Big Crash coming

[Technicrate]

I see many people in this thread stating that if the value of the US dollar collapsed, then the value of bitcoin would increase.  However, I don't see how those two events are inversely related.  In my mind, if bitcoin were functionally tied directly to the exchange of goods and services, then that statement might be true, but I don't think that is the case.  The value of bitcoin seems to be directly tied to the value of the world's fiat currencies and indirectly tied to the exchange of goods and services.  So, if the value of the US dollar crashed, then the value of bitcoin would crash proportionately.  How would the purchasing power of bitcoin increase (in terms of good and services) if the US dollar declined in value?

If the value of dollar collapse, people will use bitcoin more, so the bitcoin value will rise due to more adoption.

[cr1776]

What is the big crash coming are you saying? 13 days to go befor 2016 ends and i think that will not happen. You are not the creator and why you are saying that? Are you out of your mind?

He thought "crash" meant "spike"

[cr1776]

What is the big crash coming are you saying? 13 days to go befor 2016 ends and i think that will not happen. You are not the creator and why you are saying that? Are you out of your mind?

Big crash coming means the future and we cannot see the future, we have our own prediction in the future and since bitcoin is very unpredictable we might see a good or bad future and at any time it could crash depending on how people react in a bad situation.

And why would we think of bitcoin crashing, it's giving us a good benefit so I would not hope for that to happen in the future. Let's continue to make this coins great until more and more people will adopt.

The question is not about Bitcoin crashing, care to read the opening post next time

It is only 13 days left before 2017 begins, but the counting down may have already started with the crash setting off tomorrow, i.e. December, 19, when the US Electoral College should declare Trump as the winner of the presidential elections in the US. If they don't do that (for whatever reason), it will be a Black swan of all Black swans, which will inevitably cause a chain reaction leading to all kinds of calamities resulting in extreme havoc and chaos

Trump will destroy the American economy and US currency if he cuts tax and borrow too much. People wil lose confidence.

Smart people LIKE pro growth policies of tax cuts because it means more growth and lower taxes means more freedom.  Most people like freedom, although some often seem to want it for themselves but want to control others.

[deisik]

I see many people in this thread stating that if the value of the US dollar collapsed, then the value of bitcoin would increase.  However, I don't see how those two events are inversely related.  In my mind, if bitcoin were functionally tied directly to the exchange of goods and services, then that statement might be true, but I don't think that is the case.  The value of bitcoin seems to be directly tied to the value of the world's fiat currencies and indirectly tied to the exchange of goods and services.  So, if the value of the US dollar crashed, then the value of bitcoin would crash proportionately.  How would the purchasing power of bitcoin increase (in terms of good and services) if the US dollar declined in value?

It seems that you are missing a few things

Right now, Bitcoin is not involved in the exchange of goods and services, at least, not to any significant degree and it's true. But that doesn't mean that its value is tied to the value of the US dollar, or any other dollar, for that matter. While Bitcoin is not a currency as a means of exchange, it still has its own value as a speculative asset and, at the same time, as a store of value. Its value can't be possibly tied to any currency since it is not that currency, as simple as it gets. To better understand and see that it is really so, look at the gold price changes over long term. When the Fed started its QE's and dollar lost half of its value, gold, according to your logic, should have lost its value too while in fact it rose a few times (since 2008 till 2011 when the Fed stopped QE-ing)



The same is equally applicable to Bitcoin

[cjmoles]

I see many people in this thread stating that if the value of the US dollar collapsed, then the value of bitcoin would increase.  However, I don't see how those two events are inversely related.  In my mind, if bitcoin were functionally tied directly to the exchange of goods and services, then that statement might be true, but I don't think that is the case.  The value of bitcoin seems to be directly tied to the value of the world's fiat currencies and indirectly tied to the exchange of goods and services.  So, if the value of the US dollar crashed, then the value of bitcoin would crash proportionately.  How would the purchasing power of bitcoin increase (in terms of good and services) if the US dollar declined in value?

