[PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th]

[Dexter770221]

Another 10TH drop in hashrate. Looks like deploying big farm is a big chalenge. AM also have problems to sustain stable hashrate.

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[joris]

Hard to scale a mining operation is good for decentralization of mining!

Maybe fixed rate mines like 100th are actually quite good for the distributed network.

[mrb]

100 times difficulty ~ 100,000,000 GH/s ~ 1,000,000,000 USD investments in mining gear

Who's gonna pay that?

You assumed prices of $10 per Ghash/s. It is well-known current ASIC vendors have insane margins on the raw silicon. As a matter of fact, Cointerra is already selling pre-orders $3 per Ghash/s. Watch the price drop to $1 or less per Ghash/s over the next 12 months. Therefore a $100 million investment in mining hardware is all you need for the network to grow to 100 Phash/s. This will happen by September 2014. Watch.

Well, imho, all vaporware of new companies could be getting very slowly to the market. Every new company with a new ASIC will get setbacks to mass produce fully functional hardware. Technical and organisational.

Even the succes stories ain't spotless: ASICminer doesn't show their projected 200 TH which, iirc, they would have deployed at the start of last summer. Bitfury ASIC retail miners had to rerun parts of their production. 100th mine has been several months delayed and then you also have the usual suspects BFL and Avalon. Completely normal in every starting business and to be expected also of all other newcoming companies, and BFL again for sure, claiming to not need a prototype for their 28nm, since their models are now superior.

The incentive to invest in and to distribute retail products is also dwindling, since one has to compete with mines like Ghash.io, which runs the most efficient chips atm against manufacturers cost, which could be under $1 per Ghash/s according to your assumption. But they probably won't compete with themselves, just building and maintaining their share of the network. So they will follow retail and competitors, not lead them, but they are king for now.

Retail will slow down its pace first (happening right now), due to inherent high cost structure and lower than expected returns of their capital already fixed in miners and preorders. Generated income will probably hardly be reinvested after being scared in these first ASIC production rounds and by current jumps in difficulty. And daily amounts per individual miner are relatively small and they have to save many days to buy a (then hopefully cheaper) miner. Slowing the growth pace more and more, since they earn less and less and are mostly still in the red for their earlier investments.

Public companies like ASICminer come next, due to 'dividend losses' and losing the energy race accelerated by a shrinking share of the pie. Unless they (have) invest(ed) sanely (when they ruled the network) and some monkey comes out of their sleeve on one of these days. AM still makes a lot of investment capital every day, but hardware production and growth of mining capacity is slow compared to demand up till now.

Large private mines will rule anyway and the forementioned Ghash.io is the only serious one right now and they soak up around 20% of the daily production out of the market which is hardly needed for their expansion (they mine per day a private gross investment capital to add ~100 TH mining capacity) and which is not available for other parties to reinvest.

Even if the cash to invest is available (current pre-orders don't run as fast anymore it seems, look for example at HashFast 1st batch Babyjets), the production capacity could very well being the factor restricting a continued high growth pace.

I can't predict the future however and only expect a bumpy road to this hundredfold. Price drops can slow down growth also significantly and the other way around. But I do hope for a 100 Phash/s network rather sooner than later, since it is a positive sign for bitcoin. But not so much for this mine.

I agree with your general sentiment. There will be bumps on the road. Companies will run behind schedule. Etc.

But you really need to look at hard numbers. 100 petahash/s is merely 9300 wafers of Bitfury's 55nm chip, or 2300 wafers at 28nm. This is nothing! Looking at the order of magnitude, this is 0.01% of the semiconductor industry's yearly capacity! It is so obvious that this is within Bitcoin ASIC vendors's capability to produce and deploy this few wafers of chips by September 2014.

[joris]

Thank you for providing more fundamental figures, so the ASIC chips themselves ain't the problem (don't know queues and production timelines at the foundries to get these small projects done), but getting them deployed to hashing in fully functional data centres will be.

100th bumped into some technical limitations at the pool side as described by Dave. If you run your own bitcoind at the mining facility, this probably won't be an issue.

Is there any problem to be expected in distributing the work to be done at really high hashing speeds. I mean, every calculation to find a hash should be an unique combination within the same mining pool (noob assumption). At which hashing speed of a mine will internal distribution of the work to be done become a problem? Or do we talk infinity then...

[Dexter770221]

Looks like some issues are resolved. Hashrate is greater than 50TH. I'm curious for how long ;-)

[kano]

From GPU to ASIC mining miners have always avoided hardware with more than 3-6 months of 100% ROI.

How could ASICMINER sell their first blades?
Why are people buying dozens and dozens of USB-Miners, which will never ROI according to current parameters?

Because
- People want to mine and don't care about ROI. Remember, people are doing Folding@Home and other "zero-ROI" stuff.
- They use linear difficulty extrapolation at best

Difficulty will be >100x what it is today in less than a year. (No, I'm not taking bets. That's my personal opinion. Share it or don't.)

