*Assuming* bASIC and BFL ship around the start of December.

By the end of Decemeber, I expect bASIC to have shipped all units .

...it will require at least a 7 days of 8-10 hour days,

~800 * 54 = 43 TH/s (assuming bASIC performance stays at 54GH/s..it will most likely be higher)

BFL has more orders and more man power...let's be really conservative and say they ship 75GH/s in Dec.

thats 43 + 75 + 22 = 140 TH/S bare minimum

So that IS ~7X difficulty from day ONE for Avalon customers. I believe your "conservative" ramp up numbers are not conservative enough.

Regardless, I'd say a very "conservative" guess is that within 3 months of Avalon's release, difficulty will be over 10X (IMO, easily). Long terms calculations should begin a minimum of 10X.

Everyone has been saying time-to-ship is the most important factor...well I'd like to look slightly further out than 3 months. The most that I can conservatively plan for is 6-10 months. Who knows what the landscape will be like several months from now.

My outlook for the short-medium term is 10x-30x difficulty. All 3 major offerings will be profitable during this time...how profitable depends on power cost.

Since BFL has published (confident) power numbers...let's use them as a baseline.

Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 60W = $0.14

Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 100W = $0.29

Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 200W = $0.48

Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 400W = $0.96

Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 60W = $0.36

Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 100W = $0.60

Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 200W = $1.20

Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 400W = $2.40

25 BTC/block @ 30M difficulty @ $12 USD/BTC = $12.07 / day

Let's look at how much profit is effected by power

using 60W as baseline

Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 60W = baseline is 0% more profitable

Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 100W = baseline is 1.27% more profitable

Cost per day @ $0.10 @ 200W = baseline is 2.94% more profitable

Cost per day @ $0.10 @

**400W** = baseline is 7.38% more profitable

Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 60W = baseline is 0% more profitable

Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 100W = baseline is 2.09% more profitable

Cost per day @ $0.25 @ 200W = baseline is 7.72% more profitable

Cost per day @ $0.25 @

**400W** = baseline is 21.10% more profitable

Obviously, as difficulty goes up, profitability goes

~~up~~down. As such, the affect of power usage on profitable also goes up.

Some people might say 5% is nothing...we tip pool operators that much. Others are trying to maximize every penny. Granted, Avalon now claims a 10% edge in hashing power (over BFL)...I am uncertain how long that edge will last. Both bASIC and BFL have stated that there is (perhaps significant) room for improvement here.

I have orders from each of the big 3, so I'm not trying to bash Avalon here. As a customer I just want a great product that will give me a decent bang for my buck.

BFL offers good hash rate with lower power.

bASIC offers good $/GH...still waiting for power numbers.

Avalon still has good $/GH (with bumped specs)....still waiting for power numbers.

I tried to diversify for the first run of ASICs, but if/when I decide to order more units...I'm looking for the best bang for the buck going forward.