Bitfury: "16nm... sales to public start shortly"

[Biodom]

Re container: probably a good deal if it costs 1-2mil and you have spare 2MW available.
I calculate that with halving coming and assuming just 2X difficulty increase until july 1 and 2X difficulty increase from July1 to Dec31 maximum bitcoin revenue would be somewhere between $4-5 mil in 12mo and ~$0.9-1.8 mil in electricity cost per year (first number for $0.05/kwh and second for $0.1/kwh).
However, who knows how much difficulty will increase. On the upside, price can increase and bail you out.
I wonder if anybody on the forum have access to 2mW?

I have access to 2MW.

and how will you handle  2MW of heat?

I see the top of that container and its fans giving off 4 million btus on the low end and 8 million btus on the high end

the container has about 40 by 10 foot area  so my heat disposal estimates tell me the fans won't be able to move 8 million  btus .  if anyone can tell me more info on this I would love to hear about the heat from those fans.

Maybe forum members should pitch in and form a co-op or LLC to buy one of these 2mW containers hosted at Dalkore if he is interested.
Perhaps 100 shares/slots with some trustworthy individual like Phil to handle payouts.
I can envision people able to invest $10K (maybe 15k or so) participating.
Of course, we would need to know the exact numbers and guarantees as it might be rather thin margins over the whole time.
1/100 of 16ph=160 Th. Right now you pay $34k for that much hashing power, so projecting forward the price for container should be realistically around 1 mil, and not significantly more.
There are too many moving parts, but it could be done, I guess.

[cryptotore]

Philip: Wouldn't is be possible with immersion cooling with 3M novec 7000 in a 2 phase system?

[brontosaurus]

1. They are losing a lot of money or are under pressure from their investors to make more and need to
    make it up from the suckers, sorry, customers who are desperate to get their paws on the wonder chip

They are not.

Dogie, you're great with these short sentences which subtly suggest inside knowledge, but nless you have access to Bitfurys detailed management accounts then you have no idea what's actually going on, have you?. Yes, they have 16% of the network capacity which should make them about $6m a month net of power costs at BTC=$400, but they have a lot of mouths to feed - just look at the number of executive officers - 12 of them (!) plus another 5 board members and good knows how many hangers on not to mention the actual workers. Then they have to finance development and running costs and presumably they have raised $60M + by making some very challenging promises to their backers.

Why do you think they are selling their Golden Geese?  

[abokhalel2]

Punin's gotten in touch with me. There's no feasible way I'll get a million bucks but he's working on making small orders possible (if only in a roundabout way) which is definitely nice.

Good news. I would love to purchase some of your products with these chips.

[brontosaurus]

Like everything that Bitfury announces you have to read very carefully, I refer to: "We understand it will be nearly impossible for any older technology to compete .......". The 'nearly' is the giveaway, despite their strange announcement about 'every transistor on the new chip being laid out by hand' they know that ultimately their solution, for one reason or another, has not worked exactly to plan and that a good full custom 28nm design can beat the crap out of it. Such solutions exist.

 How is every transistor on the new chip being laid out by hand a "strange announcement"? Hello, welcome to the definition of FULL CUSTOM DESIGN.

Care to explain how a full-custom 28nm design like the BM1385 used in the S7 can compete effectively after the halfing against a chip that has demonstrated over twice the efficiency and should still be PROFITABLE by then (it's looking more and more likely that the S7 is going to hit "unprofitable" shortly before the halfing unless you have VERY VERY cheap or FREE electric).

BitFury's real competiton for their new chip isn't going to be 28nm. It is going to be the upcomming A3, and at some point probably a 14/16nm full-custom chip from Bitmain, and possibly 1 or 2 others eventually going with full-custom at 14/16nm.

I get fed up saying this but people should read a lot more before shooting their mouths off. No one has laid a chip out by hand since the late 1970's - probably about the time your parents were born. This statement was just another piece of bullshit from Bitfury trying to make their chip sound 'special' in some way.

If you want some real, actual informed data about what full custom actually entails then I'm happy to recommend some very good books to you to help reduce your level of ignorance, you clearly don't really understand what full custom means or entails or what good engineers can do with it.

I'll bet that Bitmain make a lot of money on their S7's and could probably reduce it's price to sub $600 and still make a profit, so they have no real need in the near future to make a new chip (although I'm sure they will). They'll continue to make money on their 28nm cash cow for some time. They might even conjure up a containerised system of their own......

