Yet another analyst :)

[siulynot]

OK, triangle broke up...

That leaves us with another possibility, we are still in (B)

[1713517000]

1713517000

[arepo]

OK, triangle broke up...

That leaves us with another possibility, we are still in (B)

so, just for some accountability -- what made you so sure of these statements? :

If this is I of (C) then this is a descending triangle 4 of I of (C), which will make it to a II of (C) that will get to $150 or something like that (61% fibo retrace from $166 as of now. Would be lower, the lower I goes).

What every bull seems to want is for the price to go to $150 without completing the primery trend rules that is 5 waves in favor of trend and 3 contrary of trend.

If we had a bullish market until $266, then right now we are on primary down... doesnt matter how deflationary and how high bitcoin will go, it definetly is in a downtrend for now. And if that is the case then there should be 5 waves down now, we only have 4 since the $166 top of (B). if we have 5 waves down to $100 and then retrace to $150 then have another 5 waves down to maybe $80 or $60, then have another wave up to $120 then another wave to $32 then we have a text book complete correction and then we can go for the $3million or whatever price you think bitcoin should have.

... and how can you identify and correct a similar error in the future?

if you cannot easily answer these questions, as i suspect, then your methods are not rigorous enough.

[smoothie]

triangles...lol

 

[siulynot]

OK, triangle broke up...

That leaves us with another possibility, we are still in (B)

so, just for some accountability -- what made you so sure of these statements? :

If this is I of (C) then this is a descending triangle 4 of I of (C), which will make it to a II of (C) that will get to $150 or something like that (61% fibo retrace from $166 as of now. Would be lower, the lower I goes).

What every bull seems to want is for the price to go to $150 without completing the primery trend rules that is 5 waves in favor of trend and 3 contrary of trend.

If we had a bullish market until $266, then right now we are on primary down... doesnt matter how deflationary and how high bitcoin will go, it definetly is in a downtrend for now. And if that is the case then there should be 5 waves down now, we only have 4 since the $166 top of (B). if we have 5 waves down to $100 and then retrace to $150 then have another 5 waves down to maybe $80 or $60, then have another wave up to $120 then another wave to $32 then we have a text book complete correction and then we can go for the $3million or whatever price you think bitcoin should have.

... and how can you identify and correct a similar error in the future?

if you cannot easily answer these questions, as i suspect, then your methods are not rigorous enough.

A 3wave down correction confirms that there still up movement left for the (B). (C) Will be confirmed when we get 5waves down and 3 up.

[lucif]

Yeah, breaking up. It may start to draw daily triangle

[arepo]

A 3wave down correction confirms that there still up movement left for the (B). (C) Will be confirmed when we get 5waves down and 3 up.

i apologise, but i am not very familiar with specific EW terminology. i can't quite tell if you've answered my question. let me rephrase?

in the model you presented which i quoted, was there any indication of up or down at all? or did you need this price movement confirmation for it to be useful as a predictive model? further, now that you have a confirmation, can you predict the next movement? or is it the same case, and can only be validated after-the-fact?

[samson]

Yeah, breaking up. It may start to draw daily triangle

I'd be interested to see the theory of how a bull run will play out at this stage.

[arepo]

Yeah, breaking up. It may start to draw daily triangle

i can ask you the same question. can you identify the error(s) in your assumptions/model that caused you to have a bearish outlook before today?

[lucif]

i can ask you the same question. can you identify the error(s) in your assumptions/model that caused you to have a bearish outlook before today?

I didn't mistaken That daily triangle has been drawn on 3rd April in this thread.

However I thought 1 wave will go deeper.

[Its About Sharing]

Stop it with the triangles already, if a method does fail multiple times it does not make sense to use it again till it works.

Its not the theory which fails, its the application.

Triangles need to be redrawn how many times necessary until they make the last form, which should show the characteristics of the breakout.

yes, but how many times are necessary? the technique you just described is exactly what many TA-naysayers hate -- constant re-drawing of arbitrary lines that wait for a confirmation to be validated after-the-fact. these methods are not predictive and are of little use.

