Big Crash coming

[trigger1975]

Yes we can expect a huge crash very soon because I think we did it too fast, the price has raised to fast so it will fall most likely.

bitcoin is just reduced 100$ from 1160 to 960$ . so the crash and again Increase is just a usual thing. I don't think we'll see any big crash which can be a disaster for bitcoin. bitcoin can get dumped to 700$ but I don't think it will go lower than that.

700 US$ -- interesting definition of "a disaster".  I think the range 750-800 would be currently very healthy.  The pump last weeks was way too fast and a bounce at the ATH was clearly coming.  So I think it'll go down for now.  Maybe 720.  Then bounce back and will stop somewhere b/w 750 and 800.  Then again I'm expecting it to climb -- but hope this time it'll be slowly.

Just my 2 Satoshi.
//alex

[VancityBlockchain]

Yeah I doubt that. Why? What would trigger a crash in 2016? People claim there's gonna be a crash every year.

Yeah I'm skeptical about this overly dramatic doomsday crash as well, but I did read about there being a similar crash (2008/09 housing) related to car financing coming up, probably not as intense. We'll see though. I think the ETF things the Winklevoss are trying to spearhead will have a large affect on bitcoin price this year though.

2008/2009 crash is caused by subprime mortgage.

Exactly, It was caused by allowing americans to take out mortgages (on homes) they really couldn't afford if interest rates went up. The lenders of those mortgages bundled them into securities and sold to large investment banks and insurance providers. Rates went up, and a ripple effect of defaults occured... What I'm saying is apparently there's a similar thing going on with car loans that americans can't really afford.

[jaysabi]

Yes we can expect a huge crash very soon because I think we did it too fast, the price has raised to fast so it will fall most likely.

bitcoin is just reduced 100$ from 1160 to 960$ . so the crash and again Increase is just a usual thing. I don't think we'll see any big crash which can be a disaster for bitcoin. bitcoin can get dumped to 700$ but I don't think it will go lower than that.

You are wrong, bitcoin can drop its price up to 300$ this year. China this september of 2017 will start its release of their fiat digital currency in their country. This will possibly trigger a huge dump by Chinese people. This is just a possibility but there is a huge possibility that it will happen. But let us not give up our hope in bitcoin when we do then bitcoin will actually suffer a big loss.

A Chinese digital currency wouldn't cause a btc price crash because people in China don't buy Bitcoin to use as a digital currency. They use it to get around capital controls imposed by the state and transfer money out of the country. Since a Chinese digital currency wouldn't address either of these uses, there's no reason to expect it to have a direct impact on the price of btc.

[cryp24x]

Yes we can expect a huge crash very soon because I think we did it too fast, the price has raised to fast so it will fall most likely.

bitcoin is just reduced 100$ from 1160 to 960$ . so the crash and again Increase is just a usual thing. I don't think we'll see any big crash which can be a disaster for bitcoin. bitcoin can get dumped to 700$ but I don't think it will go lower than that.

700 US$ -- interesting definition of "a disaster".  I think the range 750-800 would be currently very healthy.  The pump last weeks was way too fast and a bounce at the ATH was clearly coming.  So I think it'll go down for now.  Maybe 720.  Then bounce back and will stop somewhere b/w 750 and 800.  Then again I'm expecting it to climb -- but hope this time it'll be slowly.

Just my 2 Satoshi.
//alex

I agree that $800 would be a healthy price of bitcoin.  I don't know why people never learn that whenever something had a steep spike, the next thing to happen is crash in price.  People will usually cashout when profit is seen.

[Nthused]

Fuck 800 the standard to get every Joe into it should be 250 -300 and were talking USD  

[MMA]

It took some time but the crash were expected, in fact i never thinked bitcoin would achieve soo far, it went into 1100 dollars without anything besides the possible huge interest from some countries, this year should bring more players into bitcoin as well crypto world.

we are not expecting any crash. because there is nothing wrong related to bitcoin and ever thing is going smooth, therefore i think we can only expect a little correction that is already taking the bitcoin price, other wise there is still good potential to the price of bitcoin.