[sidehack]

I was told last spring that BM1384 could be had by the batch for $2.50 per chip. Assuming they still have some profit on that, and if BM1385 cost about the same to make, a 45-chip S7 would have under $300 worth of ASIC. Not sure what everything else would cost, but I was betting three months ago that they could sell for $600 and still profit (on materials, not necessarily chip dev costs).

[philipma1957]

Philip: Wouldn't is be possible with immersion cooling with 3M novec 7000 in a 2 phase system?

okay we know that immersion lets you make the chips more dense.

but no matter what the tank of coolant is sooner of later it reaches its max in heat storage.  that is why you have fans to toss that heat away.

I see 16 fans  on the container  

those fans are 3 to 4 feet wide  lets say 4

here are the fans you need

http://trianglefans.com/jet-upblast/

http://trianglefans.com/jd/

they have some 42 inch models that will move 30,000 cfm

 I guess 16 of them would work as that is about 500,000 cfm

the avalon6 uses 200cfm to move heat from 1kwatt  and 2000 avalon6's use 2 mega watts so

2000 x 200 = 400,000 cfm  So I guess the air could be moved

[dogie]

Why do you think they are selling their Golden Geese?  

Because it makes more money. The more of your own equipment you put on the network, the lower your returns.

The first miner competes 0% against yourself. After 10% of the network, your miners compete against themselves 10% of the time [shitty metric but its a visualization]. At 50% of the network, the next miner turned on competes half against the rest of the network and half against your own miners, significantly reducing its potential income. But if you distribute hashing power to everyone, you can keep your network percentage lower (and so miner returns better), while also recouping 100% of the theoretical mining earnings by selling the rights to those earnings.

[toptek]

Why do you think they are selling their Golden Geese?  

Because it makes more money. The more of your own equipment you put on the network, the lower your returns.

The first miner competes 0% against yourself. After 10% of the network, your miners compete against themselves 10% of the time [shitty metric but its a visualization]. At 50% of the network, the next miner turned on competes half against the rest of the network and half against your own miners, significantly reducing its potential income.

yea if that's true , which it is, and that's how it's suppose to work but do you really think they will keep it up after they get what they want ? or even gonna do it ? or it's all BS there feeding us . The fact they stopped selling to the public at all is kind of question able after they got what they wanted then.  but what rights 100% of the theoretical mining earnings by selling the rights to those earnings . explain how they have that right if bitcoin are meant to be free and for everyone ,by free I mean not under one groups control,  i understand they have to make back what they put in to it but what rights. you either sell it or you don't, there is no in between in this case . and you can bet they were backed by paper money not bitcoins at some point and will be mostly from banks etc or they are Polly hoping to .

KNC, all over again. but this time with bitfury, I guess the good thing bitfury at least backs what they sell so far . why i don't believe them is a blog some one @ bitfury made about things that happen to his family years ago. if he really meant it then sell to everyone no one is asking for a free ride that i see here just a peace of the pie and are willing to pay a reason able price. he didn't and they will do what ever suits them and hurt the miners .  as a  few others said bitmain could have sold there S7 for 600 or even less and polly sold more and made more if they could have kept up with the supply and demand at a lower price but as it stands it seems they hard a enough time even at the beginning s7 price.and if bitmain buys into this crap, were done .

Sorry, i  just can''t resist saying what i think about bitfury any more to much stuff seems like lies at this point .

 Anyway, i can go on on bottom line is we will be very lucky to see any of it, if your not rich. for the rich it won't mater to much they just get richer .I knew a rich person once before he died my mom was dating it was nothing to him to lose 10 k or more,  he called it a inconvenience, left some of it to my mom, but his sister got control over it all, we got nothing, she got it all . not that we needed it .he had a few mill in assets .
 
CYA

[adaseb]

Suppose you have a million of these ASIC chips.

You can build a thousand different miners using all million chips on your own but you will double/triple the entire network hashrate and make 1/3 of what you are making now.

However if you only use 25% of the chips, and slowly and slowly turn your hardware online, you are making 3x as much with 25% of the chips, and you can sell the other 75%. And since the difficulty is still low, you sell it at a high premium.

I am sure they did the math and realized it would be more profitable to sell some to the public then mine on your own solo.