--arepo

Hallelujah, at last someone with some rationality left in this thread!

this thread is not for your rational pleasure... fuck off... make your own thread. The same goes for smoothie... at leas arepo made his own thread.

It is not a rational pleasure, it is actually painful to see how you and all the TA evangelists are so blind about their own rational loophole.
As a psychologist it is plain obvious to see that the TA techniques are flawed by its very root: humans are programmed to see patterns, even if there are none out there. It is a bias known as apophenia.

Next, all of your reasonings are ridden with cognitive biases.
The mere naming of oneselves as "bulls" and/or "bears" undermines any attempt of being objective, as it is very basic prejudice which WILL affect your perception of anything you analyze. The mere fact that all of you have stakes in bitcoins will definitely bias your judgement, and if you think you are being objective you are just kidding yourself. It is a human impossibility.
There are tons of research on prejudice, priming and apophenia that makes any type of pattern recognition inherently unreliable.
Let alone the very star of TA: the self-fulfilled prophecies.

I will tell you a very simple list of what all of the TA enthusiasts, even the smart ones, are being a victim of:

• Negativity Bias(bears)
• Optimist Bias(bulls)
• Hindsight Bias
• Confirmation Bias
• Bias Blind Spot
• Cogntive Dissonance
• Ad-Hoc Hypothesizing
• Apophenia
• Subjective Validation
• Gambler's Fallacy
• Expectation Bias
• Dunning–Kruger Effect
• Selective Recall
• Rosy Retrospection

If you are not familiar with some or any of this, then you are the most likely candidate to be a victim of your own humanity.
Everyone who claims to be using solely TA for their financial decisions are just as self-deceiving as esoteric believers.
Good day everyone.

Great post bitsalame,   I do use a little TA when looking at BTC but not a whole lot, maybe just for entry points to pick up more, but not much even then. I traded stocks for quite a few years and TA was usually a very successful way for me with swing trades of a few weeks to months (I used candlesticks). But BTC is not a stock (only). We can argue that it is a currency/payment system/commodity/"stock"/technology/protocol/etc. so if we rely on something as narrow as TA we are doing a big injustice to something so complex. And, BTC is being partly (or is that largely?) driven by sentiment.

Relating to that last point, sentiment, consider the state of the world economies. If one more economy pulls a Cypress, you will see BTC double or triple in short order. NO TA IS GOING TO SHOW YOU THAT COMING. Countries all over the world are being tight lipped on the actual situations, so don't expect much of a warning if any. They will say everything is ok until your $$ or Euro account has been "adjusted"  

It's All About Sharing

[arepo]

i can ask you the same question. can you identify the error(s) in your assumptions/model that caused you to have a bearish outlook before today?

I didn't mistaken That daily triangle has been drawn on 3rd April in this thread.

However I thought 1 wave will go deeper.

i see, as all of your recent "daily candidates" have been bearish. i don't know very much about EW -- i was wondering how one would go about identifying and correcting such an error in one's assumptions or projections in the future?

[lucif]

i see, as all of your recent "daily candidates" have been bearish. i don't know very much about EW -- i was wondering how one would go about identifying and correcting such an error in one's assumptions or projections in the future?

They were incomplete. If you don't know that after bearish wave C there is always bullish bounce (at least bounce) - its your problem.

All going according to plan.

[arepo]

They were incomplete. If you don't know that after bearish wave C there is always bullish bounce (at least bounce) - its your problem.

All going according to plan.

this still doesn't make sense to me -- if you knew this, then why did you expect us to break under $120?

[samson]

i can ask you the same question. can you identify the error(s) in your assumptions/model that caused you to have a bearish outlook before today?

I didn't mistaken That daily triangle has been drawn on 3rd April in this thread.

However I thought 1 wave will go deeper.

i see, as all of your recent "daily candidates" have been bearish. i don't know very much about EW -- i was wondering how one would go about identifying and correcting such an error in one's assumptions or projections in the future?

