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Author Topic: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th]  (Read 455261 times)
joris
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May 24, 2013, 01:45:22 PM
 #241

Founders have shares and are free market participants. So they are allowed to sell their shares at any time en it is up to the other market participants to distill information out of these sales.

Luckily these markets in the bitcoin economy are not regulated by some dictating government by its collective stupidity. If one gets screwed, one trusted the wrong (pseudonymous) persons to earn money for himself. Overprotection screws people and economies up in the long run.

Tytus, really like your USD/Ghash comparison with BFL. Says something about aiming for transparency, which is not in your short-term interest with the rising share prices of 100th.

;-)
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furuknap
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May 24, 2013, 01:47:26 PM
 #242

@tytus: I appreciate your transparency, but:

1) You are comparing your GH/s cost with the only company that is cheaper and by the way doesn't deliver. Not even the Jalapenos, much less the higher end machines.

Might I remind everyone that 100th also does not deliver at this point. Reaching milestones is good, but it's not delivery or revenue.

2) My point on the price is that if you compare 100TH with other similar security options in Bitfunder, you are still cheap. The cheapest you can get in Bitfunder is about 200MH/BTC and here one can get 1GH/BTC.

About the cheapness, this greatly depends on a number of factors and comparing it to other options may not make much sense because if 100th does not earn a sufficient profit at this level, it only means the others are less profitable. 100th must be profitable on its own merit, not compared to other companies.

Still, though, this is a decision for investors, not for 100th.

.b

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May 24, 2013, 01:48:08 PM
 #243

I think I understand tytus position here. He wants to sell stocks but he feels liquidity is low, this is why he would like to see the price go down a bit, so that more people would buy.

My 2c: If liquidity is low is probably because:

a) picostocks sucks in terms of trying to pass a sense of credibility and professionalism (compare it to bitfunder or havelockinvestments)
b) You should advertise more, you have one of the best GH/s prices, there are lots of people buyng GH/s for more in the aforementioned sites.

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May 24, 2013, 03:18:44 PM
 #244

If we start before 5 months we will easily return in 3-4 months @ 0,20. I think is still a reasonable price.
We just need to wait and hope tytus is working hard for us  Smiley

BTW I prefer if he doesn't advertise 100th, I will be able to buy more shares at lower price, so who cares. If we have less people speculating on the price I think it will be better in the long term, so I hope all stay quietly just like now.

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May 24, 2013, 05:59:33 PM
 #245

In terms of advertising, it is a tricky scenario.

First, Tytus is fully aware that the chips have not been tested yet and could fail. If this happens, he will have to deal with a shitstorm. Better to wait until chips have been verified before advertising.


Second, if chips do work, then he can either hold on to the shares and earn direct revenue from mining or....if the share price exceeds his projected earning potential then he can sell some shares. However, that could be interpreted as doing a disservice to the buyer if he is selling shares @ a price higher than he thinks he will earn.

If he is selling shares below his projected earnings estimates it is out of his own goodwill or as an effort to promote trading on picostocks (EDIT. or increasing his own liquidity in BTC). Obviously, everyone has their own way of predicting what the realistic long term ROI will be, so what is considered a fair price can vary widely.
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May 24, 2013, 06:28:56 PM
 #246

Oops, I missed the discussion on the thread ...

We are getting requests asking why we are "dumping" prices by offering shares from "73i6" (1AQxJQZtTNzUhviMjB8jqxxqL3Kbnm73i6 / Pico).
The main reason is that we want to increase liquidity because at low liquidity the price is too volatile. We can of course offer shares at higher prices but there must be a rational explanation of the valuation.
I believe the mine will be very successful in the first months but after that the revenues will drop (very) rapidly. The same will happen to the stock valuation. So this investment is quite tricky. To estimate the market cap of the 100th mine we have to predict how many BTC will be mined. 100k BTC are mined per month in total. I doubt the mine will make 100 BTC in the first two months. Other competitors will also fight for the mining revenues (BFL, maybe 28nm chip from helveticoin, and new batches of our chips). Also the chips have not been tested yet, so the investment is still very speculative.
We will update our projections in 3-4 weeks when we (hopefully) have functional boards.


