PnF TA

[saddambitcoin]

hodlmybtc, the only XMR chart they have on Tradingview is the Hitbtc, so that's why.

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[klee]

Ok, it seems that what I wished for (triple top breakout) did not happen 
But fortunately PnF would have to provide a clear signal and it did.

Some things (that were correct) to remember:

I am not predicting the direction - I know though the importance of the 300$ barrier.
It is 4th time we retest it this year. IMO there is no room for another failure. Whatever that means..


BTW, below 50$ the project should be considered dead.

The Chinese are getting in the mood to short everything. Once they realize they make more money with their money by putting up as margin shorting than buying becomes the new fad. You think they won't short Bitcoin too?

All assets other than the dollar are going be toasted by shorting over the next months as we head into the contagion that has been assured by the rising interest rates confirmed by the Fed leak a this past week.

I explained above why the current setup makes me cautious.
That does not mean I know where it will go (neutral ATM except some 'scalps') and we (everyone here) try with TA (TPTB with TA+fundamentals) to figure out a possible direction with every clue we can find in our charts.

In order to provide some more clues why a triple break must always be treated with caution in a counter signal, I will provide some more examples from BTC chart.

Coincidentally the first one is from the double top I mentioned before of last summer. I see many similarities with back then but there are of course differences too.
Not sure what will happen if we double top now (same or different pattern) but BTC tends to repeat patterns (don't you dare deny this! ).

So here is the first chart:



That was a very strong sell signal and a first serious warning that this asset should be treated with extreme caution! Even the subsequent strong double top could not reverse this and then we fell even harder!

We fell down to 445 and bounced at 530 - then another triple bottom (468) break finished any chances of recovery! We fell to 275:




275 to 410 and the another triple bottom at 368 sends us at 315. Then we rally up to 475 and we get another triple bottom at 365 which brings us at 165! :




That was the last time we encountered such a signal until the recent one.

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

Let me make this clear: Tripple bottom break AND bullish trend are INCOMPATIBLE!!!

Triple top/bottom break is very strong signal, I doubt 275 support will hold.

Sell signal:



But on support line. Be careful anyway you trade..

BTC triple bottom at 284$. If it holds extremely bullish. If it breaks (280$) very strong sell signal.

Resistance 288-292 & 300-304$. Bullish trend broken at 260$.

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

Also:

Gold target 500$. Worst case scenario 300$.
If BTC decouples it will go at least 2000$.
If not targets are about 100$ and 50$ respectively.

Gold and BTC were moving in the past both in parallel and anti parallel. Interesting to see where this will go!

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

[TPTB_need_war]

BTC MUST NOT follow Gold and this seems NOT to be the case now...

I think they are roughly correlated in terms of general direction, so if you correlate them with smoothing filter, you get very high correlation.

But they are noisy in short-term and fall out of correlation.

Also BTC is apparently much more volatile than gold.

You are trying to focus in on much shorter-term moves in price action.

We may go up or down short-term, but over next months we are going much lower.

[klee]

BTC MUST NOT follow Gold and this seems NOT to be the case now...

I think they are roughly correlated in terms of general direction, so if you correlate them with smoothing filter, you get very high correlation.

But they are noisy in short-term and fall out of correlation.

Also BTC is apparently much more volatile than gold.

You are trying to focus in on much shorter-term moves in price action.

We may go up or down short-term, but over next months we are going much lower.

Basically I am sure now that they will both crash hard as MA predicts for almost everything else (medium-long term). Language barrier from my side to express accurately in the post you quoted..

EDIT: A countertrend rally up to 290 is still possible.

[klee]

Holy shit, just realised that the catapult scenario came true but in a bear mode!

[klee]

XMR is on this setup too!

I am out of base so I can't reach my tools & charts but if we take hitbtc at TV (not very represantative but does the trick):



Double top failure at about 0.0034.

Also at 0.005.

At 0.003 though we have a breakout plus breaking 2 resistances so it is a nice buy signal. But not much profit up to 0.0035 where I expect an horizontal tough resistance (double top failure)

EDIT: Also the setup was very bearish, triple bottom break and then another double bottom (which led to lower lows formation too). A buy signal after this maybe a bull trap, so I would wait at least for 2 more Xs so we clear resistances and minimize the chances of a trap (more easy to get traped with only 1 box movement after a breakout/breakdown, usually if you wanna be more safe you wait for another box). Finally, there was no reason for me to buy at 0.0018 (catch the falling knife) but at 0.001 we have a nice double bottom.

