Yet another analyst :)

[lucif]

boough

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/secret-life-money-revealed-172617707.html

[1714033630]

1714033630

[1714033630]

1714033630

[1714033630]

1714033630

[1714033630]

1714033630

[lucif]

boough

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/secret-life-money-revealed-172617707.html

Bah... They didn't mention bitcoin. Cold shot.

[ATC777]

I'm surprised it never actually made it to $100, with people as excited and irrationally bullish as they have been of late. Now I'm not sure if it will ever see $100 this year at all (it may, but it's questionable). It's just been kinda flat/dead lately with unusually low volume, which was not quite what I expected this week but does make sense.

Most of the "smart money" sold into the climb from $75 to $95 (personally, I sold in an inverted pyramid fashion along with them), and let the small fries and pigs gobble it up and hold the risk here. But the market seems to suggest the pigs didn't even have as much money to play with as I thought. The question now, in my mind, is whether there's another group of fools or a gambling pig out there with enough money to blow the bubble up to $100+ before it bursts, or if it will start making a slower and more orderly decline from here as the little guys decide to abandon ship.

I have a slight suspicion that we may sink slowly from here and create a sort of "malformed H&S" ... if that is the case I'd expect the last bounce at the neckline to be a bit weak with relatively low volume. But bitcoiners seem to love chaos lol. In any case, this bubble is just about done, no matter how you want to look at it... it would take a tremendous change in the underlying fundamentals to save it now and support these prices, otherwise it will simply run its course and pop. All miracles aside, the only thing I'm not so sure about is if it will see one last zooming breakout before it dies or not.

But I'm not one to hope for (or bet on) miracles, so I will remain a skeptic/bear unless Bitcoin itself can prove me wrong. I love Bitcoin, but I don't love $80+ bitcoins with this tiny user-base and illiquid/volatile market... But my biggest fear on that account (being wrong) is that the bubble will just grow a bit bigger, people will risk more money on it and then it will implode more violently... and the wake/aftermath might have a more harmful effect on the future of bitcoin. You might convince someone to grab a pot again after they've been burned once, by assuring them it will be cool this time... But after being burned twice will you grab it again? For most people the answer would probably be no...

Regards,

--ATC--

[smoothie]

I'm surprised it never actually made it to $100, with people as excited and irrationally bullish as they have been of late. Now I'm not sure if it will ever see $100 this year at all (it may, but it's questionable). It's just been kinda flat/dead lately with unusually low volume, which was not quite what I expected this week but does make sense.

Most of the "smart money" sold into the climb from $75 to $95 (personally, I sold in an inverted pyramid fashion along with them), and let the small fries and pigs gobble it up and hold the risk here. But the market seems to suggest the pigs didn't even have as much money to play with as I thought. The question now, in my mind, is whether there's another group of fools or a gambling pig out there with enough money to blow the bubble up to $100+ before it bursts, or if it will start making a slower and more orderly decline from here as the little guys decide to abandon ship.

I have a slight suspicion that we may sink slowly from here and create a sort of "malformed H&S" ... if that is the case I'd expect the last bounce at the neckline to be a bit weak with relatively low volume. But bitcoiners seem to love chaos lol. In any case, this bubble is just about done, no matter how you want to look at it... it would take a tremendous change in the underlying fundamentals to save it now and support these prices, otherwise it will simply run its course and pop. All miracles aside, the only thing I'm not so sure about is if it will see one last zooming breakout before it dies or not.

But I'm not one to hope for (or bet on) miracles, so I will remain a skeptic/bear unless Bitcoin itself can prove me wrong. I love Bitcoin, but I don't love $80+ bitcoins with this tiny user-base and illiquid/volatile market... But my biggest fear on that account (being wrong) is that the bubble will just grow a bit bigger, people will risk more money on it and then it will implode more violently... and the wake/aftermath might have a more harmful effect on the future of bitcoin. You might convince someone to grab a pot again after they've been burned once, by assuring them it will be cool this time... But after being burned twice will you grab it again? For most people the answer would probably be no...

Regards,

--ATC--

I bet you will be wrong in the next 5-6 days.

Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.

Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.

Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.

[Crazy]

smoothie, out of curiosity, did you pre-order an ASIC miner from BFL?

[smoothie]

smoothie, out of curiosity, did you pre-order an ASIC miner from BFL?

Hell to the no.

Screw that. I would never send funds for a device that doesn't exist. BFL in my estimation is a scam now.

With all the delays etc, they are incompetent and those with orders with them should cancel and just buy bitcoin.