I just don't understand why you need to enforce a certain price/liquidity/volatility. Stock was trading at nearly 0.4, until you put 1000 shares wall at nearly half that price TWICE.

You've completed your IPO and collected funds for the development. Leave the rest to free market. It sure doesn't paint a pretty picture about your commitment or confidence if you make your exit before you've even received chips.

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tytus
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May 24, 2013, 06:39:42 PM
 #247

Ok, I will not place any more sell orders before the mining starts but please don't let the price go up to some insane level. Of course there are always people who can not do the math and forget that the price has to go down to (close to) 0 at some time [this is different than in case of other (regular) stocks], but why batten on them.

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furuknap
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May 24, 2013, 06:46:15 PM
 #248

Ok, I will not place any more sell orders before the mining starts but please don't let the price go up to some insane level. Of course there are always people who can not do the math and forget that the price has to go down to (close to) 0 at some time [this is different than in case of other (regular) stocks], but why batten on them.

It is not those who _have_ bought who decide what the next buyres will pay. If you run the mine with equal information to the market then really, you'll find there are bubbles (OMG it's at $266, BUY BUY BUY!) and there are crashes (OMG it's at $50 SELL SELL SELL!). You can't blame Satoshi for that, nor will anyone blame you for what other people choose to do.

I fully understand your position and desire to protect investors, perhaps especially those that are inexperienced and don't do their research. Your best option is to provide information to the market, like you are doing already, about the operation, your projections, any issues, and so on. Based on that, people will pay ฿0.4, ฿40, og ฿0.00004 for shares of that.

BTW, there's no issue with you selling shares. Announce it a few days in advance, state some reasonable and relative price (ie halfway between a weighted average of bids and asks, or 10% above previous 7 day average sale price, or anything), and let the market react however it pleases.

.b

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May 24, 2013, 06:52:14 PM
 #249

This is a good idea. I will report the desire to sell shares at some price 48h before I place the order.

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May 24, 2013, 07:47:36 PM
 #250

tytus, no prior history? You lived under a rock since the early days of Bitcoin mining?

Those "early days of Bitcoin mining" wouldn't be April 19, 2012, I hope.

Let me tell you some names from the "early days of bitcoin mining". Hashking. Amazingrando. Gigavps. Inaba. Tom van Ryp them. Buzzdave. Meni Rosenfeld. Diablo-D3. I could go on. And on. And on.

It failed, it wasn't a scam. I can attest to it personally: I was a bASIC customer and was refunded to the last cent.

Not much to go by. I recall the threads back in the day, the economics of why exactly "refunds to the last cent" weren't possible are quite plain, such claims as yours are pretty much worthless. Please document the "hundreds" etc you speak of.

Yeah like Bitfury would let someone build a scammer company on his own reputation without reacting in any way. Makes sense

Please review the history of the "early days". Preferably going back before April 2012, but even lately: MtGox and Coinlab, for instance. Also please review some very basic, beginner logic, because whatever you've got going isn't working worth squat.

MPOE-PR: stop being envious of other people actually building something and go back on your exchange nobody wants to use anymore. Attacking stocks that didn't select your exchange with so pathetic FUD only damages your own reputation (assuming it's still somehow recoverable).

Retard, review the history of "the early days of Bitcoin whatever". Specifically the parts which show what happens to people who try and claim I spread FUD.

I doubt Bitfury would post lengthy descriptions of his progress in the 100TH threads if he had no connections with them.

Gigavps made clear personal commitments which he then replaced, in clear violation of his own written word, with some llc. Patrick Harnett made clear statements of personal responsibility which he then igonred.