[klee]

Bitcorn...

[Afrikoin]

now we watch $263 - $249

Edit*  range of MA's and EMAs around this zone for potential rebounds

Interesting crosses coming up on different chart times. MAs and EMAs.

I still feel bullish.

[Afrikoin]

BTC MUST NOT follow Gold and this seems NOT to be the case now...

I think they are roughly correlated in terms of general direction, so if you correlate them with smoothing filter, you get very high correlation.

But they are noisy in short-term and fall out of correlation.

Also BTC is apparently much more volatile than gold.

You are trying to focus in on much shorter-term moves in price action.

We may go up or down short-term, but over next months we are going much lower.

agree. Gold and BTC correlate long term IMO. Volatility may vary, but betting on gold long term is same basket as BTC.

Which is why TPTB_needs war, bitcoin is still valuable in a fin collapse despite non-anonymity. As long as it is an accessible asset class, that is enough for panic clamor.

[klee]

264$ - maybe we will find support here:

[klee]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/smart-beta-etfs-attract-billions-with-critics-blaming-dumb-money

[TPTB_need_war]

Which is why TPTB_needs war, bitcoin is still valuable in a fin collapse despite non-anonymity. As long as it is an accessible asset class, that is enough for panic clamor.

Agreed. I am thinking that a serious anonymous altcoin with a $1 million market cap is going to see much higher rates of appreciation than Bitcoin with a $billion marketcap.

Some people are going to want both the private asset and for it to truly be private. The majority may go for Bitcoin first, but with 1% of the people choosing the more private asset, then with 0.1% ratio of market caps, then the smaller cap should have 10X greater appreciation.

It is simple mathematics.

[Afrikoin]

Which is why TPTB_needs war, bitcoin is still valuable in a fin collapse despite non-anonymity. As long as it is an accessible asset class, that is enough for panic clamor.

Agreed. I am thinking that a serious anonymous altcoin with a $1 million market cap is going to see much higher rates of appreciation than Bitcoin with a $billion marketcap.

Some people are going to want both the private asset and for it to truly be private. The majority may go for Bitcoin first, but with 1% of the people choosing the more private asset, then with 0.1% ratio of market caps, then the smaller cap should have 10X greater appreciation.

It is simple mathematics.

good point. cant argue

[dragonseer]

Which is why TPTB_needs war, bitcoin is still valuable in a fin collapse despite non-anonymity. As long as it is an accessible asset class, that is enough for panic clamor.

Agreed. I am thinking that a serious anonymous altcoin with a $1 million market cap is going to see much higher rates of appreciation than Bitcoin with a $billion marketcap.

Some people are going to want both the private asset and for it to truly be private. The majority may go for Bitcoin first, but with 1% of the people choosing the more private asset, then with 0.1% ratio of market caps, then the smaller cap should have 10X greater appreciation.

It is simple mathematics.

As far as I'm concerned, the ongoing fascination with the 'anonymous' features of currencies like Dash and Monero is holding the crypto community back. If you really want a private asset then don't have one that can't function without the internet. When more people awaken to how institutions have been abusing them and will keep on doing so, they are more likely to get angry and shove it in people's faces that they are getting on board with something new. So something like Potcoin could be a dark horse that takes a big market share sometime in the future. This whole 'We want a revolution but we don't want to show our faces' movement has had its moment and died on the vine. The next phase, and one far more effective in instigating change, could be fuelled by Joe Citizen angry when he realizes that the FDA has known that cannabis slows tumor growth since the 70s, while corporate powers are secretly getting behind tech that they know accelerates tumor growth, like microwave radiation.

[klee]

CLOSE 1d:



Support 244-252$


HL:



Seems we found some support between the 2 green lines (256 & 264) and the bearish support (we actually came almost over it - it is at 260, we went down to 260.62).

Maybe a bounce here.

[ask]

Waiting for drop to 200MA (250 USD).

