🌟🎲🌟 MoneyPot.com

[cudjex]

There is "unspecified-error", what is the reason?

Make sure to log out of the app you were using, in that screenshot you just leaked your access token which someone else will be able to use (I believe)

I tried that way but still gives error. However in localhost this is working perfectly.

[Helix61be]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

You can't predict it, 1 month you make good profit, the Next month you make a loss. Just try it if you wanna do it

[BBHex]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

[J_ROC]

There is "unspecified-error", what is the reason?

Make sure to log out of the app you were using, in that screenshot you just leaked your access token which someone else will be able to use (I believe)

I tried that way but still gives error. However in localhost this is working perfectly.

did you get a new key pair from google for the correct url?

[DebitMe]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

[Quickseller]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

In order to figure out roughly how well your investment should perform over a year, take the average daily amount that is gambled at MP, multiply this by 1.825, this is the amount of returns the bankroll should earn over a year with a 0.5% house edge. You can then divide this amount by the current bankroll amount to get an estimate as to how much you are expected to earn on your bankroll investment on an annual percentage basis.

The above assumes no betting growth and no bankroll growth with is unusual for a new site like MP.

The above assumes that bankroll earnings will be withdrawn as they are earned (unlikely), assumes no betting growth (unlikely) and no bankroll growth (also unlikely), however it should give you a rough estimate as to what you could earn. There will also be variance which means that earnings will not be steady. 

[Helix61be]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

[DebitMe]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

[Helix61be]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

[DebitMe]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

[JackpotRacer]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

well said and I would like to point to a very nice read  "the Law of large numbers"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[Helix61be]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

[DebitMe]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

If you can't use the exact method to determine what your expected profit will be...what can you use?

[Helix61be]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

If you can't use the exact method to determine what your expected profit will be...what can you use?

Nothing if you don't want a calculation that needs years upon years and even with that time you still got all the variables

For anyone that want to know 1 month it turned 16,7% 2nd month it was 10,5%, 3rd month it was maybe 0-2%

[dooglus]

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

No, it's just wrong. He's saying you can divide the returns the bankroll should earn over a year by the bankroll amount to get an estimate of your expected earnings on an annual percentage basis.

Suppose the bankroll is 2000 BTC and the expected earnings are 1000 BTC per year. Using QS's formula that gives 1000/2000 = 0.5 as his annual percentage expected earnings whereas in reality earning 1000 from 2000 is more like 50%. I think he forgot a factor of 100 somewhere.

[dooglus]

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.

That's a common fallacy. Whether every player keeps playing until they bust, or stops as soon as they are ahead, the law of large numbers still applies, and the house profit still tends towards the expected house profit in the long run.

[Helix61be]

And then the bankroll More then doubles in a few months and the ammount waggered goes down.
I get the preddiction but i think it's just An average that's all

[Quickseller]

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

No, it's just wrong. He's saying you can divide the returns the bankroll should earn over a year by the bankroll amount to get an estimate of your expected earnings on an annual percentage basis.

Suppose the bankroll is 2000 BTC and the expected earnings are 1000 BTC per year. Using QS's formula that gives 1000/2000 = 0.5 as his annual percentage expected earnings whereas in reality earning 1000 from 2000 is more like 50%. I think he forgot a factor of 100 somewhere.

Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.

100 * 1.825 is 182.5. 182.5 divided by the 100 bankroll is 1.825 which expressed as a percentage is 182.5%.

All of the above assumes 100% "luck", no variance, and earnings being immidiatly withdrawn.

My statement might have been poorly worded.

[Quickseller]

Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.

Isn't this still off by 3.33x?

36500 bitcoin gets wagered @ 0.5% HE, then investors have to pay the app a fixed 91.25 BTC, and a have to pay a fixed 36.5 BTC to MP itself. So that leaves investors with 54.75 BTC in EV but all the variance of fielding the bets.

I was assuming that the HE was 0.5% after all the commissions are paid for.

My understanding is (this may be incorrect), that MP will take 1/2 of the HE between their own commission and the app owner commission, and 1% HE seems to be pretty standard to me.

On top of variance, there's also some other conflating factors: both other investors (you should probably expect to get diluted over time, unless something goes really wrong), and players (not every EV is created equal. How someone bet *does* impact your expected final bankroll).

There is also the possibility that the owner of the casino is able to get betting volume growth to be greater then bankroll volume to be greater then bankroll growth, which would have the opposite effect as the above. IDK if there are any reliable stats/theories regarding what to expect over the long run about bankroll growth verses betting growth.
 

tldr;  Don't try to predict how much you'll make 

I would disagree with this. A bankroll investor will need to risk the possibility that a casino operator will run away will the coins in the bankroll, that the seeds will somehow leak, allowing someone to cheat, and drain ~the entire bankroll, that the coins are otherwise stolen from the casino and the operator cannot afford to cover the cost of the theft, among other possible risks. In order to measure how appropriate it is to take these risks, a potential bankroll investor will need to know how much they should expect to earn by taking these risks.

There are other investments that a potential bankroll investor can make (eg investing in a company, lending for margin loans on an exchange, investing in the stock market), and an investor should invest his money in what he believes have the best risk/reward proposition.

[ranlo]

My understanding is (this may be incorrect), that MP will take 1/2 of the HE between their own commission and the app owner commission, and 1% HE seems to be pretty standard to me.

It used to be, but it's now 70% (50% for app, 20% for MP)

I would disagree with this. A bankroll investor will need to risk the possibility that a casino operator will run away will the coins in the bankroll, that the seeds will somehow leak, allowing someone to cheat, and drain ~the entire bankroll, that the coins are otherwise stolen from the casino and the operator cannot afford to cover the cost of the theft, among other possible risks. In order to measure how appropriate it is to take these risks, a potential bankroll investor will need to know how much they should expect to earn by taking these risks.

There are other investments that a potential bankroll investor can make (eg investing in a company, lending for margin loans on an exchange, investing in the stock market), and an investor should invest his money in what he believes have the best risk/reward proposition.

Fair enough. What I would do is to try estimate the EV of the investment as a whole (which is a total crap shoot that involves pulling numbers from your ass for things like counter-party risk) and then use that to determine how much I should risk in the investment itself (which itself uses the kelly <3). But lets say I guestimated the total EV of investing in MP at 1 BTC for the year, I would never actually personally "expect" to make that because there's so many variables (I could easily lose the entire investment, or make double it)

People also need to take into consideration divestment/investment betting as well. There are so many variables. One thing I was planning to do was run a weekly analysis on return, but decided it may not have much use since the past is no determinant of the future so the data, while it's good for the existing period, has no real value going forward. That said, if people do feel it would have value, I can definitely do that moving forward and report weekly or monthly or whatever.