It seems that you are missing a few things

Right now, Bitcoin is not involved in the exchange of goods and services, at least, not to any significant degree and it's true. But that doesn't mean that its value is tied to the value of the US dollar, or any other dollar, for that matter. While Bitcoin is not a currency as a means of exchange, it still has its own value as a speculative asset and, at the same time, as a store of value. Its value can't be possibly tied to any currency since it is not that currency, as simple as it gets. To better understand and see that it is really so, look at the gold price changes over long term. When the Fed started its QE's and dollar lost half of its value, gold, according to your logic, should have lost its value too while in fact it rose a few times (since 2008 till 2011 when the Fed stopped QE-ing)



The same is equally applicable to Bitcoin

This is what I'm wondering....if the dollar lost 90 percent of it's purchasing power and I wanted to purchase some offline goods, could I buy more goods with bitcoin or would I get more with USD?  Say 1 BTC = $1000 and $1000 will buy 1000 beers.....if suddenly $1000 could only buy 100 beers.....how many beers could I buy with 1 BTC and why?

[STT]

The bitcoin is not a type of dollar, this is weird thing to think about especially if you live in USA and all you do is count in dollars so your whole perspective is money is dollars.  

So if dollars buys 10x less of something and its not because beer got rare but dollars got weak demand then at that point bitcoin will retain its ability to buy those 1000 beers with just the same amount.    
Over time what happens is people who earn dollars will produce more beer themselves (also consume less).   So they'll use dollars to buy ingredients for the beer and they'll apply their own labour to produce.    The big banksters tend to think money printing is a kind of productive exercise in this way.   Either way its not static but theres no reason for bitcoin to move downwards with dollar unless its only users were from USA, if thats the case then the customer base is less wealthy maybe its arguable.

The Question answer is 1 bitcoin will equal 1000 beers  and $10,000 will equal 1000 beers so you have a new exchange rate of 1 btc to $10,000
Im not suggesting the world is this simple or so static but thats closer to the truth.


Some will think this example is similar and applies to oil and fracking, OPEC complicated that

[cjmoles]

The bitcoin is not a type of dollar, this is weird thing to think about especially if you live in USA and all you do is count in dollars so your whole perspective is money is dollars.  

So if dollars buys 10x less of something and its not because beer got rare but dollars got weak demand then at that point bitcoin will retain its ability to buy those 1000 beers with just the same amount.    
Over time what happens is people who earn dollars will produce more beer themselves (also consume less).   So they'll use dollars to buy ingredients for the beer and they'll apply their own labour to produce.    The big banksters tend to think money printing is a kind of productive exercise in this way.   Either way its not static but theres no reason for bitcoin to move downwards with dollar unless its only users were from USA, if thats the case then the customer base is less wealthy maybe its arguable.

The Question answer is 1 bitcoin will equal 1000 beers  and $10,000 will equal 1000 beers so you have a new exchange rate of 1 btc to $10,000
Im not suggesting the world is this simple or so static but thats closer to the truth.


Some will think this example is similar and applies to oil and fracking, OPEC complicated that

Yes...that's the logical answer, but what market force drives the value of BTC up in relation to the USD?  In other words, what mechanism is responsible for creating the new exchange rate of 1 BTC for $10,000?  As the dollar loses purchasing power, there will be less disposable income for which to invest, so what's driving the ratio of the market pair?  At which point does liquidating investments to compensate the loss in purchasing power become a factor, as opposed to having disposable income for which to gamble on the markets?....All I'm thinking is that confidence in BTC relies heavily on the confidence in the US dollar....if the US dollar starts crashing, BTC is going with it because USD is what pays the bills!  <--- purchasing power....right?

[STT]

Right now US dollar is center of the world but if you consider the population and the wider global dynamics then it doesnt have to be this way.     In the past the tiny UK Sterling was the worlds reserve currency but at that time it was also operating the largest empire thats ever been so it had alot of trade under its umbrella.