The biggest issue with these 'uninformed' people mining with AMUs is that they are so unlikely to ever find a block that they are in fact NOT supporting the bitcoin network in any way that matters.
At the moment the expected average time to find a block for a 335MH/s AMU is ... ~45.75years ... which of course only keeps getting longer each diff change
Make a BTC loss (ripped off) buying 100 of them and you are still only expected to find a block on average once every 167 days ... at the current diff
So yeah maybe if you have 100 of them you might be helping ... but that leaves 2 options:
1) Waste a sizeable amount of BTC on them that you won't get it all back
2) Only buy a few (using the don't care argument) and indeed you really aren't helping the network in any way that matters ...

I'd guess most people in class 2) are the 'OMG free money' people who are actually losing money

[kaerf]

Looks like some issues are resolved. Hashrate is greater than 50TH. I'm curious for how long ;-)

Don't know if my calculations are off or what, but I believe dividends have been declining the last couple of days. New snag?

[JaredR26]

Hi guys,

Just want to give you an update from the floor.

1. We have a lot of hashpower deployed now- should keep us above 50TH.  More M-boards arrived, which should enable us to ship out the remainder of August customer orders.
2. A lot of the issues we are encountering now are software based- my domain.  I've ramped up to full time starting Monday of this week, so this should start getting better fast.
3. The bitfury devices are very finicky.  We can lose over 10TH without any devices going offline.  Rest assured that we aren't removing hardware and getting this smoothed over is our absolute highest priority.
4. Per 3, there is a huge amount of room for us to gain in performance without even adding hardware now.  I can't say how fast it will happen because software bugs & issues can be completely random on the resolution time, but it will come with fits and starts.

Thanks,
Jared

[Faraday]

The biggest issue with these 'uninformed' people mining with AMUs is that they are so unlikely to ever find a block that they are in fact NOT supporting the bitcoin network in any way that matters.
At the moment the expected average time to find a block for a 335MH/s AMU is ... ~45.75years ... which of course only keeps getting longer each diff change
Make a BTC loss (ripped off) buying 100 of them and you are still only expected to find a block on average once every 167 days ... at the current diff
So yeah maybe if you have 100 of them you might be helping ... but that leaves 2 options:
1) Waste a sizeable amount of BTC on them that you won't get it all back
2) Only buy a few (using the don't care argument) and indeed you really aren't helping the network in any way that matters ...

I'd guess most people in class 2) are the 'OMG free money' people who are actually losing money

But if you combine all the people mining with AMUs, doesn't that support the bitcoin network? Maybe they will take 45 years to find a block mining solo, but if there are 20,000 of them in total then combined they mine over 1 block per day.

[Transisto]

Hi guys,

Just want to give you an update from the floor.

1. We have a lot of hashpower deployed now- should keep us above 50TH.  More M-boards arrived, which should enable us to ship out the remainder of August customer orders.
2. A lot of the issues we are encountering now are software based- my domain.  I've ramped up to full time starting Monday of this week, so this should start getting better fast.
3. The bitfury devices are very finicky.  We can lose over 10TH without any devices going offline.  Rest assured that we aren't removing hardware and getting this smoothed over is our absolute highest priority.
4. Per 3, there is a huge amount of room for us to gain in performance without even adding hardware now.  I can't say how fast it will happen because software bugs & issues can be completely random on the resolution time, but it will come with fits and starts.

Thanks,
Jared

Not sure what customers orders we should care about.

What about a plan that goes to 200th??

[gebir]

We want to run every rig at 400G, which would give us 65TH even now.  More hardware deploys next week - I expect we'll surpass the original 100TH goal.

We have received more hardware today that will allow us build another 20 - 25TH.  We continue to work towards optimizing the rigs and getting everything run at top speed...

There is hardware for 85-90TH / s but online is only ~ 40-50TH / s
WTF ?

[Dexter770221]

This:

2. A lot of the issues we are encountering now are software based- my domain.  I've ramped up to full time starting Monday of this week, so this should start getting better fast.

And I can imagine that upgrading software in 100+ rPi's have to take some time

[canth]

This:

2. A lot of the issues we are encountering now are software based- my domain.  I've ramped up to full time starting Monday of this week, so this should start getting better fast.

And I can imagine that upgrading software in 100+ rPi's have to take some time

Well, no - not if it's done via script or clustershell. It's just a matter of testing and execution then.

[Kushedout]

Hi guys,

Just want to give you an update from the floor.

1. We have a lot of hashpower deployed now- should keep us above 50TH.  More M-boards arrived, which should enable us to ship out the remainder of August customer orders.
2. A lot of the issues we are encountering now are software based- my domain.  I've ramped up to full time starting Monday of this week, so this should start getting better fast.
3. The bitfury devices are very finicky.  We can lose over 10TH without any devices going offline.  Rest assured that we aren't removing hardware and getting this smoothed over is our absolute highest priority.
4. Per 3, there is a huge amount of room for us to gain in performance without even adding hardware now.  I can't say how fast it will happen because software bugs & issues can be completely random on the resolution time, but it will come with fits and starts.

Thanks,
Jared

Not to be rude, but as 100th investor, I can care less about the August costumers, matter of fact, that's almost like slap in a face.  This is how I read your post.

