RealBitcoin (OP)
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February 22, 2016, 08:55:08 AM |
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Mathematics guarantees that when you bet on infinitely, a time comes when you lose your bankroll. You cannot win in the long run, because if you win, you are to play again.... till you lose.
But there is no infinity in reality. In the finite 75 years we live, this scenario I described is totally possible, so much that it could have already happened. There are millions of casinos worldwide, the odds of this happening is pretty likely in one of them, and it's so strange that people wouldnt even know if its true or not. If you put 1 million gamblers in front of a slot machine with a 1 million $ bankroll. And for easyness sake have a 0.5% house edge, and let them gamble 1 year straight, every day for 5-6 hours. I guarantee you that a few gamblers will come out net profitable at the end of the year, it's just inevitable.
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TwitchySeal
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February 22, 2016, 08:56:10 AM |
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Yes gambling can be profitable in the long run. It is a mathematical possibility. I`m not a gambling shill, but i`m very frustrated when people put out misleading information. The truth is important. It is only "long" run when you lose it lol. Mathematics guarantees that when you bet on infinitely, a time comes when you lose your bankroll. You cannot win in the long run, because if you win, you are to play again.... till you lose. Unless you are able to make winning bets and manage your bankroll properly. Mathematics guarantees that when you bet on infinitely, a time comes when you lose your bankroll. You cannot win in the long run, because if you win, you are to play again.... till you lose.
But there is no infinity in reality. In the finite 75 years we live, this scenario I described is totally possible, so much that it could have already happened. There are millions of casinos worldwide, the odds of this happening is pretty likely in one of them, and it's so strange that people wouldnt even know if its true or not. If you put 1 million gamblers in front of a slot machine with a 1 million $ bankroll. And for easyness sake have a 0.5% house edge, and let them gamble 1 year straight, every day for 5-6 hours. I guarantee you that a few gamblers will come out net profitable at the end of the year, it's just inevitable. I wouldn't be so sure about that. How much are they actually betting , and how volatile are the slot machines? (The less variance, the more likely none of them will be a winner after playing for ~2,000 hours. Math tells us about what is likely or unlikely to happen next. Luck is a way to describe what has already happened.
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Mars110
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February 22, 2016, 09:05:43 AM |
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I believe gambling can not be profitable even in long run. It is not at all possible to develop your skills against the bots. May be profitable if you play against another player. You can beat another gambler but not definitely a gambling bot.
Do you think there really is a point. But gambling keep on gambling, In gambling will only give an advantage to those win/already know very well the gameplay out of gambling against bots or against other gamblers. But sometimes there is also gambling that bots doing the cheating, but I'm sure that bots already trusted gambling will not be cheating to gamblers. Gambling it has an option that is who knows the weaknesses of gambling is sure he will get a big reward (Win) and vice versa, if gamblers gambling kelamahan does not know it is certain he will get a whopping (Loss)
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Shinpako09
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February 22, 2016, 10:18:58 AM |
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I believe gambling can not be profitable even in long run. It is not at all possible to develop your skills against the bots. May be profitable if you play against another player. You can beat another gambler but not definitely a gambling bot.
You are never playing against a gambling bot lol, rather you are playing against a site whose bankroll is too big to be won and yours is too small to be kept away from loosing. I see people martingale and laugh at them, because they are having small bankroll yet they think they can win the big bankroll of the site. Martingale is just plain stupid, you cannot use it anyway because they have betting size limits. And its also a foolish strategy because your risk always increases. but still the most widely used strategy until now even if they know that this strat really sucks. They still used it despite of how many times they loss they still continue using it.
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darewaller
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February 22, 2016, 10:37:53 AM |
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for now i have a profit on 0.23 btc by gambling, so yes its possible but its still risky you don't know about you lose the next bet, ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Yes and thats where the long term came into play, I am sure if you bet too long then surely will end up on the loosing side. But well, some people never understand and not get happy with short term wins so often than they should not.
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CasioK
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February 22, 2016, 10:40:55 AM |
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for now i have a profit on 0.23 btc by gambling, so yes its possible but its still risky you don't know about you lose the next bet, ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Yes and thats where the long term came into play, I am sure if you bet too long then surely will end up on the loosing side. But well, some people never understand and not get happy with short term wins so often than they should not. You are right when people find profits in either short term or long term, they must find the joy of winning and should withdraw some profits to make sure in reducing risks. If they aim for long run, there is no guarantee for profits in future.
