I think decred is not ready for the competition yet.
I think governance can be a killer app if done correct so DCR can be a sleeping giant like some people say.
I like decred a lot and it is a big portion of my portofolio, but im also worried a lot because;
The fundamentals are pretty negative atm if you ask me;
1) miners are dual mining and making a lot sell pressure.
2) Tickets fee are skyrocketing on low ticket price giving the miners a lot of extra fee ever block (approx 0,25 dcr a ticket)
3) A huge rise of x20
Beside that i think also that because all the sell pressure its not even worth keeping the coins locked in POS and that can be a serieus problem.
Cause how can you get democrazy like this. You can lock your coins for 2,5 to 3% but the coin makes swings of 40% in that same period.
That makes is insane risky for the people that buy the coins around this price.
The 28 day on avarage lock is just a lot, would be much better if the tickets where cheaper and the lockdown/reward were lower.
Example instead of 5 tickets 10 will be picked this lowers the waiting time, and lower the reward you get to composate for the same pos supply.
Beside the fundamental i also think there should be more like a aim for the coin. Now its a coin in the middle.
Obvious its mostly focussed on being a payment system, but there are a lot coins out there like that so thats a really hard market to crack.
XEM is a great example aiming for enterprise so at least people know what they need to market.
Ofcourse a coin with governance can go every way that people vote for but first the coin need to get usage so it can increase in value, this is more
important than people know. Think about dev subsidy and developers joining etc.
I'm not sure I would say the fundamentals are pretty negative...
1. Claymore's dual miner got everyone and their grandmother interested in mining DCR for extra profit. Obviously most of these ETH miners don't see the value of the coin, so have been steadily dumping...
That miner, however, has brought a fair amount of attention to the project. A lot of people who otherwise wouldn't have found out about it, now know a little about it, or at least that it exists.
I think Claymore's miner causing this sell pressure was a FANTASTIC thing for this project. It gave all us early adopters ample time to accumulate. I know I did...
2. The developers are consistently working to better this project and they are very intelligent people.
Staking difficulty is going to be upgraded shortly... As long as we vote for it. Mining algorithm changes will come and go relatively frequently, as needs always change over time. The reason we are here is because this coin has that ability to implement change better than any other platform. The ability to adapt is required for success.
3. The rise has been primarily due to more investors due to increased exposure. Whales and traders had a reasonable part to play in this as well...
That said, there's less than 5% of the supply on sell orders presently... Not a large % of the market are in wallets on Exchanges, which means that once people start buying, the value can, will and has gone up EXTREMELY quickly.
There's just not much for sale...
