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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: July 29, 2021, 06:18:11 PM


1) That was a typo. I updated all data in the chart, except I forgot to update the formula parameters in the chart... Updating the chart was a hard manual process, and so subject to minor errors.
2) The chart should be updated regularly...
3) I made those charts to have an idea of whether the BTC price was overvalued or undervalued at the moment of every update. The chart could also be useful for estimating under-over valuation for one or two years in the future. And also gave and idea of the enormous revalorization of BTC that was left by them. But I never did that as a prediction, because no one can predict the market behavior. The price hitting 10k with just days of difference... is just luck. No cristal ball here... Seriously.
4) The wolframalpha gave an approximation of the value at a given date, given that updating the chart was a hard process.


Glad to see the legendary Trolololo!!

Have you ever added overbought and oversold bands to better visualize those levels? Is there a model that includes bands that you like more?

It would be interesting to see where the overbought band is right now or 6 months ahead.

The rainbow chart is a very nice way to visualize oversold and overbought levels.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: July 29, 2021, 12:05:43 PM
Hello! I am writing to this forum for the first time. I was very interested in the work of Trolololo and I decided to get into it in detail. I carefully and thoroughly studied this whole forum https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0 and made sure that its formulas in the past gave accurate results! Thank you very much Trolololo for your fundamental work.
       But I do not understand everything, so I am forced to turn to all of you and, above all, to the distinguished Trolololo for help and clarification ....
       Trolololo several times laid out similar, but slightly different formulas. All these formulas give different results and all these results change every day ... Today, 07/20/2019, the formulas give the following results:

10/22/2014 5-17-47
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864) 11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

 
12/30/2014
10 ^ (2.9065 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.493)
31480
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(2.9065++*+ln((nnumber+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.493)

 
3/9/2015
10 ^ (3.1737 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.424)
59234
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.1737++*+ln((nnew+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+21.424)

 
05.28.2015
10 ^ (3.11800081827247 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.0858000278001)
44773
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E (3.1800081827247++*+ln ((number+of+days+s++2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+++21.0858000278001)

 
04/14/2016
10 ^ (2.84737734739566 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.2400124152881)
18323
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.84737734739566++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.2400124152881)


01/10/2017
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864)
11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

  

          In this regard, I have the following questions:
1) I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the first and last formulas on October 22, 2014, 17–47 and 01/10/2017 are absolutely identical !!! Why? Why, then, were changes made to the formula for three years?
 2) Which of these formulas is relevant today?
3) If I understand correctly, these formulas show the predicted price of Bitcoin after some time in the future. After what about time Bitcoin should reach the price, which shows the formula at the moment.
4) What are the days of brackets (number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) does this formula substitute for getting the correct result?

1) That was a typo. I updated all data in the chart, except I forgot to update the formula parameters in the chart... Updating the chart was a hard manual process, and so subject to minor errors.
2) The chart should be updated regularly...
3) I made those charts to have an idea of whether the BTC price was overvalued or undervalued at the moment of every update. The chart could also be useful for estimating under-over valuation for one or two years in the future. And also gave and idea of the enormous revalorization of BTC that was left by them. But I never did that as a prediction, because no one can predict the market behavior. The price hitting 10k with just days of difference... is just luck. No cristal ball here... Seriously.
4) The wolframalpha gave an approximation of the value at a given date, given that updating the chart was a hard process.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: July 29, 2021, 11:41:23 AM
Where is Trolololo  Roll Eyes Shocked

I have been busy in other things... Wink
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $15k in March, $8.5k by June, then $30+k by Q1/2019? on: March 05, 2018, 08:13:17 PM
Thank you for the link!
Amazing article!
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: March 05, 2018, 08:08:27 PM
Amazing @anonymint's analysis:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019

discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3057203
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: March 05, 2018, 08:07:45 PM
Amazing @anonymint's analysis:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019

discussed here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3057203
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: March 05, 2018, 06:55:16 PM
@vapourminer

Thank you very much for your donation!  Grin
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: February 18, 2018, 12:26:41 AM
Here is the updated chart:



Calculate today's trendline value HERE

Please, donate to:
BTC: 3F6Cs4x5mnp1xnURih8TiHN52DFzfGShNh
LTC: MU6ZfwepfD73SAYwSQVwGx39zmmTXhef3i
DASH: XczitEhpmqPMX4fbTAEvV6SuSo1rBU532s
ZEC: t1TCLym7Jti5Qo2Wn9oMopNVGBMs2kxqkcs


PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, once again  Wink
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: December 27, 2017, 06:55:33 PM
Where is Trololo? Can he recompute his Bitcoin price regression chart now?

