) that people's tendencies to quit only when they've lost their bankroll doesn't affect the house's percentage profits, and that the current better-than-expected profits are merely the result of some good house luck earlier this year. Even if that whale was always intending to keep playing until he lost it all, that process could have taken him 10 times longer than it did. The house profits would be the same as they are now, but they would then be less than expected instead of being more than expected as they currently are. Relevant analogy : If there is a country where every husband and wife decides to have children until they have a boy, what is the distribution of boys vs. girls in the country? Exactly the same still. Probability is a continuum regardless of how you go about it.
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1113
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Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Please check my math!
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on: May 17, 2013, 10:51:00 AM
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With that much money, you would not need build anything. Just buy all the Bitcoins that people are willing to sell, that alone would be enough to control it because there is a limited number that will ever be produced. The market values you read about have quite a bit of fluff to them since people having to be willing to purchase it for that amount, let alone sell it.
That won't change much lol. Simple money supply tbh. Bitcoin would just be boosted through that one would think.
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1115
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Economy / Gambling / Re: Stuck on Bitbears
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on: May 17, 2013, 09:59:54 AM
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I have a feeling this will only make it less likely for someone to buy! If you're having troubles selling at .7 BTC, obviously no one will try their luck at 1.5 or whatever the markup is. Take the loss on the chin & stay away from chain games. If you're looking to gamble, at least bet on something where you know your odd's & thus expected return.
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1116
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Economy / Gambling / The SatoshiDICE Update - Effects?
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on: May 17, 2013, 09:58:30 AM
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To all the Bitcoin gambling website owners out there:
Have you seen a higher level of bets throughout the last 24 hours? Has this update truly affected the market?
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1117
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Why no crash today?
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on: May 17, 2013, 09:56:47 AM
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If you are holding a currency that can not be seized, why would you sell it for a currency that can be seized after the government starts seizing currency?
So perfect. So so perfect.
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1120
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Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game
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on: May 17, 2013, 09:39:28 AM
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I'd just like to stop in here and say congrats to the dice team on their recent publicity.
It looks like you and exante hired the same marketing firm?
The only question is, why have you not yet hired dooglus?
So true on the dooglus part lol. He'd be perfect for SD
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