Friedcat studiously avoids making any sort of contract, and this should be somehow interpreted as better than a contract. Bitfury makes "updates" in this forum, and this you take as what exactly? In the event this is exposed as a scam your recourse will be what, ask for Bitfury to get a scammer tag for "obviously" making posts in a scam thread and then accuse Theymos & the forum & the moderators & the world of being at fault for your own broken thought process?

This ain't how it goes. Absent an actually signed declaration from Bitfury at a very minimum there's absolutely nothing here. Nothing other than, of course, the usual pump and dump scamfest that the outer ring of Bitcoin Hell is so properly famous for.

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May 24, 2013, 07:58:24 PM
 #251

I doubt Bitfury would post lengthy descriptions of his progress in the 100TH threads if he had no connections with them.

Gigavps made clear personal commitments which he then replaced, in clear violation of his own written word, with some llc. Patrick Harnett made clear statements of personal responsibility which he then igonred.

Friedcat studiously avoids making any sort of contract, and this should be somehow interpreted as better than a contract. Bitfury makes "updates" in this forum, and this you take as what exactly?

I take it as one factor in my research, nothing more, just like I take your advice and comments as one factor in my research, nothing more. I take these factors and assign to them values and probabilities and come up with a risk that I either assume or reject.

In the event this is exposed as a scam your recourse will be what, ask for Bitfury to get a scammer tag for "obviously" making posts in a scam thread and then accuse Theymos & the forum & the moderators & the world of being at fault for your own broken thought process?

These are the risks I'm talking about evaluating. I'm perfectly comfortable with the risk I'm assuming, not even considering wasting time trying to get back at someone or my money back. I wouldn't need a path of recourse because if this is a scam, I consider my money lost and that is part of the calculations I do.

.b

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May 24, 2013, 08:34:41 PM
 #252

Ok, I will not place any more sell orders before the mining starts but please don't let the price go up to some insane level. Of course there are always people who can not do the math and forget that the price has to go down to (close to) 0 at some time [this is different than in case of other (regular) stocks], but why batten on them.

It is not those who _have_ bought who decide what the next buyres will pay. If you run the mine with equal information to the market then really, you'll find there are bubbles (OMG it's at $266, BUY BUY BUY!) and there are crashes (OMG it's at $50 SELL SELL SELL!). You can't blame Satoshi for that, nor will anyone blame you for what other people choose to do.

I fully understand your position and desire to protect investors, perhaps especially those that are inexperienced and don't do their research. Your best option is to provide information to the market, like you are doing already, about the operation, your projections, any issues, and so on. Based on that, people will pay ฿0.4, ฿40, og ฿0.00004 for shares of that.

BTW, there's no issue with you selling shares. Announce it a few days in advance, state some reasonable and relative price (ie halfway between a weighted average of bids and asks, or 10% above previous 7 day average sale price, or anything), and let the market react however it pleases.

.b

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May 24, 2013, 09:16:59 PM
 #253

long run potential and *value* of shares is subject to re-investment. it would be much better if they set a reinvestment rate but perhaps they don't want to bother OR they will just use the proceeds to build more for themselves without sharing with public

ok
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May 24, 2013, 10:28:25 PM
 #254

ROFL @ MPOE-PR, like always. Mad again because someone didn't choose your exchange? I am in no way saying you are wrong or right about this company, but everything you type seems to be FUD against competition that doesn't use your exchange, followed by ad hominem attacks when people disagree. (You really call people retards quite often.) And you REALLY like to talk shit and pick on the people who don't seem to know much, while ignoring the educated or semi-educated replies you get. All while your baby Satoshi Dice continues to tank. I haven't gotten SHIT for dividends from my SDice shares compared to other investments I have, nearly all of which you have trashed. You are worse at actual PR than Inaba, and only newbies listen to your FUD until they realize that is all you have to offer. At least from what I have seen. I haven't exactly gone back an read all of your posts, but the ones I do read make me laugh. One compliment though, you are a FUD master, even if you are terrible at PR.
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May 24, 2013, 11:17:04 PM
 #255

100th mine:
shares   518271
price per share BTC   0.2
market cap BTC   103654.2
hashrate [GH/s]   100000

I believe you simplified the hashrate number too much.
After the IPO you declared "This means that the mine will have a hashing power of > 103TH/s. We will equip the mine with enough boards to provide this power."