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INVALID BBCODE: close of unopened tag in table (1)
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Hashminers
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February 22, 2016, 12:46:31 PM |
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for now i have a profit on 0.23 btc by gambling, so yes its possible but its still risky you don't know about you lose the next bet, ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Yes and thats where the long term came into play, I am sure if you bet too long then surely will end up on the loosing side. But well, some people never understand and not get happy with short term wins so often than they should not. You are right, many people think they can win big when they are gambling but this is not true at all. They will lose all their money at the end and also getting addicted in the most cases because they want to win their money back what is not gonna happen.
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Mars110
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February 22, 2016, 12:52:37 PM |
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for now i have a profit on 0.23 btc by gambling, so yes its possible but its still risky you don't know about you lose the next bet, ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Yes and thats where the long term came into play, I am sure if you bet too long then surely will end up on the loosing side. But well, some people never understand and not get happy with short term wins so often than they should not. You are right, many people think they can win big when they are gambling but this is not true at all. They will lose all their money at the end and also getting addicted in the most cases because they want to win their money back what is not gonna happen. That is certainly true. But gambling is also having a positive impact although the negative effects much more than positive impact. It can be minimized negative impact as small as possible, with the way you have to have a strategy and a good thought. If you have it, the defeat is merely a wishful thinking for you and the triumph of the real thing for you.
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TwitchySeal
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February 22, 2016, 12:57:19 PM |
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are you guys all the same person talking to yourself?
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coinplus
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February 22, 2016, 01:26:18 PM |
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I believe gambling can not be profitable even in long run. It is not at all possible to develop your skills against the bots. May be profitable if you play against another player. You can beat another gambler but not definitely a gambling bot.
You are never playing against a gambling bot lol, rather you are playing against a site whose bankroll is too big to be won and yours is too small to be kept away from loosing. I see people martingale and laugh at them, because they are having small bankroll yet they think they can win the big bankroll of the site. Very right, but I do not agree with the second part. See gambling is all luck based thing and hence if you are lucky and doing martingale you may end up winning good part of site's bankroll. So, nothing as bad in that from my point of view.
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jacee
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February 22, 2016, 01:33:21 PM |
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Gambling can only be profitable for those who knows how to play. There are people who actually take gambling so seriously that they will be more than willing to risk all that they have to take profit from gambling but I hardly see people who successfully did it. They may win some but as far as I can see the percentage of loses are still greater.
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BTCPerDay
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February 22, 2016, 01:42:00 PM |
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Gambling can only be profitable for those who knows how to play. There are people who actually take gambling so seriously that they will be more than willing to risk all that they have to take profit from gambling but I hardly see people who successfully did it. They may win some but as far as I can see the percentage of loses are still greater.
You got right mate
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voztata
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February 22, 2016, 01:51:05 PM |
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I believe gambling can not be profitable even in long run. It is not at all possible to develop your skills against the bots. May be profitable if you play against another player. You can beat another gambler but not definitely a gambling bot.
You are never playing against a gambling bot lol, rather you are playing against a site whose bankroll is too big to be won and yours is too small to be kept away from loosing. I see people martingale and laugh at them, because they are having small bankroll yet they think they can win the big bankroll of the site. Martingale is just plain stupid, you cannot use it anyway because they have betting size limits. And its also a foolish strategy because your risk always increases. You are right, even most sites have limit around 10 BTC and I am not sure anyone would be doing martingale with 10 BTC in a single bet. Yes, though it is highly foolishness that people call martingale as one of the best strategies though it is not.
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safari88
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February 22, 2016, 01:56:27 PM |
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I believe gambling can not be profitable even in long run. It is not at all possible to develop your skills against the bots. May be profitable if you play against another player. You can beat another gambler but not definitely a gambling bot.
You are never playing against a gambling bot lol, rather you are playing against a site whose bankroll is too big to be won and yours is too small to be kept away from loosing. I see people martingale and laugh at them, because they are having small bankroll yet they think they can win the big bankroll of the site. Martingale is just plain stupid, you cannot use it anyway because they have betting size limits. And its also a foolish strategy because your risk always increases. You are right, even most sites have limit around 10 BTC and I am not sure anyone would be doing martingale with 10 BTC in a single bet. Yes, though it is highly foolishness that people call martingale as one of the best strategies though it is not. regardless of your capital or above 100 BTC if using the martingale nonetheless it is not a good strategy. I prefer single bet and it's better if you have a big capital.