[toptek]

 you actually trust that go for it ..   time will tell if we get any i hope to eat these words well see. . as i said I heard off till now when they came with that big container and no word on home miners etc. it just seems like they only want the big bucks. screw the rest.


don't try to show me different they have to. I did say that's how it's suppose to work and agree that is the way to do it, go slow we have time , but don't Agree  with how to go  slow  . but what right to sell those earning to some one. nothing is anyone's right to that extent,  right now im saving for one or two of these if they happen, not the container i have no place for it nor want one or could ever afford it and if i could afford one, I'm not so sure i would want one it might hurt the network, i do care more then about how much it makes.


cya  

[dogie]

However if you only use 25% of the chips

And now your NRE costs make your chips 'cost' 3-4x more.

And since the difficulty is still low

Which it isn't because you aren't the only source of chips, progress or miners, meanwhile you earn less and less of the network while the rest of your chips devalue for absolutely no reason.

[sidehack]

If you only use 25% of the chips, and sell off the rest, your NRE didn't change the cost at all. But your fourth of the chips are up and running before the other three fourths, so you get an edge on the diff rise caused by your chips. And if your markup on chips is at least 33%, you basically paid for your fourth of the chips from the profit of selling off the other three fourths, which means you recoup the whole investment up front and still get to mine on your fourth for just the cost of miner assembly and power. You do earn less and less as the rest of your chips (and everyone else's) come online, but your machines are already paid off and profiting by then.

[2112]

I get fed up saying this but people should read a lot more before shooting their mouths off. No one has laid a chip out by hand since the late 1970's - probably about the time your parents were born. This statement was just another piece of bullshit from Bitfury trying to make their chip sound 'special' in some way.

I, on the other hand, would put this to a combination of "figure of speech" and "language difference".

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C

One way of translating English "director" to Russian would be "pyкoвoдитeль", which in turn translated literally back to English would mean "the one that leads by the hand". In many Slavic languages the equivalents of English "by hand" and "manually" have much wider, figurative use. For example the title of this old thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49971.0 "Algorithmically placed FPGA miner" could be translated to Russian and back to English as "Hand tailored (or Hand cut) FPGA miner". Somewhat more humorously, some not-that-well translated software documentation uses the above Russian word for the "device driver".

Even native English speaker constantly communicating with bilingual or multilingual people will subconsciously pick up their speech patterns and figures. My favorite example is: the equivalent of English "all thumbs" in several other European languages is "two left hands". Both of those phrases aren't meant to be literal, they are just figures of speech describing a person lacking in manual dexterity.

So my guess is that the PR blurb-writer picked up this hyperbole from the native speakers of Slavic languages who only know English as their 2nd language.

Edit: I've forgotten to add that the in my favorite example to cognitive adaptation is not only linguistic but also involves the associated hand gestures. The "all thumbs" is gestured by curling 8 non-thumb fingers at the knuckles to match the length of the thumbs. The "two left hands" is gestured with showing both hands with thumbs pointing to the left.

[QuintLeo]

Philip: Wouldn't is be possible with immersion cooling with 3M novec 7000 in a 2 phase system?

okay we know that immersion lets you make the chips more dense.

but no matter what the tank of coolant is sooner of later it reaches its max in heat storage.  that is why you have fans to toss that heat away.

I see 16 fans  on the container  

those fans are 3 to 4 feet wide  lets say 4

here are the fans you need

http://trianglefans.com/jet-upblast/

http://trianglefans.com/jd/

they have some 42 inch models that will move 30,000 cfm

 I guess 16 of them would work as that is about 500,000 cfm

the avalon6 uses 200cfm to move heat from 1kwatt  and 2000 avalon6's use 2 mega watts so

2000 x 200 = 400,000 cfm  So I guess the air could be moved

 It's more about being able to move ENOUGH air to keep the radiators cool enough to dissapate the heat - we're not looking at direct air cooking which tends to need a LOT more airflow to work.

 Radiator on many common trucks or mid-to-high-power cars is designed to dissipate over 150KW out of about a 2 foot square area, for example - though that's when hauling a large load or accellerating hard or travelling at fairly high speed. Most of the time, the thing is loafing with the thermostat part-closed....

[QuintLeo]

Like everything that Bitfury announces you have to read very carefully, I refer to: "We understand it will be nearly impossible for any older technology to compete .......". The 'nearly' is the giveaway, despite their strange announcement about 'every transistor on the new chip being laid out by hand' they know that ultimately their solution, for one reason or another, has not worked exactly to plan and that a good full custom 28nm design can beat the crap out of it. Such solutions exist.

 How is every transistor on the new chip being laid out by hand a "strange announcement"? Hello, welcome to the definition of FULL CUSTOM DESIGN.