[deisik]

Yeah I doubt that. Why? What would trigger a crash in 2016? People claim there's gonna be a crash every year.

Yeah I'm skeptical about this overly dramatic doomsday crash as well, but I did read about there being a similar crash (2008/09 housing) related to car financing coming up, probably not as intense. We'll see though. I think the ETF things the Winklevoss are trying to spearhead will have a large affect on bitcoin price this year though.

2008/2009 crash is caused by subprime mortgage.

Exactly, It was caused by allowing americans to take out mortgages (on homes) they really couldn't afford if interest rates went up. The lenders of those mortgages bundled them into securities and sold to large investment banks and insurance providers. Rates went up, and a ripple effect of defaults occured... What I'm saying is apparently there's a similar thing going on with car loans that americans can't really afford

I don't think that car loans and defaults due to inability to pay them will have any dramatic effect on the markets as it happened in 2008 when the Fed had to bail out major banks considered too big to fail and start a series of quantitative easings after that. Cars are much cheaper than houses overall. Really, how many cars do you know that cost half a million dollars or more? Further, cars are not as endurable and lasting as houses so banks giving such loans should have taken into account this...

And last but not least, it is easier to sequester a car than a house, especially if you and your family live there (small children and such things)

[trigger1975]

Fuck 800 the standard to get every Joe into it should be 250 -300 and were talking USD  

Agreed.  The problem is: if every "Joe" wants to get their coins, the'll drive the price way up again.  This doesn't work with the regular principle of exchanges.    And, if you want more people using Bitcoin it needs to even be lower.  At the end it's something magical to have at least 1 BTC. Not 0.01, not 0.0001 not only 1 Satoshi.  Everybody wants to own 1 BTC.

//alex

[trigger1975]

because there is nothing wrong related to bitcoin and ever thing is going smooth, […]

You mean that the fees are way too high and there is no more space in blocks which delays payments now way too much?  You mean that SegWit maybe is coming, maybe not.  You mean that the devs are split into two fighting groups which are not able to overcome the main issue we see nowadays with block size and payment delay?  There is a lot of things which need improvements.  Especially for that what we all hope: more people using Bitcoin.  That'll not happen with current system as it does not upscale in any way.

Just my 2 Satoshi.

//alex

[VancityBlockchain]

Yeah I doubt that. Why? What would trigger a crash in 2016? People claim there's gonna be a crash every year.

Yeah I'm skeptical about this overly dramatic doomsday crash as well, but I did read about there being a similar crash (2008/09 housing) related to car financing coming up, probably not as intense. We'll see though. I think the ETF things the Winklevoss are trying to spearhead will have a large affect on bitcoin price this year though.

2008/2009 crash is caused by subprime mortgage.

Exactly, It was caused by allowing americans to take out mortgages (on homes) they really couldn't afford if interest rates went up. The lenders of those mortgages bundled them into securities and sold to large investment banks and insurance providers. Rates went up, and a ripple effect of defaults occured... What I'm saying is apparently there's a similar thing going on with car loans that americans can't really afford

I don't think that car loans and defaults due to inability to pay them will have any dramatic effect on the markets as it happened in 2008 when the Fed had to bail out major banks considered too big too fail and start a series of quantitative easings after that. Cars are much cheaper than houses overall. Really, how many cars do you know that cost half a million dollars or more? Further, cars are not as endurable and lasting as houses so banks giving such loans should have taken into account this...

And last but not least, it is easier to sequester a car than a house, especially if you and your family live there (small children and such things)

Yes, those are all good points.

It looks like the car loans are about 12% what mortgages are plus the other minimizing factors you pointed out. I agree, won't have much of an effect. Will be interesting to see what comes of it!

[iwandhdumas2003]

Just to let you guys know a big crash is coming in 2016 in the economy. There is going to be a huge financial crisis but it will be worse than 2009.

The bitcoin price will skyrocket to over $10,000. However  bitcoin will be banned in all western countries. If you are reading this living in the west you should make preparations to move to Russia or China they are the only places you will be safe owning bitcoins.