[Crazy]

That's insane. Why is the forum even accepting their advertising money? Sorry for derailing this thread btw, but I'm seeing a lot of BFL warnings lately.

[smoothie]

That's insane. Why is the forum even accepting their advertising money? Sorry for derailing this thread btw, but I'm seeing a lot of BFL warnings lately.

I recently posed this question to Theymos and the forum MODs about banning BFL advertising here. Theymos said he would take a look into it if they dont ship by their next target date (which I have no clue when that is).

[Crazy]

The responsible approach would be to suspend their campaign without refund until they ship. If they ship, they can either take a refund or exhaust the remainder of the campaign. To leave an advertisement running with so much controversy surrounding the issue is pretty irresponsible in my opinion. There's no telling how many more orders they will get from these ads.

[notme]

The responsible approach would be to suspend their campaign without refund until they ship. If they ship, they can either take a refund or exhaust the remainder of the campaign. To leave an advertisement running with so much controversy surrounding the issue is pretty irresponsible in my opinion. There's no telling how many more orders they will get from these ads.

It would be pretty arbitrary to censor them like that.  If you want rules, fine.  But at least make them public and transparent before you take their money.

[Crazy]

It would be pretty arbitrary to censor them like that.  If you want rules, fine.  But at least make them public and transparent before you take their money.

When a company is guilty of material misrepresentation (no prototypes, missing deadline after deadline, etc), I'm pretty sure that's not really arbitrary. I'm sure there is a clause in the advertising agreement that BitcoinTalk.org can suspend or cancel a campaign at any time at their discretion. If not, they should. I think it would be wise to amend the agreement for future campaigns so as to curb potential scammers getting a nice run of orders from a major forum.

[notme]

It would be pretty arbitrary to censor them like that.  If you want rules, fine.  But at least make them public and transparent before you take their money.

When a company is guilty of material misrepresentation (no prototypes, missing deadline after deadline, etc), I'm pretty sure that's not really arbitrary. I'm sure there is a clause in the advertising agreement that BitcoinTalk.org can suspend or cancel a campaign at any time at their discretion. If not, they should. I think it would be wise to amend the agreement for future campaigns so as to curb potential scammers getting a nice run of orders from a major forum.

Cool.  We're way off topic now.  If you really care, go make a topic in the meta sub forum.

[ATC777]

I bet you will be wrong in the next 5-6 days.

Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.

Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.

Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.

Yep, I made money, you made money, nearly all of us made money. That's a good thing. But knowing when to ring the register and take a profit is an extremely important aspect of being a successful trader... You know that old saying: "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is probably a duck"? ... even if we put technical analysis to the side and just use some simple, "old school" reasoning:

1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...

If I walked away from Bitcoin at this point and never used it again I would be better for the experience. I'm not going to stop using Bitcoin, but the point is I have nothing to lose here. I can afford to miss out on a few %, and those few % are not worth the risk of losing many %... Risk is to the downside, not the upside.

Disagree as we may, I applaud you for expressing your opinion in an intelligent, civilized fashion (not joking). So +1 for smoothie. 

--ATC--

[smoothie]

I bet you will be wrong in the next 5-6 days.

Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.

Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.

Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.

Yep, I made money, you made money, nearly all of us made money. That's a good thing. But knowing when to ring the register and take a profit is an extremely important aspect of being a successful trader... You know that old saying: "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is probably a duck"? ... even if we put technical analysis to the side and just use some simple, "old school" reasoning:

1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...

If I walked away from Bitcoin at this point and never used it again I would be better for the experience. I'm not going to stop using Bitcoin, but the point is I have nothing to lose here. I can afford to miss out on a few %, and those few % are not worth the risk of losing many %... Risk is to the downside, not the upside.

Disagree as we may, I applaud you for expressing your opinion in an intelligent, civilized fashion (not joking). So +1 for smoothie.  

--ATC--

If we all were able to call bubbles then we would all be rich now huh? Usually bubbles occur when you least expect it. Perhaps this could be the percieved value growth of bitcoins based on the many positive developments for bitcoin?

Once again I bet you will be proven wrong in the next 5-6 days concerning your claim that bitcoin likely wont go through $100.


Moreso it seems that you making bearish calls shows you were hoping to buy in cheaper than you sold. Don't deny it that you wanted to make a % profit by selling and hoping to buy back cheaper. Same principle.

I somehow believe you will at some point buy back in higher.

As Cypher says "Sell High, Buy Higher" 

[KTE]

I'm surprised it never actually made it to $100, with people as excited and irrationally bullish as they have been of late. Now I'm not sure if it will ever see $100 this year at all (it may, but it's questionable). It's just been kinda flat/dead lately with unusually low volume, which was not quite what I expected this week but does make sense.