"Good news, August costumers (whoever they are) will make ROI.
Bad News, 100TH investors loose another 10TH. But instead of deploying new hardware and optimizing later, we will optimize what we got at a risk of more downtime."

[hekiman]

Friend of mine, WMP, has created a perl script, to count total and daily dividends of each account.

Link: http://wklej.org/id/1128634/txt/

To use it, you need to install:

Code:

WWW::Mechanize HTML::TreeBuilder

Under Linux, you can use this command:

Code:

sudo cpan WWW::Mechanize HTML::TreeBuilder

Edit script and type your account number in line 8:

Code:

my $userid = ""; #User ID

Enjoy.

run this script, it  shows the error:

Code:

Error GETing https://picostocks.com/users/incomes/x/page:1: Protocol scheme 'https' is not supported (LWP::Protocol::https not installed)

But I already install this modue by running:

Code:

sudo cpan LWP::Protocol::https

Thanks!

before starting the script:

Code:

export PERL_LWP_SSL_VERIFY_HOSTNAMES=0

[goxed]

Hi guys,

Just want to give you an update from the floor.


3. The bitfury devices are very finicky.  We can lose over 10TH without any devices going offline.  Rest assured that we aren't removing hardware and getting this smoothed over is our absolute highest priority.

Thanks,
Jared

I am sure you guys are the experts, but there are some good tips in this thread in case you might have missed out on some. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=287590.0

[buzzdave]

Hi guys,

Just want to give you an update from the floor.

1. We have a lot of hashpower deployed now- should keep us above 50TH.  More M-boards arrived, which should enable us to ship out the remainder of August customer orders.
2. A lot of the issues we are encountering now are software based- my domain.  I've ramped up to full time starting Monday of this week, so this should start getting better fast.
3. The bitfury devices are very finicky.  We can lose over 10TH without any devices going offline.  Rest assured that we aren't removing hardware and getting this smoothed over is our absolute highest priority.
4. Per 3, there is a huge amount of room for us to gain in performance without even adding hardware now.  I can't say how fast it will happen because software bugs & issues can be completely random on the resolution time, but it will come with fits and starts.

Thanks,
Jared

Not to be rude, but as 100th investor, I can care less about the August costumers, matter of fact, that's almost like slap in a face.  This is how I read your post.

"Good news, August costumers (whoever they are) will make ROI.
Bad News, 100TH investors loose another 10TH. But instead of deploying new hardware and optimizing later, we will optimize what we got at a risk of more downtime."

Jared refers to the remainder of August starter kits that needed to ship out.  It amounts to less than 1TH.  Some 100TH investors are also owners, so its good news to some.  Being done with the retail shipping allows the team to now focus on nothing but optimizing.  There is no correlation between the 10TH drop we saw over the weekend and the august orders - another point Jared makes very clearly to those who take the time to read the post.
We are hashing internally at 65TH as I write this.  Pool shows 60TH - this can be stats lag, or this can be due to software.

[iCEBREAKER]

Hi guys,

Just want to give you an update from the floor.

1. We have a lot of hashpower deployed now- should keep us above 50TH.  More M-boards arrived, which should enable us to ship out the remainder of August customer orders.
2. A lot of the issues we are encountering now are software based- my domain.  I've ramped up to full time starting Monday of this week, so this should start getting better fast.
3. The bitfury devices are very finicky.  We can lose over 10TH without any devices going offline.  Rest assured that we aren't removing hardware and getting this smoothed over is our absolute highest priority.
4. Per 3, there is a huge amount of room for us to gain in performance without even adding hardware now.  I can't say how fast it will happen because software bugs & issues can be completely random on the resolution time, but it will come with fits and starts.

Thanks,
Jared

Not to be rude, but as 100th investor, I can care less about the August costumers, matter of fact, that's almost like slap in a face.  This is how I read your post.

"Good news, August costumers (whoever they are) will make ROI.
Bad News, 100TH investors loose another 10TH. But instead of deploying new hardware and optimizing later, we will optimize what we got at a risk of more downtime."

Jared refers to the remainder of August starter kits that needed to ship out.  It amounts to less than 1TH.  Some 100TH investors are also owners, so its good news to some.  Being done with the retail shipping allows the team to now focus on nothing but optimizing.  There is no correlation between the 10TH drop we saw over the weekend and the august orders - another point Jared makes very clearly to those who take the time to read the post.
We are hashing internally at 65TH as I write this.  Pool shows 60TH - this can be stats lag, or this can be due to software.

thx for the update.  The good news helps us who have had their buzz killed on picostocks.   

[Andrey]

Jared refers to the remainder of August starter kits that needed to ship out.  It amounts to less than 1TH.  Some 100TH investors are also owners, so its good news to some.  Being done with the retail shipping allows the team to now focus on nothing but optimizing.  There is no correlation between the 10TH drop we saw over the weekend and the august orders - another point Jared makes very clearly to those who take the time to read the post.
We are hashing internally at 65TH as I write this.  Pool shows 60TH - this can be stats lag, or this can be due to software.

So, it seems now hashrate goes up. Its very good news. 100+THs next week?

[Dexter770221]

91 blocks found by a mine so far. It would be nice to see 100 blocks and 100TH in this week.