🌟🎲🌟 MoneyPot.com

[CrazyCraig]

Since everyone has been patiently waiting, I wanted to give a quick update: Testing for several v2 methods were tested behind the scenes late last night. It went off without a hitch. There was some tiny issues but nothing serious and I was quick to address the issues. We will be doing more testing in the coming days to ensure that the API is production worthy.

We still do not have a release date for API v2. There are still several things that need to be addressed and verified to ensure a smooth transition. Im merely updating on the progress.

[dooglus]

if [...] you are inferring that one of our team is cheating the bankroll, you would be incorrect

I don't see how you can be certain of that. Why is it not possible that one of the team is cheating the bankroll, given that people other than yourself have access to the server and could cheat in an undetectable manner.

I am in since profit was 425+ BTC.  Current profit is around 85 BTC. 

Is booking loss and divesting good?  I do not see any sign that it will go up anytime soooooon.

According to https://dicesites.com/moneypot the profit is 541.6 BTC, but 334.7 BTC (62%) went to the app owners and 126.4 BTC (23%) went to MoneyPot itself, leaving just 80.4 BTC (15%) for the investors. I'm not sure how that is worked out, but when investors are taking ~100% of the risk it doesn't seem fair that they get only 15% of the profit when the expected and actual profits are so close together. It's like the investors are paying an 85% commission on their profits.

To the extent that (a) you will not need your investment in the medium term, (b) trust that the owners of MP are not cheating the owners of the bankroll and (c) believe that MP will continue to have similar or greater betting volumes then you should keep your investment.

Do also need to (d) trust that there isn't some exploit allowing a third party to cheat.

[BoXXoB]

According to https://dicesites.com/moneypot the profit is 541.6 BTC, but 334.7 BTC (62%) went to the app owners and 126.4 BTC (23%) went to MoneyPot itself, leaving just 80.4 BTC (15%) for the investors. I'm not sure how that is worked out, but when investors are taking ~100% of the risk it doesn't seem fair that they get only 15% of the profit when the expected and actual profits are so close together. It's like the investors are paying an 85% commission on their profits.

Didn't realize the numbers were that awful! Won't consider investing into MP if the numbers are like that. Seems more like a ripoff to me as a mere 15% cut of the profit is a ridiculousl low number considering they're the ones taking all the risk while others feast on their money with basically no risk at all.

[superbit]

According to https://dicesites.com/moneypot the profit is 541.6 BTC, but 334.7 BTC (62%) went to the app owners and 126.4 BTC (23%) went to MoneyPot itself, leaving just 80.4 BTC (15%) for the investors. I'm not sure how that is worked out, but when investors are taking ~100% of the risk it doesn't seem fair that they get only 15% of the profit when the expected and actual profits are so close together. It's like the investors are paying an 85% commission on their profits.

Didn't realize the numbers were that awful! Won't consider investing into MP if the numbers are like that. Seems more like a ripoff to me as a mere 15% cut of the profit is a ridiculousl low number considering they're the ones taking all the risk while others feast on their money with basically no risk at all.

Agreed, that is absolutely atrocious if that is the case.

[NLNico]

Note that the expected profit for investors is 30% of the house edge. So like a 70% commission based on wagered - not on profits (= extra variance ) This is calculated on my site completely based on stats but also described in the MP FAQ:

What commissions do you charge?
MoneyPot charges 20% commission on the house edge of all wagered bets. Furthermore to this, all apps are paid a commission of up to 50% of the house edge. So this means if someone bets 1 BTC with a house edge of 1%, from the investors perspective it is much more similiar to a 0.3% house edge bet, as the investors give the app half the house edge (in this case 0.005 BTC) in comission and 20% of the house edge to Moneypot.

IMO it is not necessarily unfair as long as it's clear to investors (and FAQ seems clear to me.) It's up to the investors to "invest" money or not. Personally I never really invested because it doesn't seem worth the risk based on expected (with that commission.) But still there is 765 BTC invested, so I guess some still find it acceptable.