It's Easter now, which is a massive (western) worldwide holiday. A lot of people travel or spend a lot of time with their families during Easter, and banks are on holiday as well.

If you look at bitcoincharts ( http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5ztgOzm1g10zm2g25zv ) you'll see that the action starts to quiet down on Good Friday, when people get do their last moves before going for a holiday, and then basically dies for the weekend with lower volumes than during normal weekends. There is no cash flowing in due to banks being closed and people are 'offline' due to being on vacation. As the exhanges are online, I am a bit surprised the price hasn't gone down, since people do have the chance of selling while new money is not available.

On monday the action will likely pick up a little bit, but it's still a western holiday so it'll probably be much quieter than a normal monday. Come tuesday, the game is back on. Even as us geeks spend loads of time online 24/7 and here in bitcointalk it's fun to look at how the coin is doing, it doesn't mean the rest of the world has got nothing better to do during holidays.

The lower volumes can be explained by the holidays, not by us being close to $100.

[BrightAnarchist]

1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...

100% agreed. People are calling this "the singularity" even though bitcoin is having trouble with the volume at Satoshi Dice (and that's just one website). Now, Bitcoin still has value of course, but saying it's going to be the new world currency anytime soon is just ridiculous.

Other bubble signs include:
- people are selling their houses to buy bitcoin
- it's all over the news
- it's an "investment" now, not a currency like it has been for the past two years. The same change in attitude towards bitcoin occurred in the 2011 bubble
- People are cashing out their retirement accounts and going "all in"
- all this is happening coincident with another financial bubble in stocks and junk bonds. The mania psychology between multiple sets of markets is no coincidence - it's all part of human herding behavior. The last time bitcoin peaked was in july 2011, coincident with the last major selloff in stocks and also the high of the small caps/large caps ratio (a measure of speculative fever). This time, again, it followed the lead of the stock market and will likely peak around the same time.

Once again I bet you will be proven wrong in the next 5-6 days concerning your claim that bitcoin likely wont go through $100.

Agreed here as well. According to Lucif's count, we have one more new high to come before the collapse.

[zkay]

1) This looks like 99.9% of the bubbles of the past...
2) People have the same "bubble mentality" exhibited in all past bubbles (bullish to the point of growing horns -- denying the possibility the price can ever go down)...
3) The numbers reflect the same proportions as past bubbles...
4) It's not worth the risk to try to buy high and sell a little bit higher...

100% agreed. People are calling this "the singularity" even though bitcoin is having trouble with the volume at Satoshi Dice (and that's just one website). Now, Bitcoin still has value of course, but saying it's going to be the new world currency anytime soon is just ridiculous.

Other bubble signs include:
- people are selling their houses to buy bitcoin
- it's all over the news
- it's an "investment" now, not a currency like it has been for the past two years. The same change in attitude towards bitcoin occurred in the 2011 bubble
- People are cashing out their retirement accounts and going "all in"
- all this is happening coincident with another financial bubble in stocks and junk bonds. The mania psychology between multiple sets of markets is no coincidence - it's all part of human herding behavior. The last time bitcoin peaked was in july 2011, coincident with the last major selloff in stocks and also the high of the small caps/large caps ratio (a measure of speculative fever). This time, again, it followed the lead of the stock market and will likely peak around the same time.

Once again I bet you will be proven wrong in the next 5-6 days concerning your claim that bitcoin likely wont go through $100.

Agreed here as well. According to Lucif's count, we have one more new high to come before the collapse.

Only for the whole process to repeat itself? If that is the case I, and I'm sure many other people, will be buying in quite heavily come that time.

What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?

[BrightAnarchist]

Only for the whole process to repeat itself? If that is the case I, and I'm sure many other people, will be buying in quite heavily come that time.

What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?

I don't know that - I'll leave the price calls to Lucif and his charts . All I know is that in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.

[zkay]

Only for the whole process to repeat itself? If that is the case I, and I'm sure many other people, will be buying in quite heavily come that time.

What are you thinking for the new ATH prior to the crash? Where are we headed?

I don't know that - I'll leave the price calls to Lucif and his charts . All I know is that in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.

Ah, I see. Alright then. At the moment everyone seems pretty confident we'll hit $100 in the next few days, and I hope they are right. I think I'll start phasing myself out at $102.

Almost salivating at buying back in at what I did in early february - $19.70

[lebing]

in financial markets if you reach the point where everyone knows something, then the exact opposite is usually about to occur.

Right because when everyone bought the google IPO because they knew it was an amazing company, it failed instead.