The crisis will be so big it will destroy entire countries and in 2017 there will be a civil war in the USA, UK and western europe. After this the world will never be the same again it will change so much by 2020 it will be unrecognizable compared to today.

Oh such a big prediction, hope this is not real and bitcoins are kept using worldwide and how can the government catch me when the transactions are anonymous and I surf with a proxy.

[mrcash02]

because there is nothing wrong related to bitcoin and ever thing is going smooth, […]

You mean that the fees are way too high and there is no more space in blocks which delays payments now way too much?  You mean that SegWit maybe is coming, maybe not.  You mean that the devs are split into two fighting groups which are not able to overcome the main issue we see nowadays with block size and payment delay?  There is a lot of things which need improvements.  Especially for that what we all hope: more people using Bitcoin.  That'll not happen with current system as it does not upscale in any way.

Just my 2 Satoshi.

//alex

I think to have more people using Bitcoins, first this issue with transactions delays must be solved. Doesn't worth to have lots of Bitcoin enthusiasts having issues everytime to make transactions because the network is overloaded. They will probably lose interest in Bitcoins and give a bad feedback about it, weaking Bitcoins and rising another currency. It's not good for Bitcoin, first of all it's necessary to fix the issues, next bring more people to use it.

[crasypeople]

Just to let you guys know a big crash is coming in 2016 in the economy. There is going to be a huge financial crisis but it will be worse than 2009.

The bitcoin price will skyrocket to over $10,000. However  bitcoin will be banned in all western countries. If you are reading this living in the west you should make preparations to move to Russia or China they are the only places you will be safe owning bitcoins.

The crisis will be so big it will destroy entire countries and in 2017 there will be a civil war in the USA, UK and western europe. After this the world will never be the same again it will change so much by 2020 it will be unrecognizable compared to today.

if bitcoin will be banned in usa and china then it wil be the end of bitcoin..

[STT]

Car loans really count as unsecured debt.  Houses adjust for inflation generally but cars depreciate almost 30% immediately.

Housing is often good business, it did get a bad name but its highly practical.   How many people you know stick to owning a purely practical mini type car, its common to waste money on cars more.

If I hear car debt I think credit card debt.  MBNA just recently got bought up and its a potential negative for that buyer but a profit no doubt each year before any crash / spike in rates

if bitcoin will be banned in usa and china then it wil be the end of bitcoin..

Some might suppose this is a large marker for the end of USA if they turn away from freedom and liberty

[Gyfts]

Fear mongering, what's new?

Honestly, under a Trump administration, a conservative hand of the government and reduced spending won't be causing an economic crash. Stock market's been booming lately. Under a Clinton administration, I could see it.

[lol3c]

Just to let you guys know a big crash is coming in 2016 in the economy. There is going to be a huge financial crisis but it will be worse than 2009.

The bitcoin price will skyrocket to over $10,000. However  bitcoin will be banned in all western countries. If you are reading this living in the west you should make preparations to move to Russia or China they are the only places you will be safe owning bitcoins.

The crisis will be so big it will destroy entire countries and in 2017 there will be a civil war in the USA, UK and western europe. After this the world will never be the same again it will change so much by 2020 it will be unrecognizable compared to today.

if bitcoin will be banned in usa and china then it wil be the end of bitcoin..

I think the bitcoin price will even higher if they ever ban Bitcoin. Those laws will directly affect Bitcoin in many ways. The restrictions can cause many negative and even positive effect. However, there is no way to ban Bitcoin since there are too many people are using it right now. Banning can only cause chaos and war.

[Fatanut]

Just to let you guys know a big crash is coming in 2016 in the economy. There is going to be a huge financial crisis but it will be worse than 2009.

The bitcoin price will skyrocket to over $10,000. However  bitcoin will be banned in all western countries. If you are reading this living in the west you should make preparations to move to Russia or China they are the only places you will be safe owning bitcoins.

The crisis will be so big it will destroy entire countries and in 2017 there will be a civil war in the USA, UK and western europe. After this the world will never be the same again it will change so much by 2020 it will be unrecognizable compared to today.

if bitcoin will be banned in usa and china then it wil be the end of bitcoin..