[BoXXoB]

Note that the expected profit for investors is 30% of the house edge. So like a 70% commission based on wagered - not on profits (= extra variance ) This is calculated on my site completely based on stats but also described in the MP FAQ:

What commissions do you charge?
MoneyPot charges 20% commission on the house edge of all wagered bets. Furthermore to this, all apps are paid a commission of up to 50% of the house edge. So this means if someone bets 1 BTC with a house edge of 1%, from the investors perspective it is much more similiar to a 0.3% house edge bet, as the investors give the app half the house edge (in this case 0.005 BTC) in comission and 20% of the house edge to Moneypot.

IMO it is not necessarily unfair as long as it's clear to investors (and FAQ seems clear to me.) It's up to the investors to "invest" money or not. Personally I never really invested because it doesn't seem worth the risk based on expected (with that commission.) But still there is 765 BTC invested, so I guess some still find it acceptable.

Yeah as long as all the information is laid out I see no harm obviously. It's indeed users' own choice whether to invest or not.

[fiscorcle]

if [...] you are inferring that one of our team is cheating the bankroll, you would be incorrect

I don't see how you can be certain of that. Why is it not possible that one of the team is cheating the bankroll, given that people other than yourself have access to the server and could cheat in an undetectable manner.

I am in since profit was 425+ BTC.  Current profit is around 85 BTC.  

Is booking loss and divesting good?  I do not see any sign that it will go up anytime soooooon.

According to https://dicesites.com/moneypot the profit is 541.6 BTC, but 334.7 BTC (62%) went to the app owners and 126.4 BTC (23%) went to MoneyPot itself, leaving just 80.4 BTC (15%) for the investors. I'm not sure how that is worked out, but when investors are taking ~100% of the risk it doesn't seem fair that they get only 15% of the profit when the expected and actual profits are so close together. It's like the investors are paying an 85% commission on their profits.

To the extent that (a) you will not need your investment in the medium term, (b) trust that the owners of MP are not cheating the owners of the bankroll and (c) believe that MP will continue to have similar or greater betting volumes then you should keep your investment.

Do also need to (d) trust that there isn't some exploit allowing a third party to cheat.

What the actual f Dooglus?  Blatant Libel?

You know very well that we don't take that much commission and you are intentionally misleading our customers and directly hurting us on purpose (70 Bitcoin withdrawn immediately after your comment).  

We take 20% of the house edge (less than Dean's 25% of house edge and 25% profit, or Bit-Dice's 30% of house edge), give 50% of the house edge to app owners (because there are multiple sites that investors connect to), and investors are subject to 30% of the house edge.

Those are expected percentages though....your % and the app owners % are guaranteed, but not investors

[BoXXoB]

if [...] you are inferring that one of our team is cheating the bankroll, you would be incorrect

I don't see how you can be certain of that. Why is it not possible that one of the team is cheating the bankroll, given that people other than yourself have access to the server and could cheat in an undetectable manner.

I am in since profit was 425+ BTC.  Current profit is around 85 BTC.  

Is booking loss and divesting good?  I do not see any sign that it will go up anytime soooooon.

According to https://dicesites.com/moneypot the profit is 541.6 BTC, but 334.7 BTC (62%) went to the app owners and 126.4 BTC (23%) went to MoneyPot itself, leaving just 80.4 BTC (15%) for the investors. I'm not sure how that is worked out, but when investors are taking ~100% of the risk it doesn't seem fair that they get only 15% of the profit when the expected and actual profits are so close together. It's like the investors are paying an 85% commission on their profits.

To the extent that (a) you will not need your investment in the medium term, (b) trust that the owners of MP are not cheating the owners of the bankroll and (c) believe that MP will continue to have similar or greater betting volumes then you should keep your investment.

Do also need to (d) trust that there isn't some exploit allowing a third party to cheat.

What the actual f Dooglus?  Blatant Libel?

You know very well that we don't take that much commission and you are intentionally misleading our customers and directly hurting us on purpose (70 Bitcoin withdrawn immediately after your comment).  

We take 20% of the house edge (less than Dean's 25% of house edge and 25% profit, or Bit-Dice's 30% of house edge), give 50% of the house edge to app owners (because there are multiple sites that investors connect to), and investors are subject to 30% of the house edge.