[klee]

Waiting for drop to 200MA (250 USD).

Most probably yes. Interesting to see after that what will happen, how far it can go upwards.

[TPTB_need_war]

As far as I'm concerned, the ongoing fascination with the 'anonymous' features of currencies like Dash and Monero is holding the crypto community back. If you really want a private asset then don't have one that can't function without the internet. When more people awaken to how institutions have been abusing them and will keep on doing so, they are more likely to get angry and shove it in people's faces that they are getting on board with something new. So something like Potcoin could be a dark horse that takes a big market share sometime in the future. This whole 'We want a revolution but we don't want to show our faces' movement has had its moment and died on the vine. The next phase, and one far more effective in instigating change, could be fuelled by Joe Citizen angry when he realizes that the FDA has known that cannabis slows tumor growth since the 70s, while corporate powers are secretly getting behind tech that they know accelerates tumor growth, like microwave radiation.

Tell that to the man who is sticking the big RED, WHITE, and BLUE expropriation dick up your ass in 2017 forward.

Smart money likes to silently get around the big dick.

The riots and pitch forks are for the masses who are enticed into for example supporting Napoleon as their savior who then enslaves them anew.

This is not a fascination. It will be a movement that will totally change the internet, the economy, and the world.

The world will not tolerate shutting down the internet, because it is driving all the profit now as we move towards a zero margin economy for mass produced manufacturing.

We can hide our data in encryption and anonymous mixes. When the government is destroying the economy, the people have no choice but to move to what still functions.

Don't forget, even the people in the government want to hide their ill gotten wealth also, so they will silently support an anonymous internet while publicly attacking it.

[TPTB_need_war]

I hope all of you have reviewed my posts in the kLee's PnF thread in the Economics -> Speculation forum.

You will find there people who will verify that I have predicted all of the major moves of the BTC price since the top last 2013. For example, I predicted the $315 top recently for the bounce exactly. And I made that prediction back in May when we were loitering in the low $200s.

You might also view my prescient public prediction for silver back in 2010 predicting the rise from $26 to $48 by March to May 2011 and then a fall to $26:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

I am able to do this by understanding very well both group psychology and more importantly because I understand Martin Armstrong's $1 billion supercomputer model of the history of the world, which for example predicted the closing price of oil at $54 for Dec. 31, 2014, back when oil was $100. I distinctly remember reading his blog back in August 2012 when the DJIA was correcting back below 12,000 and he predicted a steady rise from there to a possible double or triple. He also said that if it topped @ 18,000 in 2015, then that would be the sign that the USA stock markets had phase shifted (from being a public asset such as sovereign bonds) and aligned with private assets (such as gold, collectibles, Bitcoin). The point being that private assets peaked in 2011 (Bitcoin 2013 because it was playing catch up) and they will make their lows as the liquidity crisis accelerates and the final move into the short-end of the yield curve for bonds in Europe this October.

So gold, Bitcoin, and altcoins will be making their lows this coming spring 2016. This is 100% certain.

Expect gold to drop to < $700 ($680), Bitcoin will drop to double-digits again, and altcoins will be demolished fall to perhaps 1/5 their current prices.

So do NOT buy altcoins now. You want to be selling everything and moving to $dollars and wait.

As the Europe crisis accelerates this September - January, cash will be king. Japan will follow for its final leg down on its 26 year crisis culmination.

All over the world, capital is going to be stampeding into the $dollar and then USA stocks as safe haven. By 2017.9, we will see the DJIA double in price.

Private assets such as Bitcoin and gold, will get sold off severely because the shorts will pile on once they smell blood. The bottom will be reached by short covering, not by bulls. The bulls will be exhausted and have lost most of their capital by selling at the lows (which is what always happens to delusional fools who believe in an investing GOD as if BITGOD is something that can disobey the normal laws of investing).

I am telling you this because I want you to reserve some $dollar cash, so that you will be able to buy BTC and any world changing altcoin in Spring 2016 and become incredibly wealthy.

Ignore my warning at your peril!

...Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Originally posted on MA's blog 20th July.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35149

Well, here we almost are. Let's see if anything happens.

[klee]

It has begun...

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

Actually it was 315 & 298, almost 20$ AGAIN!

EDIT:  9 August