Bitcoin doesnt have a giant amount of trade and so is not greatly independent from the dollar (like a country might be) but it is global, there is not just one country visiting these forums.   I realise USA is the richest country in the world and not all voices are equal in money terms but I do count the population over the world and start there as a comparison for what happens next.    The reason I do that is because I believe all humans are equal and so to are equally capable of producing money or goods or utility which allows for purchasing power and so bitcoin is tied to the world and this larger population more then just USA dollar.    

I dont think bitcoin will sink with US dollar, not in a 1:1 ratio at least.   It should rise in price as dollar declines due to excessive money printing vs its growing GDP;  also possible is bitcoin gains a premium for being more reliable then dollar.     The thing to remember with USA dollar is they benefit from support globally, so is this trend increasing where the world will keep defaulting to US dollar for trade or is it true in general that technology and political progression is advancing money beyond just US dollar and its flaws with Washington politics and bias (not beneficial to 'fair trade')

Recently its noted that OPEC is not the power it once was, well alot of OPEC trade is done in dollars where countries trade and hold in reserve US dollar in order to be in that world oil market.   You have declining influence there

[winspiral]

I hope not.
It can go little down...but slowly.

[cjmoles]

Right now US dollar is center of the world but if you consider the population and the wider global dynamics then it doesnt have to be this way.     In the past the tiny UK Sterling was the worlds reserve currency but at that time it was also operating the largest empire thats ever been so it had alot of trade under its umbrella.

Bitcoin doesnt have a giant amount of trade and so is not greatly independent from the dollar (like a country might be) but it is global, there is not just one country visiting these forums.   I realise USA is the richest country in the world and not all voices are equal in money terms but I do count the population over the world and start there as a comparison for what happens next.    The reason I do that is because I believe all humans are equal and so to are equally capable of producing money or goods or utility which allows for purchasing power and so bitcoin is tied to the world and this larger population more then just USA dollar.    

I dont think bitcoin will sink with US dollar, not in a 1:1 ratio at least.   It should rise in price as dollar declines due to excessive money printing vs its growing GDP;  also possible is bitcoin gains a premium for being more reliable then dollar.     The thing to remember with USA dollar is they benefit from support globally, so is this trend increasing where the world will keep defaulting to US dollar for trade or is it true in general that technology and political progression is advancing money beyond just US dollar and its flaws with Washington politics and bias (not beneficial to 'fair trade')

Recently its noted that OPEC is not the power it once was, well alot of OPEC trade is done in dollars where countries trade and hold in reserve US dollar in order to be in that world oil market.   You have declining influence there

Yes, I agree....it doesn't have to be this way, but it is this way.  And, as long as the US dollar is the unit used to make and measure purchases, then it will remain this way....If the dollar buys less oil, more dollars will be needed to purchase the required amount of oil, but where will these dollars come from?  They will have to come from the liquidation of investments, including bitcoin.  It's hard to separate a currency's value as a medium of exchange from the currency's ability to store wealth and still adhere to the laws of economics in a coherent argument....bitcoin does break some of those rules, but to what extant?  If the dollar buys less, bitcoin buys less....at least until the order of things change.  Right?

[Shady]

A crash comes each time there is a president due to fear, but recovers... This is first revival in the investment cycle since the Dot Com Bubble + other large tech companies crashing.

If you compare Yahoo and other corporations who made it alive, the prices are looking nice enough to last. Over the course of the next 20 years recessions will likely remain hidden or be less than expected. This is the start of the good times across the planet as more revenue streams remain active rather than left forgotten.

[wuvdoll]

I hope not.
It can go little down...but slowly.

Yes, it is no surprise that by the end of the year we might see the price of bitcoin go over the 900$ mark again, but I don't think we will see a change in the market like people start using it and governments making it as an official currency , but next year we might see some big changes since the bitcoin might go over to the 1000$ .

[deisik]

Yes, I agree....it doesn't have to be this way, but it is this way.  And, as long as the US dollar is the unit used to make and measure purchases, then it will remain this way....If the dollar buys less oil, more dollars will be needed to purchase the required amount of oil, but where will these dollars come from?  They will have to come from the liquidation of investments, including bitcoin.  It's hard to separate a currency's value as a medium of exchange from the currency's ability to store wealth and still adhere to the laws of economics in a coherent argument....bitcoin does break some of those rules, but to what extant?  If the dollar buys less, bitcoin buys less....at least until the order of things change.  Right?