Tell us, there is still 200 MH/s per share or not?

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May 25, 2013, 12:09:04 AM
 #256

It seems to me that if the purchased hash rate is 200Mh per share, then the only metric that really matters is the network difficulty at the time the equipment actually starts hashing.  We can't possibly know what the network difficulty will be, but we do know that companies consistently fail to hash on time.  Purchasing this stock is just placing a bet that this company will succeed in delivering while others will not. 

If correct, and companies like BFL do not ship en masse (what in their past would make you think they would).  And bulk purchasers of Avalon chips realize that it isn't that easy to take an open source design and create your own boards.  Then these shares really could end up hashing .5 - .7 BTC over the course of the first year.

I'm of the opinion that these shares are a steal at .28 (current ask) and will be buying more until around .35 - .4

Just my 2c
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May 25, 2013, 01:07:04 AM
 #257

It seems to me that if the purchased hash rate is 200Mh per share, then the only metric that really matters is the network difficulty at the time the equipment actually starts hashing.  We can't possibly know what the network difficulty will be, but we do know that companies consistently fail to hash on time.  Purchasing this stock is just placing a bet that this company will succeed in delivering while others will not. 

If correct, and companies like BFL do not ship en masse (what in their past would make you think they would).  And bulk purchasers of Avalon chips realize that it isn't that easy to take an open source design and create your own boards.  Then these shares really could end up hashing .5 - .7 BTC over the course of the first year.

I'm of the opinion that these shares are a steal at .28 (current ask) and will be buying more until around .35 - .4

Just my 2c

your assumption is that there will be no DELAYS. you seem very confident.

ok
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May 25, 2013, 01:51:42 AM
 #258

your assumption is that there will be no DELAYS. you seem very confident.

Not confident, I clearly stated that it was a gamble.  Though I do admit that I have more confidence in 100TH than I do in BFL actually delivering a significant number of units any time soon.

Purchasing this stock is just placing a bet that this company will succeed in delivering while others will not. 

If correct, and companies like BFL do not ship en masse (what in their past would make you think they would).  And bulk purchasers of Avalon chips realize that it isn't that easy to take an open source design and create your own boards.  Then these shares really could end up hashing .5 - .7 BTC over the course of the first year.
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May 25, 2013, 08:29:27 AM
 #259

100th mine:
shares   518271
price per share BTC   0.2
market cap BTC   103654.2
hashrate [GH/s]   100000

I believe you simplified the hashrate number too much.
After the IPO you declared "This means that the mine will have a hashing power of > 103TH/s. We will equip the mine with enough boards to provide this power."

Tell us, there is still 200 MH/s per share or not?



Sure. The mine will have > 103TH/s . It does not change the calculation much.

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May 25, 2013, 11:32:06 AM
 #260

Sure. The mine will have > 103TH/s . It does not change the calculation much.

Hey gals and guys, I just figured something out. STOP BUYING EXXON SHARES! Do you realize how cheap a showel, a pickaxe, and a few empty barrels are? You could easily pick that up for $100.

Exxon produces almost 4bn barrels of oil every day. There are 4.4 billion shares outstanding, and they're paying $0.63 per share in dividends per quarter, or roughly $0.007 per day.

To make it easy, let's say they produce as many barrels of oil as there are shares outstanding. That means that for each barrel produced, you get $0.007 (not even a cent).

Sure. The operation will have >1 share/barrel. It does not change the calculation much.

With a selling price for oil at rougly $93, you need just north of one single barrel to get your money back, compared to 13'112.85 barrels if you buy Exxon shares.

At this rate, it will take just over 36 years to get your money back! Who knows whether there will even be oil in 36 years. This is a scam!

Exxon should immediately issue 40bn more shares at roughly $0.01 each because that is a comparable price to just digging oil yourself.

.b

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