Those are expected percentages though....your % and the app owners % are guaranteed, but not investors

Yeah my main concern also is the fact that the percentages for them are guaranteed unlike investors who risk their money while not getting any guaranteed return.

[superbit]

Why not guarantee the investors profit and make the app owners variable, more inventive to make apps that have a higher house edge or get more bets.

[RHavar]

Why not guarantee the investors profit and make the app owners variable, more inventive to make apps that have a higher house edge or get more bets.

It can be quite difficult to run a business when your income is so volatile, so the service that investors provide is they eat that variance in exchange for some of the expected value. It's pretty neat actually, as a site owner (but not of a MP app) I'd happily trade 50% of my EV for a steady income And presumedly investors are happy with it, by the fact they're still invested.

And if app owners don't mind some of that variance, they're always able to invest themselves.

[BillyBurns]

when it rains it pours /wrist



What just happened....

[RHavar]

What the actual f Dooglus?  Blatant Libel?

You know very well that we don't take that much commission and you are intentionally misleading our customers and directly hurting us on purpose (70 Bitcoin withdrawn immediately after your comment).

I should probably let Dooglus speak for himself, but you perhaps misread what he wrote. He didn't say that investors make 15% of the EV, he's saying they have made of the EV. I don't see any error or misguidance in his statements.

Perhaps a better response would've been "Hey, our investors made 50% of what they should've. Yours only 30%"  or something. ( I <3 twisting statistics)


But anyway, I think perhaps the bigger concern is most people don't really understand the difference between "Expected Value" and "Expected Bankroll Growth" and just assume that if they're +EV they should expect the bankroll to grow, but the reality is if the bankroll is over leveraged that's not the case.

I'm not sure when MoneyPot switched from the kelly system, but some time after it did I warned of the risks and provided a simulator that showed how investors should expect to lose money. That was posted on April 18, where I recorded the investor profit at 101 BTC, and it's currently 62 BTC and have had substantial dilution in the mean time.

As much as I love to say I was right, it could also be attributed to other factors. But it's probably worth entertaining the possibility that running a bankroll at -BRG is a horrible idea.



That said, I have no problems with letting people do what ever they want (we're all consenting adults) but I suspect if the wording was a bit more clear: "By investing here you get 30% of the EV, but should expect to lose money over the long term if whales play on the site" it might result in less investment. Or maybe not, maybe the investors like to also passively gamble.  

[AcoinL.L.C]

when it rains it pours /wrist

There is a whale on Bit-exo currently that is betting 5 BTC at a time based on crowd poll (hi / lo). He just rained quite a bit as well. Unfortunately variance isn't being to kind at the moment.

[fiscorcle]

What the actual f Dooglus?  Blatant Libel?

You know very well that we don't take that much commission and you are intentionally misleading our customers and directly hurting us on purpose (70 Bitcoin withdrawn immediately after your comment).

I should probably let Dooglus speak for himself, but you perhaps misread what he wrote. He didn't say that investors make 15% of the EV, he's saying they have made of the EV. I don't see any error or misguidance in his statements.

Perhaps a better response would've been "Hey, our investors made 50% of what they should've. Yours only 30%"  or something. ( I <3 twisting statistics)


But anyway, I think perhaps the bigger concern is most people don't really understand the difference between "Expected Value" and "Expected Bankroll Growth" and just assume that if they're +EV they should expect the bankroll to grow, but the reality is if the bankroll is over leveraged that's not the case.

I'm not sure when MoneyPot switched from the kelly system, but some time after it did I warned of the risks and provided a simulator that showed how investors should expect to lose money. That was posted on April 18, where I recorded the investor profit at 101 BTC, and it's currently 62 BTC and have had substantial dilution in the mean time.

As much as I love to say I was right, it could also be attributed to other factors. But it's probably worth entertaining the possibility that running a bankroll at -BRG is a horrible idea.



That said, I have no problems with letting people do what ever they want (we're all consenting adults) but I suspect if the wording was a bit more clear: "By investing here you get 30% of the EV, but should expect to lose money over the long term if whales play on the site" it might result in less investment. Or maybe not, maybe the investors like to also passively gamble. 

I did read what he wrote.  He also knows exactly how it would sound.

