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Author Topic: [AEON] Aeon Speculation  (Read 184853 times)
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April 09, 2018, 07:45:46 PM
 #1461

Two graphics:


August 8



Today



Pay attention to volumes in peak areas.

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

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April 09, 2018, 10:27:14 PM
 #1462

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

Yes 1.1 million AEON was mined in last 8 months. What was not that huge, was way more in first 3 years. But emision is drastically slowing down. There will be way less mined in next 8 months. and then even less in additional 8 months.


Actually in last 8 months 750k BTC was mined. So is not that much off actually.   Bitcoin emision increased 4.4% in last 8 months. AEON emision increased 7% in last 8 months.  That is a difference but not drastic. And AEON will catch BTC before next BTC halving for sure.

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April 10, 2018, 01:45:28 AM
 #1463

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

Yes 1.1 million AEON was mined in last 8 months. What was not that huge, was way more in first 3 years. But emision is drastically slowing down. There will be way less mined in next 8 months. and then even less in additional 8 months.


Actually in last 8 months 750k BTC was mined. So is not that much off actually.   Bitcoin emision increased 4.4% in last 8 months. AEON emision increased 7% in last 8 months.  That is a difference but not drastic. And AEON will catch BTC before next BTC halving for sure.

What’s more intriguing is the fact that there is the 18.6(?) limit of coins plus tail emission to account for with both AEON and Monero. So you can compare the emissions with both BTC and AEON/XMR, but you must keep in mind that 18.6 mil cap.

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April 10, 2018, 01:46:36 AM
 #1464

@Febo. I am not as optimistic on Aeon this year after the Bitmain Cryptonote ASICs exposé. As the smaller project, I reckon Aeon can adjust more quickly if it embraces the use of ASICs.

I read katiecharms' post about changing the mining algorithm to stop ASICs and then decide to use an ASIC friendly algorithm if the plan doesn't work.

It will not work, I reckon. The ASICs are coming.

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April 10, 2018, 10:46:46 AM
 #1465

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

Yes 1.1 million AEON was mined in last 8 months. What was not that huge, was way more in first 3 years. But emision is drastically slowing down. There will be way less mined in next 8 months. and then even less in additional 8 months.


Actually in last 8 months 750k BTC was mined. So is not that much off actually.   Bitcoin emision increased 4.4% in last 8 months. AEON emision increased 7% in last 8 months.  That is a difference but not drastic. And AEON will catch BTC before next BTC halving for sure.

What’s more intriguing is the fact that there is the 18.6(?) limit of coins plus tail emission to account for with both AEON and Monero. So you can compare the emissions with both BTC and AEON/XMR, but you must keep in mind that 18.6 mil cap.

What will happen to the coin when the supply reaches the limit?
Will the Aeon network able process transactions without miners?

I understand that this isn't the new question, and it's relevant for any POW-coin. Where I can read reflections on this?
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April 10, 2018, 11:29:16 AM
 #1466

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

Yes 1.1 million AEON was mined in last 8 months. What was not that huge, was way more in first 3 years. But emision is drastically slowing down. There will be way less mined in next 8 months. and then even less in additional 8 months.


Actually in last 8 months 750k BTC was mined. So is not that much off actually.   Bitcoin emision increased 4.4% in last 8 months. AEON emision increased 7% in last 8 months.  That is a difference but not drastic. And AEON will catch BTC before next BTC halving for sure.

What’s more intriguing is the fact that there is the 18.6(?) limit of coins plus tail emission to account for with both AEON and Monero. So you can compare the emissions with both BTC and AEON/XMR, but you must keep in mind that 18.6 mil cap.

What will happen to the coin when the supply reaches the limit?
Will the Aeon network able process transactions without miners?

I understand that this isn't the new question, and it's relevant for any POW-coin. Where I can read reflections on this?

Yeah that’s what the tail emission is for. With Bitcoins supply limit, the theory is is that people will be able to compensate the miners enough through only fees to have their txs included in blocks they mine... for XMR/AEON they have a steady 3 (I think) “tail emission” that goes on forever after the hard limit of (I think) 18.6 million coins have been mined.

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April 10, 2018, 01:07:22 PM
 #1467

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

Yes 1.1 million AEON was mined in last 8 months. What was not that huge, was way more in first 3 years. But emision is drastically slowing down. There will be way less mined in next 8 months. and then even less in additional 8 months.


Actually in last 8 months 750k BTC was mined. So is not that much off actually.   Bitcoin emision increased 4.4% in last 8 months. AEON emision increased 7% in last 8 months.  That is a difference but not drastic. And AEON will catch BTC before next BTC halving for sure.

What’s more intriguing is the fact that there is the 18.6(?) limit of coins plus tail emission to account for with both AEON and Monero. So you can compare the emissions with both BTC and AEON/XMR, but you must keep in mind that 18.6 mil cap.