Sure, did u ever donate to him?

I will if he responds that his BTC address is up-to-date and that he will redo the Bitcoin price regression chart. I and others will donate if posts about that. No I did not donate in the past because I wasn’t following him.

Update Dec 4: saw no action on this and will stop following.


Yes, all addresses are up to date. Otherwise, I would have changed them...  Wink

Sorry for the delay answering questions, but I'm too busy and I seldom visit bitcointalk.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: December 27, 2017, 06:52:29 PM
Here is the updated chart:



Calculate today's trendline value HERE

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi

PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, again  Wink

Observing the spread chart, we are heavily overvalued, more than 5x times the estimated value.
Only 2 times we were higher: June 2011 and nov 2013...
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: December 27, 2017, 06:45:17 PM
Here is the updated chart:



Calculate today's trendline value HERE

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi

PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel, again  Wink
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis on: November 07, 2017, 09:09:32 AM
People still read this thread??

Yes, sure !!  Grin
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: July 04, 2017, 10:32:17 AM
@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little


Actually, Trolololo, could you make one for the total marketcap of all coins?

Let me know for how much you can do this? I'm very happy to pay for this to get this done as soon as possible.


The one thing I think these calculations overlook is that other cryptos can take over the market from bitcoin and so past growth trend may not be extrapolated into the future. This has also just happened I think due to the black swan event of bitcoin not being able to process anymore transactions for half a year now. However for the whole cryptocurrency market this is still valid, but if u were to make such a chart I think you would see that current marketcap of all cryptos is already considerably above it's expected average and is due for a correction, and therefore Bitcoin as well, eventhough it is not yet way above it's expected price.


All coins marketcap log regression
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: July 04, 2017, 10:28:59 AM

Trolololo, only recently discovered this amazing work - THANK YOU (and others).

I did a bit of my own work in Excel and came up with this chart, which I think is fairly close (based on 1st of the month values in CoinMarketCap). (...)
I then made a monthly chart for BTC for the last 2.5 years and like the correlation.

Nice !!

Quote
But I have to confess I don't completely understand the values for 10 ^ 2.66167155005961 as well as the -17.9183761889864? Could you potentially elaborate or point me in the right direction?
Those are the parameters thar define the log curve.

Quote
Reason been - I tried to evaluate ETH and had to move the START DATE from 9-JAN-2009 (for BTC) to 1-JAN-2013 (ETH?) to get an "acceptable visual correlation" (not very scientific I know). This is my best guess at the moment...

I don't know when ETH was incepted, but that should be the start date.
15  Economy / Speculation / Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: July 03, 2017, 07:52:23 PM


To know where do this comes from: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0

Calculate today's trendline value HERE

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:19sEscR9bfH2ttXb5WbcabYbRGjq2znwPi

PS: Special thanks to Marc De Mesel

-----

Updated chart 27-12-2017
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis on: February 03, 2017, 05:15:10 PM
Hi, could you take a look at this article and tell us what do you think about it in EW terms? Thank you !!

The fractal relationship between bitcoin’s first two bubbles and what they might tell us about a third - Paul Gordon - medium.com

17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: January 10, 2017, 11:49:28 AM
Could u update Trolololo?  Cool

Chart update!!



Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
18  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: [ META] Necesitamos un moderador. ( Vota por un candidato) on: August 24, 2016, 07:59:25 PM
Yo también voto por franckuestein
19  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: zTrader - Android trading app on: June 20, 2016, 08:47:55 AM
Hi,

I need some help: I can't add a pair.

The process:


Edit pairs
+
kraken
BTC/USD

Message: "You already have this pair"

But the pair is not in the list!!!



I have the PRO version

Thanks


Issue solved in new update.

Thank you!
20  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: zTrader - Android trading app on: May 31, 2016, 06:11:04 PM
Hi,

I need some help: I can't add a pair.

The process:


Edit pairs
+
kraken
BTC/USD

Message: "You already have this pair"

But the pair is not in the list!!!



I have the PRO version

Thanks
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