How will halving affect the value?

[Amph]

@amph, the block reward was higher, but it was also worth considerably less than it is now. Back then $50 was a good price - a 50 BTC block reward was worth £2500 (50 x 50). Now $450 is an OK price, and a 25 BTC block reward is worth $11250. Then and now, there were/are miners operating at the margin, miners who did/will drop out at the next difficulty increase because they were/are barely profitable. Difficulty has always worked to make sure that mining is driven by efficiency - that less efficient miners are less profitable or unprofitable. There's no guarantee of huge profits, except through being more efficient than your competitors.

the diff was also much lower than what it is now, i cna argue that it was more profitable to mine bitcoin back then, not to mention that it is always better to have more coins per day at a lower price than the opposite

this because you can speculate more in the future, like it actually happened, those mienrs are now rich if they did not screwed their earning back then...

Difficulty was significantly lower than it is now, sure. That doesn't mean mining was more profitable, it means that profitable miners then were more profitable than profitable miners now (for some miners, then and now, mining is not profitable). Mining has always been unprofitable for some miners - that's the engine that drives difficulty changes, and ultimately efficiency.

it was more easy to speculate back then, in the sense that since the value was really low an icrease in value was more expected with a far greater factor than what we have nowadays(we still need to match the x25-30 increase that appeared in 2011-2012, for example...)

like i said it far better to have 100 coins a day at $1 each than 0.1 a day at $1k each...

[LMGTFY]

@amph, the block reward was higher, but it was also worth considerably less than it is now. Back then $50 was a good price - a 50 BTC block reward was worth £2500 (50 x 50). Now $450 is an OK price, and a 25 BTC block reward is worth $11250. Then and now, there were/are miners operating at the margin, miners who did/will drop out at the next difficulty increase because they were/are barely profitable. Difficulty has always worked to make sure that mining is driven by efficiency - that less efficient miners are less profitable or unprofitable. There's no guarantee of huge profits, except through being more efficient than your competitors.

the diff was also much lower than what it is now, i cna argue that it was more profitable to mine bitcoin back then, not to mention that it is always better to have more coins per day at a lower price than the opposite

this because you can speculate more in the future, like it actually happened, those mienrs are now rich if they did not screwed their earning back then...

Difficulty was significantly lower than it is now, sure. That doesn't mean mining was more profitable, it means that profitable miners then were more profitable than profitable miners now (for some miners, then and now, mining is not profitable). Mining has always been unprofitable for some miners - that's the engine that drives difficulty changes, and ultimately efficiency.

it was more easy to speculate back then, in the sense that since the value was really low an icrease in value was more expected with a far greater factor than what we have nowadays(we still need to match the x25-30 increase that appeared in 2011-2012, for example...)

like i said it far better to have 100 coins a day at $1 each than 0.1 a day at $1k each...

Maybe. I do remember the excitement when we hit $1 and $10, but equally I can remember sitting around $10 for what seemed like an eternity, wondering if we'd ever see $20 again... I think the Golden Age of speculation was the year after the first halving, when we saw two new ATHs. Before that we'd had some initial price discovery (2010-2011) and then a long time sitting around $10 (2011-2012).

I have to admit I'm not sold on the 100 @ $1 vs 0.1 @ $1k argument. Take a hypothetical marginal miner making BTC worth $100 and with current costs of 99%, looking at $1 profit (in BTC), but with an expectation that the price of BTC will change (rise). I think in general there's an expectation that price's rate of change increases, but even without that assumption a miner (in the past and at present) has no certainty over the future. A miner who profited with $1 worth of BTC in March 2011 (when $1 = 1 BTC) and then sold two months later would have done worse than a miner who profited with $1 worth of BTC in December 2013 (when $1000 = 1 BTC) and then sold months later! (Sorry, that's a fairly contrived example, but I'm sure you get the point). Price decreases come in similar sizes to price increases, then and now.

[Amph]

maybe i'm a bit too much into altcoin, were my example fit greatly(the 100 vs 0.1 comparison) i can understand that for a strong coin like bitcoin, this may be different, because it should in theory increase in the future, like it did in the past

but with all the doubts for the future, i'm still on the fence for this, while still being optimistic for the time being

[LMGTFY]

maybe i'm a bit too much into altcoin, were my example fit greatly(the 100 vs 0.1 comparison) i can understand that for a strong coin like bitcoin, this may be different, because it should in theory increase in the future, like it did in the past

but with all the doubts for the future, i'm still on the fence for this, while still being optimistic for the time being

To be honest, that's kinda my position - I'm wary of the moon-talk, while being quietly bullish for the long-term.