He was purposely trying to make it seem like it's worse off than it actually is.  He is an expert about equity and yet he is basing it off of results.

Dooglus isn't stupid.  He knows what he was doing.

I mean it's not as though MP has had a great couple of months...everyone should just chill out and play

[Dogedigital]

For those wondering what happened to the profit, user 'AllOrBroke' won over 70 Bitcoin today.

All betting took place at Bit-Exo.com and the vast majority of this user's bets were 5 Bitcoin wagers decided by votes (ie: bitcoingg hi or lo?, bitcoingg: hi, allorbroke bets 5 Bitcoin > 50.4999 High).

Other bets were placed by a Bot that tallied user votes and bet on his behalf.  Client seed was never changed throughout the session.

We are currently investigating further into the matter.

[jpcfan]

AOB is coolest cat iv met in awhile



congrats AOB

[pablotextoris]

For those wondering what happened to the profit, user 'AllOrBroke' won over 70 Bitcoin today.

All betting took place at Bit-Exo.com and the vast majority of this user's bets were 5 Bitcoin wagers decided by votes (ie: bitcoingg hi or lo?, bitcoingg: hi, allorbroke bets 5 Bitcoin > 50.4999 High).

Other bets were placed by a Bot that tallied user votes and bet on his behalf.  Client seed was never changed throughout the session.

We are currently investigating further into the matter.

Vast of the bets wich were done without a bot were also being decided by specific users on demand.
Later bets done via bot were purely depending on user votes as well.
Just to confirm the bot itself was provided and run by the site owners not by AllOrBroke himself.

[J_ROC]

As well the bot only collects votes from users and presents a choice for him to follow, his bet is still done manually(bot doesn't place any bets). https://www.moneypot.com/users/allorbrokebot 

[3x1t]

For those wondering what happened to the profit, user 'AllOrBroke' won over 70 Bitcoin today.

All betting took place at Bit-Exo.com and the vast majority of this user's bets were 5 Bitcoin wagers decided by votes (ie: bitcoingg hi or lo?, bitcoingg: hi, allorbroke bets 5 Bitcoin > 50.4999 High).

Other bets were placed by a Bot that tallied user votes and bet on his behalf.  Client seed was never changed throughout the session.

We are currently investigating further into the matter.

Confirmed. I was watching all of his bets in second session where he made majority of his profits.
There have been a few bets sometimes that he decided himself but I believe if u sum his and userdecided ones up, it might even show his own bets in negative profits.

I remember when he lost 10 in a row a 2.3 btc = 23 btc within 1 minute or something.

Anyways gl investigating, was prolly never more easy than in this case.

[B_UN1T]

For those wondering what happened to the profit, user 'AllOrBroke' won over 70 Bitcoin today.

All betting took place at Bit-Exo.com and the vast majority of this user's bets were 5 Bitcoin wagers decided by votes (ie: bitcoingg hi or lo?, bitcoingg: hi, allorbroke bets 5 Bitcoin > 50.4999 High).

Other bets were placed by a Bot that tallied user votes and bet on his behalf.  Client seed was never changed throughout the session.

We are currently investigating further into the matter.

Ok as i told AoB he will get my full support for this season and here it is.
I was watching this guy live he was up 100 btc already a week ago but lost nearly all on the end (+14)
I first thought it was a inside job, a few from mp knows me and if it comes to big wins like this i always look closer. Remember the Notardy story!

But for this win, i will give my full support it was legit!

Before i start i must say this guy was the first lvl 10 user on exo and J had creat this own hi/lo bot for him.
He can request the bot and the community say hi or lo (screens will come later from a other user)
I would say 20% from the bets come from the hi/lo bot.
But the bot was broken on the start so he start to pick user (me incl.) and ask hi or lo
After the user say hi or lo he bet 5btc on what the user sayed. I pick hi BAM 5btc won.

This guy also rained more than 3btc during the season. THX to Aob for this again.
But this will not tell i get pay for my post!

Congrats to AoB for this more than nice win!

Investors will cry now Second time i saw Investors profit red in 1 year. The last time it was after the big plinko classic hit


Edit.
Of course i can understand MP for the investigation. Every win over 20 would get this from me to!