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Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 113705 times)
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lordoliver
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April 19, 2016, 08:53:03 AM
 #141

I have to ask again. Why do you think this kind of graph is fitting? Does it have any similarities to other commodities/currencies/assets?

For example gold long term, dow jones long term, any stock, nothing is fitting in there...
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June 07, 2016, 01:56:56 AM
 #142

Any updates Smiley
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June 14, 2016, 07:09:35 PM
 #143

Hello all, I'd like to share my previous chart on tradingview
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VKWhgBho-Cup-and-handle-pattern-for-Bitcoin/

Thanks for the chart, but... what's their relation with the topic of this thread?
If you take a look to the previous messages you'll notice that people is discussing about the @Trolololo bitcoin logarithmic graphics.  Wink

You can share your TA in other threads like:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0

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Marc De Mesel
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December 19, 2016, 08:47:46 PM
 #144

Could u update Trolololo?  Cool

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January 10, 2017, 11:49:28 AM
Last edit: July 04, 2017, 10:39:04 AM by Trolololo
 #145

Could u update Trolololo?  Cool

Chart update!!



Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe
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January 10, 2017, 04:54:42 PM
 #146

Thanks for the update!

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January 11, 2017, 01:24:12 AM
 #147


Chart update!!


Typo on the chart, should say January 3rd *2017*.
Marc De Mesel
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January 11, 2017, 06:10:50 PM
 #148



Chart update!!


Thanks so much man! Smiley

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January 29, 2017, 07:54:38 PM
 #149

Hey I wonder what it would take to get an updated Monero chart now that Monero has gone semi-exponential?   
 
You can't say you weren't warned wellllllll ahead of time.  Wink

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February 06, 2017, 08:41:38 AM
 #150

@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little
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March 11, 2017, 08:05:13 PM
 #151

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:
https://s27.postimg.org/illwa70gz/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg
Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE

Hi,
Great job !!!!!
Do you have by chance a similar chart for DASH ?
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April 08, 2017, 01:15:45 PM
 #152

Any update to the Chart?
Thanks!
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May 26, 2017, 09:45:19 PM
 #153

Could u update Trolololo?  Cool

Chart update!!

https://s27.postimg.org/illwa70gz/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg

Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

@Trolololo, there is no image available.
Can you please update?
Thank you.

Edit: Please disregard, it's working. Thanks again.
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June 21, 2017, 06:54:04 PM
 #154

@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little


Actually, Trolololo, could you make one for the total marketcap of all coins?

Let me know for how much you can do this? I'm very happy to pay for this to get this done as soon as possible.


The one thing I think these calculations overlook is that other cryptos can take over the market from bitcoin and so past growth trend may not be extrapolated into the future. This has also just happened I think due to the black swan event of bitcoin not being able to process anymore transactions for half a year now. However for the whole cryptocurrency market this is still valid, but if u were to make such a chart I think you would see that current marketcap of all cryptos is already considerably above it's expected average and is due for a correction, and therefore Bitcoin as well, eventhough it is not yet way above it's expected price.

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July 02, 2017, 08:38:26 AM
 #155

@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little


Actually, Trolololo, could you make one for the total marketcap of all coins?

Let me know for how much you can do this? I'm very happy to pay for this to get this done as soon as possible.


The one thing I think these calculations overlook is that other cryptos can take over the market from bitcoin and so past growth trend may not be extrapolated into the future. This has also just happened I think due to the black swan event of bitcoin not being able to process anymore transactions for half a year now. However for the whole cryptocurrency market this is still valid, but if u were to make such a chart I think you would see that current marketcap of all cryptos is already considerably above it's expected average and is due for a correction, and therefore Bitcoin as well, eventhough it is not yet way above it's expected price.



I agree with Marc, please make one of the total market cap, thank you!
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July 03, 2017, 05:22:29 AM
 #156

Could u update Trolololo?  Cool

Chart update!!

https://s27.postimg.org/illwa70gz/logarithmic_03_01_2017.jpg

Today's theoretical value (check HERE) is around 2100 USD, so the price is half undervalued.

Please, consider donating to bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Trolololo, only recently discovered this amazing work - THANK YOU (and others).

I did a bit of my own work in Excel and came up with this chart, which I think is fairly close (based on 1st of the month values in CoinMarketCap).

https://s2.postimg.org/ddzobwvpl/btc-chart-6mnth.jpg

I then made a monthly chart for BTC for the last 2.5 years and like the correlation.

https://s2.postimg.org/x7bs4m93d/btc-chart-1mnth.jpg

But I have to confess I don't completely understand the values for 10 ^ 2.66167155005961 as well as the -17.9183761889864? Could you potentially elaborate or point me in the right direction?

Reason been - I tried to evaluate ETH and had to move the START DATE from 9-JAN-2009 (for BTC) to 1-JAN-2013 (ETH?) to get an "acceptable visual correlation" (not very scientific I know). This is my best guess at the moment...

https://s2.postimg.org/l809xb3ih/eth-chart-mnth.jpg

Any help / pointers / explanation appreciated.

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July 04, 2017, 10:28:59 AM
 #157


Trolololo, only recently discovered this amazing work - THANK YOU (and others).

I did a bit of my own work in Excel and came up with this chart, which I think is fairly close (based on 1st of the month values in CoinMarketCap). (...)
I then made a monthly chart for BTC for the last 2.5 years and like the correlation.

Nice !!

Quote
But I have to confess I don't completely understand the values for 10 ^ 2.66167155005961 as well as the -17.9183761889864? Could you potentially elaborate or point me in the right direction?
Those are the parameters thar define the log curve.

Quote
Reason been - I tried to evaluate ETH and had to move the START DATE from 9-JAN-2009 (for BTC) to 1-JAN-2013 (ETH?) to get an "acceptable visual correlation" (not very scientific I know). This is my best guess at the moment...

I don't know when ETH was incepted, but that should be the start date.
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July 04, 2017, 10:32:17 AM
 #158

@Trolololo
I have another suggestion. Can you try to do this for the market cap instead? This should be a little more precise as its flattening out the early parts a little


Actually, Trolololo, could you make one for the total marketcap of all coins?

Let me know for how much you can do this? I'm very happy to pay for this to get this done as soon as possible.


The one thing I think these calculations overlook is that other cryptos can take over the market from bitcoin and so past growth trend may not be extrapolated into the future. This has also just happened I think due to the black swan event of bitcoin not being able to process anymore transactions for half a year now. However for the whole cryptocurrency market this is still valid, but if u were to make such a chart I think you would see that current marketcap of all cryptos is already considerably above it's expected average and is due for a correction, and therefore Bitcoin as well, eventhough it is not yet way above it's expected price.


All coins marketcap log regression
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July 11, 2017, 09:58:58 AM
 #159

Nice graphs man!

Quick question: how did you import the total marketcap data into excel?
Would you please share how you imported the data?
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August 06, 2017, 11:11:47 PM
Last edit: August 08, 2017, 07:53:26 AM by miauwmiauw
 #160

the past will show you the future
What you think about my future projection
https://pasteboard.co/GEsGOor.png

that would mean end 2018 = 14K but than slow deflation between 10k - 14k until 2023. than slowmotion bullrun till 2027 with ofcorso various ups and downs here and there.


Can't embed an image for some reason.
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