Anyway, thanks for a good discussion - lots for me to think about! (I have zero experience with alts, by the way, and no recent experience with mining - I stopped mining when mining gear changed from "something I could recycle to play games" to "specialised hardware only useful for mining", and a lot has changed since then).

[Auxi]

I see bad bad times for miners...

Optimization always win

[7Priest7]

Will the value of bitcoin go up because of halving to mining reward or will this cause a crash?

yeah it will go up, just don't believe people that says that price will go to 1500$ or even 2000$, that is bull*hit, in best case, price after halving will go up by 200$ but not more, also it should create panic, so price might fall a bit day after halving, but will rise later

[hitchingAride]

I'm just wondering that if halving is supposed to make the price go up wouldn't people have already pushed the price up?

[sirohige]

This is just bad scenario :
if block halving done, miner will stop his hardware and try mining other altcoin like Etherum, so bitcoin network will be decrease around 10-20% , price still low (arround $400) , then other altcoin lead cryptocoin marketcap..?

 

[jerowacik]

because bitcoin coverage will decrease and will certainly affect the strength of the market. the less supply more expensive as well a bitcoin.

[nostal02]

It may affect the price drastically as miners will have to spend a lot of hashing power because the difficulty is higher.
And the bitcoin distribution will be less and less and the time goes by.

[Sukovsky]

We've seen what the halving did with Litecoin. It got a big ass pump, then settled at roughly 2X the value before the pump. With BTC it is going to be the same.

[odolvlobo]

We've seen what the halving did with Litecoin. It got a big ass pump, then settled at roughly 2X the value before the pump. With BTC it is going to be the same.

Let's be a little more accurate. What really happened was that before the halving there was a huge run-up from $1.40 to $7, followed by a crash to $3. After the halving, the price has changed very little, so it is hard to claim that the halving caused the increase directly. Plus, it must be noted that all crypto-currencies behaved similarly during that time period. Do you also claim that Litecoin's halving caused the rise in the price of BTC from $230 to $300?

I think it was actually the hype about the halving, along with some other factors, that caused the pre-halving bubble. I believe that the same thing will happen with bitcoin. The Bitcoin halving hype will cause a pre-halving bubble, and the halving itself will have no effect.

[lottery248]

probably there is gonna be a bump for that matter, but bitcoins for now? Imo then sell it fast when bumped for halve as soon as it soars.
china wants you more bitcoins (their economic system is not that stable, bitcoin is their goodie), they can probably give you more money if you win them, AFAIK.

[praprata]

We've seen what the halving did with Litecoin. It got a big ass pump, then settled at roughly 2X the value before the pump. With BTC it is going to be the same.

Indeed, the facts are here for sure, but the problem is that its now to early to say this, it can happen for sure.
The point is also that a lot of people will sell the bitcoin but I even think there will be more sellers than buyers..

[sadyas]

The halving could double the bitcoin price. But it also depends on the general adoptioin of the coin.

[winspiral]

The halving could double the bitcoin price. But it also depends on the general adoptioin of the coin.

It could as well triple it...
No seriousely...it will not affect much the BTC price.

[armansolis593]

The halving could double the bitcoin price. But it also depends on the general adoptioin of the coin.

It could as well triple it...
No seriousely...it will not affect much the BTC price.

The coming halving really wont affected the price that high maybe just an additional 100$,in order for the price to be high we need more users for bitcoin.

[LMGTFY]

The halving could double the bitcoin price. But it also depends on the general adoptioin of the coin.

It could as well triple it...
No seriousely...it will not affect much the BTC price.

The coming halving really wont affected the price that high maybe just an additional 100$,in order for the price to be high we need more users for bitcoin.

How many users do we have now (and how are you measuring the number of users)?

[maxj57634]

With all these hype regarding the pump at the halving I'm beginning to see a lot of people will be disappointed when the time comes.

Yeah some might be disappointed with the price that will come by that time but for sure there will be a pump we just dont know how many.

[busybee7]

The halving could double the bitcoin price. But it also depends on the general adoptioin of the coin.

most probably the price of the bitcoin will not be too different even though it will rise a little bit i doubt it will double

im holding my bitcoins right now as i believe that the price will grow though only time can show it right now