What rules does it break exactly?

I guess I can tell what makes you think that Bitcoin breaks some laws of economics. You come to think so because you consider it as a currency while it is an erroneous assumption which leads you to wrong conclusions. Bitcoin is mostly a speculative asset as of yet (a digital tulip of sorts), and it should be judged based on these premises. Once you proceed in your reasoning from that, you will likely see that there is nothing particularly wrong with Bitcoin in regard to the laws of economics which it allegedly violates

[Xester]

I hope not.
It can go little down...but slowly.

Yes, it is no surprise that by the end of the year we might see the price of bitcoin go over the 900$ mark again, but I don't think we will see a change in the market like people start using it and governments making it as an official currency , but next year we might see some big changes since the bitcoin might go over to the 1000$ .

I am actually expecting that bitcoin may reach 1000$ this December but sad to say it did not reach that but it is still good news since there is a price inflation going on. Well, probably next year Bitcoin will reach more then one thousand dollars each possibly it may jump up to 1500$ but who knows maybe much larger. With that we just need to hold some coins just in case the huge inflation occurs.

[egghead123]

[ArdiPrabowo]

in few time bitcoin price can't big crash
very long time to big down price
is down price can't under 700 dollar, is support price , extrem price in 700 dollar

to egghead123 in last picture if 1/8 overshot, what is name indicator

[egghead123]

to egghead123 in last picture if 1/8 overshot, what is name indicator

murrey_math

[carlisle1]

I hope not.
It can go little down...but slowly.

Yes, it is no surprise that by the end of the year we might see the price of bitcoin go over the 900$ mark again, but I don't think we will see a change in the market like people start using it and governments making it as an official currency , but next year we might see some big changes since the bitcoin might go over to the 1000$ .

I am actually expecting that bitcoin may reach 1000$ this December but sad to say it did not reach that but it is still good news since there is a price inflation going on. Well, probably next year Bitcoin will reach more then one thousand dollars each possibly it may jump up to 1500$ but who knows maybe much larger. With that we just need to hold some coins just in case the huge inflation occurs.

it can be possible for bitcoin to reach 1000 dollars or higher but we are not sure if this will really happen next year, that is not the only thing that may happen, it is also possible that the price will slowly go down . there's nothing wrong to expect for much higher price but we should look also to other possibilities as we are not able to accurately predict what will happen in the future .

[jaysabi]

I shall weigh in my 1 satoshi worth of opinion here:  it isn't just bitcoin that's survived 2016 intact and strong... look at the British pound and US dollar, each not just surviving their respective "catastrophes" of Brexit and Trump victory but pulling impressive numbers.

Globally, the slump from the oil euphoria of 3 years ago still hasn't quite taken hold.

Instead, economies in Asia took a battering, taking quite a lot of people by surprise.

So in 2017? I think is a year of consolidation.

There has been nothing impressive about the British Pound. It's fallen from a value of $1.46 USD in June to $1.23 now. That's a 15% drop and it's near the bottom, there's been no recovery. A 15% depreciation is massive for a currency. There's nothing there to be thankful for, and it's certainly not "strong."

[jaysabi]

Right now US dollar is center of the world but if you consider the population and the wider global dynamics then it doesnt have to be this way.     In the past the tiny UK Sterling was the worlds reserve currency but at that time it was also operating the largest empire thats ever been so it had alot of trade under its umbrella.

It's not a democracy, people don't vote on what they want to be a stable currency. It happens because of the economy underlying the currency. The reason the GBP was the world's reserve currency before the USD was because of the might of the British Empire and economy. Same now for the USD. China could have a global reserve currency (in fact, they're trying), but no one trusts them. They're far too eager to cheat to achieve what they want, which zaps credibility from any currency you establish. If people don't trust the currency to have value, it won't.