Care to explain how a full-custom 28nm design like the BM1385 used in the S7 can compete effectively after the halfing against a chip that has demonstrated over twice the efficiency and should still be PROFITABLE by then (it's looking more and more likely that the S7 is going to hit "unprofitable" shortly before the halfing unless you have VERY VERY cheap or FREE electric).

BitFury's real competiton for their new chip isn't going to be 28nm. It is going to be the upcomming A3, and at some point probably a 14/16nm full-custom chip from Bitmain, and possibly 1 or 2 others eventually going with full-custom at 14/16nm.

I get fed up saying this but people should read a lot more before shooting their mouths off. No one has laid a chip out by hand since the late 1970's - probably about the time your parents were born. This statement was just another piece of bullshit from Bitfury trying to make their chip sound 'special' in some way.

If you want some real, actual informed data about what full custom actually entails then I'm happy to recommend some very good books to you to help reduce your level of ignorance, you clearly don't really understand what full custom means or entails or what good engineers can do with it.

I'll bet that Bitmain make a lot of money on their S7's and could probably reduce it's price to sub $600 and still make a profit, so they have no real need in the near future to make a new chip (although I'm sure they will). They'll continue to make money on their 28nm cash cow for some time. They might even conjure up a containerised system of their own......

 Hint.

 *I* was born quite a bit before the 1970s - in fact, I was already in the Navy by the "late 1970s".

 Gratuitous insults with zero factual basis just make YOU look stupid and make people tend to ignore anything else you have to say.


 
 You might want to keep "lead time" in mind - Bitmain certainly is, since they announced that they were already working on a 14/16nm design in the SAME ANNOUNCEMENT where they originally announced the S7.
 Doesn't mean they won't keep selling as many of their current design as they can while it's still profitable to do so, but if they were to wait to start designing the next generation like Avalon has already said they plan to do, Bitmain wouldn't have anything to compete for a long time.



 BTW - you STILL haven't addressed my question about how Bitmain (or whoever) is supposed to be competative to the 14/16nm gear after the halfing kills the profitability on anything less efficient.

[Biodom]

I get fed up saying this but people should read a lot more before shooting their mouths off. No one has laid a chip out by hand since the late 1970's - probably about the time your parents were born. This statement was just another piece of bullshit from Bitfury trying to make their chip sound 'special' in some way.

I, on the other hand, would put this to a combination of "figure of speech" and "language difference".

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C

One way of translating English "director" to Russian would be "pyкoвoдитeль", which in turn translated literally back to English would mean "the one that leads by the hand". In many Slavic languages the equivalents of English "by hand" and "manually" have much wider, figurative use. For example the title of this old thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49971.0 "Algorithmically placed FPGA miner" could be translated to Russian and back to English as "Hand tailored (or Hand cut) FPGA miner". Somewhat more humorously, some not-that-well translated software documentation uses the above Russian word for the "device driver".

Even native English speaker constantly communicating with bilingual or multilingual people will subconsciously pick up their speech patterns and figures. My favorite example is: the equivalent of English "all thumbs" in several other European languages is "two left hands". Both of those phrases aren't meant to be literal, they are just figures of speech describing a person lacking in manual dexterity.

So my guess is that the PR blurb-writer picked up this hyperbole from the native speakers of Slavic languages who only know English as their 2nd language.

Edit: I've forgotten to add that the in my favorite example to cognitive adaptation is not only linguistic but also involves the associated hand gestures. The "all thumbs" is gestured by curling 8 non-thumb fingers at the knuckles to match the length of the thumbs. The "two left hands" is gestured with showing both hands with thumbs pointing to the left.

not sure what you guys are talking about, but PR simply states "full custom design"

interestingly, for "all thumbs" in Russian good translation would be a literal equivalent of "without hands (бeзpyкий)" or "curly/bent/not straight hands (кpивopyкий)".
Google translate cannot handle the last one without some funny confusion.

[dogie]

not sure what you guys are talking about, but PR simply states "full custom design"

It was mentioned in the CEO's blog that all transistors were laid out by hand.

[one4many]

not sure what you guys are talking about, but PR simply states "full custom design"

It was mentioned in the CEO's blog that all transistors were laid out by hand.

They probably meant the surrounding transistors, around the chip. 

[Biodom]

not sure what you guys are talking about, but PR simply states "full custom design"

It was mentioned in the CEO's blog that all transistors were laid out by hand.

I searched CEO blog post (keep calm and ...) with "by hand"-no results.
Care to give a link? Thanks
BTW, V. Vavilov is CEO, Punin is CTO