I wouldn't say he was wrong or made an error - these are possible scenarios which could still quite easily play out in the near future.

Just because the 'price goes up' right now doesn't mean we won't revert to a different and much lower trajectory later, perhaps in just a few days time.

I guess that all depends on how far we go and how fast we get there. This being Bitcoin I wouldn't be surprised if it's trading higher than $155-160 later today followed by a harsh correction and a return to one of the previous 'waves'. Who knows.

[lucif]

I didn't expect you, but you expect something from me =)

[siulynot]

A 3wave down correction confirms that there still up movement left for the (B). (C) Will be confirmed when we get 5waves down and 3 up.

i apologise, but i am not very familiar with specific EW terminology. i can't quite tell if you've answered my question. let me rephrase?

in the model you presented which i quoted, was there any indication of up or down at all? or did you need this price movement confirmation for it to be useful as a predictive model? further, now that you have a confirmation, can you predict the next movement? or is it the same case, and can only be validated after-the-fact?

Well, by text book, confirmation of a higher (B) should be at $167, confirming a higher high.

I get biased for an up move since the correction after the $166 top was a 3 wave formation with a descending triangle that broke up. Though i thought the triangle should have broken down and there should have been another wave down for then a wave II formation to take place (which was my bias).

The breaking up of the triangle makes me change perspective and eliminate the possibility of a 5 wave down for now (only to take place after another move up).

The breaking up of the triangle is the first hint of another leg of (B), but that is confirmed once we go above $167. Right after $167 price should accelerate and struck the $180 (61% fibo retrace) or maybe around $200 which should be the 76% fibo retracement.

[arepo]

A 3wave down correction confirms that there still up movement left for the (B). (C) Will be confirmed when we get 5waves down and 3 up.

i apologise, but i am not very familiar with specific EW terminology. i can't quite tell if you've answered my question. let me rephrase?

in the model you presented which i quoted, was there any indication of up or down at all? or did you need this price movement confirmation for it to be useful as a predictive model? further, now that you have a confirmation, can you predict the next movement? or is it the same case, and can only be validated after-the-fact?

Well, by text book, confirmation of a higher (B) should be at $167, confirming a higher high.

I get biased for an up move since the correction after the $166 top was a 3 wave formation with a descending triangle that broke up. Though i thought the triangle should have broken down and there should have been another wave down for then a wave II formation to take place (which was my bias).

The breaking up of the triangle makes me change perspective and eliminate the possibility of a 5 wave down for now (only to take place after another move up).

The breaking up of the triangle is the first hint of another leg of (B), but that is confirmed once we go above $167. Right after $167 price should accelerate and struck the $180 (61% fibo retrace) or maybe around $200 which should be the 76% fibo retracement.

i'm not sure if it's just a language barrier, but you seem to maintain more rigor even than lucif

thanks for the explanation, i'm sure i'll get the hang of EW eventually.

[Miz4r]

There is always an excuse if a prediction doesn't come true. Look the world didn't end on December 21st 2012, it will be next year for sure! Yeah right, just come down to earth and admit you don't know shit like the rest of us. Humility is underrated.

[siulynot]

There is always an excuse if a prediction doesn't come true. Look the world didn't end on December 21st 2012, it will be next year for sure! Yeah right, just come down to earth and admit you don't know shit like the rest of us. Humility is underrated.

if you are dealing with chaos and patterns there is no end of the world, and there is no infinite world. There are just patterns to be.

[samson]

There is always an excuse if a prediction doesn't come true. Look the world didn't end on December 21st 2012, it will be next year for sure! Yeah right, just come down to earth and admit you don't know shit like the rest of us. Humility is underrated.

LOL, the 21st December was right in the middle of the launchpad for the huge rally that took Bitcoin to $266.

Didn't the 'Mayan mumbo jumbo' say it was the end of an era / start of a new one, not the end of the world.