What will happen to the coin when the supply reaches the limit?
Will the Aeon network able process transactions without miners?

I understand that this isn't the new question, and it's relevant for any POW-coin. Where I can read reflections on this?

With this fork that comes now with rebase we will also add tail emision. So when we reach 18.6 millions coin I think will be in 2024, there will be small tail emision in every block to prevent that network will ever get out of miner reward. What will eventually happen in Bitcoin and most other PoW coins.


@bbc.reporter

I dont know if AEON is big enough tat anyone built ASICS for it.  In future since developers said they will fight ASICS with changing mining algorithm I am sure no one will even plan doing one in future.   It is just unneded risk. They will rather focus in coins where developers dont care about ASIC mining. There are plenty such coins.

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April 10, 2018, 07:51:37 PM
 #1468


With this fork that comes now with rebase we will also add tail emision. So when we reach 18.6 millions coin I think will be in 2024, there will be small tail emision in every block to prevent that network will ever get out of miner reward. What will eventually happen in Bitcoin and most other PoW coins.

Thank You! This is really necessary.


I dont know if AEON is big enough tat anyone built ASICS for it.  In future since developers said they will fight ASICS with changing mining algorithm I am sure no one will even plan doing one in future.   It is just unneded risk. They will rather focus in coins where developers dont care about ASIC mining. There are plenty such coins.

Today I read that after the fork, Bitmain were forced to reduce the price by 5 times for these ASICs. This is definitely a business failure.
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April 11, 2018, 01:04:21 AM
 #1469

@Febo. But there already are ASICs for Aeon. Bitmain's miners can be configured to mine cryptonight light if what I heard is correct.

Then if miners find it profitable to mine Aeon then that's where they will go.

Also, remember the sudden increase in hashrate last year? That might not be botnets, but Bitmain.

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April 11, 2018, 04:08:39 PM
 #1470

@Febo. But there already are ASICs for Aeon. Bitmain's miners can be configured to mine cryptonight light if what I heard is correct.

Then if miners find it profitable to mine Aeon then that's where they will go.

Also, remember the sudden increase in hashrate last year? That might not be botnets, but Bitmain.

Not sure about Bitmain, but Baikal I'm pretty sure.
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April 12, 2018, 06:17:19 PM
 #1471

Over the past week, the complexity has shown mixed dynamics. At beginning of the week was a significant reduction. Is it was mass return to Monero?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-difficulty.html#6m
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April 13, 2018, 12:31:51 AM
 #1472

Over the past week, the complexity has shown mixed dynamics. At beginning of the week was a significant reduction. Is it was mass return to Monero?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-difficulty.html#6m

For a while it become more profitable than ETH and ZEC, which brought over some miners. It seems to have reach a somewhat steady state for now at about 450 MH.
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April 13, 2018, 12:54:51 AM
 #1473

I am mining AEON coin using the minergate using CPU mining only. I hope that AEON coin will be more profitable as for now mining with AEON coin is not profitable so I have to stop mining.
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April 13, 2018, 10:48:44 AM
 #1474

I am mining AEON coin using the minergate using CPU mining only. I hope that AEON coin will be more profitable as for now mining with AEON coin is not profitable so I have to stop mining.

You should try mining it with some other miner then minergate., Many people had bad experiences with minergate. Getting less hash or not getting paid.

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you said what now?


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April 13, 2018, 03:39:31 PM
 #1475

I am mining AEON coin using the minergate using CPU mining only. I hope that AEON coin will be more profitable as for now mining with AEON coin is not profitable so I have to stop mining.

Yeah Minergate are known scammers who will skim hashes

xmranon on twitter/reddit.
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April 13, 2018, 08:18:03 PM
Last edit: April 14, 2018, 07:33:46 AM by SparkIt
 #1476

Hi!

I studied the formula of calculation the Block reward:

(M−A) / (218) / (1012) where M = 264 −1 and A = supply mined to date.[3]

Input data:
Total Supply (264 −1): 18 446 744
Block time: 240 seconds
Blocks per day: 360


The results posted in the main AEON topic.  Click to go to the post


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April 14, 2018, 01:06:08 AM
 #1477

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.

Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.
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April 14, 2018, 02:16:15 AM
 #1478

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.

Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.


How was the amount for Monero chosen? Is it a function of fees per tx and number of txs that will fit in the block? Since the block is dynamic does the 0.3 per minute put an effective max block size on the system?
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April 14, 2018, 03:16:25 AM
 #1479

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.

Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.


How was the amount for Monero chosen?

It was chosen as a round number a little below 1%

Quote
Is it a function of fees per tx and number of txs that will fit in the block? Since the block is dynamic does the 0.3 per minute put an effective max block size on the system?

No, the fees scale with the block size.


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April 14, 2018, 07:28:17 AM
 #1480

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.


Thank You for important comment! I corrected my conclusion.


Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.


I apologize for the duplication, was a little excited. Fixed.
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