[CHART] Bitcoin Inflation vs. Time

[alisa1990]

Inflation should also have a certain impact on the bitcoin

[mmortal03]

Nobody cares about money supply except to the extent that it affects prices.

People will care when we reach the point where we can tell them that the US dollar is being printed at a faster rate than the bitcoin is being mined.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we've now reached this point, now that we're post 2nd halving. Bitcoin's monetary inflation rate is now lower than the US dollar's M1 inflation rate.  Not the same as price inflation, of course, but still an important event.

[painlord2k]

For people interested in my charts I have just updated the https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml BTC USD inflation v2

I have added a few charts comparing the initial schedule mining with the actual mining and the scheduled inflation over time with the actual.

[painlord2k]

And for your amusement, here you can see the inflation halving on the chart (the orange line on the right)

[painlord2k]

I added the USD M2 to the chart.
It is probably the money quantity influencing directly the living of people (costs of living / price inflation).

After the halving, for the first time, Bitcoin coinbase grow slower than M2.

The main problem limiting the price, now, is the number of transactions possible.
We will not go anywhere if the number of actual transactions don't grow.
At best, the value could grow slowly as most valuable transactions keep less valuable transactions from entering the blockchain (it become SWIFT instead of VISA).

[Frodomaga]

I believe bitcoin is the future's money!  BTCBTCBTC                                                                                                                                                   

[lotfiuser]

u can expect price cuz defficultie change and miners change as earning

[STT]

Obviously both "sides" believe their definition of inflation is the right one but it always leads to confusion and/or fights.  If everyone simply used the terms price inflation or money supply inflation it would always be clear.

There was only one definition before the Federal reserve was brought in 1913 and after that two definitions began with the monetary base obviously expanding in a simple relationship and so effecting prices and the government defined idea of inflation adjusted for various policies and ideas.
  Especially now with an unfixed worth to dollars, inflation is a variable description where as the original idea of reference to a known quality is the same as ever.   Seems like a reinvented word to me, you can take the spoken meaning slang or the original definition.
    Currently monetary base inflation is very high, much higher then GDP or population growth but the government inflation figure is very low.     The reason that matters is that inflation exceeds interest rates, debt repayment rates by government and companies and it exceeds the rates wages increase every year.  Inflation exceeds GDP growth which if correct would trigger the word recession and this is not an acceptable conclusion taught in current economics.  I think its very political and we view the world through a goldfish bowl to gain a certain perspective, large debt is valued over production.   Governments have large debts, unserviceable otherwise so every party agrees with this current view

I guess if someone tried to measure goods sold in bitcoin over time it could relate



The google graphs are a bit small but if you press ctrl and + it can make them a bit more readable

[painlord2k]

The google graphs are a bit small but if you press ctrl and + it can make them a bit more readable

When I work on them, I have them pretty large
I moved the charts back to a sheet instead of them on their own tab and now they appear large.
Hope this help.

[mmortal03]

The google graphs are a bit small but if you press ctrl and + it can make them a bit more readable

When I work on them, I have them pretty large
I moved the charts back to a sheet instead of them on their own tab and now they appear large.
Hope this help.

Wow, now they're too large! We've got to find a happy medium on this. Good to see you figured out a way to solve the problem, though.

[jvper]

I believe the velocity of money (btc in this case) matters here. Today it is extremely slow, since its usage is minimum.

[painlord2k]

It is extremely low because you have just 250k tx/day top max.
Make them 250 M / day top and this would change a lot.

[AndySt]

I believe the velocity of money (btc in this case) matters here. Today it is extremely slow, since its usage is minimum.

I also agree with you that the rate will be higher than at this time, including the fact that the world economy can expect a big shock.

[Benchman]

2025 year will be good for bitcoin.

Oh, at this time, block reward 'll be 3,2BTC.

[Daniel2806]

Thanks for this graphs! I suppose that situation around it could be better, but we will see what's going to happen with BTC. Only a matter of time.

[XiongTyler]

Great chart! Thank you! And you know Austrian Economics well.

[.m.]

I like data from painlord2k

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml#

[painlord2k]

Thank You for the appreciation.

Looking at the charts, I continue to see the USD M0 to continue to fall (slowly but steadily), where the M1 and M2 continue to rise.
Theoretically they should raise and fall together (give or take some lags).
What could cause the reverse?

1) The Fed is fudging the data and hiding money creation somewhere else
2) Someone is paying back his debts with the Feds reducing M0 and at the same time is using his liquidity to buy stuff and services raising the M1 and M2?
3) An Argentine situation where the money supply reduce but the trust in it reduce faster so people just spend their USD as fast as they can?
4) Something else entirely?

[Oschoir]

I'm sure this question has been done to death but I haven't found an answer yet. Why do people talk so often about 2040 and 2140 as the estimated end date of the block subsidy? I had read 2140 in the early days and so took that number for granted. Andreas Antonopoulos uses 2140 in his book. Bank of England talk about 2040 in their papers as do many other people. I always assumed 2040 was typo. To settle it, I've made my own calcs.

Assuming exactly 4 years between each 210,000 milestone then the year 2105 is when the last subsidy will be mined according to me.
What am I missing?

The formula used:
https://i.imgur.com/zWrkjI4.jpg

And the table it produces:
https://i.imgur.com/xxVcKj5.jpg

[Foxpup]

Bank of England talk about 2040 in their papers as do many other people. I always assumed 2040 was typo.

It is.

What am I missing?

Your formulae are all wrong. The block subsidy (indeed, all bitcoin values) are an integer number of satoshis (hundred millionth parts of a bitcoin), and rounded down when they would be fractional, so column C should be =(FLOOR(C2*100000000/2))/100000000 and you shouldn't be rounding column E at all (and you should show 8 decimal places). Also, 210,000 blocks is slightly less than 4 years; at 10 minutes per block, it is 1,458 days and 8 hours. For reference, a correct table of block subsidies can be found here: en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Long_Term