I think the bitcoin price will even higher if they ever ban Bitcoin. Those laws will directly affect Bitcoin in many ways. The restrictions can cause many negative and even positive effect. However, there is no way to ban Bitcoin since there are too many people are using it right now. Banning can only cause chaos and war.

In what way would the law of banning bitcoins affect bitcoin positively? You said many ways, please give us one. The only one I can think of is that banning bitcoins in USA and China will put bitcoin in the news which would somehow serve as an advertisement about bitcoin that would introduce bitcoin to millions of people.

I don't think "too many people" is the appropriate wordings to call us. If you compare a less than million of people to 7 billion people, I think we're hardly a handful.

Banning bitcoins would cause opening up a lot of threads and discussions but chaos and war is far from reality. What exactly are we going to do? Rally? In a country, there's just a few thousand of bitcoin users and most don't even want to do social stuffs, let alone rallying. We can't even start a war on the internet. We're not hackers to do something bad to the government or leak confidential issues of the government.

[jaysabi]

Yeah I doubt that. Why? What would trigger a crash in 2016? People claim there's gonna be a crash every year.

Yeah I'm skeptical about this overly dramatic doomsday crash as well, but I did read about there being a similar crash (2008/09 housing) related to car financing coming up, probably not as intense. We'll see though. I think the ETF things the Winklevoss are trying to spearhead will have a large affect on bitcoin price this year though.

2008/2009 crash is caused by subprime mortgage.

Exactly, It was caused by allowing americans to take out mortgages (on homes) they really couldn't afford if interest rates went up. The lenders of those mortgages bundled them into securities and sold to large investment banks and insurance providers. Rates went up, and a ripple effect of defaults occured... What I'm saying is apparently there's a similar thing going on with car loans that americans can't really afford

I don't think that car loans and defaults due to inability to pay them will have any dramatic effect on the markets as it happened in 2008 when the Fed had to bail out major banks considered too big to fail and start a series of quantitative easings after that. Cars are much cheaper than houses overall. Really, how many cars do you know that cost half a million dollars or more? Further, cars are not as endurable and lasting as houses so banks giving such loans should have taken into account this...

And last but not least, it is easier to sequester a car than a house, especially if you and your family live there (small children and such things)

Taking control of the underlying asset wasn't the problem, it was all the leveraged derivatives placed on top the underlying initial asset that were rolled into complex and illiquid investment vehicles so that when defaults happened, the losses were 1) amplified by the leverage and 2) frozen because they were illiquid. Those two factors caused the entire financial sector to seize up, and without access to capital, large firms started failing in what would have been a domino effect without government intervention. So the fact that cars are easier to repossess than houses doesn't alleviate the problem if those two conditions are not addressed.

[deisik]

Yeah I doubt that. Why? What would trigger a crash in 2016? People claim there's gonna be a crash every year.

Yeah I'm skeptical about this overly dramatic doomsday crash as well, but I did read about there being a similar crash (2008/09 housing) related to car financing coming up, probably not as intense. We'll see though. I think the ETF things the Winklevoss are trying to spearhead will have a large affect on bitcoin price this year though.

2008/2009 crash is caused by subprime mortgage.

Exactly, It was caused by allowing americans to take out mortgages (on homes) they really couldn't afford if interest rates went up. The lenders of those mortgages bundled them into securities and sold to large investment banks and insurance providers. Rates went up, and a ripple effect of defaults occured... What I'm saying is apparently there's a similar thing going on with car loans that americans can't really afford

I don't think that car loans and defaults due to inability to pay them will have any dramatic effect on the markets as it happened in 2008 when the Fed had to bail out major banks considered too big to fail and start a series of quantitative easings after that. Cars are much cheaper than houses overall. Really, how many cars do you know that cost half a million dollars or more? Further, cars are not as endurable and lasting as houses so banks giving such loans should have taken into account this...