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el kaka22
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February 22, 2016, 02:14:58 PM |
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I believe gambling can not be profitable even in long run. It is not at all possible to develop your skills against the bots. May be profitable if you play against another player. You can beat another gambler but not definitely a gambling bot.
You are never playing against a gambling bot lol, rather you are playing against a site whose bankroll is too big to be won and yours is too small to be kept away from loosing. I see people martingale and laugh at them, because they are having small bankroll yet they think they can win the big bankroll of the site. Martingale is just plain stupid, you cannot use it anyway because they have betting size limits. And its also a foolish strategy because your risk always increases. Even your risk increases with every loosing bet, you will be able to recover all your losses with one winning bet. I have tried Martingale with my manual dice gambling, it is highly profitable for me, but not with my automated dicing.
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RealBitcoin (OP)
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February 22, 2016, 02:33:30 PM |
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I wouldn't be so sure about that. How much are they actually betting , and how volatile are the slot machines? (The less variance, the more likely none of them will be a winner after playing for ~2,000 hours.
Math tells us about what is likely or unlikely to happen next.
Luck is a way to describe what has already happened.
Ok math fine. What is the probability of ending up 0 or winner after 2500 bets? Thats how much you would be in 1 say year. Well if the slot machine has a hose edge of 0.5%, then each bet is 49.5% chance of winning. However you have a 99.5% chance of shuffling the money around and not giving it to the casino. So if there would be no house edge you would have a 100% chance of ending up breakeven in infinity, but in our logic the house edge is what drains away our money So after 2500, bets you`d have a 0.00036116184612908900% chance of ending up at least break even. That means that in a pool of 1 million players we`d have on average 361 players that would end up winners after the 2500 bets!
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phreaky
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February 22, 2016, 02:43:36 PM |
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It is possible, but you need to be very very lucky. You have a higher chance that you lose more money than you win money, so that wont be good. Most people lose so much money that they are becoming poor.
And that is not good, they realize it too late.
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TwitchySeal
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February 22, 2016, 03:07:50 PM |
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So after 2500, bets you`d have a 0.00036116184612908900% chance of ending up at least break even.
That means that in a pool of 1 million players we`d have on average 361 players that would end up winners after the 2500 bets!
If the house edge is 1% then we are winning 49.5% and losing 50.5% (these slot machines are the same as flipping a coin, btw) Playing 6 hours a day every day for a year for a total of 2500 bets then we would be making less than 1 bet an hour. This is not a big sample size, and these "coin flip" type bets are very low variance. But, here are the results: (I did 10,000 instead of 1 million bc it takes a while to do 1million.) So 10,000 players each made 2500 $100 bets. They won 49.5% and lost 50.5% The theoretical expectation is that 3,405 players will be ahead after 2500 bets. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F9c1868791d5259992a63ae60b8214889.png&t=665&c=LNsrDLK7OdiwVw) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F8e4053f5ac2eab2923cb2af2b51d88cb.png&t=665&c=Z6_gGJVijj4EqA)
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23dzmaz
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February 22, 2016, 03:14:38 PM |
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It''s really possible imo. Especially if you have big bankroll, not greedy and have a good mentality. I mean not rage and doubling or more your bets when you losing your bets.
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RealBitcoin (OP)
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February 22, 2016, 10:46:56 PM |
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So after 2500, bets you`d have a 0.00036116184612908900% chance of ending up at least break even.
That means that in a pool of 1 million players we`d have on average 361 players that would end up winners after the 2500 bets!
If the house edge is 1% then we are winning 49.5% and losing 50.5% (these slot machines are the same as flipping a coin, btw) Playing 6 hours a day every day for a year for a total of 2500 bets then we would be making less than 1 bet an hour. This is not a big sample size, and these "coin flip" type bets are very low variance. But, here are the results: (I did 10,000 instead of 1 million bc it takes a while to do 1million.) So 10,000 players each made 2500 $100 bets. They won 49.5% and lost 50.5% The theoretical expectation is that 3,405 players will be ahead after 2500 bets. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F9c1868791d5259992a63ae60b8214889.png&t=665&c=LNsrDLK7OdiwVw) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gyazo.com%2F8e4053f5ac2eab2923cb2af2b51d88cb.png&t=665&c=Z6_gGJVijj4EqA) Actually it's 49 - 51 isnt it?
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