And last but not least, it is easier to sequester a car than a house, especially if you and your family live there (small children and such things)

Taking control of the underlying asset wasn't the problem, it was all the leveraged derivatives placed on top the underlying initial asset that were rolled into complex and illiquid investment vehicles so that when defaults happened, the losses were 1) amplified by the leverage and 2) frozen because they were illiquid. Those two factors caused the entire financial sector to seize up, and without access to capital, large firms started failing in what would have been a domino effect without government intervention. So the fact that cars are easier to repossess than houses doesn't alleviate the problem if those two conditions are not addressed.

What's the purpose in taking control over something which immediately starts losing its value on the first use? I guess the expenses might heavily outweigh the potential proceeds from selling these cars. In fact, I heard and read a lot about subprime mortgage crisis in the US (I remember that I even watched some movie about that, was it Billions?), but it was only yesterday that I read here about car loans that could potentially cause a similar financial crisis. How likely is that? How likely that those two conditions you refer to are ever to emerge in the first place?

As to me, it looks more like a storm in a tea-cup (or something like once bitten, twice shy)

[jaysabi]

Yeah I doubt that. Why? What would trigger a crash in 2016? People claim there's gonna be a crash every year.

Yeah I'm skeptical about this overly dramatic doomsday crash as well, but I did read about there being a similar crash (2008/09 housing) related to car financing coming up, probably not as intense. We'll see though. I think the ETF things the Winklevoss are trying to spearhead will have a large affect on bitcoin price this year though.

2008/2009 crash is caused by subprime mortgage.

Exactly, It was caused by allowing americans to take out mortgages (on homes) they really couldn't afford if interest rates went up. The lenders of those mortgages bundled them into securities and sold to large investment banks and insurance providers. Rates went up, and a ripple effect of defaults occured... What I'm saying is apparently there's a similar thing going on with car loans that americans can't really afford

I don't think that car loans and defaults due to inability to pay them will have any dramatic effect on the markets as it happened in 2008 when the Fed had to bail out major banks considered too big to fail and start a series of quantitative easings after that. Cars are much cheaper than houses overall. Really, how many cars do you know that cost half a million dollars or more? Further, cars are not as endurable and lasting as houses so banks giving such loans should have taken into account this...

And last but not least, it is easier to sequester a car than a house, especially if you and your family live there (small children and such things)

Taking control of the underlying asset wasn't the problem, it was all the leveraged derivatives placed on top the underlying initial asset that were rolled into complex and illiquid investment vehicles so that when defaults happened, the losses were 1) amplified by the leverage and 2) frozen because they were illiquid. Those two factors caused the entire financial sector to seize up, and without access to capital, large firms started failing in what would have been a domino effect without government intervention. So the fact that cars are easier to repossess than houses doesn't alleviate the problem if those two conditions are not addressed.

What's the purpose in taking control over something which immediately starts losing its value on the first use? I guess the expenses might heavily outweigh the potential proceeds from selling these cars. In fact, I heard and read a lot about subprime mortgage crisis in the US (I remember that I even watched some movie about that, was it Billions?), but it was only yesterday that I read here about car loans that could potentially cause a similar financial crisis. How likely is that? How likely that those two conditions you refer to are ever to emerge in the first place?

As to me, it looks more like a storm in a tea-cup (or something like once bitten, twice shy)

By "sequester," I thought you meant repossess. If that's not the case, that point isn't relevant.

The same two conditions do exist for subprime car loans, that's the point in drawing the analogy. Nothing has changed with the process, it's just a new risky security at the heart of it: subprime auto loans. The auto loans still have levered derivatives built on top of them, and the loans and the derivatives are both rolled into convoluted investment vehicles that are layered and complex to the point of reducing liquidity. When the investments are that layered, you can't dispose of the toxic parts easily, which was the problem with the housing crisis. Loans were defaulting, but it was impossible to know who owned them or how they impacted the overall vehicles they were rolled into, so everyone stopped all transactions involving them. Same thing with the auto loans now, the point is that it doesn't take a very large portion of the original loans to default to cause large problems because the effects are amplified by the leverage and the low liquidity.

But you also may be on to something in that there is a level of hype due to how bad it was last time. There's really no way to know which until something goes horribly wrong or doesn't.